on dnew Technology foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methodst that was held in Seville on 13 14 may 2004,
In addition, the idea was to analyse possible overlapping fields of practice among technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, and assessment.
It was suggested that maybe technology foresight could learn something from the past 20 30 years in socioeconomic study of science and technology,
and on how the utility of outcomes can impact the different forms of FTA (i e. technology foresight, technology assessment, technology forecasting, technology and product roadmapping).
Technology foresight; Adaptive planning; Real options; Scenario planning; Neo-Schumpeterian economics; Evolutionary economics; Social studies of technology; Policy strategy Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 Corresponding author.
Technology foresight is an obvious case simply from the name, as is adaptive planning although that term is much less well established
Historically this trend is linked to the adoption of the term‘technology foresight'as 2 For a typology to systematise foresight approaches,
The even more traditional technology foresight standpoint developed from a more linear understanding of innovation does handle many of the challenges we discuss excellently (using best expert knowledge,
the FOREN guide 17 and the UNIDO Technology foresight Manual 18.468 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 2
or the project leader of the Swedish national technology foresight (a consortium consisting of several governmental, industry and labour organisations),
current trends, the state of play and perspectives S&t intelligence for policy-making processes, Research report, IPTS/ESTO, Sevilla, 2001.5 R. Barré, Synthesis of technology foresight, in:
A Practical Guide to Regional foresight, FOREN final report, IPTS, Sevilla, 2001.18 UNIDO (Ed.),Technology foresight Manual. vol. 1 & 2, UNIDO, Vienna, 2005.19 E
2000.33 E. A. Eriksson, M. Stenström, Scenarier för Teknisk Framsyn Scenarios for the Swedish Technology foresight, Swedish Technology foresight Report, Stockholm, 1999.34 P. Wagner
special issue on technology foresight in press. 494 V. Brummer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 4 TFAMWG Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology futures analysis:
Res. 181 (3)( 2007) 1488 1505.11 R. Barré, Synthesis of technology foresight, in strategic policy intelligence: current trends, the state of play and perspectives, in:
Ahti Salo (M. Sc. 1987, D. Tech. 1992) is Professor at the Systems analysis Laboratory with research interests in decision analysis, decision support systems, technology foresight, and risk management.
and technology foresight exercises as instruments for governments, but also national research agencies and businesses, in their efforts to cope with the increasing complexity of new technologies and decision environments, in an increased techno-economic competition worldwide 9. Since the 1990s,
whereas traditional technology foresight studies look for new promising fields in science and technology or new trends or needs in the market.
and business developments taken from the Seventh Japanese Technology foresight Report 48, already published in 2001, with regard to their expected time of realisation, their importance, the effectiveness of policy measures, like R&d support,
and technology foresights focusing both on active researchers and stakeholders responsible for shaping and performing R&d programmes.
Again in contrast to traditional science and technology foresight exercises representatives from companies, especially those involved in regulatory affairs
, Comparing Technology Forecast Surveys, Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg, 1994.48 Science and Technology foresight Center (NISTEP), The Seventh Technoloy Forecast Future technology in Japan toward the Year 2030, No. 72
Since more than ten years he is conducting studies both in the area of technology foresight, but also in the fields of standards, regulation and intellectual property rights on behalf of the European commission and Ministries in Germany and other countries. 516 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516
Manag. 46 (2 march April 2003) 31 40.4 D. Barker, David J. H. Smith, Technology foresight using roadmaps, Long Range Plan. 28 (2
The evaluation of the second round of the Swedish Technology foresight initiative 6 found that indirect effects on foresight capabilities were marked more than the anticipated impacts of foresight results on policy-making.
It was a technology foresight exercise explicitly aimed at the industry and education ministries and their agencies.
‘Futur the German research dialogue',Research Evaluation 13 (3)( 2004) 143 153.3 R. Barre, Synthesis of technology foresight, in:
An Evaluation of the Second Round of Swedish Technology foresight, Teknisk Framsyn, 2002 2004,2005. 7 J. Cassingena Harper, L. Georghiou, The targeted and unforeseen impacts of foresight on innovation policy:
His academic interests are in economics of innovation theory and practice of innovation policy, and technology foresight. In 1997 2000 he was Programme Director of TEP, the Hungarian technology foresight programme.
he was Director of S&t Foresight for the Office of the National science Advisor to the Prime minister of Canada and Leader of the Office of Technology foresight for the National research council of Canada.
