and on how the utility of outcomes can impact the different forms of FTA (i e. technology foresight, technology assessment, technology forecasting, technology and product roadmapping).
The two following articles, focusing on Technology assessment (TA) and, using as case study nanotechnology, stress the pressure that new technology developments are posing to the field of TA.
The paper shows that concepts applied to biological evolution are applicable, through useful metaphors, to economics and technology assessment.
one can observe similar developments in technology assessment where the growing prominence of social, economic, environmental and ethical concerns related to scientific and technological developments has led to a strengthening of participatory and constructive approaches 8, 9. Here,
Bridges Between Science, Society and Policy Technology assessment Methods and Impacts, Springer, Berlin, 2004.9 S. Joss, S. Belluci (Eds.
Participatory Technology assessment, European Perspectives, CSD, London, 2002.480 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482
there has been a longer tradition of regulatory impact assessments in the context of technology assessment 6. A rather new
matching policy instruments and methodologies Innovation surveys Econometric models Control group approaches Cost benefit analysis Expert panels/peer review Field/case studies Network analysis Foresight/Technology assessment
The Technology assessment Programme is part of the Science to Industry work package and the Ethical and Societal Aspect package,
a project was set up under the framework of the Frontiers Technology assessment Programme to: 1. explore and develop tools to map possible futures for the field of cell-on-a-chip with a focus on single cell analysis
www. technology assessment. eu. 530 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 but then proceeded to outsource the further development of product
Acknowledgements This work was funded through the Technology assessment Program of the Dutch Nanotechnology Consortium Nanoned led by Arie Rip (University of Twente)
This work was done also under the framework of the Frontiers Technology assessment Program. References 1 W. J. Abernathy, K. B. Clark, Innovation:
It should also be noted that the literature on technology assessment programmes is also relevant to the case of foresight programmes.
and suggested the inclusion of some elements of‘technology assessment'.'Concerning networking-related effects, the evaluation stressed that aftercare was needed
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.17 M. Ladikas, M. Decker, Assessing the Impact of future-Oriented Technology assessment, Paper 1 in proceedings EU
FTA provides a common umbrella for the foresight, forecasting and technology assessment communities. These closely related communities play an important role in guiding policy
She was the leader of the VTT Technology foresight and Technology assessment in 1999 2008 being also the Deputy Technology manager of the knowledge center since 2007.
Foresight methodology Technology assessment Technology analysis Risk assessment Risk analysis Roadmapping 1. Introduction The practices in foresight, technology assessment and industrial risk assessment processes are in many ways parallel.
Technology assessment (TA) has ingredients of both of these approaches the main emphasis being balanced in evaluation of the short-and long-term impacts of new technologies.
and its multidisciplinary technology foresight team, consisting of researchers with experience on foresight, technology assessment and risk assessment studies,
On the other hand, the development of foresight and technology assessment methodologies is expected to benefit from the experiences of the industrial risk assessment tradition:
The authors'involvement in technology assessments studies commissioned by the Parliament of Finland, development of proactive risk assessment methodologies for different corporate risk management purposes (identiffyin the vulnerability of corporate and process actions, managing the risks in occupational, industrial and environmental safety, managing business risks, etc.),
technology forecasting and technology assessment 1. As noted in Könnölä et al. 2, the gradual paradigm shift in the innovation research
discursive technology assessment, consensus conferences, brainstorming, expert workshops, Delphi questionnaires and expert Fig. 1. Popper's diamond 9. 1165 R. Koivisto et al./
A paradigm shift and interesting methodological developments are seen for Technology assessment too: TA originally emerged to balance power between the legislative and executive branches of government,
Consequently, concepts such as participatory technology assessment, construuctiv technology assessment, discursive TA, and consensus conferences have emerged, and both technology-driven
In some way the technology assessment is close to risk assessment methods, but the scope might still be vaguer than in risk assessment processes in industrial applications.
discursive technology assessment, consensus conferences, brainstorming, expert workshops and interviews Development and future expectations of the approach New approaches like inherent safety and resilience engineering address the complex nature of industrial processes.
