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but acutely aware of the danger of losing focus as the demands of dclientst place more and more complexity in the field of application. 2. Process management
and applications will lead to mass markets, niche markets or failure is scant. Based on this realisation, any approach to policy or business strategy based on the idea of early identification of winners must be subject to serious doubts.
These projects cover a range of different application areas like production systems, transport and mobility systems, regional innovation systems, information and communication technologies and energy technologies.
Such applications are well in line with early ideas on using real options for bridging the gap between strategic planning and investment 51.
the development in the field has been targeted towards less complex applications in the corporate sector (e g. exploitation of raw materials.
Only a fraction of the efforts have been spent on even more complex societal applications. One implication of this is the tendency to use forecasts i e. a predicate, rather than an explorative approach to future uncertainties.
Systems Approaches and Their Application: Examples from Sweden, Kluwer, Dordrecht, 2003.20 B. Schwarz, K c. Bowen,
Handbook of Systems analysis, Overview of Uses, Procedures, Applications, and Practice, Elsevier/John Wiley, New york, 1985.21 Y. Dror, Uncertainty, Coping with it and with political feasibility, in:
Methodologies and selected applications Knut Blind Regulation and Innovation Competence Center Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research, Germany Berlin University of Technology, Faculty Economics and Management
However, the use of time series of patent applications either differentiated by fields of technology, especially high technology,
Regulatory challenges in the sense of controlling dominant players can be detected by calculating concentration indices of patent applications.
& Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 related patent applications and in literature databases for articles addressing the various risk aspects.
Blind 25 shows, based on international and inter-sectoral cross-section data, that the output of formal standardisation bodies can be explained significantly by the patent applications as a reliable indicator for the dynamics in the respective technologies.
For Germany, he was even able to show in time series models that the dynamics in patent applications is reflected in the output of standardisation documents 21.
Conditions for methodology application: Science and technology indicators are easily available in publicly provided or commercially distributed databases.
Conditions for methodology application: Surveys are rather time-intensive, since they require the development of a questionnaire, the performance of a survey either via traditional postal mail or via online survey, the collection and cleaning of the data and finally, the analysis of the data.
Conditions for methodology application: Foresight methodologies including scenario, Delphi and even simulation approaches are rather costly
The application of the Delphi method to the issue of regulations and standards requires the development of questionnaires,
if rather specific commercial applications of new sciences and technologies already exist. For shaping regimes of intellectual property rights,
This paper discusses, based on a first round application in the field of micro and nanotechnologies for single cell analysis, the methodology of such a new approach.
and applications is necessary. Alignment is easier to achieve where the actors are known, their relationships functioning,
New s&t are defined not by eventual application but characterised by‘generic richness, 'by linking up with a number of different fields a number of new innovations are enabled 23.
these assessments are functioning if not always characterised by breadth of focus (a broader view of the field) and depth of vision (i e. possible applications in the long term.
There is general resistance against linearity towards applications imposed upon research: linearity contradicts the open-endedness
In the paper we report on the (ongoing) development and application of the‘multi-path mapping'(MPM) toolset.
because products/applications would need a high degree of coordination to enable integration of a large number of technology innovations into a platform
which itself could be tailored to various applications. In addition over the 15 years of research and development into lab-on-a-chip devices, larger industry has been reluctant to invest in stimulating
whether to go for a highly application specific product (one purpose only), a product that is somewhat more generic and would allow for a number of distinct yet still similar operations,
relegating developments of Loc to remaining in phase 2. The final large bubble represents the evolution of an integrated platform to a product application.
Application driven innovation chains would find that what we term integrated platform and product application being one-and-the-same.
However, the various possible prospective innovation chains include the notion of generic integrated platform which can be tailored for specific applications
With a multitude of projections of technology configurations and possible applications in circulation, and the lack of successful innovation chains meaning lab-on-a-chip remains at the research level,
Of particular interest is the proliferation of research and development of nanotechnologies for cell analysis the laboratory, the proliferation of expectation of applications for such cell-on-a-chip devices,
and application paths for chip-based cell analysis platforms (cf Fig. 3). The map indicates that actors can select between two distinct yet general clusters of technological paths within cell analysis:
and disadvantages in terms of application that need not be discussed here. Any cell analysis technique Fig. 3. Technological multi-path map for cell-on-a-chip (Bioreactor 57). 527 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp
There can be a number of technological paths towards one application area. This is because the labels(‘medical diagnostics';‘
what we show here as the possible future path/paradigm at the level of an application area (drug discovery) may also be called an innovation system.
