Regulatory foresight: Methodologies and selected applications Knut Blind Regulation and Innovation Competence Center Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research, Germany Berlin University of Technology, Faculty Economics and Management
accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract This paper on regulatory foresight addresses approaches which allow future fields for regulatory action to be identified.
The paper presents three methodologies appropriate for performing regulatory foresight. First, an approach is presented which makes use of science
The paper concludes with a comparative analysis of the three methodological approaches regarding their effectiveness to conduct regulatory foresight. 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
defined as regulatory foresight in the narrow sense (see Fig. 1), which was identified as a necessary instrument for policy-makers, especially regulatory bodies,
and psychologically make Fig. 1. Regulatory foresight vs. regulatory impact assessment. 498 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 it necessary to anticipate these changes before they become reality 16.
The crucial difference of our understanding of regulatory foresight is the main focus on the challenges for the regulatory regimes,
Regulatory foresight in our perception is an instrument for regulatory bodies to identify future challenges for their regulatory regimes in advance
Based on the tradition of regulatory impact assessments and foresight exercises, we define regulatory foresight as strategic activity undertaken by governments
The analysis of regulatory foresight in the narrow sense is based, first, on a broad survey of literature databases and the internet regarding regulatory impact assessments in general,
but also regulatory foresight in the narrower sense, which also allows an identification of the institutions most active in the field.
regulatory foresight in the narrow sense triggered by regulatory bodies is still the exception and often part of larger foresight exercises driven by stakeholders of science and technology policies.
Finally, we derive requirements for future research. 2. Overview of regulatory foresight methodologies In order to provide a first overview of methods to conduct regulatory foresight,
we start with an evaluation matrix (Table 1) presenting methodologies to assess the impacts of different policy instruments.
Fahrenkrog et al. 19.500 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Since our focus is mainly on regulatory foresight in the narrower sense,
but which are also adequate for performing regulatory foresight. Consequently, we will consider the following methodologies in the remainder of the paper:
The use of indicators to perform regulatory foresight exercises is just beginning. Since research activities only being performed in basic research are less likely to create challenges for the regulatory framework in the near or mid-term future
patent indicators are suited better to perform regulatory foresight exercises in the sense of identifying dynamic fields of technology.
Nevertheless, only an indicatorbaase approach is able to be the basis for systematic regulatory foresight activities.
These insights can then be used as input for other methodological approaches in regulatory foresight, e g. surveys or Delphi studies. 503 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 3. 2. Surveys 3. 2. 1. Introduction and definition
However, they can be improved further to become a more reliable instrument in regulatory foresight i e. helping to identify needs for regulatory policy intervention. 3. 3. Delphi studies 3. 3. 1. Introduction
and assessment of methodologies Although we cannot refer to a broad sample of regulatory foresights, we have been able to collect relevant experiences from some selected studies
However, this is only a starting point of an assessment of regulatory foresight methodologies. Despite the availability of a number of foresight methods, there is a scope
and a need to look for further methodological improvements towards regulatory foresights focusing on future strategies and actions concerning regulation and the special needs of regulatory bodies.
and assessment of regulatory foresight methodologies Methodology Type Data requirements Strengths Limitations Indicators Quantitative also providing qualitative information Adequate science
The use of Delphi studies for regulatory foresight is faced with the similar strengths and weaknesses of using this approach to identify future trends in science and technology.
the range of stakeholders and experts to be integrated in a Delphi exercise to perform a regulatory foresight becomes wider and more complex,
This short methodological assessment of the few different regulatory foresight methodologies discussed already makes obvious that a simple transfer from applying the methodologies to identify emerging science
and technology fields into regulatory foresight is not sufficient. Significant adjustments and further developments have to be made in order to achieve an adequate methodological base
which allows the performance of regulatory foresights producing valid, reliable and convincing results to be used in policy-making processes,
Aspects of regulatory foresights are included already partly in previous, more general foresight exercises. However, this dimension is compared underemphasised to the objective to identify future priorities for public R&d funding
The advances in regulatory foresight have to be directed to strengthen this dimension in general foresight activities but also specific methodologies focusing on regulatory foresight have to be developed,
which address regulation-specific dimensions, like possible implications on competition, indicators, like regulatory indicators, and stakeholders, like regulatory bodies.
and technology fields into regulatory foresight is not sufficient. Rather, it is argued that significant adjustments and developments are needed to the methodologies,
Futures 36 (10)( 2004) 1063 1075.37 K. Blind, Regulatory foresight: methodologies and selected applications, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516.38 J. Edler, L. Georghiou, Public procurement and innovation resurrecting the demand side, Research policy
surveys and foresight studies Delphi methodology and scenarios) that are adequate to conduct regulatory foresight, and which allow the identification of future fields for regulatory policy intervention.
France, Paris. Blind, K. 2006),‘Regulatory foresight: methodologies and selected applications'',paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:
In the paper‘Regulatory foresight: methodologies and selected applications,'Blind illustrates three methodologies for performing Regulatory foresight.
Regulatory foresight addresses approaches allowing future fields of regulatory actions to be identified, which could also contribute to new markets.
The view of the author is that Regulatory foresight is an instrument for regulatory bodies to identify, in advance, future challenges for their regulatory regimes,
thus allowing them to possibly reshape or develop new frameworks. These would require long-lasting decision processes within the public, the political decision structures,
Regulatory foresight is conceived as strategic activity undertaken by governments and policy-makers responsible for regulatory regimes to shape
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