or the audience and the purpose addressed. 2 Common to many foresight exercises is the development of either different scenarios,
However, although only very few impact assessments of foresight exercises have been conducted so far, 6 their actual and traceable influence on decision-making seems to vary to a great extent.
and collaborators 11.5 Obviously, there are also certain types of foresight exercises that have a less pro-active intention by concentrating on the identification of future challenges
for instance in terms of deriving basic strategies for dealing with the opportunities and threats that have been identified in the context of foresight exercises.
While the optimism as regards the power of foresight exercises to actually shape innovation processes is founded at least in some qualitative evidence
Can we really trust the expectations raised in a foresight exercise? How can individual actors, and policy-makers in particular, actually protect themselves against the fallacies of false promises
and brought to the fore in a foresight exercise? Should we not be more precautionary when aiming at seemingly desirable scenarios?
A third main shortcoming of foresight relates to the impressionistic nature of many foresight exercises, where workshops and expert panels are taken as the main source of information for constructing scenarios.
what is applied in most current foresight exercises. 467 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 Finally it should be pointed out that this criticism against
presentation of AF can be found in 29.23 There may be situations where AF practitioners can give this type of support to several participants of a foresight exercise.
Over the past years, he has been contributing to and leading several foresight exercises at European, national, regional and sectoral level,
quite a number of major foresight exercises have been launched in many European countries 10,11. The majority of experts consider foresight essentially as a collective and consultative process,
Foresight exercises are ways of obtaining opinions about future developments. Foresight is different from prognosis or prediction.
In the context of policy-making, the most important intentions of foresight exercises are to find out changes in consumer preferences
Based on the tradition of regulatory impact assessments and foresight exercises, we define regulatory foresight as strategic activity undertaken by governments
and often part of larger foresight exercises driven by stakeholders of science and technology policies. Moreover national SDOS, including some in the USA
Delphi-based foresight exercises, therefore, were used repeatedly and increasingly in the context of policymakking building on their capacity to facilitate an alignment of actors'expectations through interactions. 3. 3. 2. Examples
we could identify only very few and not very systematic foresight exercises regarding future priorities for regulations and standards.
Aspects of regulatory foresights are included already partly in previous, more general foresight exercises. However, this dimension is compared underemphasised to the objective to identify future priorities for public R&d funding
such as with‘anticipatory tools'(foresight exercises, bibliometric analyses, scenario planning, etc); and tools for portfolio and project management. 519 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 The point we make is that technological uncertainty
i e. with the way in which foresight exercises are designed and implemented. These impacts typically fall in areas such as:
10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.02.003 The overall aim of the paper is to develop an impact assessment framework for foresight exercises that assesses the degree to
and assessment approach for foresight exercises has been developed to date. This is a consequence of the fact that most foresight activities,
The evolution of a common evaluation and assessment framework for foresight exercises however, could facilitate the identification of good practices irrespective of their specific objectives
and needs that foresight exercises typically try to address. Another level of reference is needed, i e. foresight exercises need to be assessed in terms of their contribution to the attainment of higher level, generic goals.
In this paper, we argue that one higher level of reference is offered by a commonly agreed goal amongst the EU Member States
and compare the performance of foresight exercises. In order for this to happen, however, the major characteristics of these two‘pillars'first have to be examined and understood.
which foresight exercises are implemented and the identification of many of the characteristics of emerging knowledge societies which foresight can affect in both anticipated and unanticipated ways.
and adopted in foresight exercises if these impacts are to be attained intentionally. Furthermore the foresight system's interaction with the wider environment has to be studied
which focused on the reported impacts of foresight exercises both intended and unintended. The available literature7 on foresight impacts notes that it is mainly the foresight process impacts that contribute to certain characteristics of the emerging‘knowledge society'.
and identify those elements affected by foresight exercises can be regarded as a generic objectives model for foresight exercises likely to contribute to a more participatory‘knowledge society'.
