National Institute of Science and Technology policy (NISTEP (Ed.),Comprehensive analysis of Science and Technology Benchmarking and Foresight report no. 99, Tôkyô:
and report on it, for example through submitting yearly or multi-annual foresight reports. The institutional arrangements in Finland are trend-setting in this regard
Prime minister's Office is in charge of the work for each government foresight report. The work is carried out in co-operation especially with the Ministries relevant as regards the topic of the foresight report
as well as with other ministries and public organisations. Also a large group of experts from research institutes, private companies,
In 2008-2009 The Finnish Prime minister's Office coordinated the construction of the government foresight report on climate and energy policy (Prime minister's Office, 2009.
In the course of the work for the foresight report discussed here, the government commissioned several studies on issues concerning the effects
Furthermore, one part of the work done for the foresight report, and the part on which this paper concentrates, was a scenario process aimed at depicting possible end states
Before and partly simultaneously while preparing the government foresight report on climate and energy policy, the government also decided on a long-term climate
whereas in the foresight report work it was set up for 2050. These two works (foresight report and strategy) supported
and complemented each other. Before FFRC was invited to facilitate the scenario process, the Prime minister's Office had identified already the desired goal for the year 2050:
The results of these calculations are presented in the Government Foresight report (Prime minister's Office, 2009, pp. 160-184.
External and internal evaluations The Government Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy was completed and approved in the government and by Parliament in October 2009.
One has to bear in mind that the evaluation concerned the whole foresight report, of which the FFRC's scenario work represented only one part.
and the full scenarios were published only as attachments in the completed foresight report. All in all, three evaluations of the government futures report were conducted where the scenario process was discussed also:
The Committee for the Future (2011) supported the government foresight report. The Committee had its own analyses of the Finnish climate policy made on three aspects:
The Committee also paid attention in its statement to the fact that the government foresight report chose as its only starting point the success of the Copenhagen Climate Agreement.
In the evaluation of government foresight report by Wilenius (2011), attention was drawn to the fact that the government foresight report could have dug deeper into the economic implications of climate and energy policy
The extent of constructing scenarios in the government foresight report was defined as unique and pioneering. Wilenius (2011) recommends the application of scenarios in the future as well,
and proposes that the focus in developing foresight reports should be, e g. on how scenario techniques could deal with long-term goals and path dependences to a more detailed degree.
2011 for those involved in the foresight report work to discuss retrospectively the process and reflect on the impacts of the foresight report.
Government Climate Policy Specialist Oras Tynkkynen who was responsible for the preparation of the report in the Prime minister's Office 3,
An open question remains how various ministries will connect themselves in implementing the recommendations and conclusions in Government Foresight report.
2. The scenario titles are here in the form that they are presented in Government Foresight report (Prime minister's Office, 2009.
''3. The work for the foresight report was supervised by a ministerial working group. References A°kerman, J. 2011),‘Transport systems meeting climate targets.
Prime minister's Office (2009), Government Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy: Towards a Low-carbon Finland, Prime minister's Office Publication 30/2009, available at:
Assessment of the Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy'',Prime minister's Office, Helsinki, Prime minister's Office Publications 3/2011, available at:
Such response may be amplified by foresight reports, such as the roadmaps on the hydrogen economy (Bakker, van Lente, and Meeus 2011).
This mutual positioning again may be reinforced by foresight reports that stipulate actions and agendas. The term‘self-fulfilling prophecy'has now become so familiar that the term itself seems to explain the phenomenon,
and associating the future technology themes in foresight reports with a state of the-art-the art technology classification system. The objective of this paper is to develop an integrative method for systematically clustering,
if this structured analysis could be applied more broadly across different geographic regions or across research areas in foresight reports.
Meanwhile, the communication effect of Delphi studies and the value of the process are acknowledged also. 2. 2 Basic information for the scanned Delphi topics The Delphi topics used for sustainable energy are chosen from foresight reports from Japan, South korea and China.
Table I summarizes the basic information for the scanned foresight reports and details for their foresight activities.
By proper selection of sustainable energy related topics, the Delphi topics were extracted first based upon their original category in the foresight reports.
Delphi topics collected from the scanned foresight reports are diversified somehow and have subtle differences in the scope of their descriptions.
I Basic information for scanned foresight reports from Japan, South korea and China Japan South korea China Report Title The 8th Science and Technology foresight Survey Delphi Analysis Prospect of future society
Table II Overall procedures for mapping of Delphi topics Procedure Description Step 1 Collect Delphi topics from foresight reports of Japan, South korea and China Step 2
Select topics related to sustainable energy based on the original category in the foresight reports and confirmed by domain experts Step 3 Identify the technology/product keywords
and implications Since the time horizons surveyed in the three scanned foresight report are different, the Delphi topics need to be screened again based on their realization time for cross-country comparison.
Within the SESTI project, a number of foresight reports in the field of energy and healthcare were processed with text-mining.
in previous published thematic foresight report as well as in recently published policy documents Text-mining can show the policy related terms.
Also via examinattio of relevant thematic foresight reports and recently published policy documents Meta descriptions of issues can be discussed in Workshops with experts
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