the purpose of the analysis (awareness raising, envisioning, consensus building, corporate technology planning, etc; the reliability of source information;
The discussion also addressed the wider issues of the broadening perspectives that are being introduced to future work beyond technology and its development.
and more focused on how technology should be used to meet emerging future needs. The longstanding issue of the need for involvement (and engagement) by decision makers in the study were stressed also.
It was suggested that maybe technology foresight could learn something from the past 20 30 years in socioeconomic study of science and technology,
and technology publication and patent abstract databases to better inform technology management. This paper describes, through a case study on solid oxide fuel cells, the value of quick text mining profiles of emerging technologies.
and how tech mining outcomes could be used for technology management and on how the utility of outcomes can impact the different forms of FTA (i e. technology foresight, technology assessment, technology forecasting, technology and product roadmapping).
In the paper entitled dthe role of Scanning in Open Intelligent Systemst, Patton describes the system in place in SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE to scan the environment
but considering the dnew perspectivet of the impact of new capabilities that are provided by the Information technologies and the convergence of information and molecular technologies.
Social studies of technology; Policy strategy Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 Corresponding author.
and communication technologies has given rise to an internationalisation of research and innovation. This obviously makes the anticipation of future developments and their consequences more difficult than ever before.
uncertainty and interactivity. 1 Even if certain 1 In particular evolutionary and Neo-Schumpeterian economics as well as Social Studies of Technology have made important contributions 2. 464 E. A Eriksson,
K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 tendances lourdes can be identified like the development of electricity and propulsion technologies starting in the late 19th century and information
and communication technologies in the present era, the ability to predict at an early stage which particular pathways
First of all, it has moved away from a forecastingtyyp focus on science and technology to an incorporation of first market and then also increasingly social considerations.
465 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 distinct from‘technology forecasting'and the like. 3 This broadening
and combined it with the idea of being able to secure through national policy a leading edge in selected technologies 10.
also earlier technology forecasting approaches like the large Delphi studies introduced in Japan in the early seventies
and technology it must first be observed that many of the neat conceptual distinctions useful for,
Still we have found it quite practical in RTI policy to distinguish between robust and adaptive technology options
, respectively, technologies that can be seen to be useful for a wide range of future conditions
For example, many technologies embody characteristics of both robustness and adaptivity, i e. in general terms they are beneficial in all scenarios,
In fact, many technologies tend to have a double-edged character, because they can be beneficial under certain circumstances and detrimental under others.
and telecommunication technologies, are expected to have a very positive impact within an optimistic information society scenario. The same technology,
however, can be abused in a‘big brother'type of scenario when used for invading the privacy sphere of individuals.
For instance, they can refer to the promotion of individual technologies (e g. an R&d programme) as well as to the structural settings of the innovation systems (e g. liberalisation of energy supply.
and in technology and innovation policy they are criticised sometimes on the ground that they fail to provide the commitment necessary for, e g.,
, new energy technologies through early policy commitment 27. Adaptive planning does not mean to keep all options open as long as possible.
Adaptive options in technology and innovation policy should be seen not only as laboratory RTD, but can also include pilots
Niche Management 25 and Transition Management 26.14 FANTASIE Forecasting and Assessment of New Transport Technologies and Systems and their Impact on the Environment,
These projects focused on strategy and programme development in research, technology and innovation policy, and stressed the interdependenciie with other policy areas and other innovation actors.
technology and innovation policy at national and regional level. 21 These projects stress in particular the need to understand Adaptive foresight as a continuous monitoring,
see Andersen et al. 35.18 FISTERA Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research area was funded by the European commission between 2002
on Information society Technologies in the European research area) 49.475 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 identifying a hierarchy of driving variables such that some are seen as more fundamental/independent and others as more derived.
Each of the scenarios and pathways can be characterised in terms of technologies and policies that have been realised.
in order to assess and select those technology options and corresponding policies that promise to be either robust or adaptive (or both).
but at best be repeated every few years, for instance in line with an update of the overall technology and innovation policy strategy.
These projects cover a range of different application areas like production systems, transport and mobility systems, regional innovation systems, information and communication technologies and energy technologies.
The notion of adaptivity seems also very relevant from the perspective of developing countries that strongly depend on foreign markets and technologies.
