Initially, foresight activities were mainly based on S&texpert opinion, but in line with the broadening of the scope of foresight, the notion of expert has undergone a redefinition.
and belief in the contribution of foresight activities to shaping rather than predicting and controlling the future.
and participatory workshops in promoting foresight activities within ERA NETS and European coordination tools. 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.02.005 1. Introduction Increasingly, foresight activities exhibit elements of international collaboration and are launched even as multinational efforts (e g.,
not much attention has been devoted the challenges of coordinating foresight activities at the international level 3. Apart from explicitly initiated local,
foresight activities can be conducted within RTD programs and other instruments of innovation policy 7. In this paper, we examine issues in the organization of foresight activities within European coordination tools such as Integrated Projects, Networks of Excellence, ERA NETS, European Technology platforms and Technology initiatives
which seek to foster European collaboration in innovation policy. Specifically we report the design and implementation of an embedded foresight process that was organized in the ERA NET program on wood material sciences 8. Building on the experiences from this process,
iii) identification of practical networking and opening mechanisms for future cooperation, iv) implementation of joint evaluation and foresight activities,
selected foresight activities and selected process elements such as decision support for the bottom up thematic prioritization and the formation of new networks may shift the locus of activities closer to national actors.
Consequently, foresight activities can and have been also be applied to regulation, in order to identify both promising areas for different types of regulation and their possible impacts.
and in Japan, have been contacted to ask about ongoing impact assessment and foresight activities, which may not be available on their websites or from their press offices.
because regulatory bodies have in general no experiences with foresight activities and a long-lasting process of convincing stakeholders about the need and effectiveness of such approaches are required.
The advances in regulatory foresight have to be directed to strengthen this dimension in general foresight activities but also specific methodologies focusing on regulatory foresight have to be developed,
Manag. 7 (2)( 1995) 139 168.10 K. Blind, K. Cuhls, H. Grupp, Current foresight activities in Central europe, Technol.
This is a consequence of the fact that most foresight activities, although sharing some methodological characteristics and similarities in terms of time horizons and audiences addressed,
) 25 33.25 K. Cuhls, From forecasting to foresight processes new participative foresight activities in Germany, J. Forecast. 22 (2 3)( 2003) 93 111.26 F. Berkhout
the locus of foresight activities has tended to shift from the positivist and rationalist technology-focused approaches towards the recognition of broader concerns that encompass the entire innovation system,
forthcoming) propose a taxonomy of foresight activities at a contract research organisation like VTT (see the taxonomy framework in Fig. 4). The axes of the taxonomy are described in the Box 1. According to Könnölä et al. 2 most of the VTT's foresight activities position themselves to the consensual
Thus, the informative outcomes do not refer to the expectations that foresight activity would necessarily lead to specific actions.
and holistic processes Foresight activities and methodologies may have benefits that will support the risk analysis methods and activities in the development towards a more holistic approach.
In order to reach this aim it is essential to strengthen the links between foresight activities, policy development, and actual technological development.
several sector foresight activities were performed (e g. in Health, Environmental issues or Information and Communication) and formulated in roadmaps.
In order to save time, no Delphi survey like in some of the previous German foresight activities was planned 16,17.
This can be a lesson for other foresight activities, too. Of course, BMBF and its different departments will have the last word in the decisions.
Indeed, the requirement for a‘championing department'is now common practice in the UK Government's Foresight activity.
even though the UK Government's current Foresight activity appears to bask in a more receptive Box 1 Taxonomy of policy maker's dilemmas.
The EUFORIA Project synthesis report, Report to the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living Conditions, Working Conditions and Industrial Relations, October, 2003.2 K. Cuhls, Government foresight activities
Amunicipal foresight activity in Lundal is described to illustrate how an image for young people was created to endow them to be represented as stakeholders in the process.
The objective of encouraging other actors of the R&i system to initiate foresight activities has lead to many spinoof activities,
Important users of this type of foresight activity are often national research and innovation councils, national research programmes and similar entities involved directly in prioritising public expenditure on research and development (R&d).
and sponsoring foresight activities as a strategic input to funding activities. In other countries foresight exercises have been carried out on the national level by entities (private or public) other than research councils and related organisations.*
the methods and approaches used in foresight activities have their basis in the academic discipline of strategy.
(or tangible) outputs like reports and websites. 2 We can also observe an increasing interest in foresight activities that aim at supporting strategy formation both at the collective level and at the level of individual organisations.
2) Policy strategic counselling by merging the insights generated in the context of policy informiin foresight activities with perspectives on the strategic positioning
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 957 Table 1. A Framework to classify the impacts of foresight activities.
