Context

Changing context (6)
Context (681)
Context dependency (3)
Cultural context (7)
Global context (13)
Institutional context (9)
Socioeconomic context (9)
Wider context (7)

Synopsis: Context: Context:

and design This session concentrated on the three crucial elements of context, content and process

and identified that context was a main determining factor in shaping content and process. Trends were appearing in terms of focus of countries at different stages of economic development with those countries with lower development levels favouring a socioeconomic focus while those with higher levels of economic development lean towards a techno-economic focus.

and the need to adopt a systemic approach to integrating the context, content and process. 3. Models

A three-level framework on the case of nanotubes is presented to analyse and visualise the dynamics in three interrelated context:

This is done in the context of the third constituent, viz. a perspective on innovation as complex and largely unpredictable.

in Germany in the context of the Futur process 13, and in Hungary 14.466 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 influenced by its results.

for instance in terms of deriving basic strategies for dealing with the opportunities and threats that have been identified in the context of foresight exercises.

Note that we have chosen to pursue this general discussion in the context of systems that deliver tangible products

and services like fire protection, rather than in the context of innovation and technology development.)8 See in particular the online guide of the EU Forlearn project (http://forlearn. jrc. es/guide/0 home/index. htm),

In the context of one-shot decisions these are flexible options. Such options may be acquired by a one-shot decision

(strategic decision-making In the context of that example there is obviously no scope for sequential strategic decision-making in the sense of acquiring fire-protection assets once information on a beginning fire starts coming in 10

It will depend on the context of use and on often politically defined framework conditions what kind of impact they will have.

and most recently, several projects have been conducted in the Austrian context, dealing with strategy development for research, technology and innovation policy at national and regional level. 21 These projects stress in particular the need to understand Adaptive foresight as a continuous monitoring,

and 2005 36.19 This approach was developed in the context of an EU-funded project SNM-T. See for instance 37,25,

the alternative preferred in AF is to develop a set of multifaceted framework scenarios (also known as context or external scenarios.

p. 187.28 Available on www. ovalmap. com. 29 A dozen tokens of each colour to place freely among clusters is often a practical number. 30 See for instance the experience made in the context of the project FISTERA (Foresight

identification of collective pathways (multiple backcasting) A common type of backcasting work in a multiple framework scenarios context is to identify bifurcation points and early warning indicators.

as reflected in the notion of adaptive elements in strategies and path-dependence in the context of scenario development;

So far, thinking in terms of real options in the context of foresight is still in an early stage of development.

In the context of Woodwisdom-Net, it was employed by regarding research issues as tentative ideas for possible projects that might be promoted in the international program.

In this context, systematic methods like RPM Screening can lend structure to consultation processes so that inputs from one level of analysis (e g.

there has been a longer tradition of regulatory impact assessments in the context of technology assessment 6. A rather new

In the context of policy-making, the most important intentions of foresight exercises are to find out changes in consumer preferences

and are put in the context of possible evaluation and assessment technologies. Table 1 Evaluation matrix:

In the area of standardisation, it is applied already in various contexts. Data requirements/indicators: The simple quantitative use of science and technology indicators in order to detect future challenges for the regulatory framework is not sufficient.

and increasingly in the context of policymakking building on their capacity to facilitate an alignment of actors'expectations through interactions. 3. 3. 2. Examples

and impacts Impossibility to detect major technological breakthroughs and their regulatory requirements Semiquantiitativ In case of conflicting interests, missing-consensus about priorities Identification of experts Uncertainty increases with complexity of the context (technology, markets

the advantages (and disadvantages) of roadmapping depend on the context in which it is applied. There is a wealth of literature focusing on the functions, uses and tools of roadmaps in high-technology companies andmncs 3 20.

) In other contexts it may be useful to differentiate, such as with‘anticipatory tools'(foresight exercises, bibliometric analyses, scenario planning, etc);

when the technological, regulatory and business context of the (hopefully) growiin start-up/SME has matured, the company can switch towards roadmapping for incremental innovation.