Actors can and do link up with application areas such as those mapped in the top section of the Figure.
However, it is only the aggregate effect of actors linking up with visions of application,
which redefines an application area as a socio-technical path. In order to really change a paradigmatic path
2) applications;(3) possible integrated platforms;(4) possible paths; and (5) general time axis and stages of innovation chain.
The initiative is a programme focusing on aiding research foci in the link to applications.
Building off MPM-1, we conducted interviews based on perspectives and projections of the field of lab-on-a-chip for single cell applications.
but application focus for cell-on-a-chip will be niche market oriented. However, the large risk of little return-on-investment has stimulated another form of innovation chain initiated by MNCS shown in innovation chain 2. This shifts the risk to SMES which the MNC contracts for risky projects.
The degree of complexity of an integrated lab-on-a-chip platform would mean a clear application driver for the SME-consortium or the Fig. 4. 1) MNC (dark grey) in-house;(
and then began the search for an application, leading to more loss of confidence in such ventures by MNCS.
which can in themselves be turned into innovations. 23 This also a general issue in relation to the current situation of strategic science and application oriented research. 532 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting
If path creation at the level of application areas is the aggregate outcome of activities at actor levels,
then any of the innovation chains identified can create the matrix of entanglements constitutive of the new technology-application paradigm:
This start-up company is attempting innovation chain 4 (heterogeneous clusters) based on an application oriented innovation chain where users are involved already in the design process.
Stenger, Development and application of cell-based biosensors, Ann. Biomed. Eng. 27 (1999) 697 711.63 C. Wood, C. Williams
Netherlands on assessment of new and Emerging s&t, specializing in biomedical applications of micro and nanofluidics.
Methods and Applications, Cambridge university Press, United kingdom, 1994.23 O. E. Williamson, The economics of organisation: the transaction cost approach, American Journal of Sociology 87 (3)( 1981) 548 575.556 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008
The essence of Cunningham's model is that the application of hierarchical random graphs of technology characteristics to questions as complex as:
because they are concerned also with the application of novel and adapted FTA TOOLS and approaches. The excellent paper of Störmer et al.
and illustrates its potential virtues through an application to urban water management planning in a Swiss region.
An application to prospecting futures of the responsible development of nanotechnology, a research project exploring potential co-evolutions of nanotechnology and governance arrangements.
Priority areas for Australia's future features an excellent case example of the importance and learning being experienced from the application of novel FTA METHODOLOGIES to explore the possibilities offered by the use of nanotechnologies to contribute to new and improved approaches to energy conversion,
and content scoring remains a subjective process. 2. Application to distributed design environments Our purpose in exploring this topic is to better consider the information needs of designers.
D). In this technology analysis application these nodes represent four component technologies of a system. These four nodes may be connected in sixtyfoou possible networks,
This technique (and other techniques like it) may see application in open innovation, or the mode 2 of future knowledge production.
A New approach toweb Applications, 2005, Retrieved 15 may 2007, from http://www. adaptivepath. com/ideas/essays/archives/000385. php. 27 W3c (World wide web Consortium), Roadmap
the Regional infrastructure foresight method (RIF) and illustrates its potential virtues through an application to urban water management planning in a Swiss region (Kiesental.
Section 4 presents the results from the application of RIF in the Kiesental region in Switzerland.
The final section gives an outlook on further application domains for foresight and strategic planning in infrastructure sectors. 2. Breaking up path dependencies in strategic infrastructure planning 2. 1. Characteristics of infrastructure sectors Infrastructures represent a specific challenge to strategic planning methods.
In its applications it has contributed to the analysis of future development options of nations regions, sectors and companies mainly by focusing on perspectives associated with new technology development.
