Modelling

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Model (593)
Modelling (185)

Synopsis: Model: Modelling:

Therefore, a consolidated integration of analytical and exploratory scientific methods (e g. system analysis and modelling) on the one hand and of participatory processes and interactions with experts and stakeholders on the other would help enhance the scientific credibility of foresight results. 7‘Environmental scanning'along the lines

The strength of AF could be enhanced further by building where appropriate on new modelling approaches.

An example in this spirit is the Pardee Center at RAND who work with large scale modelling of

but the financial resources necessary for this approach are rarely available in the settings we are used to working in We also tend to prefer a larger role for verbal reasoning as opposed to mathematical modelling

Robust Portfolio Modeling Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 Corresponding author.

and multi-criteria analyses based on Robust Portfolio Modeling (briefly RPM Screening; see 9, 10. Particular attention is given to the development of a foresight design that responds to scalability requirements (e g.,

which is a variant of the Robust Portfolio Modeling (RPM) methodology for the analysis of innovation ideas and innovative concepts 9, 10,18, 19.

Change 74 (5)( 2007) 608 626.10 J. Liesiö, P. Mild, A. Salo, Preference programming for Robust Portfolio Modeling and project selection, Eur.

Policy 1 (1)( 2004) 70 88.18 J.,Liesiö, P.,Mild, A.,Salo, Robust Portfolio Modeling with incomplete cost information and project interdependencies, Eur.

Thus, the method itself should not be judged by the choice of these simplified types of universities, taken as somewhat arbitrary‘inputs'for‘modelling'.

This implies a renewed dedication to alternative exploratory modeling, robustness analysis and many of the other similar tools referenced below in the papers and a technical note.

Thus, exploratory modeling is used to explore Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 E-mail address:

and the prescription phase utilizes the roadmapping, backasting, modelling or simulation methods 42. Altogether, a substantial shift away from the fixed modelling and management towards more contingent and participatory approaches has taken place in all FTA areas.

Possible and potential futures are examined by applying, for instance, scenario, backcasting or roadmapping methods. Among other methods and practices in the field are constructive technology assessment

and also methods for a very detailed analysis, such as index methods and strict quantitative modelling.

The project states that a good modelling tool would help to model the future interdependencies supported by an integration of the scenario work and the systematic risk assessment. 3. 2. Managing opportunities,

Background information contains, for instance, the modelling of the changes in the river flows based on the climate change scenarios.

and evaluated by modelling them either quantitatively, semi-quantitatively or qualitatively. The same kind of activity is happening in the FTA action phase.

A good modelling tool would be helpful to model the future interdependencies. Roadmap, SWOT analysis

From fixed modelling and management towards more contingent and participatory approaches. 1174 R. Koivisto et al./

Do these arguments lead to the conclusion that modeling and policy research are dead? We think not,

the nature of modeling changes. In the old days validity was tested by building models with data through some date in the past

It will give new salience to agent modeling since the implicit rules of behavior of ever smaller groups will be known with increasing accuracy.

and Infrastructures for Human Living spaces) Productionconsumption 2. 0 Simulation and modelling Time research In order to assess the relevance of all the topics (fields

Complexity, modelling and simulation: new aspects to handle complexity with modelling and simulation require multidisciplinary approaches.

To work out the similarities in different application may be a first step to adapt the instruments and tools in other disciplines so that in the future even in technical and social science contexts,

A comparison of four scenario exercises related to global change applications suggests climate scenarios are used mostly to support further modeling and analysis,

towards a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling, Environ. Res. Lett. 3 (2008) 045015.22 W c. Clark, R. B. Mitchell, D. W. Cash, Evaluating the influence of global environmental assessments, in:

Management and modelling of biological knowledge 7. Information and communications Sensor technology applications Data mining, analysis, management and retrieval Bio-information technology 8. Understanding and human interaction Multicultural

and to the increasing role of modelling and simulation in developing a better understanding of complexity

The model and modelling techniques in use guided the data gathering of the system analysis part. Autonomous There was still a significant degree of freedom to adapt to the perceived needs during the process and the development of roadmaps and scenarios.