In addition to one-of-a-kind exercises, important elements of foresight activity are ingrained in policy processes at the highest level of decision making:
thus, some results from even seemingly isolated foresight activities can be brought to bear on policy making even in the absence of formal coordination,
because they had had engaged not in joint consultative foresight activities except within specific research programs (see, e g. Salo and Salmenkaita 2002.
South korea and Canada and by the European commission. 8 One of the objectives of Finnsight was that it should encourage other actors of the R&i system to initiate foresight activities.
From forecasting to foresight processes new participative foresight activities in Germany. Journal of Forecasting 22, nos. 2 3: 93 111.
and/or phases of a foresight activity. Both context and objectives are taken into account in improving strategic processes of priority-setting,
This picks up the point above, that stakeholder engagement and participation is at the core of foresight activities
and analysed by future foresight activities. Concluding the edition, in a short essay, Johnston and Cagnin review the main findings from a series of interviews about the status of FTA as an activity with nine personalities attending the FTA conference.
Foresight activities are seen as functions not only to identify promising technological pathways but also to engage relevant stakeholders and create common visions into action 25,
we explore the implications of field specificities on the Foresight activities taking place in the three governance arenas identified in Section 2. 1. We will present two illustrative cases:
this paper proposes a reasonably validated framework which beyond its acknowledged limitations addresses directly the difficult issue of the design of Foresight activities fit for the emerging European research area (ERA.
we suggest our methodology is applicable indeed for designing such ERA Foresight activities and contribute to address the challenge we face regarding both the ERA and Foresight.
reflections from a hydrogen Foresight project, Journal of Cleaner Production 15 (3)( 2007) 259 265.39 K. Cuhls, From forecasting to Foresight processes new participative Foresight activities in Germany, Journal
In this paper we aim to question the‘traditional'stand-alone type of foresight activity which aims to develop research priorities.
2 If the endpoint of a foresight activity is to be a priority, it is useful first to consider what that term means.
While this is fertile ground for foresight activity, the actual extent to which it is used systematically to support these processes is probably at a fairly low level. 3. Structural foresight As the analysis of motivations showed,
For Europe, a wave of foresight activity was associated with the accession of new EU Member States from the so-called‘‘transition economies''.
The reviews cited above also showed that it was rare for individual institutions to have meaningful foresight activities.
The use of foresight approaches to build linkages for innovation represents a focus for foresight activity in innovation.
future for foresight in research and innovation policy Rationales for foresight activity have evolved in recent years to feature a range of research
The locus of foresight activities has tended to shift from positivist and rationalist technology-focused approaches towards the recognition of broader concerns that encompass the entire innovation system,
Available online 19 november 2010 A b s T R A c T Foresight activities are conducted often to anticipate major societal future challenges
it is beneficial to identify different types of foresight activities. The design of foresight activities addressing societal challenges can benefit from the structured approaches that help to identify the expectations concerning the management of the foresight process
and final outcomes 8. The systemic understanding of innovation processes has challenged conventional technology driven forecasting practices and called for new participatory foresight approaches that address also the consideration of diverse perspectives, formation
Foresight activities are seen also increasingly as crucial functions in order to prepare for the future not only to identify the promising technological pathways
Thus, the informative outcomes do not refer to the expectations that a foresight activity would necessarily lead to specific actions.
Foresight activities often focus on the production of consensual future perspectives that refer to the creation of common understanding on priorities, relevant collaborative networks and future actions.
In practice, foresight activities often consist of some elements of the both sides of these dichotomies, and altogether they form the combination of a case specific process design.
For foresight activities on emerging issues that are not yet proven to be of high policy importance it may be difficult to engage policy-makers in the process.
Such agora type of foresight activities provide a basis for a wide societal debate among different interest groups even with strongly diverging views on the desired future.
Foresight activities in Asian countries are conducted in different levels, such as national level, regional level, sector level and firm's level.
The results of our ex post analysis of foresight projects confirm the wide set of expectations laid on foresight activities.
and discussion when a new cycle of the foresight activity is to be launched. Wealso often see a hasty scramble
to understanding and guiding the shared knowledge creation of key actors (industry, academia and policymakers) in the context of Nordic foresight activities 21,22.
Through most of the exercise's life, some members of stakeholder organisations were engaging with the foresight activity
The majority of respondents engaged in Foresight activity 5 10 years as expected a quite experienced group of professionals (Fig. 2). The survey respondents were mainly from Academia and Governmental bodies (Fig. 3). 3. 2. 2
is responsible for European cooperation and for coordinating foresight activities as well as the research area on sustainable energy systems at the ZHAW Institute of Sustainable development.