References 1 D. Collingridge, The Social control of Technology Pinter, London, 1980.2 K. M. Weber, The Neo-Schumpeterian element in the sociological analysis of innovation, in:
I. Miles, Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research area (FISTERA), Key Findings, IPTS, Sevilla, 2006.37 M. Weber, R. Hoogma, B. Lane, J. Schot, Experimenting with Sustainable
Transport Technologies. A workbook for Strategic Niche Management University of Twente/IPTS, Enschede, 1999 Sevilla. 38 R. Hoogma, K. M. Weber, B. Elzen, Integrated long-term strategies to induce regime shifts to sustainability:
Strategische Leitlinien Technology and innovation for wealth creation and societal responsibility. Strategic guidelines, Report to the Austrian Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology BMVIT, Vienna, 2007.42 City of Vienna, Wiener Strategie für Forschung, Technologie und
Innovation Vienna Strategy for Research, Technology and Innovation, Vienna, 2007.43 K. M. Weber, A. Geyer, D. Schartinger, P. Wagner, Zukunft der Mobilität in Österreich.
Konsequenzen für die Technologiepolitik, Research report, Austrian Research centres, Seibersdorf, 2002.44 C. Freeman Technology policy and Economic Performance:
and project interrelations, Phd thesis, University of Technology Vienna, Vienna, 2007. Dr. E. Anders Eriksson received his Phd In operations Research from KTH in Stockholm in 1986.
and advising government on matters of research, technology and innovation policy. Apart from foresight methodologies, his main research interests are in the governance of research and innovation systems, in the transformation of large socio-technical systems towards sustainability
Experiences from the preparation of an international research program Ville Brummer a, 1, Totti Könnölä b, 2, Ahti Salo a a Systems analysis Laboratory, Helsinki University of Technology, P o box
each with a focus on a specific field of science and/or technology, for the purpose of supporting mutual learning, opening-up of national innovation systems and the development of new collaborative forms of European RTD funding.
Drawing upon experiences from earlier collaboration with the Systems analysis Laboratory at Helsinki University of Technology in the development of a Scandinavian co-funded Wood Material Science Research program 16, the project plan for the Woodwisdom
as well as the research team at TKK (Helsinki University of Technology) which was responsible for most activities in the design and implementation of the process (i e.,
References 1 A. Webster, Technologies in transition, policies in transition: foresight in the risk society, Technovation 19 (6 7)( 1999) 413 421.2 T. Jewell, International foresight's contribution to globalisation, Foresight The Journal of Futures studies, Strategic thinking and Policy
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 4 TFAMWG Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology futures analysis:
D. Roessner, Evaluating technology programs: tools and methods, Res. Policy 29 (4 5)( 2000) 657 678.6 J. P. Salmenkaita, A. Salo, Rationales for government intervention in the commercialization of new technologies, Technol.
Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Technical Report EUR-20137-EN, Seville, 2002.12 H. Prange, Technology and innovation policiers in the European systemofmulti-level
governance, Technikfolgenabschätzung Theorie und Praxis 12 (2)( 2003) 11 20.13 S. Kuhlmann, J. Edler, Scenarios of technology and innovation policies in Europe:
Change 70 (2003) 619 637.14 J. S. Metcalfe, Technology systems and technology policy in an evolutionary framework, Camb.
2005) is Researcher and doctoral student at the Systems analysis Laboratory of Helsinki University of Technology, with research interests in foresight, decision support systems and strategic decision making.
Totti Könnölä (M. Sc. 2001, D. Tech. 2006) is Researcher at the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) in Seville.
Previously, he has been Senior researcher at the VTT Technical research Centre of Finland, Researcher at the Systems analysis Laboratory in the Helsinki University of Technology and Expert in Gaia Group Oy
Ahti Salo (M. Sc. 1987, D. Tech. 1992) is Professor at the Systems analysis Laboratory with research interests in decision analysis, decision support systems, technology foresight, and risk management.
and evaluation activities, including the joint foresight project Finnsight 2015 of the Academy of Finland and the National Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation (Tekes),
Methodologies and selected applications Knut Blind Regulation and Innovation Competence Center Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research, Germany Berlin University of Technology, Faculty Economics and Management
In contrast to the longer tradition of impact assessment of Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Berlin University of Technology, Faculty
National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST. The focus of this paper will be neither on ex post impact assessment of regulations and standards nor on ex ante impact assessments of specific options of regulatory instruments.
