The paper analyses the implementation of The irish foresight exercise and the main outputs generated. It connects the results of the project with the literature on foresight
Section 3 presents the methodology used in The irish case study. The main results from the foresight exercise on global drivers,
This work was to follow the foresight exercise reported here, but the engagement with workshop participants indicated that there was a need for greater understanding of the pathways,
the foresight exercise undertaken in Ireland became a participatory, bottom-up process that assembled grand challenges by combining knowledge on drives
Many individual foresight exercises are devoted specifically to the rational use of natural resources and environment protection. These aspects are analysed also during the course of various foresight studies undertaken in such sectors as transport, energy, agriculture, etc.
As the result of this foresight exercise a large database of promising S&tareas was created, with integrated scores for all selected criteria.
Valette 32 points at opportunities for foresight exercises that combine expert-based contrasted socioeconomic and policy scenarios (qualitative part) and a mathematical quantification of the impacts of the alternative scenarios (quantitative part)( p. 239.
and at the JRC-IPTS she is developing a specific interest in their combination and application in foresight exercises.
managed several national S&t foresight exercises in Russia, participated in dozens of international projects. Alexander Sokolov is a member of a number of high-level expert groups at the OECD and other international organisations. 397 K. Haegeman et al./
Porter et al. 1 argued that foresight exercises could not comprehensively explore the full range of scenarios that is encompassed by the many irreducible uncertainties encountered
The 3rd SCAR foresight exercise (see Appendix 1) also falls into this group with its focus on research priorities
In the project report, the insights of the foresight exercise are used to articulate the research priorities. Still, the implementation could be improved with regards to knowledge dissemination e g. education
Last accessed on 29/06/11 and available in Dutch at http://www. duwobo. be/index. cfm. 5. 2nd SCAR Foresight exercise EC (2008), New challenges for agricultural research:
The 2nd SCAR Foresight exercise. Last accessed on 29/06/11 and available at http://ec. europa. eu/research/agriculture/scar/pdf/scar 2nd foresight exercise en. pdf 6. 3rd SCAR Foresight exercise EC (2011), Sustainable
food consumption and production in a resource-constrained world. 3rd Foresight exercise. European commission DG RTD, Directorate E Unit E. 4, Brussel. 7. Prelude EEA (2006) Prelude (PROSPECTIVE Environmental analysis of Land use Development in Europe) scenarios.
Available at http://www. eea. europa. eu/multimedia/interactive/prelude-scenarios/prelude. 8. The world in 2025 European commission (2009
Vision Structural transformation Inductive approach Foresight methodology Innovation pattern Visualisation Scenarios Weak signals 1. Introduction Envisioning structural transformation in foresight exercises is challenging.
many foresight exercises do not look into paradigm shifts but rather tackle different variants of the established system view.
and ideas across stakeholder groups is suitable for meeting the objectives of the foresight exercise. For a growing number of cases, however
In Section 2 we outline the methodological framework of the INFU foresight exercise and highlight in particular the features that were foreseen to enable the capture of structural transformation.
This leads us to the conclusion that some of the features of the INFU methodology proved indeed suitable for tackling structural transformation in foresight exercises.
Accordingly, we conclude that similar approaches could serve in other foresight exercises to uncover and transcend perception filters.
By evaluating six Dutch Foresight exercises from the point of view of policy makers as‘‘users''of foresight studies they highlight the importance of taking into account differences between the national and local level when designing an FTA PROCESS.
Many foresight exercises have had no impact on policy-making. This lack of impact has led policy-makers to require that the content of foresight exercises relate to current political agendas
and that their processes relate to policy making processes 1. Academic research has explored also this issue, focusing on different characterisations and typologies of foresight projects 2 3. The literature has suggested that foresight must be an integral part of policy-making processes 4,
and Values) that affect the content of a foresight exercise. The internal context relates to the structures and behaviours of the organisation or system in
which a foresight exercise is organised and carried out. This organisation or system includes all parties and institutions (e g. administrative system and political system) that are involved in the performance of a foresight process and implementation of the results.
The power distance dimension has implications for societies'need for subordinate consultation and thus for participatory elements of foresight exercises.