Foresight for Europe, Final Report of the High level Expert Group for the European commission, April 24, 2002, European commission, Brussels, 2002.6 A. Eerola, E. Väyrynen, Developing technology forecasting and technology assessment
Technology assessment for managers, Routledge, London, 1998.12 R. Fairman, C. D. Mead, P. W. Williams, Environmental risk assessment approaches, experience and information sources, European Environment
In 2007 she entered VTT's Technology foresight and technology assessment team. Dr. Annele Eerola is Senior Research scientist and Deputy Technology manager of the knowledge centre‘Organisations, Networks and Innovation systems'at VTT.
and Team Leader of Technology foresight and Technology assessment team at VTT. His research is focused on technology foresight, technological transformation of societies, innovation systems and economic geography.
and Technology assessment team at VTT. His main focuses of interests are commercializing environmental technologies and sustainable development.
and Team Leader of Technology foresight and Technology assessment team at VTT. His research is focused on technology foresight
Formal rejection of the notion of infinite plasticity came in the late 1960s and early 1970s with the growth of technology assessment (TA) and the creation of the Office of Technology assessment (OTA) in the USA,
The Technology assessment Programme was part of the Science to Industry work package and the Ethical and Societal Aspect package,
Thus, there was an occasion to launch a technology assessment exercise, with the aim of bringing together actual and potential players involved in nanotechnology governance to share perspectives,
Garud and Ahlstrom 12 describe two perspectives of such technology assessment, those of technology developers and promoters they term insiders (that focus on innovation through enactment cycles)
and a number of technology assessment scholars. The elements and actors were recognised by the participants with praise about the plausibility of such scenarios.
and discussed them in light of, for example, technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment (Martino 1983; Millet and Honton 1991.
and lists of approaches and methood for foresight have been suggested by different authors in review articles on foresight and future-oriented technology assessment methods (Technology Futures analysis Methodsworking Group 2004).
Rather, foresight is a field of practice with origins in several other more or less established academic disciplines such as evolutionary economy, strategy, technology assessment or social studies of science, futures studies.
Technology assessment Again, QTIP can help scope the extent of R&d activities. Exploiting contextual information resources that cover policy, standards, public concerns, possible health and environmental hazards,
Developments in parliamentary technology assessment in Finland. Science and Public policy 28, no. 6: 453 64. Salo, A,
but the need to recognise the traditions of technology assessment, forecasting and other dimensions of futures studies remains important
, technology assessment, transition management, evidence-based policy and academic disciplines such as Innovation studies and Science and Technology studies 2. A number of classifications have been developed distinguishing types of Foresight with respect to approach, context and purpose 3
forecasting and technology assessment approaches foresight is perhaps the most comprehensive one suitable for providing policy support to address major societal challenges.
FTA's subfields include technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment, and of course futures research with its emphasis on explicating long-term alternative development prospects.
Policymakers thus sought more transparency in decision-making, with foresight, technology assessment, and key technologies approaches coming to the fore, alongside other tools such as research evaluation and impact assessment.
Technology assessment (TA) has diverged into environmental impact analysis (EIA), strategic environmental impact analysis (SEIA) andconstructive TAWHILE otherprocesses include energy analysis (firstdevelopedbysoddy) andlife cycle analysis (LCA).
The focus of the Conference was on foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment methods and tools.
10.1108/14636681211256071 Jens Schippl and Torsten Fleischer are both Senior researchers at the Karlsruhe Institute of technology (KIT), Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe, Germany.
There is a discussion about the potentials of discursive tools in the literature related to participative Technology assessment (pta;
Grunwald, A. 2009),‘Technology assessment: concepts and methods'',Handbook of the Philosophy of Science, Volume 9:
About the authors Jens Schippl is a Senior researcher at the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe Institute of technology.
jens. schippl@kit. edu Torsten Fleischer is a Senior researcher at the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe Institute of technology.
To conclude, we will discuss how the analysis of early dynamics is a vital ingredient of technology assessment studies that,
By placing the constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach in a historical perspective of technology assessment we will show the relevance of our method for CTA studies.
Technology assessment; Expectations; Agenda building 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:
and we employ it in our case study. We will show that it is possible to trace emerging irreversibilities for a specific application of nanotubes (Section 3). We will conclude by placing our contribution in a historical perspective of technology assessment
Our attempt relates to the historical trend of technology assessment methods to incorporate and exploit the actual technology dynamics 32.
Technology assessment (TA) started in the late 1960s as an dearly warningt method 33, merely to inform parliaments about possible negative effects of new technologies.
By striving to play an active role in the 15 The first dedicated technology assessment organisation was the Office of Technology assessment (OTA)( founded in 1972.