She was the leader of the VTT Technology foresight and Technology assessment in 1999 2008 being also the Deputy Technology manager of the knowledge center since 2007.
Yet, in particular Technology foresight has often been restricted to identifying future context conditions in order to scrutinize the robustness of specific strategies
Relative to Technology foresight, we emphasize the implementation side of socio-technical systems, i e. we want to analyze under which conditions the receptiveness for innovative solutions could be increased,
Change 75 (4)( 2008) 462 482.8 A. Salo, K. Cuhls, Technology foresight past and future, J. Forecast. 22 (2 3)( 2003) 79 82.9 P
Human choice and climate change resources and technology, Battelle Press, Columbus, 1998.13 M. S. Jørgensen, U. Jørgensen, C. Clausen, The social shaping approach to technology foresight
The Handbook of Technology foresight. Concepts and Practice, E Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, 2008.19 C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, Positioning future-oriented technology analysis, in:
and its multidisciplinary technology foresight team, consisting of researchers with experience on foresight, technology assessment and risk assessment studies,
umbrella term for technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment 1. As noted in Könnölä et al. 2, the gradual paradigm shift in the innovation research
The Handbook of Technology foresight, PRIME Series on Research and Innovation policy, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, 2008.8 I. Nonaka, H. Takeutchi, The Knowledge-creating Company, Oxford university Press, New york, 1995.9
In 2007 she entered VTT's Technology foresight and technology assessment team. Dr. Annele Eerola is Senior Research scientist and Deputy Technology manager of the knowledge centre‘Organisations, Networks and Innovation systems'at VTT.
and Team Leader of Technology foresight and Technology assessment team at VTT. His research is focused on technology foresight, technological transformation of societies, innovation systems and economic geography.
He holds a Phd in human geography from the University of Turku, Finland. Dr. Sirkku Kivisaari works as Senior Research scientist in VTT.
Jouko Myllyoja is Research scientist in Technology foresight and Technology assessment team at VTT. His main focuses of interests are commercializing environmental technologies and sustainable development.
Her main research interests concern technology foresight, service research and sustainable development. 1176 R. Koivisto et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176
and Team Leader of Technology foresight and Technology assessment team at VTT. His research is focused on technology foresight
technological transformation of societies, innovation systems and economic geography. He holds a Phd in human geography from the University of Turku, Finland.
The process was considered to be the major approach of a German ministry in science and technology foresight.
and technology foresight processes on a national level 13,16, 17,28, 29. Even as follow-up of the High-tech Strategy of the government 2, administrated in the same ministry,
Berlin 2006.3 K. Cuhls, Methoden der Technikvorausschau-eine internationale Übersicht, IRB, Stuttgart, 2008.4 Science and Technology foresight Center, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports
National Institute of Science and Technology policy (NISTEP (Ed.),Kagakugijutsu no chûchôki hatten ni kakawaru fukanteki yosoku chôsa (The 8th Science and Technology foresight Survey Future science and Technology
in Japan, Delphi Report) Report no. 97, NISTEP, Tôkyô, 2005.5 Science and Technology foresight Center, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), in:
National Institute of Science and Technology policy (NISTEP (Ed.),Kyûsoku ni hattenshitsutsu aru kenkyû ryûiki chôsa (The 8th Science and Technology foresight Survey Study on Rapidlydevellopin Research area
) Report no. 95, NISTEP, Tôkyô, 2005.6 Science and Technology foresight Center, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), in:
National Institute of Science and Technology policy (NISTEP (Ed.),Kagakugijutsu no chûchôki hatten ni kakawaru fukanteki yosoku chôsa (The 8th Science and Technology foresight Survey, Needs Survey
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 22 P. Warnke, G. Heimeriks, Technology foresight as innovation policy instrument:
L. Georghiou (Ed.),The Handbook of Technology foresight, Concepts and Practice, PRIME Series on Research and Innovation policy, 2008, pp. 131 152.29 K. Cuhls, K. Blind, Knut
new foresight on science and technology, Technology, Innovation and Policy, Series of the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research ISI no. 13, Physica, Heidelberg, 2002.30 Science and Technology foresight Center, Ministry
The Handbook of Technology foresight, Concepts and Practice, PRIME Series on Research and Innovation policy, 2008.32 S. Kuhlmann, et al.
these fields should be amenable to inclusivity in technology foresight studies. In field 4 the situation becomes increasingly incomprehensible to the polity in general and in many senses to scientists too.