Furthermore, its standard case of application has been to direct and prioritize science, technology and innovation policy measures.
the later applications more explicitly address the co-evolution of technology and society 19. In line with this shift of attention, foresight was conceived mainly as an informing policy task until the 1970s,
Many applications focused on exploring broad ranges of possible future context conditions. Additionally, strategic options were assessed in relation to specific scenarios 21.
and its regional context 30.2) Other applications of scenario planning are framed as decision support instruments for the assessment of strategic options:
As a benchmark, we will briefly review typical applications in the field of transportation as this represents the most widely addressed empirical application case.
but also acted as process facilitators and moderators of the workshops and sessions in the empirical application cases.
we could considerably improve the range of critical context conditions 7. As experienced in our empirical application case,
However, we have strong indications that certain lessons learned within the RIF processes have a much wider application domain than urban water management.
concept, applications, and user guidelines, Syst. Pract. 2 (3)( 1989) 307 331.36 S. S. Gezelius, K. Refsgaard, Barriers to rational decision-making in environmental planning, Land use Policy 24 (2
an application of perspective-based scenario analysis using the analytic hierarchy process, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 70 (4)( 2003) 359 384.54 O. Renn, Participatory processes for designing environmental policies, Land use Policy 23 (1)( 2006) 34 43.55 B. Truffer, Wissensintegration
but the scope might still be vaguer than in risk assessment processes in industrial applications. IRRIIS and CES especially reveal the gap between the future-oriented analysis and the technological system stressed risk assessment processes.
Application Guide. Section 9: Risk analysis of Technological Systems, Geneva, Switzerland, 1995.21 Center for Chemical process Safety (CCPS), Guidelines for Hazard Evaluation Procedures, 2nd Ed. AICHE, New york, USA, 1992
Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP Studies) Application Guide, Geneva, Switzerlaand 2001.26 T. A. Kletz, Plant Design for Safety:
Theory, Methods and Applications, Taylor & francis Group, London, 2009, ISBN 978-0-415-48513-5. 29 J. Paasi, P. Valkokari, P. Maijala
and refining the conceptualization and application of futures research methods. For example, the Internet has made participatory approaches among geographically dispersed people practical.
This same implicit assumption is made in many other applications. There is a frontier here: since many forecasting problems can be investigated at various levels of aggregation,
the applications of information and communications technologies, and the outcomes of these investments as R&d productivity.
and communication technologies ecommerce 3. 2. 3. Application of new knowledge 3. 3. Innovative society 3. 3. 1. Understanding of knowledge
To work out the similarities in different application may be a first step to adapt the instruments and tools in other disciplines so that in the future even in technical and social science contexts,
But also the biological rhythms of the human beings (chronobiology) and new knowledge for different applications will be future topics.
A comparison of four scenario exercises related to global change applications suggests climate scenarios are used mostly to support further modeling and analysis,
can also be shown for scenario exercises related to global change applications 17. Process is an important factor,
but our review did not provide the space. 3. 4. Differences between public and private sector applications Much of the literature on scenario theory
and practice focuses on business applications. A number of studies thus examine potential differences between scenario exercises in the public and private sectors.
A comparison of five public sector scenario exercises addressing regional development concludes that there is little difference in the actual day-to-day work of developing scenarios between public and private sector applications 23.
However, in some public sector applications such probabilities may prove useful. In summarizing the arguments in the climate change community for
The literature does not report too many differences between public and private sector applications. But scenario practitioners often confirm that the heterogeneous nature of objectives
Many public sector applications may require a more systematic connection between scenarios and recommended decisions than do private sector applications.
Forthcoming efforts should include conducting empirical studies of the impacts of scenarios on organisational performance and their key drivers;
While probabilities may prove a hindrance in many business sector applications, others argue that the large,
The current paper discusses the application of the‘situation'cum CSH metaphor for the case of nanoscience,
and their applications to improve wealth creation and the quality of life a position supported politically throughout the ensuing 50 years.
The study context of application tends to affect citizens that have not been involved in the scientific justification of its propositions a key point already made with respect to Inclusive foresight.
An application to prospecting futures of the responsible development of nanotechnology Douglas K. R. Robinson STEPS, University of Twente, Enschede, The netherlands a r t i c l e i n
and technologies promise applications which may radically affect society. Nanotechnology is no exception, promising many benefits through nano-enabled applications across multiple sectors and with the potential of affecting many parts of our society.
At present, during its early stages, a wide variety of actors are anticipating both on the potential benefits and risks of the development of nanotechnologies and their embedment into markets and into society.
the governance landscape surrounding nanotechnology and the application areas it will affect, and how these may co-evolve with each other.
