the explicit inclusion of closed settings as part of foresight methodology is still uncommon among foresight practitioners, and not widely accepted among policy-makers, either.
Apart from foresight methodologies, his main research interests are in the governance of research and innovation systems, in the transformation of large socio-technical systems towards sustainability
to develop suitable foresight methodologies for international consultation processes, and to build knowledge on how such processes can be enacted best
In addition, we developed methodologies and approaches which represent revisions or adjustments of existing foresight methodologies, but also completely new approaches to identify ex ante major future challenges for regulatory policies.
Instead, we focus on those foresight methodologies for which we are able to provide original empirical evidence,
However, the sound experiences of the Japanese and German Delphi studies underline that foresight methodologies can be applied for the identification and setting priorities of future areas of regulation and therefore also of standardisation
Foresight methodologies including scenario, Delphi and even simulation approaches are rather costly and time-consuming, involving numerous experts.
Foresight methodologies can also be used to assess ex ante the impacts of just released, but even regulations and standards not yet existing.
The classical foresight methodologies enjoy a high acceptance, if they are performed in an adequate way. Nevertheless, there is a tendency to overburden certain approaches, like Delphi surveys,
especially in contexts that are otherwise rather averse with regard to innovation 8. Foresight methodologies should therefore not only inform the identification of future context conditions
In the next section, we lay the ground for combining strategic planning in infrastructures with foresight methodologies. Section 3 presents the procedural outlay of the Regional Infrastructure method and introduces concepts for addressing the trade-offs relative to context uncertainties, conflicts and sustainability deficits.
Foresight methodology Technology assessment Technology analysis Risk assessment Risk analysis Roadmapping 1. Introduction The practices in foresight, technology assessment and industrial risk assessment processes are in many ways parallel.
The nature of foresight methodologies varies from creative to the evidence based and from expertise to interaction based working methods.
Herein the foresight methodologies considering the possible changes in the society may be helpful. A major challenge is,
The holistic future-oriented technology assessment or foresight methodologies tend to assess and create the future simultaneously. The same idea belongs also to the holistic risk management where safety is created in the process by evolving the intrinsic safety potential of the process.
How does it fit into the recent developments in Foresight methodology, such as the concepts of adaptive and Embedded foresight,
Der Foresight-Prozess des BMBF, 2. Bericht an das BMBF, Auf der Suche, Karlsruhe, Stuttgart, 2009.11 K. Cuhls, Identification of priorities, Foresight methodologies
The COST A22 Action on Foresight methodologies and the appearance of several journals dedicated to this area are just a few indicators of this.
and Lau (2003), towards a new understanding of foresight methodology and practice (Fuller and De Smedt 2008).
According to the UNIDO textbook on Foresight methodologies‘expert panels should not stray into the realms of wishful thinking their analyses
Modernisation of foresight methodology: reflexivity and the social construction of knowledge, a note to authors in COSTA22.
10.1016/j. futures. 2010.11.002 The first section of this paper presents the background of this new development concerning Foresight methodology and synthesises the need for a proper tailoring of Foresight.
Advancing Foresight methodologies funded by the European Science foundation; see: http://www. costa22. org/./8 Forsociety was one of the Era nets in the FP6.
Many exercises have an explicit goal of developing foresight methodologies or the capacity to use those methodologies and this forms the next grouping.
1 (1)( 1999) 5 9. 10 R. Popper, Foresight methodology, in: L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, M. Keenan,
and strengthen those policies VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 301 Foresight methodology Foresight techniques need to be developed to embrace emergence to harness the self-organised behaviour that results from interactions between the parts of a complex system rather than
Concerning the application of foresight methodologies used in this kind of work the statements of evaluation are encouraging.
The paper thus underlines that foresight methodologies can be applied for identifying and prioritizing the future areas of regulation. 6. These were the cases of the future-oriented technology assessment exercises conducted during the period 1974-1995 by the US Office of Technology assessment (OTA).
