whereas Gao et al. 7 propose the development of a new forecasting approach to analysing technology life cycle of a particular technology of interest.
which is currently the major forecasting approach to analyse technology life cycle (TLC), they propose a model to calculate the TLC for a technology based on multiple patent-related indicators.
The right understanding where a certain technology is in its TLC is important to estimate its future development,
and thus decide whether to invest in it or not. The authors claim that the first step for devising a technology strategy is to decide
and assessing patent-based TLC indicators using a Nearest Neighbour Classifier, which is used widely in pattern recognition,
to measure the technology life cycle stage of the selected technology. Clearly, different types of technologies may have different developing patterns, especially for those technologies close to basic science, such as biotechnology,
7 L. Gao, A l. Porter, J. Wang, S. Fang, X. Zhang, T. Ma, W. Wang, L. Huang, Technology life cycle analysis method
Technology life cycle analysis method based on patent documents Lidan Gao a b,, Alan L. Porter c, Jing Wang d, Shu Fang a, Xian Zhang a, Tingting Ma e, Wenping Wang e, Lu Huang e
one needs to know the current stage of its technology life cycle (TLC). The dominant approach to analysing TLC uses the S-curve to observe patent applications over time.
But using the patent application counts alone to represent the development of technology oversimplifies the situation.
In this paper, we build a model to calculate the TLC for an object technology based on multiple patent-related indicators.
and assessing patent-based TLC indicators. Then we choose some technologies (training technologies) with identified life cycle stages,
which is used widely in pattern recognition to measure the technology life cycle stage of the object technology.
Technology life cycle Patent Indicator Cathode ray tube Thin film transistor liquid crystal display Nano-biosensor 1. Introduction The rapidly changing economic environment
The concept of the technology life cycle (TLC) was presented by Arthur 9 to measure technological changes. It includes two dimensions the competitive impact and integration in products or process and four stages.
According to this definition, Ernst 10 developed a map to illustrate TLC (Fig. 1). The dominant approach to analysing TLC with an S-curve is to observe technological performance,
Usually, patent application activity is tracked as a TLC indicator for the S-curve analysis 10,12, 13.
Accordingly, some multiple indicators are used to measure TLC. Watts and Porter 14 have introduced nine indicators that look at publications of different types during the technology life cycle.
Reinhard et al. 15 tested seven indicators related to patents. Table 1 shows the indicators listed in the two papers.
and hope that would help decision makers estimate its future development trends. 2. Methodology The model that we build to calculate the TLC for an object technology includes the following steps:
and assessing patent-based TLC indicators, then we choose some technologies (training technologies) with identified life cycle stages,
and finally we compare the indicator features in training technologies with the indicator values in an object technology Fig. 1. The S-curve concept of technology life cycle. 399 L. Gao et al./
Thirteen indicators are selected for TLC assessment (Table 2). All the data of the indicators are extracted by priority year (the first filing date year for a patent application
Currently, most of TLC related literatures are based on application year 15,17 20. But the priority year presents the first time an invention has been disclosed.
we count the number of patents Table 1 Technology life cycle indicators by former researchers. Author Indicator Robert J Watts, Alan L Porter 14 Number of items in databases such as Science Citation Index number of items in databases such as Engineering
. Framework of TLC analysis. 400 L Gao et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 in DII by application year for the Application indicator and count the number of patents in DII by priority year for the Priority indicator
Number of Inventors has been used as indicator to measure the TLC of RFID 21. We count the number of unique individual inventors of each year by priority year. 2. 1. 4. Citation Two major types of cited references are given in a patent:
IPC code has been used as an indicator to measure the technology life cycle 26. We count the number of IPCS 4-digit) in DII by priority year for the IPC indicator;
Table 2 Technology life cycle indicators. No. Indicator Indicator description 1 Application Number of patents in DII by application year 2 Priority Number of patents in DII by priority year 3 Corporate Number
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 2. 2. TLC stages of CRT and TFT-LCD It is better to choose a training technology with four TLC stages.
We developed the questionnaires based on the concept of TLC given by Arthur D. Little 9. Ten experts in CRT,
we finally determined the TLC stages of CRT and the stages of TFT-LCD based on one related paper 29.
Table 3 shows the TLC stages of CRT and TFT-LCD as given by the experts and literature. 2. 3. Search query The search terms for each technology are defined simply
Table 3 TLC stages of CRT and TFT-LCD. Stage Emerging Growth Maturity Decline Period (year)( CRT) 1897 1929 1930 1972 1973 2000 2001 2020 Period (year)( TFT-LCD
ð11þ Since we have the TLC stages of TFL-LCD and CRT, we can form the label set of training set L la la 1;
f ð12þ li represents TLC stages of TFT-LCD and CRT. For a training point aj O and test point bk, the distance between aj and bk is defined as dist aj;
vuutð13þ Table 4 Cross-correlation analysis for 13 indicators (r=0. 9). TLC stage Emerging Growth Maturity Decline Group 1 1, 2
that is the TLC stage information of NBS. 3. Results and implications for management Table 5 shows the label results for each test point of NBS.
And according to the definition of TLC, in a technology's growth stage, there are pacing technologies with high competitive impact that have not yet been integrated into new products or processes.
it is a good time to invest in NBS to pursue potentialmarkets. 4. Conclusions How might technology life cycle analysis based on patents contribute to FTA?
it adopts 13 indicators that can be quantified to measure the TLC stages of an object technology.
This is due to the lack of ideal training technologies with four TLC stages. So, this study resembles a laboratory test.
How might this TLC estimation method fit in with other FTA techniques? Porter 40 suggested considering the use of multiple FTA METHODS tailored to the type of foresight study.
TLC is intriguing in that it combines aspects of several of those: trend analyses (where it best fits),
More importantly, we suggest that TLC would be complemented by informal and/or formal expert opinion to check the results
and to identify factors apt to alter the course of development that TLC suggests. It is oriented mid-term (i e.,
Table 5 TLC stages of NBS. 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 lb 1 1
2007 2008 lb 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 So the TLC stages estimated for NBS are:
Yuan Christian University, Taiwan, 2005.13 C. M. Chu, Using technology life cycle to analysis the developing trend of thin-film photovoltaic industry, Ph d. dissertation, National Central
Change 56 (1997) 25 47.15 R. Haupt, M. Kloyer, M. Lange, Patent indicators for the technology life cycle development, Res.
Inf. 9 (2006) 160 166.18 C. M. Chu, Using technology life cycle to analysis the developing trend of thin-film photovoltaic industry, Ph d. dissertation, National Central
Futures research methodology Version 3. 0.,Millennium Project, WFUNA, WASHINGTON DC, 2009, Chapter 8. 35 E t. Popper, B. D. Buskirk, Technology life cycles in industrial markets, Ind.
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