System

Complex system (57)
Critical system (12)
Environmental system (7)
National system (16)
New system (5)
Socioeconomic system (10)
System (1351)
System alternatives (9)
System configuration (6)
System innovation (7)
Systems thinking (16)

Synopsis: System: System:

There was no discussion of data based systems only judgement based systems. A wide range of F. Scapolo/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1059 1063 1060 techniques and tools were used in complex combinations

and the focus on policy formulation was tight. One problem, which was highlighted, was the tendency to compensate for difficulty in handling combined techniques by narrowing the scope of the study

In the paper entitled dthe role of Scanning in Open Intelligent Systemst, Patton describes the system in place in SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE to scan the environment

& Social Change 72 (2005) 1059 1063 1062 process on how the system operates, the players involved,

and the type of products the system generates, including some examples. The two following articles, focusing on Technology assessment (TA) and, using as case study nanotechnology,

Navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies E. Anders Eriksson A k. Matthias Weber b a FOI Defence Analysis, SE-16490 Stockholm, Sweden b ARC systems

Therefore, a consolidated integration of analytical and exploratory scientific methods (e g. system analysis and modelling) on the one hand and of participatory processes and interactions with experts and stakeholders on the other would help enhance the scientific credibility of foresight results. 7‘Environmental scanning'along the lines

Note that we have chosen to pursue this general discussion in the context of systems that deliver tangible products

, energy production systems or national security that adaptive options should be added to the fixed (either robust in their own right or contributing to package level robustness) and flexible ones.

say, infrastructural systems here turn fuzzy. Few truly fixed options are useful, e g. no innovation-oriented research programme can be sustained successfully for a longer period without skilful management.

Embedded systems, to take an example from the information and telecommunication technologies, are expected to have a very positive impact within an optimistic information society scenario.

Niche Management 25 and Transition Management 26.14 FANTASIE Forecasting and Assessment of New Transport Technologies and Systems and their Impact on the Environment,

these focal issues are usually related to societal goals at fairly aggregate levels (How can we achieve an overarching transition towards a more sustainable energy supply system?.

These projects cover a range of different application areas like production systems, transport and mobility systems, regional innovation systems, information and communication technologies and energy technologies.

Systems Approaches and Their Application: Examples from Sweden, Kluwer, Dordrecht, 2003.20 B. Schwarz, K c. Bowen,

I. Oehme, H. Rohracher, P. Späth, Transition zu nachhaltigen Produktionssystemen (Transition to sustainable production systems), Research report, ARC systems research, Vienna, 2005.40 B

Dr. K. Matthiasweber is head of Technology policy Department at Austrian Research centres systems research. Over the past years, he has been contributing to and leading several foresight exercises at European, national, regional and sectoral level,

Apart from foresight methodologies, his main research interests are in the governance of research and innovation systems, in the transformation of large socio-technical systems towards sustainability

, Internet-based group-support systems, facilitated workshops, RPM Screening) were employed to foster vision-building, networking and priority setting in the development of a shared research agenda for an international research program. 3. Shaping of research agendas in Woodwisdom-Net Woodwisdom-Net4 was started in 2004 as one of the ERA NETS supported by European union.

Change 70 (2003) 619 637.14 J. S. Metcalfe, Technology systems and technology policy in an evolutionary framework, Camb.

2005) is Researcher and doctoral student at the Systems analysis Laboratory of Helsinki University of Technology, with research interests in foresight, decision support systems and strategic decision making.

Ahti Salo (M. Sc. 1987, D. Tech. 1992) is Professor at the Systems analysis Laboratory with research interests in decision analysis, decision support systems, technology foresight, and risk management.