Foresight activities are seen as functions not only to identify promising technological pathways but also to engage relevant stakeholders and create common visions into action.
Firm Business Foresight activities started Philips Consumer electronics Early 1990s BASF Chemicals Mid-1990s Daimler Automotive Late 1970s Siemens Consumer Products,
we analysed the foresight activities of each firm in relation to uncertainty and drivers of change in its business environment and the use of strategic foresight in decision-making.
in particular, the heads of the organisational unit in charge of foresight activities. We also interviewed external consultants who were involved in the foresight process.
Subsequent foresight activities address specific regions (the EU, the USA, and Asia) and countries, by breaking down global scenarios into the firm's main sectors and business areas,
Foresight activities address major trends and forces in the political, economic, infrastructural, social, and cultural landscapes which are likely to shape the future of the transport
The outputs from foresight activities provide a wide basis of information which explores longaan medium-term changes in customers'needs and lifestyles,
Philips'foresight activities included as well Philips Research the group's corporate R&d unit which regularly develops technology roadmaps concerning the group main business sectors.
Foresight activities usually cover a 10-year time horizon, while emerging trend investigations are scheduled yearly to fit in with the annual strategy calendar.
Foresight activities are carried out by the Corporate Technology unit, where a specific research unit (an‘Innovation Field')has been established for each of the company business segments.
Since the late 1990s, foresight activities have played a key role in redefining the company mission, as it focused its value proposition on the‘Sense and Simplicity'concept.
At Siemens, too, foresight activities go beyond identifying emerging changes in technology and customer needs to encompass the exploitation of the new market opportunities inherent in such changes.
However, much additional research must be done for improving and expanding this conceptual framework through the study of environmental uncertaiint and foresight activities in other industries and firms.‘
Foresight activities in Japan have changed also their objectives. Their main role was to identify key or emerging technologies, looking into the development of science and technology and the expected changes in society.
Therefore, deriving the maximum benefit from foresight activities requires a carefully designed and actively driven transfer process of foresight results into research policy making.
Foresight activities provide such a view and are therefore a crucial element in a responsible allocation of public funds to research efforts in academia and industry.
Research policy makers do not just require the structured view of the future that foresight activities provide
With his summary of the key results of foresight activities in Germany in the early part of the last decade, he also illustrates once more their wide-ranging and interdisciplinary nature and hence the need for an active and carefully designed transfer to research policy making.
They are initiated wide-ranging dialogues by political sponsors of foresight activities and similar strategy processes and involve stakeholders from politics, academia, industry and society.
Table I their relevance to strategic dialogues for transferring the results of foresight activities and similar strategy processes into research policy development. 3. The situation in Germany To support research policy development the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research
Foresight activities have become more and more popular all over the world and the proliferation of foresight activities among all sorts of economies can be observed.
Also, the rule of foresight has changed from the previous explorative forecasting to more be come more oriented to strategic planning (Martin, 1995.
Japan has utilized the result of the 8th Foresight activity to form the Innovation 25 policy and the result of the 3rd Foresight activity of South korea has resulted in 21 future technology areas.
Also, China has used the result of foresight for selection of their critical technologies. Even in some small countries in Europe like Austria
During the input phase or preparatory phase of many different foresight activities, technology or research topic mapping by reviewing existing foresight activity is becoming more and more popular.
One such is called a foresight activity‘‘FISTERA, ''which is a large-scale technological foresight study that was designed to benchmark current information society technologies (ISTS)
Another famous example is the foresight activity mapping used by the European foresight monitoring Network (EFMN), a Europe-wide network inspired
and socioeconomic sectors which the collected foresight activity explicitly address, are fingerprinted based on the Frascati Manual classification and the NACE code classification,
In the foresight experience of small countries such as the foresight activity conducted in Austria named‘‘Delphi Austria,
''foresight activity was regarded as a‘‘search tool''to identify their strengths in R&d, and in particular to identify innovation potentials
It has been shown that fingerprinting of foresight activities by using a widely accepted or standard classification system will make it easier to take a cross-foresight comparison and for analysis. Therefore, a structured mapping method that uses a worldwide accepted international classification system i e.
) Previous publications have proved that the technique is established an method for foresight activities and that Delphi outperforms other group formats such as statistical groups or standard interacting groups in terms of effectiveness (Rowe and Wright, 1999).
