Despite the availability of a number of foresight methods, there is a scope and a need to look for further methodological improvements towards regulatory foresights focusing on future strategies and actions concerning regulation and the special needs of regulatory bodies.
we want to build on foresight methods for improving strategic decision making in infrastructures through the method of Regional infrastructure foresight RIF.
a more elaborate and open approach to strategic planning seems very timely. 2. 2. Foresight supporting infrastructure planning Foresight methods have been developed over the past decades to explicitly address substantial uncertainties in technology development.
How are selected foresight methods? Foresight 10 (6)( 2008) 62 89.59 M. Rask, Foresight balancing between increasing variety and productive convergence, Technol.
abstract level strategic design goes towards foresight methods and concrete level case studies follow the technical risk assessment tradition. 4. Towards an integrated approach 4. 1. Risk assessment
Foresight methods and activities approve the uncertainty linked to the different futures and take also the different pathways to the possible futures.
and CES) show that it is not easy to integrate systematic risk assessment and foresight methods. In IRRIIS project the results show that risk assessment methods are too detailed for analysing loosely constructed scenarios.
and Signpost foresight methods were integrated in the risk assessment process. Risk analysis methods and climate change scenarios were integrated. How case studies contributed to risk management methodology?
and journal articles have provided lists of foresight methods and discussed them in light of, for example, technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment (Martino 1983;
Foresight methods preferred under this approach focus on key actors and their viewpoints, for example stakeholder analyses and Delphi studies.
however, differs from other foresight methods, such as scenario planning. 4 In foresight literature visioning is part of a more complex process,
The challenge of foresight methods and participatory processes for governance, however, is the prevailing clear distinction between areas of governance,
However, since foresight methods and practices are always part of an organisational setting, local, sectorial, regional or otherwise,
Beyond this if we expand the vision to innovation policy the focus is very much upon using foresight methods to achieve alignment of the principal stakeholders around an agenda for the future.
Using some combination of foresight methods ideas are generated and filtered until a list exists that may be subject to prioritisation.
which are addressed often as strengths of many foresight methods and approaches. It may often be appropriate to design a foresight process as informative
foresight methods represent an emerging approach that works with few technical constraints and shows an increased adaptability to environmental changes.
Foresight methods are spreading progressively and are becoming a decisive element in many planning exercises. As a matter of fact, in the last few years territorial foresight has gathered increasing attention from various European public bodies.
urban planners tend to focus on forecasting tools, disregarding most foresight methods as frivolous exercises. In fact, our literature review has detected not specific
First, the foresight method appears to be user-friendly for regional and local decision makers and quite manageable for technicians.
Therefore, a foresight method like the one proposed here should not lose its eminent qualitative nature. Fourth, this exercise elicits the potential for using foresight as a powerful tool for the dissemination of territorial knowledge and the establishment of expert networks,
the present research lays the foundations for the integration of foresight methods with urban planning processes in order to achieve a more sustainable development model.
Therefore, foresight methods represent an emerging approach that works with few technical constraints and shows an increased adaptability to environmental changes.
and risk, neglecting as a consequence the use of forecasting techniques, foresight methods and technology assessment procedures.
the application of foresight methods and tools to Law should be as scientifically-sound as possible.
(and therefore enacted) due to the scientific foresight method employed, or on the contrary would the foresight method be legitimised because of its coupling with the enactment of a specific law?
Here we might encounter an interesting (and ultimately) dangerous mix between Law and Science, with the crafting of odd notions as‘‘science-based law''or‘‘legally-based science''!
How are selected foresight methods. Foresight 10, no. 6: 62 89. Popper, Sir K. 1957. The poverty of historicism.
and policymakking the active exploration of the future is by no means a privilege of foresight methods. Anticipation occurs in many more domains, in particular, in areas of science and technology,
and the review article of Porter (2004) lists the nine families of foresight methods including quantitative and qualitative explorations and forms of stakeholder involvement.
These kinds of future manuscripts could also be produced with other narrative foresight methods, such as scenarios or‘genius forecasting'.
Modularisation also makes space for the combination of different foresight methods (Ahlqvist et al. 2007a, 2007b; Ahola et al. 2010.
This idea of a roadmap as a crystallised strategy chart separates roadmapping from other‘generic'foresight methods, such as Delphi or scenario processes.
