and constraining the development of emerging technologies, failing to use available techniques to encourage culture change in stakeholder organisations
This paper describes, through a case study on solid oxide fuel cells, the value of quick text mining profiles of emerging technologies.
and understand the dynamics of emerging technologies. The article introduces the importance of understanding and tracing the role of dirreversibilitiest of technological changes (i e. expectations that guide the research activities of scientists and firms,
The article illustrates the use of roadmapping as a tool for TA contributions to the sustainability assessment of emerging technologies.
and 1980s were influenced strongly by the linear idea that the consensus achieved in Delphi could serve as a forecast and thus as a foundation for taking preparatory actions to exploit emerging technologies.
, business actors to involve themselves with an emerging technology, which is in turn often a precondition for it to mature through learning-by-doing
These kinds of insights should then serve as an input for today's policy-makers to prioritise, for instance, emerging technologies and design corresponding policies.
but also emerging technologies, sectors or markets in order to shape pro-actively innovation-promoting regulatory framework conditions, which are crucial for the competitiveness of national or regional innovation systems.
which allows future needs for standards in an emerging technology to be identified. Blind and Gauch 39 conducted a survey among the stakeholders of nanotechnology research and standardisation in Germany.
they derive that in a new emerging technology at first terminology standards, then measurement and testing standards and only later in the innovation cycle quality,
Many networks and platforms have dedicated working groups or programmes on foresight, strategic planning and anticipation of societal and ethical hurdles to innovation based on emerging technologies.
U. Fiedeler, Assessing Emerging technologies Methodical Challenges and the Case of Nanotechnologies, EU US Seminar: New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 2004, pp. 13 14.29 S. Kuhlmann, et al.
Human choice and climate change, vol. 2, Batelle Press, Columbus, 1998.47 R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente, Tracing emerging irreversibilities in emerging technologies:
analysts should avail themselves of a wide variety of techniques appropriate for the task at hand. 3. Methodology In the following section we develop an analytical method for the representation of emerging technologies in the form of a hierarchical graph.
Foresight exercises, in turn, usually identify the possible future developments, driving forces, emerging technologies, barriers, threats and opportunities related to a broader socio-techno-economic system.
To identify possible future developments, driving forces, emerging technologies, barriers, threats and opportunities related to a broader socio-technoeconnomi system.
Retrospective studies of emerging technology applications/products (from disciplines of Management and Sociology of Innovation) reveal that the journeys twist
robinson@emerging technologies. eu. 0040-1625/$ see front matter 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi: 10.1016/j. techfore. 2009.07.015 Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Technological forecasting
uncertain and involve multiple actors working at multiple levels shot through with anticipatory strategies and expectations on risks and benefits of the emerging technology field.
Thus the innovation journey (represented in Fig. 1 as a branching line) is made up of a path to innovation (a pathway represented by the bubbles in the centre of Fig. 1) where the emerging technology itself
the IC+provides a game board for locating emerging technologies and evolving arenas and thus a way of framing our scenarios.
or FTA mechanisms that are reflexive of the wider complexities of new and emerging technologies? Who should be involved and when?
Mapping and Scenarios for Emerging technologies. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Society for Social Study of Science (4s) in Montreal, Quebec, 2007.3 A. Rip, H. te Kulve, Constructive technology assessment and sociotechnical scenarios, in:
for emerging technologies, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 75 (3 march 2008) 312 333.11 P. Larédo, E. Jolivet, E. Shove, S. Raman, A. Rip, E. Moors, B. Poti, G
34 R. van Merkerk, R. E. H. M. Smits, Tailoring CTA for emerging technologies, Technol. Forecast.
The context of science is strategic research and emerging technologies, and it is economical and competitive (and not to better understand nature and humankind).
This paper makes the case for quick text mining profiles of emerging technologies. 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:
upon being alerted to a need to assess an emerging technology, the analyst can obtain the records immediately from such sources.
facets of an emerging technology quickly. Collectively, the integration of the four QTIP factors results in a qualitative change in FTA.
, policy-makers and managers who weigh emerging technology considerations as either their main focus or as contributing factors,
Hence it is important to be clear that there is a need for emerging technologies to be subject to social scrutiny.
