the authors of the papers suggest a number of developments such as a more systematic integration of new technology (especially ICT) to allow interaction
stress the pressure that new technology developments are posing to the field of TA. Therefore, in order to continue to be effective,
Decision-making in relation to innovation and new technology be it from a company's or from a public policy perspective, is confronted with the need to navigate increasingly complex decision landscapes.
for instance in terms of‘windows of opportunity'for introducing a new technology or starting a policy initiative. By developing consistent pathways, the backcasting exercise represents a second level of testing the credibility of a scenario.
-Project FANTASIE, Stockholm, FOA, 1999.32 H. Van Zuylen, K. M. Weber, J. Shires, A. Eriksson, Options to support the introduction of new technologies and their implications on transport policy
Policy 29 (4 5)( 2000) 657 678.6 J. P. Salmenkaita, A. Salo, Rationales for government intervention in the commercialization of new technologies, Technol.
but also national research agencies and businesses, in their efforts to cope with the increasing complexity of new technologies and decision environments, in an increased techno-economic competition worldwide 9. Since the 1990s,
However, there is plenty of anecdotal evidence that the regulatory framework has been adapted to the emergence of new technologies,
However, the identification of those regulation-relevant new technologies or new specifications within mature technologies is only just beginning
In addition, both regulation and self regulation loose significantly in importance the more in the future a new technology might be realised.
then any of the innovation chains identified can create the matrix of entanglements constitutive of the new technology-application paradigm:
Policy 14 (1985) 3 22.2 A. Rip, Introduction of New technology: Making Use of Recent insights from Sociology and Economics of Technology, Technol.
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 2004, pp. 13 14.28 T. Fleischer, M. Decker,
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 2004, pp. 13 14.29 S. Kuhlmann, et al.
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.10 A. Havas, Terminology and Methodology for Benchmarking Foresight programmes,
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.16 Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology Futures analysis:
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.17 M. Ladikas, M. Decker, Assessing the Impact of future-Oriented Technology assessment, Paper 1 in proceedings EU
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.18 Technopolis, et al. Using Logic models, The results of a study exploring how logic models can be used to develop a methodological framework for the high-quality assessment of IST-RTD effects at the Strategic Objective level, Commission Contract No 29000,2006. 19 W. W. Powell, in:
A case study of new technology architecture in the information technology domain is presented. An analytical method involving mining weighted graphs from technology archives is presented.
A case study of new technology architecture in the information technology domain is presented. An analytical method involving mining weighted graphs from technology archives is presented.
A prospective analysis of new technology fundamentally hinges on the concept of novelty. It is the newest and most novel of technologies which presents the greatest challenges for technological forecasting.
Fundamental uncertainty surrounds the exploitation and development of new technologies. Much has been made about the convergence of new technologies, particularly in the information,
biotechnology and material sectors 1. The forces impelling convergence at the time are seen as radical, revolutionary,
processes of organizational and sectoral learning then assist in securing a niche for the new technology.
Trend extrapolation approaches, for instance, are based on tracking the emergence of new technologies only once a dominant design is secured 4. This solution of tracking dominant designs neglects some of the fundamental uncertainty associated with technological evolution.
Previous work has provided technology analysts with a set of techniques for both integrating and decomposing new technologies.
Relevant research has approached the problem of forecasting radical technological change with methods for supporting analysis for both decomposition and integration of new technologies.
In addition, the paper outlines several important caveat about the use of these models in forecasting new technology:
creating software solutions to help innovative organizations develop new technologies within an open innovation environment. Knowledge is structured hierarchically.
The technology designer has a similar challenge in exploring new, heretofore unforeseen, combinations of new technologies.
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 4. Results In this results section we apply the methodology described in the previous section to a specific system of new technologies.
Such subjectivity may be hard to remove given the epistemic character of uncertainty in new technology. It is important also to acknowledge that this is only a first demonstration of concept on a relatively limited sample.
governance of converging new technologies integrated from the nanoscale, Paper Presented at the Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology, Portland, 2007.2 A. De Haan, K. Mulder, Sustainable air transport:
regions, sectors and companies mainly by focusing on perspectives associated with new technology development. Furthermore, its standard case of application has been to direct
the main emphasis being balanced in evaluation of the short-and long-term impacts of new technologies. All these future-oriented approaches try to illustrate
in order to develop more proactive and systemic risk assessment that covers even new types of emerging risks (incl. risks related to new technologies and their introduction to the market).