Table 1 groups together many of the reported objectives and impacts associated with foresight exercises under the headings of‘intermediate'and‘lower level'goals. 5. Approach for developing an impact assessment framework It is possible
This approach Fig. 2. Objectives hierarchy for foresight exercises contributing to a more participatory‘knowledge society'.'545 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 has to be modified,
impacts of foresight exercises Intermediate goals: IP: Creating informed publics Interest from the general public DU:
K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 principles that a foresight exercise should adopt
when assessing foresight exercises. Fig. 3a demonstrates how the approach starts from the inner cycle in the diagram,
and institutions and communication between them) Governance and policy-making culture (including levels of commitment) Sociocultural factors in relation to public participation and the perceived utility and eventual impacts of foresight exercises The nature of innovation processes and the‘innovation system'in
then the possibility of building a common impact assessment framework for foresight exercises based on their contribution to a more participatory‘knowledge society'irrespective of their specific context
effectiveness, appropriateness, sustainability and additionality. 6. Understanding the dynamics of foresight systems in three countries A first attempt to understand the dynamics of foresight systems can be based on the evaluation of three foresight exercises;
The evaluation of the latest UK Foresight programme 5 sheds light on several direct and indirect impacts and highlighted several factors that affected the overall success of the UK foresight exercise.
the evaluation confirmed the stance that foresight exercises should have a specific‘client, 'and thus a specific focus, rather than multiple and diverse clients and objectives.
The evaluation also highlighted the fact that broader environmental factors can influence the success of a foresight exercise.
The evaluation of the eforesee Foresight exercise in Malta 7 highlights even more the value of the foresight process as an agent of cultural and behavioural change.
The evaluation also revealed the value of a one of the less-emphasised benefits of foresight exercises,
and b. 7. From the impact assessment framework to the logic model The above framework can be enriched further by findings from studies of other foresight exercises in different countries,
in order to define the degree to which foresight exercises can achieve impacts in networking and actors'alignment.
'This suggests that it is possible to assess foresight exercises in terms of their contribution to more participatory‘knowledge societies,
'which provides the higher level of reference needed to assess foresight exercises irrespective of their specific aims, scopes and levels of implementation.
This in turn presupposes that the dynamics of foresight exercises are understood. A model is needed thus capable of explaining the interdependencies and interrelatiionship between foresight system elements such as actors, processes, inputs, outputs and impacts,
if foresight exercises are to result in impacts in line with the evolution of participatory‘knowledge societies'.'It also helps in the identification of external factors affecting the success of the foresight system as a whole.
it is essential to complete the model with findings from other foresight exercises in different countries,
and factors that foresight exercises need to take into account when targeting such impacts. This will be done in parallel with the continued study of other foresight exercises
and a series of interviews with foresight specialists to complete the development of the model describing the dynamics of foresight exercises in different contexts.
The applicability of the resulting impact assessment framework (s) will then be tested via case studies. 555 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 References 1 E. Amanatidou,
Sept. 2006.15 L. Georghiou, M. Keenan, Towards a Typology for Evaluating Foresight exercises, Paper 2 in proceedings EU US Seminar:
Lessons from Regional infrastructure foresight, deals with a foresight exercise in connection with strategic infrastructure planning. They argue that foresight allows addressing trade-offs related to context uncertainties,
Foresight exercises, in turn, usually identify the possible future developments, driving forces, emerging technologies, barriers, threats and opportunities related to a broader socio-techno-economic system.
depending on the issues examined and the purpose of the foresight exercise. Technology assessment (TA) has ingredients of both of these approaches
whereas in foresight exercises the positive developments like innovation possibilities has Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 Corresponding author.
Eerola and Väyrynen 6,(see also 7), describe foresight exercises with the help of the SECI model as dynamic shared knowleddg creation processes that go repeatedly through externalisation, combination,
According to the framework the following functions can be distinguished in a Foresight exercise 42: Diagnosis: Understanding where we are Prognosis:
The same idea goes to foresight exercises where wild cards and weak signals reveal the potential future or give tips for the future. 4. 2. Contingent
Although the somehow vague character is needed in the foresight exercises seeking for the unknown future, foresight studies may also benefit the systemic process common to the risk analysis processes.
because emerging risks field is closest to the foresight exercises compared to the picture 5. To build the bridge between foresight
Another option may be to keep the risk assessment approach in the process during the whole foresight exercise.
Therefore, every foresight exercise has an impact on the system the foresight is performed in, in this case the BMBF and the policy as well as the innovation system.
The paper covers the evolution of the foresight exercise over its two-year life span, highlighting the different meanings given to the exercise by different stakeholder groups as the process unfolded and interim results were made known.
It highlights the underlying tensions present in those foresight exercises that explicitly attempt to set national priorities.
and the analysis portrayed in this paper is instructive for the planning of large-scale foresight exercises that need to serve high-level policy objectives subject to demanding time constraints and expectations.
In other countries foresight exercises have been carried out on the national level by entities (private or public) other than research councils and related organisations.*
and M. Borup However, there is often great uncertainty about how to implement foresight exercises within research councils and how to use the results.
Many reports from foresight exercises are ignored and foresight practitioners can become frustrated following comprehensive exercises when recommendaation based on solid reasoning are implemented not.