Retrospective studies of emerging technology applications/products (from disciplines of Management and Sociology of Innovation) reveal that the journeys twist
and the journeys that will be taken from idea to technical application well embedded in society. In the field of nanotechnology these challenges are compounded further due to the early stage of nano developments
But the potential breakthrough nature of nanotechnologies as enablers of radically new applications may mean a complex reconfiguration of the environments that a nanotechnology innovation may traverse during its‘lifetime'from concept to well embedded technology in our society.
and technological application whilst recent notions regard innovation as being nonlinear and recursive interactions between a variety of actors participating in the quest for innovation. 8. 5 These environments,
and their internalisation 3. 1. A project is initiated In Autumn 2007 (as still the case 2 years on) there was an increasing emphasis on societal impact and embedment of nanotechnology applications.
Emergence of platform technologies with applications in multiple sectors and comprising of ever increasing complexity of functional nano-elements (multifunctional tailored nanoparticles, highly integrated Lab on a chip, Moore than More integrating of semiconductors
This highlights another issue of where to locate responsibility for nanotechnology in applications, as nano is an enabling technology,
Regulators rely on current law (or modifications of them) for nanomaterials and applications. REACH13 is used but is identified as a blunt instrument by labour organisations as it fails to cover certain substances in very small quantities Differing positions between enactors and comparative selectors:
and other functional macromolecular systems) and the various applications/sectors (they have become embedded), and this befuddles GOS, NGOS, and Civil society.
In contrast diagnostics for crime prevention and other non-health related applications continue to flourish A fork:
a framework and an application to Lab on a chip technology for medical and pharmaceutical applications, Technol.
through methodology and application development and is about to be submitted at the time of publication of this article.
characterised by discipline-oriented basic science in universities, to a new form (Mode 2), characterised by problem-driven, application-oriented and trans-disciplinary research taking place partly outside universities
First, work on hydrogen technology was initiated, an area with application to research on fuel cells. Second, strategy activities concerning energy-efficient technologies and biofuels were launched by the Danish energy authority.
and strategy in national research councils and research programmes 929 Although there is a rich and growing application-oriented literature on foresight in science
For example, wordings like‘hypotheses about future applications'are understood easier than‘Delphi statement'.'Fourth, foresight exercises are understood often
applications Age-related biomedical Regenerative medicine in age-related diseases research Public health, including aspects of environmental health Translational biomedical research Downloaded
application potential of science and technology; Fast second mover: exploitation in the focus; Multi-centric excellence:
to pull factors in the area of socioeconomic demand or application potential on the demand side.
method application and organising. Notes 1. Foresight is a highly diverse activity which makes it difficult to give a comprehensive overview of different organisatioons networks,
Reflexivity and modesty in the application of complexity theory. In Interfaces between science and society, ed. A. Guimarães Pereira, S. Guedesvaz and S. Tognetti, 100 17.
SOFCS are suited well for applications such as power plants. Our QTIP setting presumes an organization with an established FTA framework.
our experience indicates that just providing the analytical tools to information professionals is unlikely to lead to effective FTA applications.
With another firm, we have been exploring text mining tool applications. We mutually recognized that certain preliminary analyses could be done in 3 minutes
as well as some domains of their potential application in industry and society. This notwithstanding, the panellists were encouraged explicitly to deliberate how they would construe the scope of their panels.
Materials) were linked to rapid advances in generic sciences and their application. Second, a deliberate decision was taken not to establish panels based on traditional industry clusters
what societal and industrial needs would be addressed by strengthening the focus area,(iii) what possibilities the focus areawould offer for the concrete application of related knowledge,
many of these methods have far wider application in futures work than in the domain of technology
finding new applications in aligning actors around societal challenges (as described by Ko nno la et al.)
The sectoral systems of innovation approach which is focussing on the characteristics of knowledge production has been complemented by analysis of the properties of application domains
Consequently, we include also the monitoring of patent applications (technometrics. Extending the application of search regimes in the realm of technology does neither create special difficulties concerning the third dimension, complementarity.
For technological research as for scientific research, complementarities will refer to the need a researcher faces to develop collaborations in order to produce results.
due to its early large-scale application, plant genomics is organised still largely according to the initial paradigm of genomics.
The cognitive proliferation that keeps blooming in the field of genomics is challenging some early applications of plant genomics research jeopardising thus their industrial applications.
and chaos theory in scientific as well as business applications turn up in abstract sets on a regular basis. Biotechnology and nanotechnology topics are continuing players in the abstract sets.
and the auto industry demonstrate new applications of continuous monitoring. Continuous monitoring, as a concept is not new of course thermostats use continuous monitoring to control the temperature of rooms.
and helped to shape the international understanding of the function of technology foresight as having a role in priority setting 2. It remains a key application for large Delphi exercises as witnessed by the recent Chinese survey 3. Foresight is used also to inform
Recent trends in research and innovation policy have opened new opportunities for the application of foresight. The emergence of coordinating instruments such as technology platforms is normally crystallised around a technology roadmap;
Available online 18 november 2010 A b s T R A c T The paper addresses the application of foresight to research and innovation policy and strategy.
