Building the Nordic Research and Innovation Area in Hydrogen, Summary Report of Nordic H2 Energy Foresight project, Risoe National Laboratory, Risoe, 2005.481 E. A. Eriksson, K
analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organisation. Technology analysis & Strategic management 21 (3)( 2009) 381 405.3 R. Smits, S. Kuhlmann, The rise of systemic instruments in innovation policy, Int. J. Foresight Innov.
He studied economics and has been doing research and foresight projects in the area of research, technoloog and innovation policy, in particular related to regional and technological innovation systems such as transport and energy.
Self-evaluation tool for foresight project managers. http://www. eranet-forsociety. net (accessed 19 november 2007. Freeman, C. 1991.
which was framed emphatically as a foresight project that would produce informational results, in the expectation that different organisations would use these results in whatever ways they would see pertinent.
analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organization. Technological Analysis & Strategic management 21, no. 3: 381 405.
reflections from a hydrogen Foresight project, Journal of Cleaner Production 15 (3)( 2007) 259 265.39 K. Cuhls, From forecasting to Foresight processes new participative Foresight activities in Germany, Journal
The paper elaborates a framework with key design dimensions related to foresight process and outcomes in order to characterise different kinds of foresight projects.
The framework is applied for the empirically based ex post analysis of selected foresight projects around the world
for instance, mean that it has not been easy to evaluate the impacts of the foresight project (for instance,
4 6). We elaborate further a foresight framework developed by Ko nno la et al. 7 to characterise different foresight projects
Section 2 elaborates the conceptual framework for the characterisation of different foresight projects. In Section 3, some national and international projects are examined and characterised within the framework,
and discussion on the possible advantages of the proposed framework for the characterisation of foresight projects as contribution to the policy-making process. 2. Characteristics of foresight projects To understand the impacts of foresight in the system,
and elaborated for the purposes to characterise foresight projects conducted around the world in relation with major societal challenges.
The first dimension addresses the type of main outcomes of the foresight project referring to its different kinds of impacts on the policy and society at large.
In each of the four dimensions archetypal dichotomies are conceptualised for the further characterisation of a foresight project.
and extensive elements are present. 3. Empirical findings on foresight projects addressing societal challenges 3. 1. Introduction Major societal challenges have been addressed by the foresight community for already several decades.
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 254 Table 1 Selected foresight projects addressing societal challenges. Project Outcomes Future perspectives Management Stakeholder engagement Nordic ICT Foresighta 17 Informative Evaluations of key ICT applications, Nordic scenario set in context of ICT development, scenario
A quick scan was performed on foresight projects that address security, sustainability and/or information society issues. The suitability of the identified projects was discussed
The attempt was not to make a global scan of the conducted foresight projects in these fields,
of course, that foresight project consists of identifiable elements for the classification. In practice, foresight activities often consist of some elements of the both sides of these dichotomies,
Once the projects are positioned in the framework they provide an overview of the whole portfolio of foresight projects analysed that supports building the more holistic view of the selected activities.
The foresight projects listed in Table 1 can be classified according to the foresight design and management dimensions discussed in Section 2
the selected foresight projects (described in Table 1) can be positioned in four different quadrants (consensual and informative;
Among the foresight projects examined, IRRIIS Scenario work was part of the European integrated project that provided improved understanding of the developments in the security field.
The consensual scenario work was()TD$FIG Fig. 1. Foresight projects positioned in view of the dimensions of outcomes (informative vs. instrumental) and future perspectives (consensual vs. diverse.
Among the foresight projects examined, FISTERA: Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research area (2002 2005) was an FP5 IST Thematic Network coordinated by JRC-IPTS
and managed in collaboration with DG()TD$FIG Fig. 3. Foresight projects positioned in view of the dimensions of outcomes (informative vs. instrumental), future perspectives (consensual vs. diverse) and in the coordinate system of stakeholder engagement (extensive and exclusive) and management
The Foresight project conducted in Canada through a series of collaborative projects aimed at emerging and frontier technology domains that could be important to national policy development process for the next ten years.