prospect the potential impacts of current research, technology and regulatory policy, focus selectively on economic, technological, social and ecological areas as well as to start monitoring and detailed research in these fields.
whereas traditional technology foresight studies look for new promising fields in science and technology or new trends or needs in the market.
and are put in the context of possible evaluation and assessment technologies. Table 1 Evaluation matrix:
indicator-based approaches surveys Delphi studies. 3. Methodologies 3. 1. Indicator-based approaches 3. 1. 1. Introduction and definition New developments in science and technology
Changes and dynamics in science and technology can be identified and traced by different indicators. These indicators allow the creation of comparisons between scientific and technological fields, between countries, organisations,
patent indicators are suited better to perform regulatory foresight exercises in the sense of identifying dynamic fields of technology.
Patents indicate the emergence of possible technologies, which are likely to be introduced later into future markets.
The shortcoming of patents is that completely new fields of technology like biotechnology and software at first triggered off discussions about their patentability,
However, the use of time series of patent applications either differentiated by fields of technology, especially high technology,
Since there are numerous regulatory challenges triggered by the dynamics in science and technology one has to differentiate the analysis in those fields of high dynamics.
and technology. 3. 1. 2. Examples So far, there are not many exercises which use science
Blind 25 shows, based on international and inter-sectoral cross-section data, that the output of formal standardisation bodies can be explained significantly by the patent applications as a reliable indicator for the dynamics in the respective technologies.
it can be derived that dynamics in technology is reflected at least in standardisation activities as part of the regulatory framework in the European union.
which confirm the relationship between the dynamics of technology and the adaptation of the regulatory framework based on quantitative approaches, are missing.
However, the proved link between science and technology, on the one hand, and changes in existing regulations or new regulations, on the other hand, underlines that the former can in general be used to determine possible challenges for the regulatory framework in the future.
Furthermore, not all new developments in science and technology, but especially those with possible impacts on health, safety, the environment and on the functioning of markets require an adjustment of the regulatory framework.
However, the identification of those regulation-relevant new technologies or new specifications within mature technologies is only just beginning
The scope of science-and technology-based indicator approaches is certainly in detecting possible fields
Further more technology specific surveys focusing on the future regulatory requirements to react to progress in science
and technology and changes in markets have not been conducted. In the area of standards as parts of the regulatory system
and lead to representative results, the data can be combined with indicator-based approaches representing the universe in science and technology.
Regulation was included in a set of possible obstacles, like lack of capital or human resources, for the development of science and technology.
In Japan, the regulatory framework in communication technology is compared also crucial to most other technological areas 47.
The relatively small importance of the regulatory framework for the future development of new issues in science and technology compared to other policy instruments is confirmed in the follow-up studies,
but also in the field business regarding e-commerce-related issues. 4 In summary, Delphi exercises focusing on the future of science and technology take the general regulatory framework into account as one kind of obstacle,
However, the role of regulatory frameworks for the realisation of progress in future sciences and technologies compared to other types of obstacles is limited rather.
and to assess the future impacts of regulations in rather future sciences and technologies. However, surveying the activities in the last years,
technology capable of achieving both privacy protection and verification. In contrast the change of e-commerce-based retail shops from simple goods sellers to services (consulting, agent, etc.
needs for standardisation in information and communication technology (Source: NO-REST ITU Survey Fraunhofer ISI 2005)( 1=low importance to 5=high importance) Year Importance R&d Regulation Deregulation Standardisation Widespread use
. 20 Widespread use of online seal-free (signature-free) document preparation services for various official documents such as contracts which are provided via a network based on security technology capable of achieving both privacy
38 3. 19 Development of technology capable of automatically detecting viruses and automatically producing corresponding vaccines. 2010 4. 69 4. 03 2. 87 2. 47 3
exceeds 90%of all component parts. 2011 4. 16 4. 17 3. 97 2. 17 2. 83 Widespread use of a security technology that automatically monitors illicit
and technology working both in research institutes and private companies, is an option to improve the reliability and the validity of survey results.