the Futur process, Second International Conference on Technology foresight Tokyo, 27 28,february 2003. 3 D. Loveridge, P. Street, Inclusive foresight, Foresight:
Essays on Power, Technology and Domination, Routledge, London, 1991, pp. 132 161.23 B. de Laat, Scripts for the future technological foresight, strategic analysis and socio technical networks:
and immediate impacts of a recently completed two-year national technology foresight exercise conducted in Luxembourg. The paper covers the evolution of the foresight exercise over its two-year life span,
Hence, many countries have initiated technology foresight exercises and other activities for prioritising strategic research. Sociologists have noted this development,
and discussed them in light of, for example, technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment (Martino 1983; Millet and Honton 1991.
His main areas of research are technology foresight, strategy in science and innovation, technological innovation, the interaction between industry and science,
In The approach to and the potential for new technology foresight, The Proceedings of an International Conference on Technology foresight, Tokyo, Japan. http://www. nistep. go. jp/achiev/ftx/eng/mat077e/html/mat077oe
Technology foresight in companies: from an indicator to a network and process perspective. Technology analysis & Strategic management 13, no. 4: 533 53.
research system 1. Introduction In 2005, Luxembourg began to embark upon a‘national'technology foresight exercise, with the primary aim of identifying newresearch domains for the National research Fund (FNR) to support*Corresponding author.
An important attraction of technology foresight has been its promise to make such processes more explicit, and, by extension
Notes 1. As part of the general interest in technology foresight many small countries have also set up
Technology foresight in smaller countries. In The handbook of technology foresight, eds. L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena-Harper, M. Keenan,
I. Miles, and R. Popper, 216 36. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. FNR. 2006. FNR Foresight Baseline Report.
Evaluating national technology foresight exercises. Technological forecasting and Social Change 73: 761 77. Glod, F.,C. Duprel,
In The handbook of technology foresight, eds. L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena. Harper, M. Keenan, I. Miles,
Experiences and practices of technology foresight in the European region. In Proceedings of the Foresight Summit, Budapest, 27 29 september 2007.
what Loveridge and Street (2005,32) discuss as‘inclusivity in technology foresight studies'in which‘experts and non-experts regard each other as equal
Paper presennte at the proceedings of international conference on Technology foresight the approach to and potential for new technology foresight.
The handbook of technology foresight: concepts and practice. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Gertler, M. S, . and D. A. Wolfe. 2004.
Using expert and stakeholder panels in technology foresight principles and practice. Foresight Methodoloogie 45 59. UNIDO. http://www. tc. cz/dokums publikace/tf-course-textbook-unido 1085 11. pdf (accessed September 2009.
Technology foresight; Technology management; Rapid technology analyses; Tech mining; Text mining; Knowledge discovery in databases 1. Introduction How long does it take to provide a particular Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA?
Technology foresight Quick tech mining can help participants grasp the scope of technology development efforts. Access to results in interactive mode (e g.,
Twelve lessons drawn from‘Key technologies 2005',The french technology foresight exercise. Journal of Forecasting 22, nos. 2 3: 161 77.
Technological foresight and Social Change 73, no. 7: 761 77. Havas, A. 2003. Evolving foresight in a small transition economy.
Incentives in technology foresight. International Journal of Technology management 21, no. 7: 694 710. Salo, A, . and O. Kuusi. 2001.
and merging empirical/analytical methods with stakeholder engagement processes 5. The positioning was aimed at perceived overlapping fields of practice among technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, and assessment.
The Handbook of Technology foresight: Concepts and Practice, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, pp. 24 43.9 F. Scapolo, A l. Porter, M. Rader, Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA:
The Handbook of Technology foresight: Concepts and Practice, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. Cheltenham, UK; Northampton, MA, USA, 2008.3 R. Barre',Synthesis of Technology foresight, in:
A. Tu bke, K. Ducatel, J. Gavigan, P. Moncada-Paterno-Castello (Eds. Strategic policy Intelligence: Current Trends, The State of Play and Perspectives, S&t Intelligence for Policy-making processes, European commission EUR 20137 EN, Sevilla, 2001.4 L. Georghiou, Third Generation Foresight Integrating
an analytical framework and key issues for research, Energy Policy 28 (9)( 2000) 625 640.32 A. Salo, T. Gustafsson, R. Ramanathan, Multicriteria methods for Technology foresight, Journal
the UK experience, Journal of Forecasting 22 (2 3)( 2003) 129 160.34 B. R. Martin, R. Johnston, Technology foresight for Wiring up the National Innovation system.