Before delving into the context of lab-on-a-chip for cell analysis we explore what the literature can tell us with regards to insights into emerging path dynamics stemming from sociology of S&t, evolutionary economics and organization studies.

we delve into the innovation context by setting the scene for the multi-path mapping exercise.

notions of technical change were developed in the context of the firm. In his seminal paper, Dosi 34 argued that technical paradigms direct activities in technology development

but both cooperate in the context of alignment exercises. For example there have been numerous Strategic Support Actions (SSA) of the FP6 Thematic areas that supported roadmap building

Typically, logic model approaches start with specific programme goals and objectives and attempt to identify paths to potential goal attainment by treating foresight programmes as systems comprised of a number of basic elements, namely context, actors, processes

and influence their appearance within specific foresight contexts (seen as systems comprised of actors, objectives, processes,

then the possibility of building a common impact assessment framework for foresight exercises based on their contribution to a more participatory‘knowledge society'irrespective of their specific context

but others are independent of the context and specificities of the cases examined, then it will be possible to construct a common impact assessment framework.

Seen in the context of a transition economy and a political system under extreme pressure to embrace change during the EU pre-accession phase,

d) the degree to which government and regulatory contexts promote networking. These findings are mainly based on studies in industry and the private sector in general.

As regards governance, the degree to which government and regulatory contexts promote networking is another success factor.

and a series of interviews with foresight specialists to complete the development of the model describing the dynamics of foresight exercises in different contexts.

assessing rationale, process and impact, Technological forecasting and Social Change 73 (7)( 2006) 761 777.9 A. Havas, Context, focus and coherence of foresight programmes, Lessons from the Czech republic and Hungary, Paper

or should be protected'from their broader context, in itself would be a subject of an intense discussion:

regional or national a potential gain would be to obtain a better understanding of the context in

innovation policy development and others inclined toward the provocation of innovation an opportunity to learn some new approaches as well as to reflect further upon some familiar tools such as risk assessment being profiled re within the new context of FTA.

They argue that foresight allows addressing trade-offs related to context uncertainties, value conflicts and sustainability deficits in a structured way.

Koivisto et al. examine how traditions of risk assessment are being adapted to the new more agile and greater uncertainties context of FTA.

We consider a possible, radically decentralized context for the conduct of future design. A case study of new technology architecture in the information technology domain is presented.

The role of this new method in a context of distributed decision-making and design is presented. 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The role of this new method in a context of distributed decision-making and design is presented. A prospective analysis of new technology fundamentally hinges on the concept of novelty.

Likewise, in terms of knowledge production, researchers form multi-disciplinary teams devoted to specific problems and specific contexts 12.

Our previous example of four technologies will be expanded considerably to the analysis of forty-one technologies within an information technology design context.

Fig. 4. Expanding network of hyperlinks in Wikipedia. 1143 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 At least three other networks have been studied in the context

Rather, by confronting observations with the context of discussion provided by philosophy, a stronger basis for interpreting the results of the hierarchical random graph may be formulated.

Due to long life times of infrastructures, strategic decision making has to explicitly consider uncertainties in context conditions,

allows addressing trade-offs related to context uncertainties, value conflicts and sustainability deficits in a structured way.

i) the context conditions are less stable and predictable due to increasing changes on the demand side and changing regulations,

Over the past decades, strategic planning in these sectors was focused mostly on narrowing down context uncertainties, value considerations and system configurations to reduce complexity and ease implementation 1, 4. Given the increased range of uncertainties,

Yet, in particular Technology foresight has often been restricted to identifying future context conditions in order to scrutinize the robustness of specific strategies

however much less well developed in strategic planning contexts as it often misses the link between analyzing uncertainties to assessing options

especially in contexts that are otherwise rather averse with regard to innovation 8. Foresight methodologies should therefore not only inform the identification of future context conditions

but may also be applied to future system options and preference structures. Such a methodological framework is likely to depart in style and content from the currently dominant forms of strategic decision making in infrastructure sectors 5. While in conventional approaches

This enables the identification of the major trade-offs associated with context uncertainties, newly emerging technological solutions and potential future interest conflicts associated with the implementation of specific system configurations.

tending to blind out alternative solutions, context uncertainties and broad goals. We therefore consider strategic planning in sanitation as an appropriate test domain for the methodology.

Section 3 presents the procedural outlay of the Regional Infrastructure method and introduces concepts for addressing the trade-offs relative to context uncertainties, conflicts and sustainability deficits.

technologies and skills that determine a stable context in which highly complex system configurations can develop 12.

Firstly, uncertainty in context conditions has been increasing substantially due to changing regulations, rapid urbanization and shrinking rural regions as well as market liberalization 3. Secondly

Changes in context conditions outside the considered range may entail very costly adaptation measures (see e g. 17),

context conditions, options and value considerations. Many applications focused on exploring broad ranges of possible future context conditions.

Additionally, strategic options were assessed in relation to specific scenarios 21. Whereas foresight has often been run in participatory settings in the past,

1) Exploratory context scenarios analyze a set of possible future framework conditions relevant for organizations, regions or communities.