) Meta-analysis on foresight methods shows the trends of combination (Popper, 2008: B scenario is used often with literature review, expert panel,
converging technology society'',National science Foundation, Arlington, VA. Popper, R. 2008),‘How are selected foresight methods?''''Foresight, Vol. 10 No. 6, pp. 62-89.
Keywords Foresight Grand challenges, Research and innovation policy, Research prioritization, Forward planning, Innovation, Ireland Paper type Case study 1. Introduction Foresight methods have been used widely around the world to enable the research
Popper, R. 2008),‘How are selected foresight methods'',Foresight, Vol. 10 No. 6, pp. 62-89. Popper, R. 2009),‘Mapping foresight:
and radical innovations via 5 The European foresight monitoring Network is one of the few attempts to take stock of quantitative and qualitative foresight methods.
The implication for foresight methods is that network analysis can introduce a‘systemic'perspective emphasising relationships between actors,
a pocket primer of comparative and combined foresight methods, Foresight 13 (2)( 2011) 79 96.25 R. Popper, How are selected foresight methods, Foresight 10 (6)( 2008) 62 89.26 In:
Market Manage. 21 (1)( 1992) 23 31.36 E. Hajime, The suitability of technology forecasting/foresight methods for decision systems and strategy:
Sustainability is another realm where the need for foresight methods that are able to unlock the potential for paradigmatic change rather than just highlighting incremental improvements along current trajectories is strongly emerging.
the use of longer-term planning tools such as foresight in general, the selection of foresight methods, and the inclusion of experts and citizens.
and companies in Denmark support the initiation of participatory consensus approaches 2. 4. National styles in foresight and foresight methods In a recent paper,
which suggests a taxonomy for foresight methods 26. Popper suggests that foresight methods can be characterised by their ability to gather
or process information, based on four abilities: evidence, expertise, interaction and creativity, or combinations of these abilities.
Expert Panels and to some extent Delphi surveys are examples of foresight methods that have a high content of expertise.
Futures workshops and citizens panels are examples of foresight methods that have high interaction content. Finally
According to Popper, most foresight methods comprise a mix of several of the four abilities. As the practical use of foresight methods varies significantly from case to case,
such a categorisation of methods must be considered as only indicative. See Fig. 2 in Section 4. 3. One of the clearest observations in Keenan
and Popper's analysis of regional styles in the use of foresight methods is oriented that interaction methods,
L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 9 common use in South Europe and South america and totally absent among the top 10 foresight methods in Northwest Europe and North america.
Expertiseinteractioncreativ ityevidenc eexpe rt pan elsexpe rt pap ersdialogu e meeting sindicatorsconferencesfactshee tsuserpan elsworkshopshorizon scann ing Fig. 2. Foresight methods used in the two cases:
Due to the experimental nature of the programme, a range or foresight methods were tested during the eleven projects.
In the latter case, the focus is on the inclusion of and interaction with the wider public and not on expertise-oriented types of foresight methods. 4. Two cases:
or as having used foresight methods. Nevertheless, the Globalisation Council's process included both expertiseorieente foresight methods (expert panels, expert discussion papers), evidence-oriented foresight methods (indicators and fact reports) and interaction-oriented foresight methods
(conferences, workshops, stakeholder inclusion. The Research2015 process included foresight methods such as horizon scanning, expert panels, user panels, dialogue meetings, conferences and workshops.
In Fig. 2, the foresight methods that were applied in the two cases are indicated using Popper's Diamond,
as described in Section 2. 4 in this paper. The two processes also show some traits that are expected for a country that has low uncertainty avoidance and low power distance.
Denmark in the Global economy, Working papers, vol. 18, International Center For Business and Politics, Copenhagen Business school, 2005.26 R. Popper, How are selected foresight methods?
Policy-makers who focus on long-term policy issues can use foresight methods during strategic policy-making processes to arrive at a better understanding of the future and its uncertainties
structured and applied in different ways by using various foresight methods (see, among other things, 1). In this article,
we focus on the use of foresight methods, with special attention to scenario analysis, which involves the exploration of alternative images of the future,
and experiences of local and national Dutch policymakker in applying foresight methods within the context of strategic policy processes.