Although the use of foresight exercises as a tool has become widespread over the latest 10 15 years
Based on this it is the aim of the article to investigate how foresight exercises can be improved
First, foresight exercises include future societal and economic needs and possibilities in the setting of priorities.
Second, foresight exercises usually include actors in the priority discussion other than scientists. In some cases only industry representatives are included in the process
Therefore, it seems obvious why many traditional research communities take a reluctant stance on foresight exercises. 2. 1. Rationale
and objectives for foresight The rationale for carrying out public foresight exercises is often related to the political goal of increasing economical competitiveness by means such as technological or societal innovation.
It is acknowledged generally that the theoretical rationale for foresight exercises is supported by the perspective (or school) of evolutionary economics (Georghiou and Keenan 2006.
Following foresight exercises in many countries during the 1990s, there now seems to be a new wave of research
In the same way, foresight exercises and similar strategic activities aim to position national research optimally in relation to future opportuniitie in the strategic environment of national research programmes:
This element is partly present in the emphasis in foresight exercises on participatory processes and societal dialogue.
), but also have a strong element of prospective outlook similar to foresight exercises. The processes can be improved by implementing the procedural elements of foresight exercises,
especially with respect to elements such as the legitimacy of discussing long-term future perspectives and the inclusion of actors.
First, foresight exercises that take national policies into account as a boundary condition are easier to implement than those challenging national policies.
Of course, awareness rising or advocacy might also be the reasons behind foresight exercises, but implementation and impact must be measured in other ways.
The implementation phase is a key element in any foresight exercise, but the process should also be designed to include thoughts about the‘policy toolbox'in the process itself.
'Fourth, foresight exercises are understood often and outlined according to rational-analytical models of decision processes whereas research councils seem to follow other models.
when planning foresight exercises. Acknowledgements The work behind this article received funding from the Danish Social science Research council through the project,‘Strategies and identity of science a study of strategy processes in national research programmes'.
bmanchester Institute of Innovation research (PREST), University of Manchester, M13 9pl, UK This paper sets out to review the conduct and immediate impacts of a two-year national technollog foresight exercise
The country's small size brings into sharp viewmany of the underlying tensions present in those foresight exercises that explicitly attempt to set national priorities.
which described the first phase of the FNR Foresight exercise. The current paper extends this analysis to the second and third phases of the exercise
By doing so, it covers the evolution of the foresight exercise over its two-year life span,
Section 6 considers the impacts of the foresight exercise, while a final section draws some summary conclusions and highlights lessons for future foresight practice. 2. STI Policy in Luxembourg Before the 1980s,
and to identify important implementation issues. 5. Conduct of FNR Foresight Foresight exercises tend to face a number of generic challenges in their conduct
and second, to use a foresight exercise to identify and develop those domain areas that might be of interest,
these different groups sometimes held varying views on priority-setting and the scope and conduct of the FNR Foresight exercise in particular,
therefore and the proposed foresight exercise was given the go-ahead by the Board, on the understanding that it would provide a more participative (involving knowledge users as well as producers) and future-oriented (visionary) approach to identifying topic areas suitable for new FNR programmes.
the FNR proposed to use the foresight exercise to define not only thematic priorities, but also to consider the structural aspects and funding mechanisms and instruments of public research.
which was supportive of the idea of a foresight exercise. Later on, it even requested the Fund to broaden the scope of the analysis from the‘mere'definition of new FNR programmes to the identification of nationwide research priorities, i e.‘
the FNR Secretariat assured participants that the foresight exercise was constructed not around a‘winner takes all'competition between research domains.
However, these were not explicitly prioritised by the FNR Foresight exercise; rather, prioritisation was being carried out at Level 3. In other words,
but this was always going to be near impossible for the FNR Foresight exercise to achieve, for several reasons.
Foresight exercises might provide a platform for nascent niche areas to gain greater prominence, but foresight is unsuited often to the identification of niche areas de novo.
Instead, a better STI policy strategy is to foster an innovation system that is sufficiently flexible to support such areas at their time of emergence. 5. 3. Deliberative processes Foresight exercises are characterised by deliberation between various stakeholders, often in workshhop and working groups.
but tended to render the conduct of the foresight exercise more difficult as a considerable number of participaant defended the interests of their various affiliated organisations.
and seemed to be the main focus for them. 6. Foresight impacts Given the wide scope of participation in foresight exercises,
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the number of proposals in domains newly identified by the Foresight exercise was lower in comparison to the domains where there have been research activities for several years,
Overall, the successful conduct of the Foresight exercise and its implementation, together with all the other ongoing structural changes, indicate a growing maturity of the Luxembourg STI environment, particularly around public governance.
whether the private sector will find direct use for the results of the Foresight exercise and to what extent the exercise has influenced its strategic aims.