Methodologies and selected applications Knut Blind Regulation and Innovation Competence Center Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research, Germany Berlin University of Technology, Faculty Economics and Management

but especially general aspects of the future regulatory system. Most efficient are assessed the requirement to use plain language when drafting regulations, the harmonisation and coordinnatio of the regulatory policies of different regulation bodies, the instalment of One-Stop Shops responsible for all regulation

In the area of standards as parts of the regulatory system we are able to reference a series of relevant surveys.

the Japanese experts call for adjustments in the regulatory framework, especially in the information and communication field, for instance, the widespread use of electronic money, electronic voting or automated trading systems in their Sixth Japanese Delphi Report

The role of standardisation is highest for the realisation of highly reliable network systems capable of protecting the privacy

Regulation is required especially for the implementation of systems capable of understanding and automatically checking the content of image data unsuitable for children

of highly reliable network systems capable of protecting the privacy and secrecy of individuals and groups from the intrusion of ill-intentioned network intruders. 2010 4. 88 4. 17 3. 13 1. 86 4. 28 Realisation of an environment in

4. 03 3. 30 3. 83 2. 13 3. 90 Widespread use of systems which facilitate multimedia communication from anywhere in the world using pocketbook-size portable terminals

. 2010 3. 31 3. 70 2. 67 2. 50 3. 83 Development of an optical transmission system capable of high-volume transmission of 1

. 40 Practical use of systems capable of understanding and automatically checking the content of image data unsuitable for children

73 3. 00 A service that evaluates the security of the e-commerce system of individual companies

like the patent or copyright system, longer time ranges may be appropriate. In order to illustrate and analyse different regulatory options,

In addition he is head of the competence center Regulation and Innovation of the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research.

Strategy support system; Constructive technology assessmentavailable online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 Corresponding author.

Activities in the FTA programme focus on designing tools and support systems which allow the Frontiers network to develop strategies for a number of different issues relevant to particular areas within nanotechnologies for the life sciences.

A map of paths can be embedded as a central element in a support system to articulate the most robust8 strategy for research groups, start-ups and programme committees (strategic/strategy support system, SSS.

An ongoing strategy support system needs to stay aware of the field, allowing the assessment of

The long term aim is to package MPM as a strategic support system for start-up (and more mature) companies.

This system comprises a number of tailorized FTA/SI tools. It is being built around the notion of the‘deployment cycle'

labelled as a Micro Total Analysis System (TAS). The agenda was set to miniaturise existing laboratory analysis instrumentation

where ad hoc integrations of a number of the necessary systems for lab-on-a-chip devices are explored

Examples could be a microfluidic channel, a fluid mixing system, a sample injector, positioner, sensor etc.

and combine them into an experimental platform for systems research such as protein analysis in the lab (moving from phase 1 to phase 2). Such an integration of a number of devices into an experimental system is undertaken usually in a university laboratory.

Such integrated systems are complicated bulky and to handle, operate and maintain, and thus are only suitable for laboratory use.

and other microscale flow-based cell analysis systems have been investigated for cell detection. Microfluidic devices for cell treatment,

In a number of cases, some of these devices have been integrated into a simple experimental system (cf.

The first path shows a technology that is already present within a start-up company (as a prospective component of an integrated system)

in order to direct research and seek out possible actors who could co-construct an innovation chain based on the Strategic research Areas of Frontiers. 2. Broadening the perspectives of the practitioners participating in the exercise to test the robustness of MPM as part of a strategy support system

if there is one system integrator which targets a specific application and builds its network based around this.

but must be part of a system of technologies to be enabled. 22 Furthermore, the workshop participants recognized the difficulty of researchers in public institutions getting credit in developing integrated platforms.

In the University of Twente case, we see a spin-off company becomes the system integrator for a specific application.

In the University of Hull case, we see a research group becomes the systems integrator and builds its network around them with a view to transition to a company after proof of concept. 6. Discussion

For reflexive alignment within research networks or firms it would seem advantageous that a‘strategy support system'(SSS) should be developed as a toolbox to be used without external help.

The strategy support systems will be developed further for different technology fields being investigated within the framework of the Frontiers research programme.