Fixed Robust portfolio modelling, online surveys. Autonomous Stakeholder workshops. Extensive Wide stakeholder participation in online surveys. Exclusive Limited but open stakeholder participation in the workshops.

It consisted of data gathering and combination of qualitative scenarios and quantitative modelling. Exclusive The project was conducted mainly by the research partners.

when there is a real difficulty with applying formal modelling approaches to the topic in question. 2 Such methods allow us to explore the structure of opinion

Similar conflicting forces will affect many smaller-scale FTA ACTIVITIES, in private organisations as well as in the policy sphere. 4 DEMATEL=decision making trial and evaluation laboratory, a structural modelling technique;

along with formal modelling of one sort or another, and less common techniques such as gaming,(Roughly Horton's subtask (iv).)

and indeed many specific methods involve cycles of data production and analysis, modelling, choice among alternatives,

and modelling they can determine to what extent each is interpreting given material in the same way,

Modelling and simulation using a wide variety of different approaches and methodologies (agent-based approaches, neural network-type approaches, fuzzy approaches, etc.

The different sorts of posit that are involved at the extremes of these poles are valued differently in various communities as is clear from the continued demand for more modelling

Serious FTA recognises that we can apply formal modelling to some features of the complex systems we encounter,

not only arise in the highly formal techniques of modelling. The influences of specific procedures (and the‘‘technical''choices made in implementing them) on the outcomes of creativity sessions

Cost-benefit analyses based on advanced modelling are standard procedures in many planning processes. In the meantime, it can be observed that more qualitative and discursive methods are stipulated by actors in the process or proposed by the project leaders.

But wide parts of the‘‘real world''cannot be included in modelling approaches; it is not possible to detect any effects in excluded areas.

is the case that quantitative modelling is used but leads to either controversial results or-from an ex post analysis perspective was proven to regularly provide obviously wrong results.

which the question of clarifying the assumptions of modelling still is a crucial issue: the planning of an underground railway station for the City of Stuttgart,

since the modelling had been based on VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 289 assumptions which they considered as being wrong.

because it was shown not in the results of ex ante modelling approaches. Again, this means that the cause-effects relations between infrastructure supply and traffic demand were obviously not fully understood,

important effects were reproduced not by the modelling. Also in this case, more open methods would have been needed to raise awareness for the uncertainties in the planning.

http://optic. toi. no van Asselt, M. B. A. and Rotmans, J. 2002),‘Uncertainty in integrated assessment modelling'',Climate change, Vol. 54, pp. 75

However, modelling tools should support the process and not drive it. In fact, the sophistication of many statistical and mathematical models is more apparent than real

Keywords Law, Future-oriented analysis, Foresight, Scenario planning, Modelling, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Research paper 1. Introduction Future and Law 1 are two words that are rarely found in the same phrase.

a modelling system with the ambitious plan of turning massive amounts of data into knowledge and technological progress.

reflected in its proposal to use modelling systems (along with its data mining procedures) to better enable

In effect, the use of modelling systems corresponds to one of the most recent trends in FTA.

Through the use of modelling techniques and simulation platforms like the one described above, the anticipation of the future is increasingly being carried out through the advanced tools that help process, search,

and the future consequences that a particular piece of legislation would address (preferably through the support of scenario planning and/or the use of modelling analysis). In order words,

This is the case of modelling systems, such as Futurict. VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 343 The application of modelling techniques to the legal domain represents a step further in the use of ICT, Artificial intelligence (AI) and other advanced

computer applications to this particular area. Up until now, the application of ICT to Law has enabled the development of new models for understanding

With the development of modelling techniques and instruments such as the one described above, the impact promises to be even greater.

such as modelling analysis and simulation platforms, brings additional advantages to Law. In effect, the systemic collaboration between different FTA METHODS, namely between quantitative and qualitative methods is becoming increasingly popular

scenario planning can be associated with modelling analysis to allow legislators to test different legal options and regulatory solutions within simulated environments.

