and analysis. The process element also highlighted the importance of the management process for foresight studies
In the following, we report some foresight studies, which focus directly or indirectly on the future need and role of regulations.
The guide introduces a methodological framework for foresight studies. According to the framework the following functions can be distinguished in a Foresight exercise 42:
foresight studies may also benefit the systemic process common to the risk analysis processes. Risk assessment methods are fixed traditionally approaches,
and from foresight studies 22 27 and took into account knowledge from 15 years of foresight in Germany and internationally 4, 5, 6, 17,21, 28 31.
is the purpose of this paper. 1. 1. History Current Foresight studies attempt to create collective anticipations, usually related to technology,
It is far from clear that the sponsors of Foresight studies, and those who execute them,
From their beginning in Japan in 1971 it was natural for Foresight studies to absorb many of the processes
As a result, there are two general shapes to Foresight studies that flow from early decisions about their procedures and management structure.
Practical experiments to widen participation in Foresight studies vary from extensions of conventional approaches to entirely new ones.
an area ignored in all Foresight studies until now. Sponsors will need to put much effort into understanding these behavioural matters
Foresight studies have so far been conceived for national or regional borders. The notions of‘sovereignty'and their influence nationally and locally have been strong
without this systemic appreciation, Foresight studies may be hopelessly misleading. 2. 5. Characteristics of Inclusive foresight As an initial hypothesis,
and its influence in Foresight studies The role of human behaviour in Foresight studies is ignored usually diminishing the understanding of the outcome.
Consequently, the circumstances prevailing at the time of a Foresight study can influence the outcome in ways that remain unknown. 2. Seeking opinions from a mixture of people from so many different levels in the typology will introduce new issues to be resolved to retain credibility between all the participants.
-Me's and Experiential's is large and likely to introduce many new factors into the day-to-day management of Foresight studies,
These behavioural influences are discussed rarely in Foresight studies though they are important in many respects, some
formal public enquiries of limited scope and invited workshops are the most frequently encountered processes used to extend the deliberations of the committee charged with the Foresight study.
Furthermore, the omnibus term‘nanotechnology'misleads the participants in any Foresight study into believing that they are confronting a homogeneous and coherent technology
and decision-making are two key issues in the field of foresight studies. Although the use of foresight exercises as a tool has become widespread over the latest 10 15 years
some of the public research centres have conducted their own mini-foresight studies, influenced and inspired by the FNR exercise.
and was responsible for the conduct of the FNR Foresight study. Carlo Duprel is senior programme manager at the National research Fund of Luxembourg
and was involved in the conduct of the FNR Foresight study. Michael Keenan is Senior Research fellow at the Manchester Institute of Innovation research
and acted as adviser to the FNR Foresight study. Notes 1. As part of the general interest in technology foresight
Most recently, foresight studies have stormed onto the scene to become a global phenomenon. Globalisation and its offspring glocalisation have moved centre stage and now present three pillars corporate industrial activity,
''It was argued that many foresight studies had pointed to the possibility of a collapse in the global economic system 2
‘‘We have moved from the spectacular mountains of individual foresight studies to the range of foothills of distributed and embedded foresight projects, less visible but probably far greater in volume''.
and how to extract real value from the results of foresight studies and projects. Much foresight work,
A perusal of the various websites specifically devoted to foresight studies (European foresight Platform, Forlearn Online Guide (n d.)and Millennium Project (n d.))shows that most scenarios exercises conclude with a description of the geopolitical, economic, societal and technological contexts.
surveys and foresight studies Delphi methodology and scenarios) that are adequate to conduct regulatory foresight, and which allow the identification of future fields for regulatory policy intervention.
and discusses the implications of this condition for foresigght The range of foresight studies is reviewed as well as the main results of the sociology of expectations,
Some argue that foresight studies run the risk to reinforce existing paths and thus contribute to lock in (Jacobsson and Johnson 2000;
Design/methodology/approach The three foresight studies used different methodologies depending on the project's goal. First the projects'interconnections are explained.
Within the implementation of this foresight study it was realised that S&t priorities should be complemented by innovative priorities for corresponding development of the Russian management system in the field of natural resources,
The third foresight study commissioned by the RF Ministry of Natural resources and Ecology was devoted to exactly this task:
then we describe foresight studies that created a base for our analysed projects. The structure of the project, including analysed S&t areas
2025 (FS1) The aim of this foresight study was the identification of the most important and well-developed S&tareas in Russia in the long-term perspective.