and technology indicators combined with qualitative data Systematic approach Only quantitative data is not sufficient to detect emerging fields of regulation Comparison across technologies,
and even stakeholders Influence of non-technology-related factors cannot be considered Surveys Quantitative Micro data of the respondent
and impacts Impossibility to detect major technological breakthroughs and their regulatory requirements Semiquantiitativ In case of conflicting interests, missing-consensus about priorities Identification of experts Uncertainty increases with complexity of the context (technology, markets
and weaknesses of using this approach to identify future trends in science and technology. In addition
since not only experts in science and technology, possible users and consumers, but also members of public organisations, e g. regulatory bodies, have to be addressed.
if rather specific commercial applications of new sciences and technologies already exist. For shaping regimes of intellectual property rights,
-Baden, 2001.7 G. Tassey, Methods for Assessing the Economic impacts of Government R&d, National Institute of Standards & Technology, Gaithersburg, MD, 2003.8 K. Blind, B. Bührlen, C
9 B. R. Martin, Foresight in science and technology, Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag. 7 (2)( 1995) 139 168.10 K. Blind, K. Cuhls, H. Grupp, Current foresight activities in Central europe, Technol.
Flechtheim, Futurologie Möglichkeiten und Grenzen, Frankfurt/M./Berlin, 1968.13 O. Helmer, Social Technology, Basic books, New york/London, 1966.14 J. W. Forrester
Econ. 34 (16)( 2002) 1985 1998.26 R. Bekkers, G. Duysters, B. Verspagen, Intellectual property rights, strategic technology agreements and market structure the case of GSM
The Fifth Technology Forecast Survey Future technology in Japan (NISTEP Report No. 25, English translation of the 5th Japanese Delphi Report, abridged version), Tokyo. 44 Bundesministerium
The Sixth Technology Forecast Survey Future technology in Japan toward The Year 2025, No. 52, NISTEP Report, Tokyo,(1993.
, Comparing Technology Forecast Surveys, Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg, 1994.48 Science and Technology foresight Center (NISTEP), The Seventh Technoloy Forecast Future technology in Japan toward the Year 2030, No. 72
and holds the chair on Innovation Economics at the Berlin University of Technology since 2006. In addition he is head of the competence center Regulation and Innovation of the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research.
Multi-path mapping for alignment strategies in emerging science and technologies Douglas K. R. Robinson a,,
Tilo Propp b a Department of Science, Technology, Health and Policy Studies, University of Twente, Enschede, The netherlands b Department of Innovation and Environmental sciences, University of Utrecht, Utrecht
accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Roadmapping serves both short and long term (strategic) alignment in science and technology (S&t.
Constructive technology assessmentavailable online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 Corresponding author.
10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.02.002 1. Lacunae and prospects of assessment and alignment tools for emerging science and technology For innovation to succeed actor alignment in the form of innovation chains from laboratory to products
and the technology field is understood well. This is the case with incremental innovation in established technological paradigms.
For new and emerging fields of science and technology (S&t) where architectural (radical innovations might occur 1,
However, in an age of strategic science and high-investment projects decision makers need to identify possible and promising directions and options and influence technology emergence in advance.
Another term, with a similar outlook but not limited to technology only, is strategic intelligence (SI) 2
At both intra-organizational (department-level) and inter-organizational levels in technology and industry, roadmapping has become a fashionable alignment tool.
knowledge of the technology and market drivers) are generally uncertain 9, 21,22. New s&t are defined not by eventual application but characterised by‘generic richness,
because products/applications would need a high degree of coordination to enable integration of a large number of technology innovations into a platform
'which mirrors dynamics underlying technology S-curves: in early stages of technology emergence, the more flexible multi-path mapping is used;
in later stages, when the technological, regulatory and business context of the (hopefully) growiin start-up/SME has matured,
based on selected principles derived from natural sciences and on selected material technology().A technological paradigm embodies strong prescriptions on the directions of technical change to pursue and those to neglect.
Why do certain technologies become dominant even though they may be sub-optimal (such as the use of the QWERTY typewriter layout in computer consoles)?
foreseeing that this technology could aid them in their work or enable new lines of research,
High-throughput screening and microarray technologies are now in common use for measuring gene and protein expression and for assessing biological activity of potential drug targets.
and tested as technologies in of themselves as specific capabilities, techniques or devices. Examples could be a microfluidic channel, a fluid mixing system, a sample injector, positioner, sensor etc.
and bridge the technology hurdle of integrating these proof-of-principle devices and combine them into an experimental platform for systems research such as protein analysis in the lab (moving from phase 1 to phase 2). Such an integration of a number of devices into an experimental system is undertaken usually in a university laboratory.