and new technologies provide some further insights that contribute to the paper. The paper examines the prerequisites of and the ways in
when analysing new technologies and the impacts of their market introduction. In this way TA can also play a more significant role in pushing the development in a useful or wanted direction. 2. 2 Risk assessment methodologies in industrial safety As noted in the previous Section 2. 1,
and methods for companies in order to support the decision making related to introducing existing technologies into new markets, development of new technologies for existing markets,
or creation of new technologies in new markets. INNORISK project aims at applying Back-pocket roadmap 30 (also called Agile Roadmap), SWOT analysis 31,32 and IBM's Signpost methodology tools together with Potential Problem/Opportunity (Risk analysis
These frontiers include the exploration and/or the reexamination of (a) Potential for integrating new technology with futures research methods,
New technologies; Decision making; Uncertainty; Nonlinear systems; Futures methodology issues 1. Introduction There are many methods and approaches to the study of the future.
if addressed, may improve the quality of the enterprise 1. 2. Integrating new technology with futures research methods New technologies carry great potential for improving
Furthermore, new technologies such as wireless Internet, knowledge visualization software, and improved computer translation will allow more international foresight activities to build collective intelligence through participatory feedback systems far more complex than the current futures research methods.
The examples mentioned above represent only a small part of the immense potential of new technology in futures research.
technological innovations that are linked directly to human beings (inside and outside of the body) need new technologies on the one hand,
In the 1950s outsiders to whatever policy making processes there were began to reject the notion of infinite plasticity toward the adoption of new technology.
what are and what are not desirable future situations°Prioritising the choices that have to be made among the outcomes of Foresight Avoid the assumption that people have infinite plasticity toward new technology Increase trust between policy makers, business and the general public,
when products and services based on new technologies are rejected when they are launched or soon afterwards Create policy processes amenable to current and future issues within the characteristics of trans science (Weinberg ibid.)
Paradigms, trajectories and expectations offer partial understanding of how new technologies emerge, but have not answered these questions,
of new technology: making use of recent insights from sociology and economics of technology, Technol. Anal. Strateg.
Getting New technologies Together: Studies in Making Sociotechnical Order, Walter de Gruyter, Berlin New york, 1998.22 M. Callon, Techno-economic networks and irreversibility, in:
the concepts of national innovation systems (NIS) and technology innovation systeem (TIS) are important in understanding how new technologies emerge
supporting existing areas, the opposite of priority setting The strategy of new technologies: technology and not science-discipline-oriented The strategy of positions of strength:
New technology foresight, forecasting and assessment methods, 13 14 may, Seville, Spain. EU DG Research. 2005. Final Report.
In The approach to and the potential for new technology foresight, The Proceedings of an International Conference on Technology foresight, Tokyo, Japan. http://www. nistep. go. jp/achiev/ftx/eng/mat077e/html/mat077oe
New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods, 13 14 may, Sevilla, Spain. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014
United nations University, Institute for New technologies. Smits, R. 2002. The new role of strategic intelligence. In Strategic policy intelligence:
'CFS does not regard new technologies as merely‘tangible, reified items out there in the real world,
Paper presennte at the proceedings of international conference on Technology foresight the approach to and potential for new technology foresight.
Exploiting New technologies for Competitive advantage, Wiley, New york, 2005.2 T. Teichert, M.-A. Mittermayer, Text mining for technology monitoring, IEEE IEMC 2002 (2002) 596 601.3 R
Rationales for government intervention in the commercialization of new technologies. Technology analysis and Strategic management 14, no. 2: 183 200.
An awareness of such new capabilities serves as a jumping-off point for generating ideas for new technology-based products and services.
and a disconnection between the development and application of new technologies and the societal and business issues which are wanted by the public and their political representatives.
But qualitative speculation about how and how far new technologies may be used will also do well to be grounded in terms of available understanding (i e. models) of product cycles and diffusion curves.
-Avoid the assumption that people have infinite plasticity towards new technology. -Increase trust between policy makers, business and the general public,
when products and services based on new technologies are rejected when they are launched or soon afterwards. -Create policy processes amenable to current
Factors such as public awareness of industrial and technological risk, growing instances of social resistance to new technologies,
Thus issues underlying social reaction to new technologies and the undisclosed ways in which industries take decisions must be resolved.