The Approach of Constructive technology assessment, Pinter Publishers, London, 1995.33 R. Smits, A. Leyten, Technology assessment, Waakhond of speurhond?
technology assessment: watchdog or tracker dog. Dissertation, Zeist, Kerckebosch, The netherlands (1991. 34 J. W. Schot, A. Rip, The past and future of constructive technology assessment, Technology Forecasting and Social Change 54 (1997) 251 268.
and risk, neglecting as a consequence the use of forecasting techniques, foresight methods and technology assessment procedures.
forecasting and technology assessment methods and tools to the legal sphere. 2. Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA)‘‘Future-oriented technology analysis''(FTA) was created the term to encompass the different tools
, technology forecasting and technology assessment 3. The JRC-IPTS, through the FTA overarching concept and a series of sponsored biennial seminars 4,
technology forecasting and technology assessment communities, along with the broader field of future studies) have come together to discuss
For a clarification on the differences and similarities among the wide array of terms, methods and approaches that are included in the umbrella term of FTA, such as technology forecasting, technology assessment, roadmapping, technology foresight,
For the distinction between technology assessment, foresight and technology forecasting made by the European Science and Technology observatory Network (ESTO), see Rader (2001).
and prioritizing the future areas of regulation. 6. These were the cases of the future-oriented technology assessment exercises conducted during the period 1974-1995 by the US Office of Technology assessment (OTA).
''Regarding technology assessment, it is interesting to note that it‘‘originally emerged with the aim of contributing to the balance of power between the legislative and executive branches of government,
Rader, M. 2001),‘Monitoring of technology assessment activities'',report by the European Science and Technology observatory Network, Seville.
Assessing emerging technologies Methodological challenges and the case of nanotechnologies Torsten Fleischer*,Michael Decker, Ulrich Fiedeler Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe Gmbh, P. O. B
accepted 2 october 2004 Abstract Technology assessment reflecting on R&d and technological trends in the area of nanotechnology and its implications is confronted with the problem that most scientific endeavours of nanotechnology can be allocated to basic research
Since technology assessment has to integrate the socioeconomic context of a technical product in order to be comprehensive, in the case of nanotechnology a preparing step is necessary
Technology assessment; Nanotechnology 1. Introduction Emerging technologies pose considerable challenges for dclassicalt technology assessment (TA. If TA focuses on the outcomes or impacts of a technology,
it can be performed only at later stages of technology development when societal implications can easily be identified and determined.
and new questions Technology assessment (TA) is a scientific, interactive and communicative process with the aim to contribute to the public and political opinion forming on science and technology related societal aspects 1 like exploitation of potential, dealing with secondary effects,
Over the last years, the landscape for Technology assessment has changed significantly. TA has started with the investigation of large complex technologies (conventional or nuclear energy technologies, aerospace technologies...
or probable technology impacts in decisions already at an early stage is part of the basic concept of technology assessment.
particularly the sustainability assessments of technology, is prepared by decades of experiences with technology assessments. Consideration of the long term perspective
and methodical approaches of technology assessment for sustainability assessments of technology 2. The requirements on sustainability assessments and their consideration in decision-making represent until now unknown degree of methodical challenges even with regard to very ambitious concepts of technology assessment,
It is no exaggeration to say that the known methodological problems of technology assessment come to a head here. 3. Nanotechnology Nanotechnology is among the most prominent emerging technologies,
nanotechnology is a case for technology assessment. Technology assessment of nanotechnology has to deal with several methodological challenges:
First of all: Up to now it is blurred quite what in detail should be considered as dnanotechnologyt and what not. Until now, there is no definition of nanotechnology that is generally accepted in the scientific community.
What does that mean for the technology assessment of nanotechnology? The first part of the answer is rather simple:
These established methods are common in technology assessment and widely accepted internationally 5 . But the hopes and questions reach much further.
and perhaps also between market research and technology assessment. Such a reflexive procedure surely would take into account the numerous demands from the debate on sustainable research and technology policies. 4. Roadmapping methodology as a tool for technology assessment of nanotechnology?
4. 1. Science and technology roadmapping a brief introduction A standard definition of roadmap or droadmappingt does not exist.
and risks and calls for technology assessment of these technologies, political requirements to orientate R&d budgets on the potential contribution of new developments to sustainable development puts some pressure on the TA practitioner.
Similar to roadmapping, there is no general methodology for technology assessment. TA projects can differ by task, subjects and questions of investigation and addressee.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1117 be as specific and reliable as necessary to be the basis for a valid and sound technology assessment
and outlook The landscape for Technology assessment has changed over the last few years. Political priorities are altering
Nanotechnology is a clear case for technology assessment. Because of the diversity of scientific and technological approaches pursued under the umbrella of dnanotechnologyt, for TA purposes some preparatory steps are needed.
Technology assessment Methods and Impacts, Springer Heidelberg, New york, 2004. T. Fleischer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1120 2 T. Fleischer, A. Grunwald, Technikgestaltung fu r mehr Nachhaltigkeit Anforderungen an die Technikfolgenabscha
After serving as a project manager for several technology assessment studies for the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS) of Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Germany,
and the Office of Technology assessment at the German Parliament (TAB), he is currently heading the project group btechnology Assessment for Nanotechnologiesq at ITAS.
and studies dealing with methodological aspects of Technology assessment. Since 2003 he is a member of the scientific staff and since February 2004 deputy head of the Institute for Technology assessment and System Analysis (ITAS) at the Research centre Karlsruhe.