It seeks to show an evolution away from a traditional focus on broad-based technological priority setting to a muchmore focussed and adapted set of applications.
Recent trends in research and innovation policy have opened new opportunities for the application of foresight. Systemic and demand-side policies require a shared vision on the part of purchasers and suppliers.
and demand sides, opening the possibility for the application of foresight approaches. We note the emergence of a combination of corrective, disruptive and creative roles. 2010 Elsevier Ltd.
of which involve some combination of systematic application of criteria with a voting or scoring process (raising of course the issue of who is empowered to vote
Foresight aligning actors in innovation policy Structural issues are also to the fore in an emerging important application of foresight
so it is not surprising to find that the more direct corporate applications are concerned largely with understanding the drivers of future markets.
and a disconnection between the development and application of new technologies and the societal and business issues which are wanted by the public and their political representatives.
Considering these issues there is a prima facie case for the application of foresight approaches on a substantial scale.
An emergent opportunity for the application of foresight is in demand-side innovation policy. This represents a reorientation of innovation policy
As an example of embedded foresight, Brummer et al. indicate three roles for such an application of foresight:(
The application of foresight approaches to these areas has been explored by Blind who focuses on approaches which identify future fields for regulatory action
methodologies and selected applications, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516.38 J. Edler, L. Georghiou, Public procurement and innovation resurrecting the demand side, Research policy
and expectations of the participants but can also ensure the relevant outcomes useful for further application in decision-making.
Project Outcomes Future perspectives Management Stakeholder engagement Nordic ICT Foresighta 17 Informative Evaluations of key ICT applications, Nordic scenario set in context of ICT development, scenario
Also identification of ICT applications with development potentials in Nordic region; future-oriented elaboration of factors affecting the Nordic business and development environment in ICT.
futures challenges, applications and priorities for developing the information society in the EU. Instrumental Outputs contributed to prepare the FP7 (Framework programme) ICT programme.
Consensual FISTERA identified priority application areas where investments in ICT research should be intensified in the future, motivated both by S&t developments and by socioeconomic needs.
FISTERA highlighted priority application areas where R&d investments should be intensified in the future, motivated both by S&t developments and by socioeconomic needs 23.
or at least with the decision-makers that the exercise is intended to inform the scope of knowledge management (KM) has to extend 1 The application of evolutionary theory within theology has led to notions of an‘‘evolving god''(or gods) too,
An alternative approach the application of evolutionary theories to human faith, spirituality and religion is not necessarily incompatible with this.
Practically any source of insight into the dynamics of science and technology (S&t) their production, communication, application can be utilised as knowledge inputs into FTA.
Indeed, each of the sets of tools just mentioned can be used in applications other than FTA in demographic forecasting,
These include issues that centrally involve the application of new knowledge as in the case of genomics (controversies over stem cells, use of genetic information, etc.;
The complexity of FTA PROCESSES means that they can involve application of similar techniques for different purposes, at different points in the foresight knowledge cycle.
We may expect to see various types of KM activity taking place during the application of specific techniques.
and studies focusing on the application of IT systems for KM, and those stressing more organisational and managerial issues and social learning.
for example, with more qualitative analysis required to explore possible factors shaping take off points, ceilings, novel applications of the technology that is diffusing, and so on.
A Fantasy of Love and Discord, Secker and Warburg, London, 1944.31 C. Warden, An application of some knowledge management concepts in foresight, Technology foresight for Organizers, 2007, Module 1:
Techniques and Applications, Addison-Wesley, Boston, 1975 (available at: http://www. is. njit. edu/pubs/delphibook/delphibook. pdf (accessed 29/07/09)).35 C. W. Choo, The Knowing Organization:
b Manchester Institute of Innovation research, United kingdom 1. Introduction The paper addresses Future-oriented technology analyses (FTA) in the context of the issues that ought to be considered for its application to support the quest for new forms of governance embracing governments, wider
Current FTA does not go beyond the application of certain methods which are rooted in technological forecasting
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