but it is made based on experiences by the authors over the past ten years in a number of European and national foresight and policy strategy processes.
Another experience that led the way towards Adaptive foresight was the use of scenario methodologies in the first Swedish National foresight exercise. 15 Based on these experiences
what follows. 15 For the methodological aspects of the first Swedish National foresight exercise, see Eriksson and Stenström 33.16 ICTRANS The Impact of ICT on Transport,
Indeed, despite the strong track-record of national foresights in many European countries, not much work has been done to clarify how foresight elements should be combined to enhance the coordination tools that are crucial to the establishment of the European research area.
the eforesee Malta case study, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 2 (1)( 2005) 84 103.8 L. Georghiou, M. Keenan, Evaluation of national foresight activities:
The methodology combination of a national foresight process in Germany Kerstin Cuhls a,, Amina Beyer-Kutzner b, Walter Ganz c, Philine Warnke d a Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research (ISI), Breslauer Str. 48,76139 Karlsruhe, Germany
& Social Change 2. Objectives of the national foresight process The BMBF itself in a call for tender formulated four specific targets.
In Finland, a national foresight reporting mechanism has been institutionalized, requiring the Prime ministers Office to release one report per electoral period addressing a range of long-term issues.
and innovation policy is one of the most important rationales for implementing national foresight activities. Important users of this type of foresight activity are often national research and innovation councils,
Evaluation of national foresight activities: assessing rationale, process and impact. Technological forecasting and Social Change 73: 761 77.
and many Asian and South american countries have conducted national foresight studies'.'2. See Cuhls (2003), Cuhls and Georghiou (2004),
the national foresight exercise of the Academy of Finland and the Finnish funding agency for technology and Innovation (Tekes), which served to inform albeit indirectly the development of the national strategy and the attendant implementation of several Strategic Centres of Excellence in Science and Technology.
Evaluation of national foresight activities: assessing rational, process and impact. Technological foresight and Social Change 73, no. 7: 761 77.
From this analysis we may conclude already that foresight has moved on from the type of objective setting that typified the large national foresight programmes of the 1990s.
''The FISTERA methodology inspired several national foresight projects, notably in Austria and Hungary. A review of FISTERA by NISTEP underlined the relevance of FISTERA's approach to formulate national science and technology policies also in Japan 24.
377.5 L. Georghiou, M. Keenan, Evaluation of national foresight activities, assessing rationale, process and impact. technological forecasting and social change, Technological forecasting and Social Change 73 (7)( 2005) 761 777.6 O. Da Costa, P. Warnke, C. Cagnin, F. Scapolo
We can see learning processes at work in the successive generations of several National foresight programmes. Often there have been extensive processes of reflection
National foresight programmes share these features of technocratic rationality, democratic deliberation, bureaucratic timetables, and political expediency, combining in an unholy melee, in common with many other policy initiatives.
One interesting phenomenon is the evolution of websites for National foresight programmes, as decisions are made about how to represent current activities
Originality/value This paper is a case study of combining outputs at the last stage of a national foresight exercise to identify areas where future innovation is expected.
All in all, 50 in depth interviews, two expert surveys and over 20 workshops were held to prepare this national foresight.
) In FISTERA, many national foresight exercise reports were scanned and important ISTS were listed and scouted. In Delphi Austria, an analysis of the Japanese, German, French, British Delphi studies was conducted to separate
Orwat, C. 2003),‘WP 1 Review and analysis of national foresight; D1. 1a Case study: Austria Delphi Austria'',FZK-ITAS Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe Gmbh in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft, Institut fu r Technikfolgenabscha tzung und Systemanalyse, available at:
This technique is used often in national foresights to guide innovation and national research policies 58 60. All the above describe approaches to futures thinking during which (potential) inputs for scenarios can be produced.
Some examples of national foresights are known to have experienced problems linked with a dominance of consensus see for instance 63.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 58 J. P. Gavigan, F. Scapolo, A comparison of national foresight exercises, Foresight 1 (1999) 495
K. Cuhls, A. Beyer-Kutzner, W. Ganz, P. Warnke, The methodology combination of a national foresight process in Germany, Technol.