Ulrich Fiedeler is a Postdoc Research Associate in the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS) of Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe.
He has a background in physics with emphasis in the field of semiconductors and solar cells.
At present he is working in several projects concerning technology assessment of nanotechnology. T. Fleischer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1121
These unique conferences have brought together practitioners from three different communities of foresight, forecasting and technology assessment.
forecasting and technology assessment research techniques of and for their respective communities. Futures studies are omitted. Derrida's comment,
what are believed commonly to be the metaphors from foresight, forecasting and technology assessment: all have a long history and an equally long and growing catalogue of techniques to use:
forecasting and technology assessment are construed often as theory. To search for a philosophical cum theoretical basis to underlie FTA seems to be limited of value.
Currenntly he is Programme Director of Technology assessment of Nanonextnl, the leading Dutch research consortium in nanotechnology.
Towards a repertoire for technology assessment. Heidelberg: Springer verlag. Groenveld, P. 1997. Roadmapping integrates business and Technology research Technology management 40, no. 5: 48 55.
Through its components (foresight, forecasting and technology assessment), FTA has an undeniably arduous role to play.
Technology assessment (Step H) has not been carried out yet. Synthesis and reporting (Step I) to explicit target users have not been emphasised in this scholarly exercise.
4. 7. Calls to perform technology assessment (Step H) Much of the FIP process serves to promote the first type of technology assessment evaluation of competing technologies.
A first step is to broaden the technology assessment beyond the technology alone, to expand selection criteria beyond technical functionality to consider cost, infrastructures, and compatibility.
This leads us to the second type of technology assessment impact assessment. We especially would like to identify potential hazards
Technology assessment: A tool kit. Chemtech 6 june: 372 83. Collingridge, D. 1980. The social control of technology. London:
forecasting and technology assessment and thus it is not a discipline with solid, widely accepted theoretical foundations.
Technology assessment activities part of the FTA family can also influence technological trajectories. Two papers from the same school Hamarat et al. 11 and Kwakkel and Pruit 12 address the need for novel methods and techniques to support adaptive policy-making.
(which comprises Foresight, Forecasting and Technology assessment), 1 foresight practitioners have concentrated traditionally on participatory methods based on qualitative data,
Another part of the FTA COMMUNITY, constituted by Forecasting and Technology assessment practitioners, holds an opposite standpoint, considering qualitative and participatory approaches as a second best option, to which we are compelled somehow to refer until adequate quantitative methods arise.
, technology assessment but that is beyond the scope of this study. This study is based on patent documents;
, NDIA Systems Engineering Conference online at, http://lincoln. gsfc. nasa. gov/trl/Nolte2003. pdf 2003.8 NASA, HRST Technology assessments.
are useful metaphors in the realm of economics, business and technology assessment. But few people realize that the inverse is also a common usage:
and technology assessment, describing the competition among firms or innovations, or simply among products struggling for a bigger market share.
and technology assessment 1. In their own ways each of these approaches is used for analyzing technological developments and their potential consequences.
Governance Emerging technologies Key enabling technologies Nanotechnology Public engagement Foresight Technology assessment Responsible research and innovation 1. Introduction As science and technology become more central to economic development,
but rather also in processes such as technology forecasting, technology assessment and participatory future-oriented studies, involving scientists, policymakers, media,
and technology assessment studies included actors and knowledge mainly from science and industry 1, 19 22.
In this paper, FTA is used as the umbrella term covering subfields such as technology foresight, technology forecasting, technology roadmapping and technology assessment cf. the list in 29 and combining tools, ranging fromquantitative methods
The studies brought together science and technology assessment of different fields of what would then be called nanoscale science and technology.
the technology assessment activities and the vision building process served to link disperse organizations and research fields
Another concept, highlighted in the report is real-time technology assessment, a research program to integrate natural science and engineering investigations with social science and policy research from the outset 44.
and real-time technology assessment 3. The report refers to the previous involvement of a broad variety of stakeholders
and focused in the early stages on technology analysis, market analyses and technology assessment activities. The BMBF commissions the Association of German Engineers Technology Center (VDI-TZ), a subsidiary company of the Association of German Engineers (VDI),
conducting studies on specific nano-subfields and by bringing together relevant actors from science and industry through workshops and expert discussion 6. Technology intelligence, technology assessment,
In 2003 the Office of Technology assessment at the German Parliament conducted a broad technology assessment on nanotechnology 49.
and research to pool the distributed strategic knowledge gained from different activities such as technology intelligence, parliamentary technology assessment, technology monitoring and dialogue processes.