Many senior scientific personnel from the private sector used the exercise to underline the need for high quality public research as a prerequisite for innovation and mutually rewarding cooperation between both sectors. 7. Conclusions For those familiar with running foresight exercises
but the small size of Luxembourg also brings into sharp view many of the underlying tensions present in those foresight exercises that explicitly attempt to set national priorities.
, outcomes of comparable foresight exercises, etc. This was problematic in the Luxembourg setting, as much national data was missing
The EC has sponsored also pilot foresight exercises in Malta, Cyprus and Estonia as part of the eforesee project (see Crehan and Cassingena-Harper 2008).
as well as between local government and other research and innovation actors. 5. 3. Ultimate, long-term impacts Integrating suitable new actors in the community dealing with research and innovation is one of the key long-term impacts expected from foresight exercises.
2. Obviously, there are also certain types of foresight exercises that have a less pro-active intention by concentrating on the identification of future challenges
in the belief that our analysis may be instructive for the planning of large-scale foresight exercises that need to serve high-level policy objectives subject to demanding time constraints and expectations.
In effect, the extent to which the objectives of a foresight exercise are instrumental (e g. priority-setting)
In this setting, the chances of conducting a successful foresight exercise can be enhanced much if these questions are recognised explicitly in the pre foresight phases (see, e g.
and examine Finnsight in view of axes of balance that are arguably helpful in the planning of foresight exercises The methodological novelties of Finnsight are highlighted,
Yet, these many activities notwithstanding (or possibly because of the proliferation thereof), there have been no foresight exercises on a scale that would match the scope
Yet, the very remit of the foresight exercise for which the apt title Finnsight 2015 was coined implied that a large-scale consultative process was called for,
and the methods of the foresight exercise are defined during its earliest phases and then imposed consistently through reasonably tight controls.
Introduction The paper presents an approach at improving the impact of foresight by systematically taking into account the characteristics of the targeted research and innovation (R&i) domains when designing a Foresight exercise.
Available online 19 november 2010 A b s T R A c T Thepaperpresentsanapproachatimprovingtheimpact offoresightbysystematicallytaking into account the characteristics of the targeted research and innovation (R&i) domains when designing a Foresight exercise.
The design of a Foresight exercise can be adjusted to field specificities. This will be illustrated by two case studies,
and define the Foresight exercise as a project with a clear beginning and end. Hence, we exclude from our analyses Embedded foresight
Towards this end, we will crystallise the functions of Foresight exercise in order to provide support in the definition of Foresight objectives within the field configurations.
This will enable us to identify the Knowledge dynamics characteristics that will impact the Foresight exercises, i e. their tailoring using the arenas for governance Foresight objectives matrix. 4. Knowledge dynamics in European research and innovation system Policy-making in arenas of strategic orientation,
then we will elaborate the designs of the Foresight exercises fitted to the specific Knowledge dynamics and institutional arrangements in these two fields. 5. 1. The case of genetically modified plants (GMP) After the completion of the human genome map in 2001,
Two types of Foresight exercises are emerging from the analysis: firstly, exploration of multiple GM futures in the broader context of agricultural system and secondly, localisation and diversification of the GM research agenda.
Nevertheless a careful analysis of potential synergies may well reveal a number of inroads for coordinated Foresight exercises directed at priority setting
Finally, as for GM plants, a Nano Foresight exercise may contribute to raise research on safety assessment among the scientific priorities for avoiding the stalemate GM plants are facing.
Based on this analysis conclusions for potential Foresight exercises with a relevant contribution for the development of these fields were sketched.
Even though the analysis of the two cases could only be done in a very preliminary manner it proved possible to derive meaningful conclusions for the design of Foresight exercises.
An increasing structural focus for foresight exercises is associated not only with broader R&i system reform but also with an engagement with new-wave innovation policies.
Fig. 1 summarises the results of an analysis of 50 foresight exercises described in the European foresight monitoring Network (EFMN) database. 1 These exercises listed a total of 199 objectives
and capacity building Priority setting for S&t Network building Supporting policy or strategy development Analysing the future potential of technologies Fig. 1. Analysis of objectives of 50 foresight exercises. 1 Thanks
Later critical technologies exercises in Europe such as The french Key technologies Programme and the Czech Foresight exercise introduced these key foresight characteristics 9, 10.
which are intended to build on a thematic or priority-setting approach for example building action networks around the priorities and foresight exercises
and the participants and operators of foresight exercises who confront the realities of the need for structural change and a process-oriented approach.