and helped to shape the international understanding of the function of technology foresight as having a role in priority setting 2. It remains a key application for large Delphi exercises as witnessed by the recent Chinese survey 3. Foresight is used also to inform
In the planning for the first UK Technology foresight Programme this system was articulated further to introduce the dimensions of cost and timescale 13.
as shown above, the first UK Technology foresight Programme had evolving objectives which gradually shifted their stress from straightforward priorities to an emphasis upon network building on the industry-academic nexus. New priorities can themselves have structural implications;
For example the Romanian Science and Technology foresight 2005 sought to reconstruct the RDI system around long-term perspectives.
The Handbook of Technology foresight: Concepts and Practice, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, pp. 170 183.3 R. Mu, Z. Ren, S. Yuan, Y. Quiao, Technology foresight towards 2020 in China:
the practice and its impacts, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 287 307.4 B. R. Martin, R. Johnston, Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system a review of recent
government exercises, Technological forecasting and Social Change 60 (1)( 1999) 37 54 (18pp..5 J. Gavigan et al.
Klusacek, Technology foresight in the Czech republic, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 1 (1 2)( 2004) 89 105.10 K. Klusacek, Key technologies for the Czech National research Programme, in:
Paper Presented at the UNIDO Technology foresight Summit, September, Budapest, 2007.11 T. L. Saaty, The Analytical Hierarchy Process, Mcgraw hill, New york, 1980.12 Office of Science and Technology and PREST
London, May 1993.13 SQW/PREST 1994 Prioritisation Criteria, A Paper to the UK Technology foresight Steering Group. 14 M. Keenan, Identifying generic technologies at the national level:
The Handbook of Technology foresight: Concepts and Practice, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, pp. 112 130.19 P. Crehan, J. Cassingena Harper, Foresight in smaller countries, in:
The Handbook of Technology foresight: Concepts and Practice, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, pp. 216 236.20 A. Havas, M. Keenan, Foresight in CEE countries, in:
The Handbook of Technology foresight: Concepts and Practice, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, pp. 287 318.21 A. Sokolov, Identification of national S&t priorities areas with respect to the promotion of innovation and economic growth:
A First Overview, Commission of the European communities, EUR 20921, October 2002, p. 10.30 L. Georghiou, The UK Technology foresight Programme, Futures 28 (4)( 1996) 361.31
, G. Heimeriks, Technology foresight as innovation policy instrument learning from science and technology studies, in: C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barre'(Eds.
Policy recommendations were validated thought interviews of about twenty experts in ICT or environmental policy The 8th Japanese technology foresight program Informative Understanding future S&t challenges.
Instrumental The 8th Japanese technology foresight program aims to provide necessary information for making the 3rd S&t basic plan of Japan.
Consensual The 8th Japanese technology foresight program consists of consensual Delphi survey, scenario, bibliometrics and needs analyses.
Fixed The methodology for the 8th Japanese technology foresight program is fixed at the beginning of the project, including: Delphi, Scenario, bibliometrics,
and the priority setting of science and technology based on technology foresight. Extensive There was an extensive engagement of diversified stakeholders from government, academia and industry.
The Revision 3rd Korean technology foresight Informative S&t developments Instrumental The‘‘Revision of 3rd Korean TF''aims to strength the linkage between the foresight and policy-making
National Technology foresight in China Informative Understanding future S&t developments and needs. NTFC aims to provide also necessary information for making five-year plan of science & technology development.
Technology foresight towards 2020 in China Informative TF2020 aims to provide necessary information for making long term strategy for science and technology development in China,
National Technology foresight in China and Technology foresight towards 2020 in China as well as National Technology roadmap in Korea were all strongly informative processes that were initiated to capture experts'views on future S&t challenges Hence,
In practice, the technology foresight in Korea and China has borrowed lots of experiences from technology foresight projects in Japan. 3. 3. Priorities foresight (consensual perspectives
and has completed 8 times technology foresight activities since 1970.6 FTA projects in China in broad sense can be traced to‘‘The 12 Years Science Development Planning''made in 1956,
The outcomes of consensual and instrumental technology foresight activities in Asian countries such as Japan, Korea and China have played increasingly important role in the policy-making process for science & technology and innovation.