I believe that the employment of modelling systems in political discussion and deliberation exercises should also be used in the preparatory phases of legislative procedures.

I propose the idea of attaching modelling systems and simulation platforms to parliamentary activities of lawmaking processes as another example of a FTA technique applied to Law.

I trust that Parliaments would benefit greatly from the use of modelling and simulation techniques aimed at uncovering future societal, economic and environmental trends.

Through the use of modelling instruments, legislators would not only be able to receive relevant information of future societal trends

Modelling techniques would allow legislators and decision makers to test the prospective impacts and consequences of a given change in legislation.

Modelling is, in this sense, a powerful instrument and an important source of information that should be used to improve legislative making processes.

Still within the field of lawmaking, modelling systems could be combined with other FTA METHODS, such as backcasting and future verification procedures.

lawmaking processes would greatly benefit from the use of modelling techniques and other FTA instruments based on ICT procedures.

reflecting on the application of fta tools and methods (such as Delphi surveys, scenario planning, backcasting and modelling techniques) to the legal sphere,

A concrete example of a combination between quantitative and qualitative methods in FTA, namely between scenario and modelling analysis, can be found in the so-called International Futures (IFS.‘‘

global modeling system which acts as a powerful tool for the exploration of the long-term future of closely interacting policy-related issues (including human development, social change and environmental sustainability).

and use some ideas from cultural historical theory to argue that modelling the directionality of the innovative élan requires analysis of progress at several time scales.

we describe and expand Robert Rosen's analysis of the nature of modelling and the relationships between natural and formal systems.

The modelling relation, as depicted by Rosen (1985,74), is shown in Figure 1. To create a formal model,

I. Tuomi Figure 1. Modelling relation according to Rosen. mathematical models that make predictive statements particularly efficient and allow,

Rosen clarified the modelling relation in considerable theoretical and conceptual RIGOUR. His description, however, leaves somewhat open the question howwe come up with the natural systems in the first place.

5 we can simply fill in the missing piece of Rosen's depiction of the modelling relation.

Ontological Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 745 Figure 2. Modelling in the context of the phenomenological veil. unpredictability,

making previously invisible aspects of the world visible and relevant for modelling. In such a situation

This creates a challenge for formal modelling. In practice, many future-oriented models are based on time-series data.

and innovative construction of new empirically relevant categories, not predictive modelling. An example here is the problem of formulating‘grand societal challenges'.

Uncertainty in integrated assessment modelling. Climatic Change 54, no. 1: 75 105. Varela, F. J.,E. Thompson,

and uncertainty 759 Direct observation of objective reality People's perceptions of objective Reality Artificial reconstruction of objective Reality Axiomatic Reason/logic/theorems Normative modelling

Descriptive modelling Logical positivist Empiricist Field studies Field experiments Structured interviewing Surveys Prototyping Physical modelling Laboratory experimentation Interpretive Action research Case studies Historical analysis

Delphi Intensive interviewing Expert panels Futures scenarios Conceptual modelling Hermeneutics Critical Theory Introspective reflection Critical systems thinking Rational Existential Natural Artificial Figure 1

or effective way to obtain information about the situation artificial reconstruction of object reality is attempted in almost all modelling

improves practices with conceptual modelling; helps to formulate policies and puts them into practice to influence situations in desirable directions.

often by using scenarios and conceptual modelling, that may include prioritising important areas of intervention,

However,‘naïve'the modelling processes used then may have seemed to some people at that time they were brave attempts to draw attention to the existence and nature of global situations.

Underlying convergence in the NBIC frame are matters relating to modelling and simulation which in turn means algorithm construction and computation.