''A number of foresight exercises have addressed actors. Universities have been a particular focus. A review for the 2006 FTA conference noted an increasing use of scenarios for the sector in the face of a number of pressures
however, that many governmental foresight exercises fail to provide the necessary support for interpretation to a wide range of stakeholders,
In the Nordic foresight exercise the pilot studies and other‘‘internalisation''activities were thus happening at the same time as the FTA PROCESS proceeded to the next circles of the externalisation and combination phases.
managing and interpreting the outcomes of Foresight exercises that involve leaders from a diverse range of governments,
the foresight exercise was about forming different backcasting scenarios to the desired future. The approach of using backcasting was predetermined also specifically.
and disseminate knowledge deriving from the foresight exercises amongst stakeholders and political decision-makers. In spite of the above-mentioned advantages, territorial foresight has clear limitations.
Despite the well-deserved interest and merit of the previous references, specialized literature still shows a substantial divorce between the scope and content of foresight exercises and the specific needs of urban planning.
On the one hand, most foresight exercises by social scientists are usually based on general narratives that are intellectually stimulating but rarely of much help to the physical planner for making decisions in the urban realm.
and urban planning PAGE 320 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 because all the elements are used in an articulated and coherent way, with a foresight exercise as a solid starting point.
The stated foresight exercise followed the conventional scenario design methodology made up of three sequential stages:
and their perceived barriers to the implementation of these studies. 2. Scenarios regarding social attitudes towards sustainable development were adopted from the foresight exercise carried out by Fundacio'n OPTI in 2007.
and focus groups. 3. The determination of functional implications as a means to strengthen scenario design was tested for the first time as part of a foresight exercise undertaken in Burgos city (Asociacio'n Plan Estrate'gico de Burgos,
Foresight exercises, or‘formal'assessments of the future, thus, are surrounded by‘informaal assessments of the future (Salo 2001).
and discusses the implications for formal foresight exercises of science and technology. The central question of this paper is whether and howforesight exercises,
The next section will review the range of foresight exercises and their methods, objectives and settings. Section 3 will discuss the main findings of the sociology of expectations,
and relevance of foresight. 2. Foresight exercises Various forms of foresight have been developed to support strategic decision-making amongst firms
Foresight exercises provide policy with better problem definitions, ensuring more involvement of stakeholders and help to implement the policy (Harper et al. 2008).
Apart from methods and objectives, foresight exercises also differ in the settings in which they are used.
For foresight exercises, it is relevant to consider that the constructivist perspective acknowledges that others are in the same situation as those who judge the expectations (Van't Klooster and Van Asselt 2011.
In companies, public organisations and in ministries foresight exercises are conducted for many reasons and with different effects.
are performative Expectations enhance the strategic character of S&t priority-setting The efficacy of foresight as an antidote to lock in is limited Enhanced legitimation for selected priorities Foresight exercises
Once specific futures are articulated in foresight exercises, others may refer to these to underpin their position.
Likewise, when networks are built with foresight exercises (in which claims about the future are made) these networks will adopt the claims
5. Conclusion Foresight exercises can be seen as formal articulations of possible futures, to be contrasted with the numerous informal articulations of futures that circulate in science and technology.
Foresight exercises will draw from the repertoire of circulating statements, as we saw in the case of technology roadmaps.
strategy space and visionary space, systemic II scope Our fourth case is Nordic ICT Foresight, an example of a systemic foresight exercise (Ahlqvist et al. 2007a, 2007b.
Thus, foresight exercises would benefit from the increased historical depth, and historical analyses would benefit from the deeper engagement with how the contextual future perspectives are manifested in the past presents'.
Identifying expected areas of future innovation by combining foresight outputs Yoshiko Yokoo and Kumi Okuwada Abstract Purpose This paper attempts to examine the efficacy of combining outputs from a foresight exercise by different
The 9th Foresight exercise employed three different types of methods to meet this requirement: 1. Delphi that focuses on the technological aspect;
the 9th Foresight exercise narrowed down the course of actions, in terms of scientific and technological challenges, into the following four global or national challenges:
The Delphi survey in the 9th Foresight exercise aims to outline the future prospect of development in science
and Technology information for analysis is obtained from the Delphi survey and scenario building by group work in the 9th Foresight exercise.
The 9th Foresight exercise was conducted under the concept of contributing to the future society. The points of the exercise were diversified interdisciplinary
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