'According to at least one analyst 14, technological discontinuity is represented in a new technology or in the repackaging of a set of existing technologies that result in quickly obsoleting a product or service.
or find ways to use the new technology. Another more recent example is that of using the Internet and the tcp ip protocol to transport voice calls.
competences Ensuring equity in the development of new technologies Self-proficiency and hoarding alters social patterns Decline of motivation in the youth cohort of industrialised and aging societies Ethics in capitalism under scrutiny Growing tribalism around national,
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, 2004, European communities Technical Report EUR 21473 EN. 5 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis:
restraining urban sprawl, self-sufficiency, and new technologies). Reflecting a broader discussion on the benefit and limits of combining different methods,
Preemptive nature conservation Nature as a source of admiration and recreation Nature as a partner Cleaning up the mess made as much as possible Relation towards technology New technology as a lever
finding new intelligent ways to use old technologies New technology as a lever and enabler, mimicking nature,
restraining urban sprawl, self-sufficiency, and new technologies. However, the implications of the scenarios include somewhat radical elements.
Typically, when new technologies emerge, they are accompanied by promises of all sorts. Earlier examples are biotechnology, genomics and microelectronics,
for example, that the new technology will definitely change our lives. It is a so-called dgeneric technologyt 12
Third, the ETC group is working to develop an International Convention for the Evaluation of New technologies (ICENT),
This should create a new mechanism that will make it possible for the international community to monitor the development of new technologies whose introduction could affect (positively and/or negatively) human health
merely to inform parliaments about possible negative effects of new technologies. In the early 1970s15 this more and more changed to a means for better policy analysis.
in order to maximise the societal embedding of the new technology. Our basic claim is that in order to appreciate and to influence developments in new emerging technologies,
These views are directly related to the social perspectives on the new technology. As the set of involved actors is developed heterogeneous,
because it feels confident that new technologies will solve most environmental threats. In this context, there is a need for strict policies
Figure 9 Spatial implications of Scenario B (2025) PAGE 330 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 B Pursue a massive incorporation of new technologies into public administration to improve
the police have turned to new technologies to improve their efficiency, using ICT to optimize their increasingly scarce and limited resources,
Exploiting New technologies for Competitive advantage, Wiley, Hoboken, NJ. Rader, M. 2001),‘Monitoring of technology assessment activities'',report by the European Science and Technology observatory Network, Seville.
Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 other hand, decision support and policy making require information on the potential consequences of the introduction of new technologies before they are implemented widely,
which the emergence of new technologies is accompanied by mutual co-operation between technology development and impact analysis, between sustainability research and nanosciences,
How can we predict the number of cattle or the impact of a new technology, when we only retrospecttivel know what we are talking about?
New technologies need protection to survive (in a company or a governmental programme), as they evolve by trial and error;
An example here is that public participation in new technologies often does not lead to new and heterodox insights;
Social and institutional factors shaping the development of new technologies. Newyork: St martin's Press. Douthwaite, B.,J. D. H. Keatinge,
Antagonistic patterns and new technologies. In Getting new technologies together, ed. C. Disco and B. J. R. Van der meulen, 285 306.
Berlin: Walter de Gruyter. Roelofsen, A j. E w. Broerse, T. de Cock Buning, and J. F. G. Bunders. 2008.
The hopes and fears that shape new technologies. Philadelphia, PA: Temple University Press. Sung, J. J,
which were affected strongly by new technologies and customer needs. Foresight in mature industries Environmental uncertainty and foresight approach The chemical and automotive industries throughout the last decade were typically mature and global industries where trajectories of technologies
in the display and large-screen TV segment, in the last decade, there have been some major market launches of such new technologies as liquid crystal display, plasma display panel, surface-conduction electron-emitter display, organic
foresight must help decision makers realize the implications of new technologies and customer needs for the value chain,
Exploiting new technologies for competitiveadvantage. New york: Wiley. Porter, A l.,Y. Guo, L. Huang, and D. K. R Robinson. 2010.
and innovation system to assess the implications of new technologies and wider socioeconomic changes (Martin and Johnston, 1999;
Cunningham and van der Lei 28 use such an approach for models providing support to decision-making on the selection of new technologies and discuss the issue of providing equilibrium between different groups of experts and stakeholders.
new technologies such as web 2. 0 can be used by FTA to streamline operations by increasing interactive participation of stakeholders, speeding-up the provision of information and feedbacks and integrating data of different sorts (pictures
new technology foresight, forecasting & assessment methods, in: JRC Technical Report, EUR 21473 EN, European commission, 2004, Available at:
Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer verlag, Berlin and Heidelberg, 2008.28 S w. Cunningham, T. E. van der Lei, Decision-making for new technology:
According to Arthur's definition, the characteristic of the emerging stage is a new technology with low competitive impact and low integration in products or processes.
and might be replaced by a new technology. According to this definition, Ernst 10 developed a map to illustrate TLC (Fig. 1). The dominant approach to analysing TLC with an S-curve is to observe technological performance,
or delayed impacts on society of introducing new technologies i e.,, technology assessment but that is beyond the scope of this study.