This network level strategy support system is somewhat abstract from specific technological issues, such as cell-on-a-chip;

a young start-up company initiated in February 2006 with intentions to be the systems integrator of a lab-on-a-chip device focused on a specific application in the medical sector.

The social Construction of Technological Systems: New Directions in the Sociology and History of Technology, The MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts, 1987.37 P. A. David, Clio and the economics of QWERTY, American Economic Review, vol

Electrophoresis-Based Chemical analysis System on Chip, Science 261 (1993)( 5123). 53 H. Andersson, A. Van den berg, Microfluidic devices for cellomics:

system in combination with optical tweezers for analyzing rapid and reversible cytological alterations in single cells upon environmental changes Tools and Resources, Lab Chip (7)( 2007) 71 76.61 L

'This framework should be capable of explaining the interdependencies and inter-relationships between system elements such as actors, processes, inputs, outputs and impacts,

as well as the interaction of the system with the broader socio-technological-economic-political environment. Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 Corresponding author.

such as the evolution of knowledge societies and participatory governance systems, and the lower level sets of goals that have to be attained

and activities likely to lead to the attainment of both lower and higher level system goals,

and factors affecting the development of these societies are intertwined with those influencing the development of participatory governance systems:

Typically, logic model approaches start with specific programme goals and objectives and attempt to identify paths to potential goal attainment by treating foresight programmes as systems comprised of a number of basic elements, namely context, actors, processes

and analyse weak signals to‘foresee'changes in the future Produce future oriented material for the system to use AP:

Supporting innovation-based growth Achievement of long-term reform of the productive system through a raised emphasis on high technology Making the case for increased investment in R&d More informed STI priorities

Aligning actors Support the empowerment of system actors Build trust between system actors N: Facilitate networking Form new networks

and influence their appearance within specific foresight contexts (seen as systems comprised of actors, objectives, processes,

If the system variables turn out to be highly contextual, then the possibility of building a common impact assessment framework for foresight exercises based on their contribution to a more participatory‘knowledge society'irrespective of their specific context

If some system elements are contextual but others are independent of the context and specificities of the cases examined,

and the existence of a certain degree of fragmentation in the Swedish policy system (a negative factor.

as well as the interactions between these elements and the factors affecting the operation of the system,

the above discussion can shed some light firstly on the criteria/principles that should govern the elements of a Foresight (internal) System,

As regards the Foresight (internal) System, the actors can and should be characterised by interinstittutiona communication and collaboration, mutual interests and low dependence.

and factors affecting the development of these societies are intertwined with those influencing the development of participatory governance systems:

as well as the interaction of the system with the broader socio-technological-economic-political environment. The model presented in Fig. 3a

ii) the huge diversity of higher education systems and individual universities cannot be reflected;(iii) the role of other research actors,

Yet, the likely impacts of potential changes in these broader systems are analysed not at all in the reviewed FTA ACTIVITIES.

and learning systems, etc. 13,14, 27 30. Notwithstanding the above general considerations on the principal role of universities in creating knowledge,

with 30 48%of the relevant age cohort attending tertiary education in most OECD countries, we cannot speak of the same‘higher'education (HE) system.

and policy variables arising from the broader systems, in which universities are embedded in. As already argued, this paper takes the latter approach,

Then the European research and Innovation Area (ERIA) is taken into account as a‘mezzo level'system.

and sub-national regional level is skipped in either approach, given the huge diversity of the national (regional) education systems.

learning, learning capabilities and learning systems; the role of new players in producing, using and validating knowledge;

which these broader systems might evolve, and hence they might be equipped better to devise‘future-proof',robust strategies.

can be analysed by devising appropriate visions for these broader systems;(ii) the observed diversity of higher education systems and individual universities can be reflected by identifying appropriate ideal types (which,

in turn, can and should always be tailored to a specific research question);(iii) the role of other research actors,

This sort of analysis a structured set futures, taking into account the links among systems operating at different levels can be of relevance in other Triad regions, too,

Technicalchange and Economic theory, Pinter, London, 1988.11 C. Edquist (Ed.),Systems of Innovations: Technologies, Institutions and Organizations, Pinter, London, 1997.12 J. Fagerberg, D c. Mowery, R. R. Nelson (Eds.

if this technique can be developed more widely conjures up exciting possibilities for the anticipation of future innovation system developments.