Mathematical and Computer Modelling 30, no. 9: 179 92. Losada, M. 2001. The art of business coaching.

and climate modeling, labeled A b, and C, respectively in the figure. Some of these were anticipated by the CIS investment team in that the FY2005 calls (issued in March 2004) reflected an increased interest in informatics,

roadmapping comes quite close to system dynamic modelling techniques, yet roadmapping is still more of a technique for strategic focussing Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 826 T. Ahlqvist et al.

These include innovation system modelling, text mining of Science, Technology & Innovation(‘ST&I')information resources, trend analyses, actor analyses,

2. 3. Innovation system conceptual modelling A variety of approaches aim to capture the systemic processes by

We note several innovation system conceptual modelling efforts pertaining particularly to energy technology, given our case focus on solar cells.

Wenk and Kuehn (1977) advance TDS as a form of socio-technical system conceptual modelling to help identify the pivotal elements involved in innovation.

we favour TDS modelling to do this compactly and informatively. Stage 2, in contrast, is heavily empirical.

and modelling work on areas such as health. Table III List of thematic groups, drivers and trends identified Theme Drivers and trends Global governance and political economy Rise of the BRICS Global trade falters The emergence of new

Both Hamarat et al. 11 and Kwakkel and Pruit 12 apply an approach to forecasting that uses an ensemble of different models to explore a multiplicity of plausible futures (Exploratory Modelling

In this context they claim that Exploratory Modelling and Analysis (EMA) is a methodology for analysing dynamic and complex systems and supporting long-term decision-making under uncertainty through computational experiments.

Kwakkel and Pruit 12 present three applications of EMA, using different modelling approaches, in three different technical domains and related to three different grand challenges, grounded in a system perspective.

These modelling efforts are aimed at: i) understanding plausible dynamics for mineral and metal scarcity, ii) developing a hybrid model for airport performance calculations to underpin an adaptive strategic plan,

12 J. H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt, Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty, Technol.

The mapping identified only three quantitative methods (bibliometrics, modelling and simulation, trend extrapolation), highlighting that they were combined with literature review, scenarios and expert panels.

linking ecosystem change and human well-being by combining qualitative storyline development and quantitative modelling through several iterations between both parts 44.

especially the marrying of quantitative modelling and foresight seems to be unexplored rather. The idea that one can forecast

including PASHMINA (Paradigm Shifts Modelling and Innovative Approaches) and EFONET (Energy Foresight Network) and is rapporteur of the EC Working group Global Europe 2030 2050.

A research team from MIT 11 studied the development trends of power transmission technology and aero-engine technology by S-curve modelling.

but also monitoring and intelligence, matrices (analogies), modelling, and a hint of roadmapping. More importantly, we suggest that TLC would be complemented by informal

complex networks, simulation modeling of CAS and the search of vast databases. Such convergence has conducted to a rejuvenation and growth in FTA METHODS and practice,

some important modeling attempts were undertaken along with the last decades and I think that some of the above mentioned points are hindering the development of working computational algorithms to simulate technological evolution.

and that until now were considered not suitably in previous modeling attempts. It is presented below a short resume of these missing fundamental considerations:

Model-based decision support Deep uncertainty Adaptive policy-making Exploratory Modeling and Analysis 1. Introduction Conceptual, formal, and computational models are used commonly to support decision-making

Although testing parametric uncertainty is a standard practice in modeling, and the importance to present a spectrum of runs under very different hypotheses covering the range of their variation was recognized decades ago 14, p. 149,

but also relate to functional relations, model hypotheses and aspects, model structures, mental and formal models, worldviews, modeling paradigms, the effects of policies on modeled systems,

i e. in case of‘deep uncertainty',then traditional modeling and model-based policy-making tends to fail. Deep uncertainty pertains according to Lempert et al. 8 to those situations in

A possible quantitative approach for operationalizing the Adaptive Policy-making Framework is by using Exploratory Modeling and Analysis 36 38.