There are most likely few risks affiliated with carrying out significant foresight exercises but implementing the results into real policies might be difficult in a society with more uncertainty avoidance.
A more careful investigation might reveal that societies with lower levels of uncertainty avoidance might be less willing to launch significant foresight exercises
but more willing to implement bold new policies that may result from a foresight exercise. The second implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to the meaning of time
The Danish hybrid Hofstede's cultural typology needs to be supplemented with a socioeconomic typology in order effectively to analyse the national specificity of foresight exercises.
This hybrid socioeconomic position of Denmark combined with the cultural aspects of low levels of power distance and uncertainty avoidance have important implications for the specificity of the foresight exercises in Denmark.
which a foresight exercise is carried out reflects three factors, of which two are the most important. The first factor is the contextual landscape in
Expertise refers to the skills and knowledge of individuals in the particular area of the foresight exercise.
responsible organisations as a foresight exercise or as having used foresight methods. Nevertheless, the Globalisation Council's process included both expertiseorieente foresight methods (expert panels, expert discussion papers), evidence-oriented foresight methods (indicators and fact reports) and interaction-oriented foresight methods
The case of Trendbureau of Overijssel includes different foresight exercises for strategic policy processes of city councils and the provincial organisation itself, focusing on different policy themes.
the spin-off of the foresight exercise was the creation of a common understanding, which relates to the function of reconfiguring the policy system,
which in turn implies that foresight exercises can lead to the reconfiguration of a policy system and increase its ability to meet major challenges.
Generally speaking, it is difficult to assess the impact of a foresight exercise by making a direct connection with a specific strategic decision.
and management of global foresight exercises building on the experience of designing and managing the Intelligent Manufacturing Systems (IMS) 2020 project.
This principle ensures that participants position the foresight exercise and their own activities in a global context.
and our experiences with a global foresight exercise that is described in Section 3. The four principles are:
Here one of the major challenges is embed to the global foresight exercise in different local regional and national systems as well as within international sectoral networks and institutions.
when organising global foresight exercises. Table 1 summarises the main lessons learned using four principles that need to be taken into consideration when designing and managing an international foresight exercise.
It highlighted some of the challenges in organising global foresight exercises. For instance, the scalable design was crucial for adapting to geographical dispersion and the large number of participants.
It also shows that it is beneficial to have all these principles embedded in the design of a foresight exercise
The concept is based on the tradition of regulatory impact assessments and foresight exercises. Regulatory foresight is conceived as strategic activity undertaken by governments and policy-makers responsible for regulatory regimes to shape
The overall aim of the paper is to develop an impact assessment framework for foresight exercises to assess the degree to which they promote the development of‘participatory knowledge societies.'
Different from more policy oriented institutional Foresight exercises, IF is focused more on New Product development processes, where stakeholders,
The interview results indicate that success is defined ultimately as the impact of the foresight exercise on government policy,
and Decker (2004) similarly identified the broad impacts of foresight exercises which they divided into technological/scientific aspects
both direct and indirect, associated with foresight exercises. Howevver what should be the dominant benefit of foresigght For determining success we need to clearly identify
and experiences Highlighting the need for systemic approaches to both policy making and innovation Stimulation of others to conduct their own foresight exercise after being inspired Accumulation of relevant experience in how to think about the future
and positive image of those running a foresight exercise Better understanding of a territory's strengths and competencies Finally,
Governments (both national and subnatiional and government agencies were the main sponsors of foresight exercises accounting for 95%of the sample.
what they were doiin (foresight exercises) and actual policy. Direct links to senior policy-makers: To have a better understanding of policy needs,
Towards a typology for evaluating foresight exercises. Paper presented at EU US Seminar: New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assesssmen Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain.
They draw on the foresight exercise‘Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges'(Boden et al. 2010) to illustrate how horizon scanning can enable collective sense-making processes which assist in the identification of emerging signals and policy issues, the synthesis of such issues into encompassing clusters,
Efforts towards better communication among participants are decisive for successful foresight exercises. This paper stresses that the intangibles are important outcomes,
It is important for everyone participating in a given foresight exercise to not be afraid to attempt new ways of thinking (Kelley and Littman, 2001.
at the end of a foresight exercise, for stakeholders to say that‘the process was as more important than the product'.
which have been identified, is observed often among participants in the initial phase of the foresight exercise. This anxiety must be controlled by those coordinating the project,
Foresight exercises help to overcome these limits and build a convergent reasoning process based on best practiice in organizational learning.