These explorative external scenarios 23 typically span a wide range of possible developments of context factors that are beyond the control of the relevant actors.

Context scenarios are especially important in the case of infrastructures as there is a high interdependence between the long term oriented infrastructure

and its regional context 30.2) Other applications of scenario planning are framed as decision support instruments for the assessment of strategic options:

In corporate contexts, innovation oriented foresight focuses on long term product development strategies or market prospects. Here, foresight is geared towards‘exploration'of longer term strategies in innovation management 31.

p. 6. Potential solutions have to be reflected critically against the broad background of context scenarios

and specific trade-offs must be identified 32,33. 3) The outcome of an assessment of options in the context of different scenarios still depends on the type

The variation of interests and in parallel potential conflicts increases with the consideration of political side effects of more radical solutions 36 as well as with different political and societal situations in context scenarios.

Given that conventional planning approaches are optimized for blinding out uncertainties in contexts, system alternatives and value considerations,

1) opening critical context developments,(2) broadening the range of analyzed system alternatives,(3) using sustainability criteria

In terms of methodology, the value driven assessment follows the multi-criteria analysis approach (e g. 52) which is expanded to include uncertainties of context conditions (see e g. 53.

deriving trade-off mappings related to context uncertainty, potential interest conflicts and sustainability deficits and utilizing the results in the formal decision making process (Fig. 1). 3. 1. Structuring exploration:

to analyze context conditions and system alternatives for an infrastructure system in the time horizon of 25 years which is congruent with the expected average lifetime of central infrastructure components.

At the end of the process, the results are transmitted to the decision makers who then decide about specific strategies. 3. 1. 2. Foresight generation Phase in the generation phase, the exploration of context uncertainties,

context factors like economic, demographic and settlement development, future political culture and environmental regulations. They select the most influencing

They construct the context scenarios for the year 2030+discursively by describing coherent and plausible scenarios that are regional specific 63,64.

Secondly, the core team systematically evaluates the impacts of these context conditions on the infrastructure system relative to an encompassing list of performance goals.

i) the dependency of option rankings relative to different context conditions,(ii) the level of conflict among stakeholder groups that a certain option would entail and (iii) sustainability deficits of preferred options.

Trade-offs related to context conditions and diverging value perspectives can now be represented in this diagram for each option.

if dependency on context conditions is considered which is represented graphically by connecting the performance scores of a specific option under different scenarios by a polygon (see Fig. 2). Size

and location of the polygon can directly be interpreted as a measure of context and interest dependency.

one can derive context and conflict sensitive social preference orders (see Section 4 and Fig. 4 for empirical illustrations).

Strategic choices based on the above listed arguments take into account uncertainties in context conditions and interest constellations.

For each option, strength and weaknesses of performance under widely varying context conditions can be specified.

new sub-variants may be formulated that (i) would be less vulnerable to critical context conditions,(ii) would help to compensate for potential sustainability deficits,

In the first workshop, the stakeholders elaborated four alternative scenarios describing context conditions in the year 2030+based on the set of influencing factors

when hygienic standards declined in a dire economic context. Cost minimization would receive a high priority

development of context conditions or changes in interests. One consequence was departed that decision makers from their initially strong position that only one big technical system was able to solve all future problems in the region.

Therefore, RIF provided a context in which uncertainties and trade-offs became a resource for decision makers to provide more robust solutions.

a more discursive and open consideration of uncertainties in context conditions, values and options is needed compared to the established planning practice.

We developed a specific methodological layout of a strategic planning process the Regional infrastructure foresight method that builds on a combination of foresight approaches that focus on exploratory context scenarios, option assessment and multiple perspectives.

This enabled the process of explicitly mapping key trade-offs among different strategic options with regard to potential conflicts of interest, surprises in the development of context conditions and potential sustainability deficits.

we could considerably improve the range of critical context conditions 7. As experienced in our empirical application case,

For instance, region specific context scenarios could be created commonly in a first step, while sector specific options are developed separately in a second step

The context, emphasis and time horizons of examination vary, however. For instance, risk assessment in the context of industrial process safety aims to predict the risk caused by a failure, deviation,

malfunction or error in an industrial system or operation leading to unwanted consequences. The time horizon considered typically is a couple of years maximum

The paper builds on VTT experience in a variety of prospective risk assessment contexts (information-based infrastructures

Analysis stage means studying how the context and main issues, trends and drivers influence one another, and synthesising knowledge.