A similar attitude is advocated also by Collingridge 33 with respect to the development of new technologies. Given ignorance about the possible side effects of technologies under development, he argues that one should strive for correctability of decisions, extensive monitoring of effects, and flexibility.
Transition of the energy systemtoward sustainability depends on the developments related to new technologies. Such developments are characterized typically by non-linearity and uncertainty regarding technological characteristics and market adoption 48
The figure shows the behavior over time for the outcome indicator‘fraction of new technologies of total energy generation'as well as the Gaussian Kernel Density Estimates (KDES) 56 of the end states.
These results show that the fraction of new technologies seems to be concentrated around 60%of total generation capacity by the simulated year 2100,
the fraction of new technologies remains below 60%for about half of the runs. If the goal is an energy transition toward sustainability,
To this end, the end states for the total fraction of new technologies are classified as 1
for as long as the fraction of new technologies remains below a particular target fraction, say 0. 8,
Fig. 4 displays the envelopes spanning the upper and lower limits of the total Fig. 3. Total fraction of new technologies for the‘no policy'ensemble. 413 C. Hamarat et al./
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 fraction of new technologies for the no policy ensemble (in blue) and the basic policy ensemble (in green) as well as the KDES of the end states of all
The upward shift of the sustainable fraction in Fig. 4 means that the need for new capacity resulting from the additional decommissioning of Technology 1 is to a large extent filled by new technologies.
Hence, the basic policy stimulates the transition from Technology 1 to new technologies, at least to some extent.
Many runs still end below the 60%new technologies threshold. For this reason, we applied PRIM once more with the same classification rule in order to identify troublesome regions for the basic policy.
since all PRIM boxes indicated decreasing the negative effect of the lifetime of Technology 1 would help to increase the fraction of new technologies.
while it is low for the new technologies, then transition toward new technologies is limited. Additionally, the region shows that higher performance for expected cost per MWE of the dominant technology also limits the transition.
This outcome is not undesirable: it means that the old dominant technology outperforms the other technologies in terms of expected investment costs and CO2 avoidance, which,
even though the transition to new technologies is limited. The second region is driven mainly by uncertainties related to Technology 2. A shorter lifetime, lower performance of CO2 avoidance,
Fig. 4. Comparison of no policy and basic policy for total fraction of new technologies. 414 C. Hamarat
Although there is not a clear improvement in terms of total fraction of new technologies, the installed capacities of Technologies 3 and 4 increase.
one could conclude that certain combinations of these parameters hinder the breakthrough of new technologies. Since the way in which economic development is represented in this model creates cyclic behavior,
a possible corrective action could be to partly decouple the adoption of new technologies from the economic cyclewith the help of subsidies and additional commissioning of newtechnologies.
we use the investment cost of new technologies as a signpost. A possible defensive action would be to subsidize one
a 20%cost reduction of the new technologies is triggered over a period of 10 years. To further address this vulnerability, we also add a hedging action to the basic policy in the form of additional commissioning of Technologies 3 and 4 in their early years.
and to promote the transition toward new technologies in their early years. The economic action is successful in promoting sustainable technologies
The adoption of the new technologies in later years is also higher than under the basic policy,
Fig. 5 shows a comparison in terms of the total fraction of new technologies of the‘no policy'ensemble, the‘basic policy'ensemble,
without forcing a transition to new technologies upon situations that do not require a transition to take place (e g. in case of a cheap and environmentally friendly dominant technology) or for
Fig. 5. Comparison of no policy, basic policy and adaptive policy for total fraction of new technologies. 415 C. Hamarat et al./
Policy 14 (1985) 3 22.49 A. Rip, Introduction of new technology; making use of recent insights from sociology and economics of technology, Technol.
Institutional change driven by liberalization, changing economic competitiveness of the dominant fuels, new technologies, and changing end-user preferences regarding electricity supply are some examples of these developments.