With a multitude of projections of technology configurations and possible applications in circulation, and the lack of successful innovation chains meaning lab-on-a-chip remains at the research level,
and identify possible promising paths for the technology; 2. use analysis of path dynamics and other strategic intelligence to explore the robustness of specific paths located within the field map;
and 3. evaluate which paths show the most promise of successfully bridging the gaps in the innovation chain for single cell analysis with lab-on-a-chip technology.
Multiple cell analysis is a technology path in as far as platforms and instruments are constructed around the principle of using multiple cells;
and technologies shown in the lowest band on the diagram. Each decision is strategic as it requires investments and expertise on the parts of actors involved
Nevertheless more defined purposes require more specific technologies and hence, particular technological paths. The map shows the possible paradigms that can emerge.
The first path shows a technology that is already present within a start-up company (as a prospective component of an integrated system)
microfabrication and nanotechnology tools for cell analysis and (2) start-up companies and small-and medium-sized enterprises (SMES) relating to specific cell analysis techniques and lab-on-a-chip technology.
Identifying the end user is one clear approach to selecting the components and configurations of a technology innovation chain.
but requires a belief in the technology. The participants agreed that this is lacking in MNCS due to previous hype-disappointment cycles such as in biosensors.
and attempt to develop the technology. Intellectual property (IP) is shared with the MNC. Major issues here were agreed in the workshop to relate to the relationship between MNC and start-ups:
where technologies cannot be products in themselves but must be part of a system of technologies to be enabled. 22 Furthermore,
the workshop participants recognized the difficulty of researchers in public institutions getting credit in developing integrated platforms.
MPM-1 was developed to map technology-based complexitiie of future projections from various communities and for various phases of a prospective innovation chain.
We tailored this particular MPM with the generally acknowledged phases specific to lab-on-a-chip technology.
where insights into technology dynamics are explored with actors in order to broaden at an early stage the decision making process.
and R&d intelligence is separate from strategic management intelligence embodied in specialized technology consultancies but both cooperate in the context of alignment exercises.
if they can gain extra insights on organizational innovation chains (as well as the technology paths), and thus a tailoring of the tool for the start-up company is currently ongoing.
Making Use of Recent insights from Sociology and Economics of Technology, Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag. 7 (4)( 1995) 417 431.3 Richard E. Albright, Thomas A. Kappel, Roadmapping in the corporation, Res.
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New Directions in the Sociology and History of Technology, The MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts, 1987.37 P. A. David, Clio and the economics of QWERTY, American Economic Review, vol
Essays on Power, Technology and Domination, Routledge, London, 1991, pp. 132 161.45 M. Callon, The Dynamics of Techno-economic Networks, in:
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Using patterns and regularities in technology dynamics, in: R. Williams, K. H. Sorensen (Eds. Shaping technology, Guiding Policy:
Managing Technology in Society. The Approach of Constructive technology assessment, Pinter Publishers, London, 1995. Douglas K. R. Robinson obtained his undergraduate and master's degree in Physics and Space S&t at the University of Leicester (UK) and Universität Siegen (Germany.
He worked in South africa on the dynamics of social development projects and science-and-technology-in-society issues and at Twente University,
and complexity of the ways information and knowledge is mediated, especially through developments in information and communication technologies, the increasing importance of knowledge-based industries and the service sector,
The first round led people to understand that technology is shaped socially, and the need to widen the scope of the second round was acknowledged.
and extensive media promotion that raised the profile of science, technology and innovation on the national agenda.
and shape each other in the course of the creation, production and diffusion of specific technologies (28 pg. 387). 553 E. Amanatidou,
and collaborating technologies. 9. Conclusions Analysis of the major characteristics of the emerging knowledge societies suggest that the characteristics
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.16 Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology Futures analysis:
The rise of a large-scale European information technology initiative, Technology in Society 17 (4)( 1995) 385 412.
and led the EGIST (Evaluation of Government and Industry Strategies for Technology) group; and Technopolis Ltd, an innovation policy consultancy which he founded in 1989 and which,
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