Table I summarizes the basic information for the scanned foresight reports and details for their foresight activities.
, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan The Ministry of Science and Technology of the Republic of korea Ministry of Science and Technology agency or organization responsible for the foresight activity Science and Technology foresight Center, National Institute
In addition, the content of Delphi topics depends on the time horizon of the foresight activities. For example, the foresight activity of Japan has up to a 30-year time horizon,
and hence the technology trends provided by the scanned Delphi survey will provide a long-term view while the result from patent analysis for CTI or for forecasting provide a short-term view.
but the forecasting time horizon for the whole foresight activity was set at up to the year 2020, by
The result of the analysis is based on the foresight activities of three large Northeast Asian countries and some of the technology interactions are prospected differently by these three countries.
Chang. 74 (2007) 413 432.41 M. S. Jørgensen, Visions and visioning in foresight activities, in: K. Borch, S m. Dingli, M. S. Jorgensen (Eds.
The US and Germany differ with regard to their commitment to national-level foresight activities (as a highly comprehensive form of FTA.
Concepts and Practice, 2008, pp. 154 169.33 K. Cuhls, From forecasting to foresight processes new participative foresight activities in Germany, J. Forecast. 22 (2003) 93 111.34
One prominent example is the case of priority setting for science, technology and innovation policy a highly relevant domain of foresight activities.
and have been used to some extent in other foresight activities. However the combination of those four features has not been described before
which the foresight activity is embedded. This landscape includes local economic, political and sociocultural contexts that might differ from region to region.
The key point of view here is that history matters in the sense that foresight activities are inspired often by earlier activities in other countries.
but the foresight activities of each country might reflect, to a higher degree, sociocultural traditions of power distance and uncertainty avoidance than foresight traditions in neighbouring countries. 3. The Danish context in relation to foresight The intention of this section is to sketch elements of Danish‘‘style
This principle ensures that foresight activities are connected to both local and international decision-making structures. Overall, due to the heterogeneity of global projects, all four principles must also be implemented in keeping with a scalable design approach. 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
Previously, Fabiana was leading for more than 4 years the Foresight activities implemented by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (DG JRC-IPTS) located in Seville (Spain.
what extent networked foresight activities exist and how they are practiced. For the former the Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM) is utilized as analytical framework
The foresight activities are analyzed in terms of type scope and role. The cases are a collaboration between government agencies and a research organization and two inter-organizational networks of different size.‘
However, the rooting and openness of foresight activities in the three networks varies significantly. The advantages that‘networked foresight'entails could be exploited to a much higher degree for the networks themselves, e g.,
and by analyzing foresight activities therein in terms of type, scope, and their respective roles. In the next section the concept of networked foresight is approached in two ways:
Special emphasis therein is placed on foresight activities. The subsequent case-specific discussions are followed by a cross-case evaluation.
and innovation networks and assessing the use of networked foresight activities this study uses a multi-case design.
the link of future orientation, futures research and the network is analyzed by connecting the CIM analysis with the character of the foresight activities. 3. 2. Analytical framework 3. 2. 1. The Cyclic Innovation Model The main
They merely reflect the state of each case concerning the planned and actual network orientation concerning futures research activities. 3. 2. 3. Categorizing the networked foresight activities The implementation of the identified networked foresight activities is structured according to the three roles of foresight
We reuse these three roles to categorize the individual networked foresight activities in the three cases below.
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 66 field and carries out various foresight activities organized in separate programs and projects.
while also making sure that the internal components of the network were aligned. 4. 1. 5. Networked foresight activities Foresight activities inside Rijkswaterstaat
Specifically, the partners are supported at several stages of the Table 3 Networked foresight activities in Rijkswaterstaat.
The integration of new partners with additional competences, ideas and insights broaden the innovation potential of the network. 4. 2. 5. Networked foresight activities Futures research activities are conducted in particular within the innovation management unit of EICT.
and EICT as an innovation network is addressed not within the foresight activities of the innovation management unit.
In Table 4 the identified foresight activities within EICT are listed, briefly described and their character stated. 4. 3. Case 3:
The EIT governing board developed an overarching Strategic Table 4 Networked foresight activities at the EICT Gmbh.