The foresight projects identified in Asia seemed to be all consensual; hence this would suggest that foresight projects with open-ended diverse visions of the future are not common in these countries.
However, the diversity of viewpoints in Asian countries may come from the richness of activities. Foresight activities in Asian countries are conducted in different levels,
The first one was an internal foresight project in VTT Technical research Centre of Finland. The key foci of the VTT Water Research Roadmap were the creative combination of wide-ranging water related issues at VTT as well as the generation of new R&d initiatives.
4. Conclusions In the past years, increasing attention has been paid to the relevance of foresight for policy-making by coming up with different characterisation and typology of different foresight projects (for instance, 7, 12,26, 27.
While the framework is suitable for both the ex-ante and ex post analysis of foresight projects,
we elaborate and attest its validity in the context of ex post analysis of a number of foresight projects focusing on sustainability, security and information society and their contribution to policy-making.
Our analysis supports the thesis that different classes of foresight projects have respective different types of impacts on policy and society.
and management of foresight projects have to look for cautious balance between different design dimensions in order to accommodate different stakeholder expectations.
This is almost a natural function or characteristic of any foresight project that stems from the process itself,
The results of our ex post analysis of foresight projects confirm the wide set of expectations laid on foresight activities.
We expect that the developed framework can facilitate the discussion about the expectations and the management of foresight projects and about its impact on policy-making and society at large.
we consider that another relevant future avenue might be to enhance the international foresight collaboration in terms of exchange of experiences and the implementation of common foresight projects.
reflections from a hydrogen foresight project, Journal of Cleaner Production 15 (2007) 259 265.4 L. Georghiou, The UK technology foresight programme, Futures 28 (4)( 1996) 359
analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organisation, Technological Analysis & Strategic management 21 (3)( 2009) 381 405.8 M. Cariola, R. Secondo, Evolution in the rationales of foresight
. Kivisaari, R. Koivisto, Management of foresight portfolio analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organisation, Technological Analysis & Strategic management 21 (3)( 2009) 381 405.15 E. Eriksson
''This raises the issue of when those responsible for the foresight project should hand it over to the relevant stakeholders.
Thomas led several foresight projects, among them the FP-financed SANDERA study on the future interaction of security policy and the European research area.
He has been a consultant for large firms and governmental bodies in Italy and abroad in several foresight projects.
After that, we demonstrate the‘widened'roadmapping approach by using four of VTT's foresight projects as case studies.
Section 4 presents four case studies of VTT's foresight projects. Finally Section 5 wraps up the argument and opens future avenues for further exploration.
In the following section, we use four examples of VTT's foresight projects to illustrate how roadmapping can be applied in constructing systemic capacities.
were somewhat singular foresight projects. This means that, even though they are inherent parts of the‘knowleddg continuum'at VTT,
Analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organization. Technological Analysis & Strategic management 21, no 3: 381 405.
Design/methodology/approach The foresight project is described and provides knowledge and analysis for a broader, national research prioritisation exercise.
The method used in the case study is to examine outputs from the foresight project conducted on global drivers and trends and their (national) implications for research and enterprise.
and support in RTDI towards addressing grand challenges in areas such as energy, resources, demographic change, health and security. 3. Irish foresight project on global drivers and their implications for research and innovation:
S&t&i priorities for the Russian natural resources sector Sergey Shashnov and Anna Sokolova Abstract Purpose This paper aims to analyse three individual foresight projects referring to the natural resources sector in Russia, their interconnection
Originality/value For the first time the paper presents an analysis of Russian foresight projects connected to the natural resources area and an evaluation of their influence on policy decision making.