Tracing emerging irreversibilities in emerging technologies: The case of nanotubes Rutger O. van Merkerk T, Harro van Lente 1 Department of Innovation studies, Utrecht University, P o box 80125,3508 TC, Utrecht, The netherlands
and understanding the dynamics of emerging technologies. Our key concept is the notion of irreversibilities that emerge in the ongoing activities of researchers, institutes, policy makers and firms.
Emerging technology; Irreversibility; Technology assessment; Expectations; Agenda building 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:
Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1. Introduction Assessing emerging technologies is a necessary,
but intrinsic uncertainties inherently related to emerging technologies. Our basic claim is that in order to appreciate and to influence developments in new emerging technologies,
an understanding of the dynamics is necessary. As nanotechnology is intended the partly, partly unintended outcome of the moves of many actors in industry, research and policy,
As a rule in emerging technologies, the stakes and the expectations are high for various actors. At the same time, the situation is very fluid,
Nanotechnology is a rising star in the set of new and emerging technologies. Many countries and firms feel the need to explore
insights in the fluidic situation and the dynamics of emerging technologies can be gained. Our attempt relates to the historical trend of technology assessment methods to incorporate
in order to appreciate and to influence developments in new emerging technologies, an understanding of the early dynamics is necessary.
thus, to ignore the deeply fluid character of new emerging technologies in their first stages 11.
A Technical, Political and Institutional Map of Emerging technologies, Greenpeace Environmental Trust, London, 2003, July 14 Royal Society, Royal Academy of Engineering, Nanoscience and nanotechnologies:
The netherlands) working on Constructive technology assessment of emerging technologies and nanotechnology in particular. His research focuses on characterising emerging technologies and anticipating on prospective technological developments.
He holds MS degrees in Applied Physics with a specialisation in Materials Science, and Business administration with a specialisation in Small Business and Entrepreneurship, both from the University of Groningen, The netherlands.
Assessing emerging technologies Methodological challenges and the case of nanotechnologies Torsten Fleischer*,Michael Decker, Ulrich Fiedeler Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe Gmbh, P. O. B
Nanotechnology 1. Introduction Emerging technologies pose considerable challenges for dclassicalt technology assessment (TA. If TA focuses on the outcomes or impacts of a technology,
The assessment of emerging technologies implies the introduction of new methods into the toolkit of the TA practitioner.
and tested. 2. Assessment of emerging technologies changing framework and new questions Technology assessment (TA) is a scientific,
This holds considerable methodological challenges with respect to analysis and assessment for all emerging technologies but especially for emerging enabling technologies.
It is no exaggeration to say that the known methodological problems of technology assessment come to a head here. 3. Nanotechnology Nanotechnology is among the most prominent emerging technologies,
when TA results are expected to contribute to the sustainability assessment of emerging technologies. Nanotechnology is considered mainly as one of the technological developments to have far-reaching impacts on the industries of this century.
European commission, IST Programme Future and Emerging technologies, 1999.14 G. Fernholz, Roadmaps in MEMS/MST: what do they offer
His research interests concern how emerging technologies such as nanotechnology hydrogen and medical technologies produce novelty and needs.
Foresight and decision-making The main goal of strategic foresight at Philips is to drive the renewal of the organisation by figuring out how to exploit the new market opportunities enabled by emerging technologies or in response to changing customer needs.
which the roadmapping is approached as a normative instrument to identify relevant emerging technologies and to align these technologies with explicit product plans
He has published widely in the field of foresight, on topics such as roadmapping, emerging technologies and infrastructures,
Once a set of multi-database, emerging technology search results has been obtained, we devise a means to help extract intelligence on key technology components and functions, major stakeholders,
which emerging technologies contribute to commercial innovation. To facilitate the analysis of technological change, Hekkert et al. 2007) articulate‘functions of innovation systems'.
quite willing to revisit the earlier steps as one learns more about the emerging technology and distinguishes vital issues affecting potential commercial or other applications.
and technology information to generate and visualise intelligence on emerging technologies. Lu Huang is a faculty member in the School of management and Economics, Beijing Institute of technology.