Motives behind the selection of foresight methods, the timing involved in using insights from foresight studies in strategic policy-making processes, the added value of foresight methods,
that of policy-makers who have applied the results of foresight methods in policy-making processes. The insights presented in this paper are based on recent policy document analyses
What, according to policy-makers, is added the value of using foresight methods in strategic policy processes? Which levers and barriers do they perceive
when applying foresight methods in strategic policy processes? What are the similarities and differences in the application of foresight methods to strategic policy processes between the local and national level?
These research questions imply a clear focus on policy-making in the public domain (see, for example, 15) and on the perceptions of policy-makers,
However, he was involved not from within the national government in the development and implementation of foresight methods for policy formation.
However, the initial findings can already shed new light on the use of foresight methods and serve as a source of inspiration for new dialogues within the foresight research community. 3 Results The insights from the local
when using foresight methods for the first time, it can be difficult to find out how these methods relate to other methods with which they may be more familiar (such as SWOT-analyses,
By way of contrast, the national level inquiries showed that civil servants are relatively familiar with foresight methods, especially scenario analysis,
Especially at the national level, we see that foresight methods are performed in a participatory way, including external perspectives.
P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 21 When the main motive for using foresight methods is not necessarily a desire to realise a concrete policy end-product (such as an agenda, vision or strategy),
. What is added the value of using foresight methods in strategic policy processes according to policy-makers? To a large extent, the added value of using the foresight method as perceived by policy-makers at the local level is processrelaated Local policy-makers indicated that they saw the inter-sectoral approach as one of the main process-related benefits
of using foresight methods. By the look of things, this inter-sectoral approach is unlikely to be taken for granted within local governmental organisations.
The use of foresight studies stimulated mutual learning processes, allowing participants to learn from each other's perspectives on the future and providing them with a common foundation for future policies.
foresight methods stimulate the user to take future developments and changes into account in a structured way.
On the one hand, the long lead time of strategy processes makes the use of foresight methods necessary. On the other hand, this leads to a certain level of disappointment, due to a lack of short-term implications.
Which levers and barriers do policy-makers perceive in applying foresight methods to strategic policy processes? We tried to determine why foresight methods are used not to their full potential (as expressed, for example,
by 25) by exploring which levers and barriers were encountered by policy-makers involved in the in depth interviews. 3. 5. 1. Knowledge
and skills in the organisation An important barrier with respect to the decision to use foresight methods at all,
policy-makers who are inexperienced in the use of foresight methods may find it difficult to decide which type of scenarios to develop/use
results and added value of the foresight method for strategic policy-making, and facilitating the process of gaining support of policy-makers and politicians for the method and the results of the foresight process.
and communicate the foresight method and insights themselves. In all case studies, external organisations specialising in foresight assisted in developing
most significantly because of differences in the level of experience with foresight methods. At the local level, there is less experience with foresight methods:
thinking in terms of alternative futures and taking longer-run uncertainties into account is a rather new area of expertise that is still not broadly incorporated into the workings and cultures of local policy organisations.
process-oriented effects of using foresight methods were emphasised, while, at the national level, greater emphasis was placed on content-related issues.
The same is true for the different reasons for using foresight methods in strategic policy processes which may be explained by the fact that both organisational levels are related to each other from a governmental and political perspective.
At the same time, a spectrum of foresight methods can be applied to develop a better understanding of possible future developments of the systems under analysis 7. In this context
Moreover, other Foresight methods such as horizon scanning, scenarios, customer and technology trend analysis, and roadmapping are used commonly for the identification of technological opportunities and exploration of possible future markets in this respect.
The link is deepened through various studies that discuss foresight methods as means to embrace the open innovation paradigm.
Heger and Rohrbeck 39 describe the collaborative application of a set of foresight methods for exploration of new business fields,
Damrongchai et al. describe an appropriate mix of foresight methods that was applied in a research projeec of the Asia-pacific Economic cooperation aiming to better understand the complexity of emerging infectious diseases (EID.
and train over 300 senior government staff and managers in foresight methods so that at least a portion of the policy advisory system has had some exposure/familiarity to these methods Communications strategy:
This paper describes the conduct of this regional foresight project using a combination of foresight methods. Within the scope of existing and new technollog development to combat EID, the study proviide evidence of how the FTA can address societal issues and challenges,
The design, use and relevance of foresight methods in Hungary',Journal of Forecasting, 22: 179 203.
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