the 8th technology foresight provided important support for making the 3rd basic plan for science and technology of Japan.
reflections from a hydrogen foresight project, Journal of Cleaner Production 15 (2007) 259 265.4 L. Georghiou, The UK technology foresight programme, Futures 28 (4)( 1996) 359
A Guide to Futures research, Sage, Beverly hills, 1983.12 R. Barre',Synthesis of technology foresight, in Strategic policy Intelligence:
Paper Presented at the Proceedings of International Conference on‘Technology foresight, Science and Technology'foresight Center of NISTEP, Tokyo, Japan, 2001.27 A. Havas,
FTA's subfields include technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment, and of course futures research with its emphasis on explicating long-term alternative development prospects.
and he actually specifies technology foresight, but the argument remains the same when we replace TF with FTA.
The Handbook of Technology foresight, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, 2008.7 I. Miles, J. Cassingena Harper, L. Georghiou, M. Keenan, R. Popper, The Many Faces of Foresight, in:
The Handbook of Technology foresight, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, 2008.8 A. Weinberg, Science and trans science, Minerva 10 (2)( 1972) 209 222.9 A. Horton, Foresight how to do simply and successfully, Foresight
The Handbook of Technology foresight, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, 2008.11 J. F. Coates, J. B. Mahaffie, A. Hines, 2025:
. Jorgensen, Technology foresight in the nordic countries, A Report to the Nordic Industrial Fund, Oslo, Center for Innovation and Commercial Development, Risoe-R-1362 (EN),
The Handbook of Technology foresight, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, 2008.12 Quoted from http://ec. europa. eu/research/fp6/ssp/swami en. htm,
The Handbook of Technology foresight, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, 2008.24 R. Koivisto, N. Wessberg, A. Eerola, T. Ahlqvist, S. Kivisaari, J. Myllyoja, M. Halonen
A Fantasy of Love and Discord, Secker and Warburg, London, 1944.31 C. Warden, An application of some knowledge management concepts in foresight, Technology foresight for Organizers, 2007, Module 1:
Training Programme on Technology foresight, UNIDO Regional Initiative on Technology foresight for Central and Eastern europe and the Newly Independent States, Gebze, Turkey, 19 23 november 2007.32 K. E. Weick, Sensemaking in Organizations
The Handbook of Technology foresight, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, 2008.38 M. Alavi, D. E. Leidner, Review:
I. 2008), The Handbook of Technology foresight: Concepts and Practice, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, pp. 3-23.
Her expertise is concerned with futures research, sustainable development, technology foresight, energy and environment, and the future of communities.
and in some cases shape technological futures 2. It was used first by the European commission's (EC) Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) as a common umbrella term for technology foresight
has provided a common place and platform where various communities dealing with different aspects of future envisioning (such as technology foresight,
As Johnston (2008) noted, the objective of the first of these seminars‘‘was to analyse possible overlapping fields of practice between technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, and assessment.''
For a clarification on the differences and similarities among the wide array of terms, methods and approaches that are included in the umbrella term of FTA, such as technology forecasting, technology assessment, roadmapping, technology foresight,
Three eras of technology foresight, keynote speech. Fourth international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/documents/download/PRESENTATIONS/Keynotes/FTA%202011
Three eras of technology foresight. Technovation 31, nos. 2 3: 69 76. Ollila, J. 2011. The innovation policy challenge, keynote speech.
Technology foresight in companies: From an indicator to a network and process perspective. Technology analysis & Strategic management 13, no. 4: 533 53.
Incentives in technology foresight. International Journal of Technology management 21, nos. 7 8: 694 710. Schoen, A t. Könnölä, P. Warnke, R. Barré,
RTD K-2 Scientific and Technological foresight, Brussels: European commission. Bradleymackay, R, . and L a. Costanzo. 2009. Introduction.
Technology foresight in companies: From an indicator to a network and process perspective. Technology analysis & Strategic management 13, no. 4: 533 53.
The handbook of technology foresight. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 814 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge Gertler, M. S,
Technology foresight using roadmaps. Long Range Planning 28, no. 2: 21 8. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
Technology foresight: Types and methods. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 6, nos. 1/2/3: 36 45.
and Technology foresight in Japan A variety of methods have been adopted in alignment with the objectives of a project including extrapolative/normative methods or qualitative/quantitative methods.