Relearning Some Systems Lessons. The editors heartily agree and so apparently do the authors in this Special Edition.

In particular, under deep uncertainty, there is little agreement or consensus about system structure. Thus, exploratory modeling is used to explore Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 E-mail address:

Chesborough 11 describes a new paradigm of open innovation involving the design of technological systems which, in technological requirements, transcends the boundaries of a single firm.

The International Institute for Applied Systems analysis (IIASA) and others have examined the hierarchical embedding of infrastructure systems

Systems ecology for instance provides a formal theory of morphological change 20. A hierarchical random graph is a succinct recipe for generating

D). In this technology analysis application these nodes represent four component technologies of a system. These four nodes may be connected in sixtyfoou possible networks,

and as more noise is introduced into the system. However, we no longer have a single unique specification of the network the hierarchical random graph describes an ensemble of the sixty four possible graphs.

& Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 4. Results In this results section we apply the methodology described in the previous section to a specific system of new technologies.

Thus, they argue that the behavior of the system is determined exclusively by the structure of the network.

which seem logical given the induced structure of the technological system but which have not yet been realized.

and delivered by decision support systems, may contribute to an open innovation paradigm where firms work together as part of an extended technological network 11.

and therefore already present within the system. The author suggests that the original conception of architectural change,

An interactive system for finding complementary literatures: a stimulus to scientific discovery, Artif. Intell. 91 (2)( 1997) 183 203.11 H. Chesbrough, W. Vanhaverbeke, J. West, Open innovation:

b Department Urban Water management Research at Eawag, Switzerland c Institute of environmental Engineering at ETH Zurich, Switzerland d Competence Center Sustainability and Infrastructure Systems

at the German Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research ISI, Germany e Technology and Society Unit of The swiss Federal Institute of Materials Science and Technology (Empa

Relative to Technology foresight, we emphasize the implementation side of socio-technical systems, i e. we want to analyze under which conditions the receptiveness for innovative solutions could be increased,

but may also be applied to future system options and preference structures. Such a methodological framework is likely to depart in style and content from the currently dominant forms of strategic decision making in infrastructure sectors 5. While in conventional approaches

As the sustainability of the established technical system has raised some criticism 9, 10, new solutions to urban water management are discussed more widely today.

Socio-technical regimes create advantages for system development as they tend to reduce the costs of knowledge generation and the political costs of decision making 13.

which contrasts with mode 1 that focuses on the improvement of existing systems. Mode 2 foresight is about questioning the existing system,

initiating disruption, undermining existing world views, and raising the spectre of the incredible 19, p. 6. Potential solutions have to be reflected critically against the broad background of context scenarios

Linstone's multiple perspectives approach 35 argues for the enrichment of the traditional technical system's analysis with organizational and personal perspectives.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 integrated system-and demand-management perspective 38, p. 4. Some scenario projects show a variety of different land use

and stakeholder preferences for the assessment and making impacts of system choices transparent. To tackle this claim in an adequate way,

and system alternatives for an infrastructure system in the time horizon of 25 years which is congruent with the expected average lifetime of central infrastructure components.

The territorial delimitation is defined by the current spatial perimeter of the infrastructure system and may be enlarged for the identification of promising options.

The relevant groups are identified in the situation analysis (e g. by using system constellation methods 60 to identify the roles, intentions, power and interactions among the most influential and affected 1153 E. Störmer et al./

First, the core team elaborates a system representation of the regional wastewater system. Based on an analysis of technical reports

Secondly, the core team systematically evaluates the impacts of these context conditions on the infrastructure system relative to an encompassing list of performance goals.