The impact of national traditions and cultures on national foresight processes Per Dannemand Andersen*,Lauge Baungaard Rasmussen Department for Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Produktionstorvet 424,2800 Lyngby
which national foresight exercises are carried out. The paper is based on two Danish cases: The Danish Government's Globalisation Strategy, from 2005,
Some of the literature has suggested that a decisive context for national foresight exercises relates to the size of the country.
and industrial) culture's effect on national foresight exercises, and more narrowly, on priority setting in science, technology and innovation policies.
L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 15 5. Conclusion and perspectives This paper aims to contribute to the discussion of national cultures'effects on national foresight exercises.
national foresight exercises must be integrated better into the actual national policy making processes. We also proceeded from the perception that there is no one-size-fits-all'approach to national foresight exercises.
Context matters. Instead of using country size or a country's regional affiliation (such as Western europe or Asia),
and even more careful when planning cross-national foresight exercises. Even between culturally neighbouring countries, such as Denmark and Sweden, large differences exist in governance culture,
the precise added value is debated often among users of national foresight studies (i e.,, the civil servants at the different ministries.
The two studies of national foresight activities indicate that there is room for improvement especially when it comes to connecting national foresight studies to decision-making. 3. 5
. Which levers and barriers do policy-makers perceive in applying foresight methods to strategic policy processes? We tried to determine why foresight methods are used not to their full potential (as expressed, for example,
The analysis of the two national foresight studies also showed that, although the futures research processes are relatively transparent and rational in nature,
integrated foresight management model, Foresight 5 (2)( 2003) 33 45.4 A. Alsan, M. A. Oner, Comparison of national foresight studies by integrated foresight management model, Futures
N 2004, THE ERA NET FORSOCIETY1 began its mission to develop sustainable cooperation between national foresight programming bodies in 15 European countries.
and closely connected to the national foresight programme. In the Netherlaand the function started in connection to the foresiigh function
an International Perspecctiv on National foresight Studies. Paris: International council for science. Available at<http://www. icsu. org/Gestion/img/ICSU DOC DOWNLOAD/22 dd file spru07 02-Report. pdf>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
and working on the German National foresight Process. He has coordiinate a project on EPIS and several studies on ambient intelligence for the European commission.
it involves asking a series of strategic questions to national foresight expeert identified through global foresight networks,
economic or scientific impacts that you believe can be attributte to a national foresight program? Please review our proposed list of countries/individuals chosen for our direct survey.
and national foresight programs from the following countries responded to our first study: Forfas in Ireland;
What is the national foresight mandate? Who are the key clients of national foresight? What is the relationship of foresight to governmeen policy and economic decision-making structures?
What is the foresight funding model? What levels of resources has received foresight? How are allocated foresight resources?
interviiew with foresight practitioners, managers responnsibl for national foresight efforts in various countries, and; reviews of foresight project level summaries and overviews from the EFMN (part of the European foresight Knowledge sharing Platfoor which monitors
when starting its national foresight efforts? did need you to build a business case for foresiigh in your government?
What were the direct outcomes from your national foresight initiative?(novel policy initiative (s), greater public foresight awareness, increased networkking new programs, direct impact on the innovaatio infrastructure etc.
Is there an annual budget for a national foresight program or foresight support in your country? What amount?
How many full-time equivalent staff per year work in the national foresight program?(2007) Is financial support for foresight in your country stable,
The target audience for all national foresight exercises appeared to be broad in scope, with single exercises typically having multiple audiences.
Financial support for national foresight programs has been increasing or stable in all the countries that replied to the survey,
From the limited sample size, it is noticeable that Canada spends far less on national foresight efforts
and sub-national foresight exercises, followed by scenarios, analysis of trends and drivers and research priorities. There were also interesting differences observed.
it commissioned a meta-analysis of the results of several existing national foresight exercises with the aim of identifying future priority areas for international science cooperation (Teixera et al. 2002.
an International Perspective on National foresight Studies',review report to the ICSU Committee on Scientific Planning and Review Report.
horizon scanning activities have been applied at the national level to inform national foresight exercises, thus providing a more evidence-based approach to research and innovation policy (Georghiou 2007).
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