That is, EMA could be used to support an inclusive modeling process from the start, where different beliefs about how a system functions,

Exploratory Modeling, Real Options analysis and Policy design which is supported by The next Generation Infrastructures (NGI) Foundation.

the actor-options framework for modelling socio-technical systems, in: Policy analysis, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2010.6 P. Eykhoff, System Identification:

the first decade of global modelling, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, 1982.15 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber, Adaptive foresight:

Exploratory modeling and analysis: a promising method to deal with deep uncertainty, in: Technology policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2008, p. 285.37 E. Pruyt, J. Kwakkel, A bright future for system dynamics:

The 30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, St gallen, Switzerland, 2012.38 S. Bankes, Exploratory modeling for policy analysis, Oper.

Systems thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, Mcgraw-hill, 2000.52 G. Van Rossum, Python Reference manual, CWI, Amsterdam, 1995.53 Ventana Systems Inc.,Vensim Reference manual, Ventana

In his Phd research, he focuses on long term decision-making under deep uncertainty using the Exploratory Modeling and Analysis method.

Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty Jan H. Kwakkel, Erik Pruyt Faculty of technology, Policy,

Received 14 may 2011 Received in revised form 12 july 2012 Accepted 27 august 2012 Available online 29 october 2012 Exploratory Modeling

using different modeling approaches, in three different technical domains. In the first case, EMA is combined with System Dynamics (SD) to study plausible dynamics for mineral and metal scarcity.

Future-oriented technology analysis Exploratory Modeling and Analysis Deep uncertainty System dynamics Adaptive policymaking Agent-based modeling 1. Introduction Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is understood as an umbrella label for various approaches

The RAND Corporation developed a technique called Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA) tailored to this.

to method uncertainties (e g. different modeling methods) using computational models as scenario generators. This paper explores the potential of EMA for FTA.

Section 5 contains the conclusions. 2. Exploratory modeling and analysis Various scientific fields including the environmental sciences, transportation research, economics,

Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA) is a research methodology that uses computational experiments to analyze complex and uncertain systems 12,13.

The objective of the joint modeling endeavor was twofold:(i) to explore plausible dynamics of mineral/metal abundance/scarcity,

Both objectives were achieved at first by means of traditional System Dynamics modeling and manual exploration of the influence of key assumptions, changing one assumption at a time.

Emissions Emission Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS) the FAA required tool for emission analysis 41. Third party risk Methodology developed by the National Air Traffic Services (NATS) for third-party risk 42,43 the NATS methodology has been extended to apply to multiple runways 49,50.

These cases differed in the modeling paradigm that was used, in the application domain, and in the type of problem being investigated.

while in particular the first and third case demonstrate how this can be combined with nonlinear dynamic models (System Dynamics and Agent Based Modeling respectively),

and discussed have shown that EMA can be used to handle diverse types of uncertainties in combination with three quite distinct modeling approaches.

Prediction, Island Press, Washington, D c, 2000.12 S. Bankes, Exploratory modeling for policy analysis, Oper. Res. 4 (1993) 435 449.13 D. B. Agusdinata, Exploratory Modeling and Analysis:

A Promising Method to Deal with Deep uncertainty, in: Faculty of technology, Policy, and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2008.14 J. H. Miller, Active nonlinear tests (ANTS) of complex simulation models, Manag.

Systems thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, Mcgraw-hill, Boston, MA, 2000.26 E. Pruyt, C. Hamarat, The influenza A (H1n1) v pandemic:

Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System User's Manual, Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Environment and Energy, WASHINGTON DC, 2009.42 P. G. Cowell, R. Gerrard, D

How commensurable are different modes of modeling and other forms of dynamical representation? How can different communities of practice interact in an overall productive and interested way?

such as bibliometrics and modeling to qualitative and participatory tools such as focus groups and scenario building cf. 30.