PAGE 42 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 This study was based on another foresight study devoted to the identification of national S&t priorities and a corresponding list of critical technologies (Sokolov, 2008b.
and to supplement the results received from the previous project. 4. The influence of the foresight studies on policy decision-making As can be seen above,
Table IV The influence of the foresight studies on policy decision-making Influence on policy-making Evaluation of influence on policy-making FS1 The foresight data were used as an information source for many political purposes:
This research may help to solve the practical difficulties faced during the secondary analysis of foresight studies in foresight preparatory studies by providing a consistent classification framework to make comparison and aggregation of future technology options from different countries/regions.
One is to help solving the practical difficulties faced during the secondary analysis of foresight studies in foresight preparatory studies,
He received his engineering degree at Ecole Centrale (Paris). His key qualifications are Sustainability Policy analysis and impact assessment, and foresight studies.
Porter 40 suggested considering the use of multiple FTA METHODS tailored to the type of foresight study.
By evaluating six Dutch Foresight exercises from the point of view of policy makers as‘‘users''of foresight studies they highlight the importance of taking into account differences between the national and local level when designing an FTA PROCESS.
Evaluating local and national public foresight studies from a user perspective Nicole Rijkens-Klomp a b,,*Patrick Van der Duin c, d a International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P o box 616,6200 MD Maastricht, The netherlands b Pantopicon
Motives behind the selection of foresight methods, the timing involved in using insights from foresight studies in strategic policy-making processes, the added value of foresight methods,
which we mean from the point of view of experts on the production or methodology of foresight studies.
because they may be involved in the development phase of scenarios as well as the usage phase of a foresight study. 2. 2. Methods
and carries out foresight studies for local policy organisations and organises debates and workshops to increase awareness about possible future changes.
The two studies that examined the national level mainly involved semi-structured interviews with civil servants involved in strategic matters and with the users and commissioners of foresight studies.
The national policy foresight'study showed that studies of the future can be a source of inspiration for the development of new policy ideas, for agenda setting (i e.,
The national level‘policy foresight'studies showed that foresight can play three different roles:(1) signalling new developments,
Also, in the‘organizational foresight'study, the various foresight studies of the future carried out by the government departments are designed to form initial ideas and opinions about organisational change.
The use of foresight studies stimulated mutual learning processes, allowing participants to learn from each other's perspectives on the future and providing them with a common foundation for future policies.
Another notable result from the local level case studies is that the respondents did not perceive the potential added value of foresight studies for policy innovation (see also, the conclusion by 26.
When we compare the local level results to the two national policy foresight'studies, it becomes clear that there is a greater focus on content at the national level,
Often, it was unclear how the insights from the foresight study were applied in the policy analyses.
when local organisations decided to conduct a foresight study for the first time. These skills are related to communicating the idea
Policy-makers indicated that they want to remain in control during the development (and use) of the foresight study.
To summarise, national level policy-makers seem to be equipped better to conduct foresight studies than their counterparts at the local level. 3. 5. 2. Timing of the foresight study Both at the local and national level,
foresight studies work better when combined with policy processes rather than as a stand-alone process. Most local policy-makers indicated that the foresight process took more time than they initially expected.
Consequently, there was less time to learn from the foresight study in a strategic 1 Particular issues arise in the case of quantitative forecasting models,
That is to say, the results of foresight studies are of course not necessarily bounded by organisational structures. For instance, possible future economic issues can be related to social and technological issues,
which can clash with the longteer perspective of most foresight studies. Da Costa et al. 25 stated that a lot of effort and commitment is needed for policymakker to switch from dealing with short-term issues towards a more long-term and holistic approach.
when it comes to applying the results of an analysis. Expectations need to be managed at the beginning and throughout the foresight study,
and communicate a foresight study in such a way that it is recognisable for politicians and that it can also be translated into a meaningful analysis within a strategic context 29 31.
Indeed, many foresight studies were set in motion by politicians, making them the most important users of the studies.
In many foresight studies, the role of the civil servants was to carry out the foresight study and let the politicians draw the conclusions.
this also allowed politicians to ignore the foresight study, because not drawing conclusions means that there is no connection between the foresight study and the policy development process.