Tracing emerging irreversibilities in emerging technologies: The case of nanotubes. Technological forecasting & Social Change 72, no. 9: 1094 112.
Their main role was to identify key or emerging technologies, looking into the development of science and technology and the expected changes in society.
or emerging technologies should be integrated and adequately embedded in society to achieve social goals and tackle social issues.
Shaper-Rinkel 13 analyses future-oriented governance of emerging technologies in the USA and in Germany,
as well as due to new combinations of existing and/or emerging technologies. Technology assessment activities part of the FTA family can also influence technological trajectories.
Shaper-Rinkel 13 analyses future-oriented governance of emerging technologies. She explores the role that different types of FTA played in the development of nanotechnology governance in the USA and in Germany.
Hence, the implication for future emerging technologies is that the methodology and practice of FTA should consider the governance dimension from the beginning by acknowledging that monitoring
13 P. Shaper-Rinkel, The role of future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology, Technol.
The long term prospects of emerging technologies are usually scrutinised through the lens of e g. Cost Benefit Analysis
Herein, one anticipates growth in an emerging technology based on the pattern of growth observed in a somewhat related technology.
When a complex technical system incorporates a number of emerging technologies, use of TRLS has proven helpful in designing a viable new system.
The current energy systemis mainly dominated by fossil energy generation technologies which are being challenged by rapidly evolving emerging technologies.
ethics and sustainability, of emerging technologies mainly inside agriculture, food production, biotechnology and bioenergy. Furthermore, he is an expert in foresight and scenario methodologies,
The role of future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology Petra Schaper-Rinkel AIT Austrian Institute of technology, Donau-City-Straße 1, A-1220 Vienna, Austria a r t i c l e
Governance Emerging technologies Key enabling technologies Nanotechnology Public engagement Foresight Technology assessment Responsible research and innovation 1. Introduction As science and technology become more central to economic development,
the question of future-oriented governance of emerging technologies gets raised repeatedly. A decade ago, the question addressed how to maximize the contribution of such technologies to economic innovation with the intention of enhancing competitiveness 1, 2. Today,
and Germany The early history of nanotechnology as an emerging technology is heterogeneous. In the 1980s a first funding program was established in UK that has fallen
Usually, two US visions are seen as the starting point of nanotechnology as an emerging technology. The early individual vision of Eric Drexler, who envisioned a distant future vision of molecular manufacturing in the late 1980s,
J. Radin, Bounding an emerging technology: para-scientific media and the Drexler Smalley debate about nanotechnology, Soc.
as in the case of emerging technologies, the diverse and dynamic environment enables the actors within the pluralistic system to use FTA to build up governance networks
The function of these participatory processes can be seen as part of acceptance politics 57 that attempts to increase acceptance of emerging technologies.
and technology as early as possible have given rise to efforts to monitor emerging technologies on a global scale.
as they intended to identify emerging technologies and not to shape the field. Nonetheless, these activities contributed to forming the field and shaping the expectations.
The implication for future emerging technologies is that the methodology and practice of FTA should consider the governance dimension from the beginning by acknowledging that monitoring
science fiction as science, Configurations 10 (2002) 261 296.36 S. Kaplan, J. Radin, Bounding an emerging technology:
Her current research focuses on foresight, governance of emerging technologies, and methods and practices of futuring. 452 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452
and Gemu nden 5. Foresight role Impact Initiator role Identify new needs Identify emerging technologies Identify competitors'concepts early Strategist role Assess
the network is used to identify new needs, emerging technologies, and to a lesser degree competitors'concepts at an early stage (initiator role of foresight).
or a strategy for a region to engage in an active market creation in the context of some promising emerging technology.
Secondly, the literature on systemic innovations and transition managemeen emphasizes the dynamic relations of sociotechnoologica landscapes, socio-technical regimes and niche-level innovations in the context of emerging technologies (Geels and Schot 2007.
opportunities based on emerging technologies Technology roadmap 2 Technology roadmap n Figure 1. Generic structure of systemic transformation roadmap. 182.
Commissioned by the Victorian government, the purpose of the Victoria Technology roadmap was to build a synthesizing picture of the effects of emerging technologies and technology convergence in the region of Victoria, Australia, up until the year 2020.
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