Saritas, O. 2011),‘Systemic foresight methodology'',paper presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, Seville.
2006) 4), transformational narratives5 and Integral Foresight methodologies. The latter introduces Integral Philosophy into foresight, based on the argument that the answers required today cannot,
and strategy making with particular emphasis upon Foresight methodologies and their implementation in science, technology and social fields.
His main research fields are foresight methodologies and strategic management of technology and innovation. He has presented on these themes at international conferences
Therefoore the emerging culture of strategy roadmapping should not be viewed as a‘pure'foresight methodology, but more as a hybrid of foresight and organisational strategy crafting.
This foresight methodology consisted of various expert techniques (surveys interviews, workshops), and analytical research. All in all, 50 in depth interviews, two expert surveys and over 20 workshops were held to prepare this national foresight.
and strategy making with particular emphasis upon foresight methodologies and their implementation in socioeconomic and technological fields at the supranational, national, regional and sectoral levels. 385 C. Cagnin et al./
Change 77 (2010) 1037 1050.36 R. Popper, Foresight methodology, in: L. Georghiou, J. C. Harper, M. Keenan,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 Fabiana Scapolo holds a Phd on foresight methodologies and practices from the Manchester University (UK).
Thus through trial-and-error and learning-by-doing 1 The Cost Action A22 network was a four year program (2004 2007) entitled Foresight methodologies Exploring new ways to explore the future and funded by the Individuals, Societies, Culture
Prospects and Scenarios 4, European Environment Agency (EEA), Copenhagen, Denmark, 2000.3 T. Fuller, P. De Smedt, D. Rothman, Advancing foresight methodology through networked conversation, in:
and findings of the project and discuss in particular the implications for foresight methodology. We argue that all four innovative methodological features contributed in a specific way to opening up new perspectives on the future of innovation
Vision Structural transformation Inductive approach Foresight methodology Innovation pattern Visualisation Scenarios Weak signals 1. Introduction Envisioning structural transformation in foresight exercises is challenging.
foresight methodology needs to be developed further. Wewould like to highlight some of the aspects of the INFU experience that seemto be of particular relevance to be explored further by foresight practitioners
We feel that this kind of approach holds a considerable potential for complementing established foresight methodology and that this potential is only just at the beginning of being exploited.
Her research focuses on Foresight methodology and the mutual shaping of technology and society. 466 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466
Societies with lower power distance might be more likely favour interaction (citizen consultation) based foresight methodologies
In high power distance societies, we could expect expertise and evidence based foresight methodologies, such as Expert Panels, Interviews, Modelling and Literature reviews.
brought our attention to Hall and Soskice's book Varieties of Capitalism and Saritas'paper on Systemic Foresight methodology.
navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (May 4))(2008) 462 482.6 O. Saritas, Systemic foresight methodology, in:
She holds a Phd from PREST, University of Manchester united Kingdom) on Prospective and Foresight methodologies and she has a degree on Political sciences from the University of Milan (Italy.
and applying foresight methodologies in the EU. He has a masters degree in business economics and in marketing,
Foresight methodology. In The Handbook of Technology foresight: Concepts and Practices, L Georghiou, J C Harper, M Keenan,
The addition of a scenario process emerged at that point as a necessary new building block to our adaptiiv foresight methodology.
A review of the literature reveals much in the way of foresight methodology and the rationale for foresight but little about the factors that lead to foresight success. As will be reported later in this paper, even the concept of
Thus, they brought intelligeenc and foresight methodologies to the table. APEC Center for Technology foresight in Thailaan has had its strategy planning
Popper, R. 2008)‘ Foresight methodology'.'In: Georgiou, L.,Harper, J. C.,Keenan, M.,Miles, I. and Popper, R. eds) The Handbook of Technology foresight:
Giaoutzi, M. and Sapio, B. eds) Recent developments in Foresight methodologies. New york: Springer verlag. Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 221
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