However, foresight activities aimed at the transition path have already been established: the aforementioned innovation radar helps ensure that the EIT ICT Labs
Networked foresight activities Within the EIT ICT Labs various foresight activities can be observed. The partners receive financial grants for their participation
In Table 5 the foresight activities are summarized briefly and their type is stated. 5. Evaluation of the cases In this section,
Table 5 Networked foresight activities in the EIT ICT Labs. No. Activity Short description Type 3. 1 Action lines Bundle R&d activities in preselected thematic fields,
and network orientation. 5. 1. 1. Networked foresight activities Foresight activities were limited to workshops, moderated discussions and other meetings either as stand-alone events or as series of events (activity 1. 4). Predominantly,
the foresight activities were used to develop strategic guidance for the future in water management, to identify new business opportunities
The opponent role was addressed ancillary within business case analyses (Fig. 2). Two factors were identified to significantly influence the results of the foresight activities.
As a result, most networked foresight activities within WINN were rather ad hoc, took place just once,
and Deltares (Table 6). Based on the CIM evaluation and the analyzed foresight activities the following conclusions can be drawn for Rijkswaterstaat:
Within WINN foresight activities were primarily singular activities, either with the contract partners Rijkswaterstaat and Deltares or with selected participants.
and future orientation based on the CIM. 5. 2. 1. Networked foresight activities The partners use EICT's competences in foresight mainly on a project basis and for specific thematic topics;
In Table 7 the foresight activities provided by EICT are listed, their scope is shown and matched to the three roles of foresight.
Based on the CIM evaluation and the analyzed foresight activities the following conclusions can be drawn for EICT:
and knowledge exchange. 2. Beneficiaries of networked foresight activities are the network partners within the predefined project settings. 3. For developing the process model,
EICT's own foresight competences could complement these meetings. 4. The existing foresight activities could be utilized to capture external developments adequately to guide EICT prepare it for the future. 5. Foresight would benefit from additional network partners that add to the existing knowledge base.
Table 6 The scope of the foresight activities in Rijkswaterstaat and their matching to the roles of foresight according to Rohrbeck & Gemu nden 5. No.
and openness. 5. 3. 1. Networked foresight activities In the EIT ICT Labs 10 foresight activities with varying roles
In Table 8 the foresight activities are matched to the three roles defined by Rohrbeck and Gemu nden 5. Additionally,
Table 7 The scope of the foresight activities in the EICT and their matching to the roles of foresight according to Rohrbeck & Gemu nden 5. No.
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 74 3. Some networked foresight activities, e g.,, the innovation radar, are used to provide the basis for the process model of the network especially
and guide the future of the network. 5. 4. Cross-case evaluation 5. 4. 1. Toward networked foresight within the three cases In Fig. 5 the classification of the foresight activities in terms scope
nonrecurring foresight activities are conducted. These are managed by RWS with support by Deltares and partly with additional external participants.
The foresight activities are mostly mid-to short-term activities within Table 8 The scope of the foresight activities in the EIT ICT Labs
Foresight activities are longer-term activities than in the other two cases. They are either completely open to outsiders or limited to the network partners.
1. In all three cases the foresight activities are used as information sources for initializing new activities internally within the network partner organizations (outside-in.
2. In all three cases the network partners contribute information to the foresight activities independently from further use therein (inside-out.
Additionally, foresight activities in the WINN and EIT ICT Labs cases are used to provide information for guiding,
and analyzing foresight activities therein in terms of type, scope and role of each activity. The scope comprises contributors
Fig. 5. Foresight activities from the cases matched to foresight roles, scope and type of activity.
Long-term foresight activities are conducted predominantly within the large network of the EIT ICT Labs. The same is true for foresight activities that are open to new participants.
the analysis implicates that networked foresight activities are more likely to be activities with a certain degree of continuity, i e.,
. Cuhls, Methoden der Technikvorausschau eine international U bersicht, Fraunhofer IRB Verlag, Karlsruhe, 2008.21 K. Cuhls, From forecasting to foresight processes new participative foresight activities
In general, the paper also recommends connecting horiizo scans to more focused foresight activities. It concludes with a proposal to build a European netwoor for using joint scan data
One of the aims of this network was to initiate joint transnational (foresight activities which combined the foresight activities of at least 3 5 of the foresight programming bodies.
To achieve this a pilot project the Joint Horizon project was launched, focused on assessing the feasibility
when problems have accumulated this picture can be used to scope further (foresight activities to align key stakeholders
and maps foresight activities all over the world) were undertaken (called Dynaam and consisting of foresight project briefs and other documents).
are centralized the foresight activities or decentrallized (e g. within a specific ministry or done individually in each agency with no central suppoor or supported by some central foresight body or outside research institute or both) In your opinion, has done your country anything unique that is making foresight work in your conteex
In Japan, S&t foresight activities feature a recurriin national iterative Delphi technology poll, and also include a quarterly international journal.
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