The scope and context of the analysis, as well as the examination of the technology, its impacts and related policy,

but also economical analysis. This section describes the methodological developments of risk assessment in the context of industrial safety,

Development of safety and risk analysis in the industrial context stems from nuclear industry, civil and military aviation,

and manage risks in a complex context was rapidly showing its success. The number of industrial accidents

In the context of the Nordic hydropower production and distribution, for instance, the most threatening scenarios are selected for the risk estimation and evaluation process.

whereas more autonomous method management and broader participation were used in the INNORISK context. Fig. 4. Case projects positioned in view of the dimensions of outcomes (informative vs. instrumental), future perspectives (consensual vs. diverse) and in the coordinate system of stakeholder engagement (extensive vs. exclusive) and management

Risk assessment (focus on the context of industrial safety) Future-oriented technology analysis Aim To identify and assess risks now and in the future.

10 O.,Saritas, Systems thinking for Foresight, Ph d. Thesis, PREST, Manchester Business school, University of Manchester, 2006.11 E. Braun, Technology in context.

The future development of the economy and innovation system will be derived in part from the path dependent historical context

The various economic development phases form a context incorporating the significant socioeconomic changes and dynamics into the analysis. The framework enables the structural comparisons of entire economies, their individual industrial sectors, related R&d and innovation intensities,

To work out the similarities in different application may be a first step to adapt the instruments and tools in other disciplines so that in the future even in technical and social science contexts,

which already started in the current context of the High-tech Strategy 2 (www. bmbf. de).

It has been written in the context of the BLOSSOM project of the European Environment Agency. 3 The project aims at building a platform for discussion

too 6. Our analysis underlines the need to treat political context factors and the institutional embedding of scenario planning with greater care than it has been done so far.

The distinction between scenarios as products and scenarios as processes is relevant in this context. Process is as important as the product 7. The remainder of this article is organised as follows:

Depending on the context and purpose of the exercise engaging a handful of people can add more value to the process than engaging several dozens,

as different formats might be necessary to conform to diverging information needs and context conditions. The different functions of scenario planning can be distinguished into indirect and direct forms of scenario-based decision support (17,

In this context another study suggests that standard scenario approaches tend to systematically exclude surprising or paradoxical developments as inconsistent or logical impossible.

Context is crucial. Many practitioners consider scenario building to be a craft or art of challenging mind-sets in strategic conversations about long-term futures.

the importance of the context and process of scenario creation is emphasized. But there is little evidence to connect these insights to resulting performance of the participating organisations.

and develop a deeper understanding of how the context and process of scenario creation affects their impacts.

Weinberg 4 expressed his concerns in this context in a discussion of trans science which he described as...

°‘Placing Foresight programmes in context and allowing participation in formulation ofline their content'°Choosing the methods to be used to enable the expression of public opinion with all its vagaries of expression concerning

'In this context, inclusivity needs to create an appreciation of those wider matters that may influence a nation or a region;

The study context of application tends to affect citizens that have not been involved in the scientific justification of its propositions a key point already made with respect to Inclusive foresight.

The latter is an essential feature as there is no single‘right'way to decide interventions in situations as their context

Identify boundaries for the heuristic as a judgmental process Assemble alternative systems contexts for appreciating dynamically a situation and its content,

The meaning of a metaphor in the present context is a figure of speech in which a word or phrase literally denoting one kind of object

to the notion of amelioration in the context of a cascade of situations and not in the expectation of guarantees of improvement as both amelioration and improvement are relative terms. 4. 1. 4. Sources of legitimization 10.

The context of legitimization of the visions of‘amelioration'of a situation is a cognitive process

Foresight needs to follow how the critical mass evolves as this is a critical part of its context that follows from the kind of processes that enable public participation some

Within this context, a key issue for many potential stakeholders, and most of those that were the subject of this FTA exercise was

and context-rich scenarios encompasses a trade-off between recognizing the complexity of actual dynamics of innovation

Robinson and Propp 6 used the innovation chain concept in the context of path dynamics. 7 Here I make a distinction.

& Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 3. 2. The scope of the workshop and the nano context at the time From the situation outlined in Section 3. 1,

and place into context possible playings out, based on expectations and path dependencies that are crystallising out of the present (endogenous futures).

but they also have a performative function in that they can lead to 2nd order learning on how to build more context-fitting scenarios.

Nanodiablog provides a space for other actors to shape the context from instrumental to constructive criticism (whistle blowers have a space to proclaim

small companies begin to commercialise this technology Broader context of comparable innovation journeys: these other fields are added to compare to the medical device innovation journeys later in the scenario..