Options are regarded as combinations of technical and organizational system characteristics that cover the entire process chain of the infrastructure service 64.

and (iv) profit from new technical options potentially emerging in the course of the lifetime of an infrastructure system.

The sanitation system has limited flexibility to adapt to changing context conditions as its key technical components have a very long life time (e g. sewer system last 80 years,

Communities own and operate most of the sanitation systems. Strategic decisions are taken by political delegates who rely on advice from their operators,

they are focused on the operation of the technical system rather than on the management of the integrated sanitation system.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 Based on a national analysis of The swiss sanitation system 69 and a call for participation in innovative strategic planning processes,

three more or less representative cases for small to medium-sized sanitation systems were selected as pilot cases of the RIF method.

Political actors of the region were keen on developing a perspective for the future of the sanitation system to avoid singular investments,

and defer the establishment of more appropriate structures of the sanitation system in the future. The regional development association of the Kiesental,

and exchanging perspectives about the sanitation system in the region. 4. 3. Constructing the trade-off landscape Based on this initiative,

The sanitation system was constructed in a way to accommodate the needs of two heavy polluting industries. In addition to technical and organizational aspects, the core team surveyed the actors in the regional sanitation landscape to select participants for the stakeholder workshops.

As a result, fourteen people representing the most influential and affected groups of the sanitation system were invited:

In the next step, criteria for assessing system performance were identified. Sanitation was implemented originally as a means to guarantee hygiene

In the following step, a set of options was developed by the core team, based on varying technical and organizational characteristics of a future wastewater system:

public subsidies to keep the system going and indiscriminate access to sanitation services. Environmental impact ranked only second in their priorities.

Strengths include the replacement of the cost intensive sewer network and the flexibility of the system, especially under downturn and top/flop scenarios.

Weaknesses incorporate the uncertainty about system reliability of the technology and uncertainties associated with service reliability,

and considerably increase the cost characteristics of the centralized system. For this reason the core team recommended that the introduction of onsite treatment facilities should be considered seriously in future maintenance and expansion plans.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 The elaboration of a joint system representation by the different organizations in the Kiese catchment furthermore prepared the ground for intensified collaboration and shared visions.

Optimization of the existing system components was the main target and not an analysis of the entire sanitation system.

While the RIF process in the Kiesental resulted in little surprise with the already prior favored idea for a future sanitation system,

One consequence was departed that decision makers from their initially strong position that only one big technical system was able to solve all future problems in the region.

and the catchment connected to the sanitation system across the board in Germany, a solution that had not seriously been taken into account before

and limited expansion capacities of the sanitation system opted for a strong professionalization option with potential expansion into other infrastructure services. 5. Implications

Technol. 43 (5)( 2001) 309 318.11 J. Markard, B. Truffer, Innovation processes in large technical systems:

Design 30 (6)( 2003) 885 909.30 B. Truffer, J. Voss, K. Konrad, Mapping expectations for system transformations:

Res. 158 (3)( 2004) 662 677.53 J. J. Winebrake, B. P. Creswick, The future of hydrogen fueling systems for transportation:

E. Störmer, Focus on actors initial experiences with system constellations in theory-based evaluations, Z. Eval. 7 (1)( 2008) 35 73.61 J. Mayers, Stakeholder power

Harald Hiessl is head of the Competence Center Sustainability and Infrastructure Systems at the German Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research ISI and the deputy of this Institute.

malfunction or error in an industrial system or operation leading to unwanted consequences. The time horizon considered typically is a couple of years maximum

and problem-driven approaches are taken 1. It is stressed also that it is important to see technology as part of a whole technological and societal system 11.