Institutional change driven by liberalization, changing economic competitiveness of the dominant fuels, new technologies, and changing end-user preferences regarding electricity supply are some examples of these developments.
application-driven research will produce new scientific discoveries and economic optimization leading to new technologies and industries.
they address R&d (Advance a world-class nanotechnology research and development program), innovation (Foster the transfer of new technologies into products for commercial and public benefit),
Washington. 46 M. C. Roco, Environmentally responsible development of nanotechnology, How the U s. Government is Dealing with the Immediate and Long-term issues of this New technology, Environmental science & Technology, 2005.
differences in new technology management, in: W. E. Souder, J. D. Sherman (Eds. Managing New technology Development, Mcgraw-hill, USA, 1994, pp. 287 314.19 G. Hofstede, Cultural dimensions in management and planning, Asia Pacific Journal of Management 1984
(January)( 1984) 81 99.20 G. Hofstede, Culture's Consequences: International Differences in Work-related Values, Sage, Beverly hills, CA, 1980.21 M. Minkov, G. Hofstede, The evolution of Hofstede's doctrine, Cross Cultural Management:
the impacts of new technologies (e g. the impacts of the internet on teaching; demographic change; increased competition and the need to do well in national and global rankings;
This persona does threatened not feel by new technology at all, and is interested Fig. 1. Examples the cultural probe tools (Day 4 and Day 6). K. De Moor et al./
The positive digital Internet TV viewer (PP3) is very much into new technologies and has a real innovator profile.
innovation processes start with a new technology or with market needs. Innovation processes become less linear and feedback and feed-forward linkages are established. 4. Innovation in systems or networks:
, scenario analysis, multi-issue actor analysis, roadmapping Project 2. 3 Thematic innovation radar Identifies new technologies, trends and topics in a predefined thematic field Project 2. 4 Working group Provide a setting to explore future topics
and research institutes Program 3. 7 Innovation radar Identifies new technologies, trends and developments in selected fields, establishes a common outlook on the future of ICT
Exploiting New technologies for Competitive advantage. New york: Wiley. Punie, Y, I Maghiros and S Delaitre 2006. Dark scenarios as a constructive tool for future-oriented technology analysis:
and Public policy February 2010 9 horizon scans can be narrower in scope (only looking for new technologies),
ICT evolution has become so fast and pervasive that it is increasingly difficult to predict the emergence of new technologies or the evolution of existing ones,
When New technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail. Boston, MA: Harvard Business school Press. Eriksson, E A and K M Weber 2008:
New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assesssmen Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain. Ladikas, Miltos and Michael Decker 2004.
New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain. Rollwagen, Ingo, Jan Hofmann and Stefan Schneider 2006.
The world health sector continues to seek new technologies and approaches which are needed to combat these threats,
epidemioloog and anthropology is needed to understand how new technologies can be used most effectively from the viewpoints of the needs,
However, the applicatiio of these new technologies in developing economies needs to be undertaken with great care, recognizing that there are major infrastructural, cultuura and social differences.
Report by High-level Expert Group on‘Foresighting the New technology Wave'.'Brussels: European Commison. Phaal, R c J P Farrukh and D R Probert 2004.
which is dedicated to the adoption and diffusion of new technologies in society. Technollog adoption is assumed to follow a predictable path
In the theory of diffusionism, the first group of people who adopt the new technology (innovators
In the SCOT perspective, it is assumed that negotiatiio between certain social groups influences the construction and emergence of new technologies (Bijker and Law, 1992;
which influence the shaping, forms and uses of (new technologies. This and other approaches try to focus on technological developmeen from a mutual shaping or interactionism point of view (Lievrouw, 2006.
the construction of‘the social'in designing new technologies. In Everyday Innovatoors Researching the Role of Users in Shaping I's, L Haddon, E Mante, B Sapio, K-H Kommonen, L Fortunati and A Kant (eds.
Economics of Innovation and New technology, 9 (2), 111 148. Caliendo, M and R Huber 2005.
Entrepreneurial experimentation reduces uncertainty through a continnuou probing into new technologies and applications that allows many forms of social learning to take place..
when products and services based on new technologies are rejected Creating new capabilities Improve decisions by meeting societal expectations
and avoiding the assumption that people have infinite plasticity towards new technology Enhance strategic capabilities of organisations by helping to develop a language
or support for the adoption of new technologies. The third way is to anticipate how and when the demand could be articulated towards the emergence of a new market.
adopting new technologies is very slow due to high switching costs. In other cases, the market does not develop
and when the‘push'created by new technologies and the‘pull'driven by market demand are likely to match,
and has also been slow to adopt new technologies. The fragmented structure of the industry, its value chains and business models create barriers to the adoption of new innovations.
which new technologies are developed. A further policy proposal would be to catalyse government procurement of green buildings,
How the structure of technological interdependennc affects firm performance in new technology generations',Strategic management Journal, 31: 306 33.
reducing the potential infection in hospitals, doctor's offices and care of the aged by new technologies for highly efficient on-site sterilisation.
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