The process provides a means for the creation of rich, context aware and plausible scenarios, which are accepted as legitimate and controlled speculations by participants of Constructive TA workshops.

and strategies as well as providing key elements and aspects in context. The context is important as it shows the co-evolutionary nature of emergence.

Making some of the emerging pathways explicit through exploration of endogenous futures and their playings out in scenarios,

The context of science is strategic research and emerging technologies, and it is economical and competitive (and not to better understand nature and humankind).

In many contexts political interests are as legitimate as‘neutral'expectations about future developments. In this perspective the premises for foresight might be that:

The context is not related to any particular understanding of science or technological development but to powers and political interests in the affected areas of science and technology;

The context for science is that research and technological development are unpredictable; in this sense it is almost a Mode 1 understanding of science and technology;

and its context Two case studies were analysed here, namely the strategy processes of the Danish technical research council and the Danish energy research programme.

Content and context are interrelated closely. This case study focuses on the round of strategy development in the period after 2001.

As the two strategy cases were analysed in the context of foresight parameters for comparing the case studies draw partly from contemporary discussions of foresight typology.

Scenario learning and potential sustainable development processes in spatial contexts: towards risk society or ecological modernization of scenarios.

The identification of such‘priority'topic areas is rarely straightforward in any context, and Luxembourg has been no exception.

we discuss some of the generic dilemmas that characterise prioritisation processes before examining how these played out in the Luxembourg context. 3. Generic priority-setting dilemmas Priority setting is, more often than not,

assessment of domains Future trends Luxembourg context Research priorities candidates Conclusion & recommendations Phase 2: Setting Context/Identifying Priorities Data collection Bibliometrics Interviews International research trends Evaluation of FNR programmes Mapping of Lux.

Research landscape‘Long list'of possible research domains Aims: Method: Input: Results: Phase1: Creating a Baseline Figure 2. Phases and steps of FNR Foresight.

In the context of the FNR Foresight, it is clear that more time should have been devoted to setting its objectives and agenda.

as well as a perspective on future challennge and key areas for action that had been developed in the context of a participatory process.

2) Policy strategic counselling by merging the insights generated in the context of policy informiin foresight activities with perspectives on the strategic positioning

These conditions, together with the pronounced consensus-orientation in policy making, provide the governance context in which the foresight

and his engagement must be seen as decisive for realising a participatoor process in a context that had been characterised until then by strong departmentalisation of policy making.

This second argument must be seen in the context of a then recent initiative to strengthen cooperation with the twin city of Bratislava,

In this context, Vienna's network-based location of research and innovation will be strengthened further. 4. 4. Implementation the schedule for 2008 and beyond Based on the objectives,

and it is the firm intention to maintain the momentum of the participatory process by consolidating some of the communication channels that had been established in the context of the strategy process. 5. Impacts of the process

In terms of its informing function, it certainly contributed to giving research and innovation more prominence and visibility in the context of urban policy.

In particular in the context of panel meetings and inter-panel meeting, it was necessary to explain

This applies, for instance, to initiatives to be taken in the context of the wider CENTROPE area

or whether it will turn into a more regular process of strategy development and update, based on a monitoring of actions and context.

'and the scenarios that had been developed in that context. The results of the programme were simply just about to become available

and Weber (2006) and in particular the work on self-evaluation tools for foresight in the context of the Forsociety ERA NET (Forsociety 2007).

Visioning in the context of foresight How should visioning be understood in the context of foresight practises?

for example in the context of regional, national and transnational development programmes. Visioning as an activity,

'and how the resulting visions should be used in the planning context. As pointed out by Shipley et al.

There is apparently a need for further investigation into the concrete practises of visioning, especially in the context of local long-term planning,

They have studied foresight in the context of organisational identittie and the ways individuals fulfil identities

In the context of future orientation, reflexivity has evolved from an understanndin of human practice as described by Garfinkel (1967) via a social theory of modernity introduced by among others Giddens (1991) and Beck, Bonss,

but signals a recognition that the consideraatio of counterfactual possibilities is intrinsic to reflexivity in the context of risk assessment and evaluation'.

At the same time, the municipal project leadership clarified early on how their contributions would be handled in the context of municipal planning.

As with other future methods, the perspective on visioning is dependeen on the context in

‘in a wide range of contexts, present day evidences, proofs, facts or truths are giving way to future-oriented abstractions premised on desire,

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