Keywords Priority-setting, Russia, Natural resources, Long term planning, Foresight project planning, Innovation, Technology led strategy, Sciences Paper type Research paper 1. Introduction In recent years
So, in Russia, three foresight projects related to the topic of natural resources were conducted. They were interconnected and the results of the earlier projects were used in the subsequent studies to accomplish the overall objective,
The analysis of these three Foresight projects is presented below. VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 41 2. Methodology The methodology of the paper includes several steps:
The innovation and S&t priorities for the Russian natural resources sector were identified in the framework of three connected foresight projects.
14 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke, Envisioning structural transformation lessons from a foresight project on the future of innovation, Technol.
She has worked in several foresight projects mainly in the advancement of the application of foresight as an instrument for policy-making formulation.
Envisioning structural transformation lessons from a foresight project on the future of innovation Elna Schirrmeister, Philine Warnke Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany a r t
Experiences from a foresight project exploring future innovation patterns (www. innovation-futures. org) are discussed. Four specific features were applied
The INFU (Innovation Futures) foresight project was set out to explore such future innovation landscapes. INFU was financed by the European commission in the 7th Framework programme Area Social sciences and Humanities (SSH.
The foresight project comprised four distinctive phases with different methodological approaches: 1. screening for signals of changes linked to innovation in a wide range of online
This type of story-scripts has successfully been applied in previous foresight projects with similar objectives e g. 27.
As a mechanical engineer she has conducted various foresight projects on future prospects for industrial production and on research and innovation patterns on behalf of government authorities
Foresight projects have often been carried out as stand-alone activities and have been partly decoupled from the processes into which the results of the foresight must feed.
focusing on different characterisations and typologies of foresight projects 2 3. The literature has suggested that foresight must be an integral part of policy-making processes 4,
All rights reserved. the real world through different characterisations and typologies of both foresight projects and their contexts.
For each of the six regions, Keenan and Popper compare issues such as scale of participation in the foresight project and methods used.
The aim is to draw lessons for international foresight processes on the basis of a specific international foresight project on intelligent and sustainable manufacturing systems.
Section 6 summarises the main conclusions. 2. Global foresight design and management The design and management of global foresight projects,
analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organisation, Technological Analysis and Strategic management 21 (3)( 2009) 381 405.15 T. Ko nno la, V. Brummer, A. Salo
, the results of the foresight project challenged existing development projects and led to strategic changes within the company.
and internatioona foresight projects as consultant and leads a pilot project joining the horizon scans of the UK,
or been an advisor to collaborative foresight projects in several emergiin science and technology (S&t) domains such as:
most foresight projects are designed explicitly to appeal to policy-makers'needs for more certainty, or reduced levels of risk, even about prospective situations or events that contain inherently unpredictable aspects Impacts in terms of strategy formulation for action Support decision making Improve policy implementation Strengthen strategy formulation:
What is the foresight project selection process? How has evolved the foresight program over time? Do you have a foresight wish list?
reviews of foresight project level summaries and overviews from the EFMN (part of the European foresight Knowledge sharing Platfoor which monitors
and consisting of foresight project briefs and other documents). Our second study looked at the following countries:
Policy implications With strong user inputs in scientific and managemeen issues, the foresight project appears to have high potential to inspire
Even before the projecct'conclusion a number of activities related to the foresight project had been initiated that also raised the awareness in biosecurity throughout the region.
Subsequently, Dr Okamoto from RIKEN, who was a key contributor to the foresight project, also addressed the possibility of using one of the RIKEN research bases as an Towards low cost, high sensitivity and specificity, rapid,
and in particular policy strategies Various governance modes are addressed in examination of instituutiona change for uptake of foresight results in design of systemic innovation policy Discusses how the findings of foresight project are embedded in institutional structures and policy design 160.
and capacity in running, foresight projects through foresight training. Knowledge collected on pilots methodologies and understanding of transnational research programming needs to be accumulated, calling for institutionalised forms of knowledge repositories.
Methodological advances have been pursued, for instance, in the Framework programme 7 Blue sky Foresight projects on emerging issues that shape European science and technoloog (Amanatidou et al. 2012.
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