The 9th Science and Technology foresight in Japan (see Figure 1) focuses on science and technology,
and technology foresight clearly should define an image of the future and show the framework Figure 6 Ratio of topics that are related to several scenarios PAGE 16 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 toward its realization.
Kanama, D.,Kondo, A. and Yokoo, Y. 2008),‘Development of technology foresight: integration of technology roadmapping and the Delphi method'',International Journal of Technology intelligence and Planning, Vol. 4 No. 2, pp. 184-200.
National Institute of Science and Technology policy (2010),‘The 9th Science and Technology foresight'',NISTEP Report No. 140-142, National Institute of Science and Technology policy, Tokyo.
Martin, B. R. and Johnston, R. 1999),‘Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system. Experiences in Britain, Australia and New zealand'',Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 60 No. 1, pp. 37-54.
Turkey's national technology foresight program: a contextualist analysis and discussion'',Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 74 No. 8, pp. 1374-93.
The prospects and problems of the natural resources sector constitute a major section in most national science and technology foresight studies.
National Institute of Science and Technology policy (2010),‘The 9th Science and Technology foresight Survey contribution of science and technology to future society.
Sokolov, A. 2008a),‘Science and technology foresight in Russia: results of a national Delphi'',3rd International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 16-17 october, Seville, Book of Abstracts.
United nations Industrial Development Organization (2007), Technology foresight Summit Workbook, United nations Industrial Development Organization, Budapest. University of Joensuu (2010),‘Foresight for the development of forest sector in Finland till 2020'',Future Forum on Forests of Finland.
I. and Popper, R. 2008), The Handbook of Technology foresight: Concepts and Practice, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.
Originality/value The integrative method in this research provides a way to combine both the advantage of strategic technology foresight
Keywords Strategic technology foresight, Competitive technology intelligence, Delphi topic analysis, International patent classification system, Sustainable energy, Innovation, Forward planning Paper type Research paper 1
a combination of CTI and Strategic technology foresight (STF) was proposed recently by Calof and Smith (2010).
STF is derived from technology foresight and foresight, where the emphasis VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 55 is not only on the technologies of the future
''which is a large-scale technological foresight study that was designed to benchmark current information society technologies (ISTS) and develop strategies for future ISTS
I Basic information for scanned foresight reports from Japan, South korea and China Japan South korea China Report Title The 8th Science and Technology foresight Survey Delphi Analysis Prospect of future society
& future technology of Korea-challenges and opportunities (Korea 2030) China's Report of Technology foresight 2004 Report year 2005 2005 2004 Project promoter/initiator Ministry of Education
, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan The Ministry of Science and Technology of the Republic of korea Ministry of Science and Technology agency or organization responsible for the foresight activity Science and Technology foresight Center, National Institute
and Technology policy Research institute (STEPI) Technology foresight Research team, National research Center for Science and Technology for Development Time horizon 2035 2030 2020 Original category Energy and resources Energy
Also, the method combines both the advantage of strategic technology foresight and competitive technology intelligence, by utilizing the results derived from the former as a target for analysis
Gavigan, J. P. and Cahill, E. 1997),‘Overview of recent European and non-European national technology foresight studies'',Technical Report No.
Grupp, H. and Linstone, H. A. 1999),‘National technology foresight activities around the globe: resurrection and new paradigms'',Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 60 No. 1, pp. 85-94.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 3. Combining quantitative and qualitative approaches FTA is an umbrella term to denote several decision-preparatory tools (technology foresight,
His academic interests are in economics of innovation theory and practice of innovation policy, and technology foresight. In 1997 2000 he was the Programme Director of TEP, the Hungarian technology foresight programme.
Forecast. 17 (2010) 5 7. 12 H. A. Linstone, Three eras of technology foresight, keynote speech, in:
Accessed July 2012.13 H. A. Linstone, Three eras of technology foresight, Technovation 31 (2011) 69 76.14 I. Tuomi, Foresight in an unpredictable world, Technol.
The Handbook of Technology foresight: Concepts and Practice, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, 2008.17 A. Havas, D. Schartinger, M. Weber, The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making:
www. foresight-platform. eu/community/foresightguide/2010accessed August 2012.24 J. E. Smith, O. Saritas, Science and technology foresight baker's dozen:
The Handbook of Technology foresight, Concepts and Practicesedward Elgar, UK, 2008.37 C. S. Curran, J. Leker, Patent indicators for monitoring convergence examples from NFF and ICT, Technol.
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