These fields are renowned for their complicated systems, where possible accidents may have far-reaching consequences. During the 1970s, a worldwide trend of increasing accidental losses in factories was recognised 14.

o data on the system being analysed and on all the associated substances, o operational model of the system under analysis, o systematic hazard identification procedure and risk estimation techniques,

Instead, the whole process should be understood as a complex socio-technical system in order to make the process safe.

A sure system tolerates errors or failures and protects itself against the consequences of such events 39.

The results of this analysis are presented in the following section. 3. 1. Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems (IRRIIS) A case study of the use of foresight

and scenario methods in a proactive risk assessment of telecommunication and electric power infrastructures was conducted in an EU funded project Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems (IRRIIS,

The project aims at assessing the development of the Nordic electricity system for the next 20 30 years.

It will focus on the potential production and the future safety of the production systems as well as on the related uncertainties.

and consequences of the climate change affecting the Nordic energy production system are developed in the project. The risk assessment procedure is developed at the first stage of a case study concerning Nordic hydropower production 37.

IRRIIS and CES especially reveal the gap between the future-oriented analysis and the technological system stressed risk assessment processes.

The risk is caused by a failure, deviation, malfunction or error in an industrial system or operation.

To identify possible future developments, driving forces, emerging technologies, barriers, threats and opportunities related to a broader socio-technoeconnomi system.

Risk analysis of Technological Systems, Geneva, Switzerland, 1995.21 Center for Chemical process Safety (CCPS), Guidelines for Hazard Evaluation Procedures, 2nd Ed. AICHE, New york, USA, 1992

and improved computer translation will allow more international foresight activities to build collective intelligence through participatory feedback systems far more complex than the current futures research methods.

chaotic systems While most physical and social systems are nonlinear, mathematical models and simulations of those systems usually use linear assumptions 4. The linear approximations are made

because linear equations are simpler to handle mathematically and over vast regions of operation the linear models provide a good match with reality.

Linear systems can be stable (that is when perturbed, the system settles to some stable value),

can oscillate (that is, when perturbed, the system settles into a periodic cycle), or can be unstable (that is when perturbed,

the system movements become very large and continually increase or decrease). When the systems are nonlinear,

however, a fourth state of behavior can be triggered: chaos. In this state, the system appears to be operating in random fashion,

generating what appears to be noise. In this state, the system behavior is still deterministic but essentially unpredictable.

The central premise of planning is that forecasting is possible. The policy sciences teach us to identify optimum policies by testing a set of prospective policies on models that simulate the real world

and choosing the policy that brings the model outcome closest to the desired outcome. But if the model and the real system are in a chaotic state,

the results of a policy may be exquisitely dependent on a number of factors other than the policy itself.

If a system that we attempt to control is T. J. Gordon et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 1066 nonlinear (that is, input and output are related not in a one-to-one fashion) and, through excessive feedback or bgain,

its behavior resembles random motion or noise), then prediction of the future of the system (interest rates,

In addition, historical precedent fails for systems that are operating in the chaotic mode. Since chaotic systems are very sensitive to initial conditions

history is no guide since conditions in the past were almost certainly different than the present. Do these arguments lead to the conclusion that modeling

but a whole new set of approaches to planning and systems management need to be invented.

What might be some of these new strategies for management of chaotic systems? Here are thoughts some:

Second, nonlinear models can be built to simulate real life systems that operate in a stable mode most of the time.

Such models can be used to find conditions that drive the systems they simulate into oscillatory or chaotic states.

policies can be found that move the system back toward stability. One of the authors (Gordon) found that slowing down the feedback tends to stabilize social systems exhibiting chaotic behavior.

if the system was in a chaotic state, it could be almost exactly correct in its match to reality

the analyst can identify the future limits of operation of a system and set plans to accommodate those limits, saying, in effect,

bi don't know precisely where the system is going, but I do know its limits.

Q Fifth, planners might use the attributes of a chaotic system (rapid response to very small impetus) to his or her benefit.

The problem of planning and management of systems operating in the chaotic regime is a frontier of great importance to our field.

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