To summarise, at both the national and local levels, the environment in which futures studies are conducted is complex,
the initiator and main developer of the foresight study, should decide to leave the organisation, support for the project may diminish
task force or ambassador is required to make sure that the foresight study has an impact. To summarise, at both the national and local levels, a kind of‘future champion'plays an important role in the development of the foresight process and its application to strategic policy-making.
and discover how to use the insights of foresight studies in strategic policy processes. At the national level, there is more experience,
as a result of which foresight studies are incorporated to a greater extent in daily routines and have a greater impact on strategic policy processes.
In appropriate timing of the foresight study has been deemed a factor contributing to the failure to apply the insights of a foresight study.
There were also similarities with regard to the implementation of foresight studies and the use of foresight insights, for example the important success factors of leadership and confidence in the process.
the authors feel that foresight studies are used not optimally (see 32). An important challenge has to do with connecting the outcomes of futures research to decision-making processes.
it is very important to position foresight studies within the complex process of building and connecting to other activities,
and the prefixes‘local'and‘national'do not serve any purpose with regard to foresight studies. Different methods of foresight (for example different types of qualitative scenarios) are available,
different reasons and motives for setting up a foresight study may be legitimate, different ways of using foresight studies are possible,
and, finally, there are many different local and national government organisations, each with there own mandate, nature, structure, problems and opportunities.
The national and local level foresight studies indicate that it is difficult to determine levers or barriers that are valid in every case,
which is why a contingency view on designing foresight studies is recommended highly. References 1 A. Hines, B. Bishop, Thinking About the Future.
30 (2003) 212 217.27 Stuurgroep Toekomstonderzoek Strategisch Omgevingsbeleid, Terugblik op Toekomstverkenningen (Looking back at Foresight studies), The hague, The netherlands, 2000.29 M. Van der Steen
The paper by Calof and Smith contributes to the definition of successful foresight studies by identifyiin a set of critical success factors for governmentlle foresight
Map of levels of complexity and indetermiinatio for foresight studies. Paper presented at Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:
we preseen our methodology, analysing its most important Fabienne Abadie is a scientific officer at the Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies workiin on techno-economic foresight studies and the impact of ICTS on the Information society.
although the methodology of foresight study and focus is important, it is insufficient as an indicator of success. Eight factors were identified as the critical keys to success in government-led foresight programs:
and process) for improving the effectiveness of foresight studies (see Table 4). Survey process From the preceding discussion,
Thus, while the methodology of foresight study and focus is also important, it is insufficient as an indicator of success. Taken together, the studies identified many similariities For example:
Future Fuel Technollogy Summary Report of an APEC-wide Foresight study. Bangkok: APEC Center for Technology foresight.
Challenges in communicating the outcomes of a foresight study to advise decision-makers on policy and strategy Claudio Chauke Nehme1, 2,,
Challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 247. The culture of looking ahead, having the past as an important reference..
Challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 249 The foresight exercise itself comprises three distinct phases:
and the pressure from the stakeholders for more efficiency have led the former president of the agency to carry out a foresight study with a clear message of urgency:‘
discussion and prioritization of results in an integrated format Analyses of recommendations of each panel compared to previous Brazilian foresight studies and international information Final report and dissemination of results Biotechnology Mapping
and nanotechnologies in selected countries Challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 251 supporting basic and applied research;
observation dimensions and facts related to Future challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 253 representatives. The interviews were structured semi
Challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 255 6. Lessons learned and main conclusions The items briefly discussed here summarize the main lesson learned,
Challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 257
Head in the clouds and feet on the ground: Research priority setting in China Mats Benner1, Li Liu2,
Nehme, C. C.,de Miranda Santos, M.,Fellows Filho, L. and Massari Coelho, G. 2012)‘ Challenges in communicating the outcomes of a foresight study to advise decision-makers on policy and strategy
Rijkens-Klomp, N. and van der Duin, P. 2012) Evaluating local and national public foresight studies from a user perspecctive Futures (forthcoming.
Furthermore, comprehensive stocktaking on earlier foresight studies can be conducted to understand future developments and to position the programme in the light of other ongoing activities.
which evolved gradually from initial exchanges of relevant foresight studies to more systemaatic comprehensive scanning and detailed analysis of reports,
In this approach, the analysis of foresight studies was only a small work package followed by an internal survey to generate topics.
Papers on foresight studies or specific technological R&d trends were analysed and evaluated as the starting point. Experts with different technological backgrounds met in workshops to discuss
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