Efficiencies linked to foresight exercises are associated usually with some of the intangibles that are generated, if not with all of them.
3. The value of out-of-the-box thinking in a foresight exercise The concept of out-of-the-box thinking adopted in this paper is related to learning organization theory (Tosey 2005.
In foresight exercises developed by CGEE, mind-set revision involves the participation of experts and stakeholdders applying a variety set of methods and tools,
and for applyiin a variety of methods and tools to bring the main issues impacting a given foresight exercise to the table.
and plan the foresight exercise with a sense of anticipation, pointing out where participants find the most difficult points
Challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 249 The foresight exercise itself comprises three distinct phases:
Foresight exercises are exposed usually to some dangerrou pitfalls throughout their development. It is imporrtan to note,
Foresight exercises and innovaatio strategies are interconnected and it is imporrtan to stress the possible influence and impacts from other business segments.
despite reporting on experiences derived from a single foresight exercise, indicate increasing evidence of institutionalised forms of FTA.
2011) address the importance of engaging stakeholders in foresight exercises from the very beginning in order to improve support for policy options and their implications.
Moreover, they conclude that foresight exercises carried out in smaller countries require international support. International cooperaation in particular when assisted by FTA networks,
The purpose of its current foresight exercise is to explore the potential development of international science over the next two decades in a changing economic, social, political and environmental context.
To this end, the conduct of the foresight exercise has been synchronized closely with the development of the ICSU strategic plan 2012 7 (ICSU 2011a)
This paper sets out to describe the conduct of the ICSU foresight exercise with a view to identifying lessons for future foresight exercises carried out in international arenas.
The 2002 foresight exercise had explicitly set out to identify priority areas of science for ICSU to focus upon in its new strategic plan (ICSU 2006.
Foresight exercises depend upon a number of different resources, including financial, human and relational capital, for their success. Given the limited capacity in the ICSU Secretariat,
Foresight exercises usually demand broad participation for their success . But the depth of this participation is also a significant success factor.
This infrastructure provided a wide and diverse base for eliciting views during the foresight exercise. However
The time horizon of the foresight exercise had to be beyond ICSU's usual planning horizons of 5 10 years.
were used extensively. 3. 2 The three phases of ICSU foresight The foresight exercise entailed three phases as follows:.
and access to research programmes and results across all countries Mapping and analysis of existing foresight exercises for urban regions and for other non-region specific topics relevant for urban development allows gaps
to be identified where additional foresight exercises may be needed Development of an SRF that sets out likely directiion of technological
and publish shared priorities on a transnatiiona programme level Mapping of foresight exercises at all governance levels Establishment of a UEF,
and supported novel research collaboration across research fields Foresight exercise is multi-disciplinary. It aims to include stakeholders from other disciplines in priority setting
On the eve of initiating a foresight exercise and scoping its research programme it is often premature for many national agencies to decide on their level of committmen to that programme and its planning.
if only because the foresight exercise produces information about the relevance and attainability of these very objectives.
and execute large-scale foresight exercises according to a clear‘bluepriint (Havas 2003). Salo et al. 2004) argue that responsiveness to shifting objectives
Food Security and Climate change have no openness to other EU Member States. 7. Platforms collecting data on foresight exercises can offer deeper insights into possible and desired futures of research priorities, e g.<
scientific articles, statisttica analysis, trend reports and foresight exercises. The storyline may address conflicts or common interests as well as emotional, ethical and legal aspects.
totti. konnola@impetusolutions. com. In this paper, we discuss key issues in harnessing horizon scanning to shape systemic policies, particularly in the light of the foresight exercise‘Facing the future:
and phases of foresight exercise‘Facing the future'(Boden et al. 2010). Facing the future: Horizon scanning. 225 developed using a participatory approach.
we have presented the foresight exercise‘Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges'which has informed the strategy processes of BEPA
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