the term‘future-oriented technology analysis'seeks to apply a wider collective identity around several strategic intelligence activities including technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, assessment and modelling but faces a reality where the community regards FTA as the name

such as Expert Panels, Interviews, Modelling and Literature reviews. The uncertainty avoidance dimension has several implications for national management and planning cultures.

evidence refers to reliable documentation, such as statistics and indicators or forecasting of economic development through macroeconomic modelling.

and the Hoshin Kanri 36 37 tools to support the acquisition, representation, modelling and maintenance of a firm's knowledge system.

roadmapping and target costing 39, business modeling and future studies. The outcome of the applied futures research methods is broadened substantially in projects with interdisciplinary character and a combination of knowledge and insight from various industries.

plans and evaluates new business modeling concepts Singular activity 2. 6 Business case analysis Provide revenue,

performance and conformance Projects 3. 4 Spearhead Research grants additional research funds to facilitate collaborative research activities in high-potential topics Projects 3. 5 Business modeling Supports

and deployment of business modeling concepts in yet underexplored business fields Project, singular activity 3. 6 Technology transfer program Increases the transfer activities from academia to business by detecting, stimulating

Activity Initiator role Strategist role Opponent role Scope 1. 1 Inspirational workshops (&) & Contract partners 1. 2 Business modeling

& (&)( &) Contract partners 2. 5 Business modeling & Contract partners 2. 6 Business case analysis

(organizations and end-users) 3. 3 Testbeds and simulation tools & Closed network 3. 4 Spearhead research & (&) Closed network 3. 5 Business modeling & (&) Open

Table 2 shows examples of modelling and horizon scanning. Horizon scanning is a rather new FTA tool,

curve modelling, leading indicators, envelope curves, long wave models Expert opinion Survey, Delphi, focus groups, participatory approaches Modelling and simulation Innovations systems descriptions

, complex adaptive systems modelling, chaotic regimes modelling, technology diffusion or substitution analyses, input output modelling, agent-based modelling Logical/causal analyses

and data of three governmental horizon Table 2. FTA scores for modelling and horizon scanning FTA score for modelling FTA score for horizon scanning Characteristic Score Comment Characteristic

Score Comment Future orientation***Future orientation***Participation*(*Consultation of experts for certain parameters**Validation of modelling output in a workshop***Validation through wide consultation Participation**(Depends on size of community involved

and Public policy February 2010 16 weak signals and wild cards that may be used to assees the robustness of results that may come from other forward-looking tools as planning, scenarios and quantitative modelling.

and detection (S&d) Treatment (Tr) Prevention of spread (Pos) Vaccine Animal tracking Diagnostic Ubiquitous computing Vaccine Drugs Modeling Figure 5. Contribution of technologies

and information was provided to this surveillance project especiaall with respect to the technological trends and policy recommendations of technologies in ubiquittou computing, modeling,

vaccines, diagnostics, ubiquitous computing, tracking, modeling and drugs. Each of these provides opportunities for technologiie to converge

and modeling of electromagneeti fields around base stations for mobile communications related to the health effects of the exposure to electromagneeti radiation.

like carbon footprinting Large scale modelling and simulation technologies enable system-level LCA and digital product processes Advanced modelling,

optimisation and artificial intelligence enable intelligent products and recycling solutions Modelling and simulation technologies required for LCA tools Wireless sensors Image processing technologies AMR hardware and software Mobile technologies Advanced identification and recognition technologies

for waste management and recycling Web 3. 0 in advanced identification and recognition technologies for waste management and recycling Data mining technologies 3d environments and

The modelling and simulation technologies required for LCA methods are also available. Wireless sensors as well as image processing technologies help in the object recognition needed for automatic waste recycling.

large-scale modelling and simulation technologies will enable system-level LCA, digital product processes, and a smart energy supply.

In the long term, advanced modelling, optimization and artificial intelligence methods will enable intelligent products, recycling and energy grid solutions.

Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 213 Step 5 Tentative modelling of emerging issues into possible emerging issues.

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