Handbook of Science and Technology studies, MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass, 2008, pp. 979 1000.44 D. H. Guston, D. Sarewitz, Real-time technology assessment, Technol.
Initially the more mature and recognized technology assessment strand appeared to offer both a stronger research base and a more direct connection to policy.
While the technology assessment crowd and the small but regularly present business oriented strategy practitioners voiced worries about the‘‘scientific''legitimacy and practical effectiveness of the at times open ended and exploratory nature of thinking about the future.
JRC-IPTS has defined FTA as‘a common umbrella term for technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment'12.
DBT has been serving as parliamentary technology assessment and utilised interaction-oriented methods, such as futures workshops, citizen panels and consensus conferences.
The combination of the widespread use of policy evaluations and the DBT's parliamentary technology assessment might have constituted a platform for policy making that would make the need for foresight less urgent.
1 The FTA acronym refers to strategic foresight, forecasting and technology assessment. doi: 10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.03.001 The six articles included in this Special issue were presented in 2006.
Senior researcher at the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS) of the Research centre Karlsruhe, joined ITAS'forerunner AFAS in 1979 and has worked
Attachment to the Secretariat of the German Bundestag's Enquete Commission on Technology assessment prior to the creation of the German Parliament's Office of Technology assessment (TAB),
Led several ITAS projects on information and communication technologies, convergence of nano, bio, info and cogno technologies and on a European Infrastructure for Technology assessment.
Involved in the management of the European Technology assessment Group providing scientific services for the European parliament's Scientific Technological Options Assessment (STOA) panel, the technology assessment unit of the European parliament.
From the seventies and eighties onwards, several proactive and more bottom-up technology assessment approaches emerged in different countries,
An Analysis of the Possible Roles of Parliamentary Technology assessment in Innovation policy, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht, 2004.19 K. De Moor, K. Berte, L. De Marez, W. Joseph
forecasting and technology assessment can play a number of important roles in linking a firm's strategy to its implementation across the value chain.
In this context, the inclusion of forecasting and technology assessment features would allow further experimentation (e g. modelling) in relation to the possible pathways actors can pursue both individually and collectively.
Innovation processes Futures research Generation 1 Technology push Technology forecasting Generation 2 Market pull Technology assessment Generation 3 Coupled innovation processes Exploratory futures research Generation
forecasting and technology assessment to reflect on these challenges. The third conference focused on the impact that FTA can have on policy and decisiionmaking and its implications.
and shape future technological developmennts mainly, technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment. The FTA labbe brings together a set of widely differing techniqques
Technology assessment: Methods and Impacts. Springer: Berlin, Heidelberg, New york. Eerola, A and I Miles 2008. Methods and tools contributing to FTA.
technology assessment and other foresigght) By repeating the scanning on a regular basis more insight can be gained on the impact of these activities
154) technology assessment is:..not designed to directly influence political decision making, but to prepare knowledge that is relevant for decision making.
Buetschi and Nentwich (2000) identified several context or foundational success factors for influencing the political role of participatoor technology assessment (see Table 3). These studies tell us that FTA EXERCISES should not be viewed independently of their contexts
innovations implemented and legislation adopted Table 3. Success factors influencing the political role of participatory technology assessment Societal Institutional Process properties Good timing
Assessing the impact of future-oriented technology assessment. Paper presented at EU US Seminar: New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain.
technology assessment. 1. Introduction Recent years have seen a great deal of discussion on how science, technology and innovation (STI) systems might be reoriented to better address several grand challenges that affect not only contemporary societies but also the future of human civilisation itself.
Certain traditions in the FTA family of approaches, particuularl technology assessment, have taken the reorientatiio of technological trajectories and innovation activities as an explicit goal.
of strategic foresight, forecasting and technology assessment. These are oriented future processes that offer policy -and decision-makers the potential to look across (disruptive) transformations
as reflected, for instance, in the creation of new dedicated horizonscanning centres, the strengthening of parliamentary technology assessment offices and the establishment of dedicated foresight units in firms and public administration.
Salo, A. and Kuusi, O. 2001)‘ Developments in parliamentary technology assessment in Finland',Science and Public policy, 28: 453 64.
Smith, J.,Cook, A. and Packer, C. 2010)‘ Evaluation criteria to assess the value of identification sources for horizon scanning',International Journal of Technology assessment in Health care, 26: 348 53.
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