This application of the Internet represents a technological discontinuity for traditional telephone companies and provides an opportunity for small entrepreneurs to enter the telephone business with relatively little investment.
, Moral & Legal Issues 2. Science & Technology Science Culture & Discoveries Technology Progress Innovative, Transformative Applications & Products 3. Energy Current Energy Use
and more experienced contributors have with how fast changes can really appear from insight to application.
and not uncommonly in unexpected applications. Hence, some FTA outputs may enter the reservoir of knowledge where it may be drawn on at some time in the future.
In this scenario, several new applications of FTA have been identified 9. It is important to highlight that an effective Conference can provide a‘showcase'of the field,
and learn about the latest advances in and applications of FTA. This would suggest the need for continuing evolution of the format of the conference so as to engage policy-makers directly with issues in
to demonstrate the diversity of application fields in which FTA METHODS are being used and to offer a glimpse into possible consequences that grand challenges may imply for the development of FTA.
only a restricted number of papers could be included in this Special issue highlighting the broad diversity of FTA application fields in response to grand challenges.
and systemic transformations in a diversity of application fields responding to grand challenges. The presentations comprised themes surrounding creative futures, energy, governance, health, horizon scanning, innovation and sustainability, law, mobility, nanotechnology, and others.
In this context, this introductory paper provides an overview of selected FTA 2011 conference contributions and the diversity of application fields in
and later derives implications for the application of foresight in policy-making. The aim of the scenario task presented in the paper by Heinonen
the article explains the various benefits that the application of specific FTA methodological approaches (such as scenario planning,
To sum up, the articles in this special issue demonstrate a variety of FTA application fields and offer a glimpse onto possible consequences that grand challenges may imply for the development of FTA in the coming years.
The rapid progress in information and communication technologies enabled the application of sophisticated transport models.
for this paper we basically want to link theory to practical application. Therefore, a problem-oriented approach is required.
A positive example for a careful application and integration of results of different FTA METHODS is the development of the European commissions (Commission of the European communities, 2008)‘‘Action Plan for the deployment of Intelligent Transport Systems''(ITS.
Complexity science approaches to the application foresight Averil Horton Abstract Purpose This paper aims to present an exploration of recent work in complexity theory to explain why
Several new and practical implications for foresight techniques and their application are derived. Promoting variation is examined as one way to make policies more resilient in a complex system.
applications and case studies) have developed out of need (see www. andyhinesight. com/category/foresight-2/(accessed August 2011) re practitioner usage);
and later derive implications for the application of foresight in policy making. There are five relevant elements of complex systems:
considering these different definitions before looking in more detail at how complexity can contribute to improved foresight application.
impossible or ludicrous now. 3. Improving foresight application reframing One way to think of all of these ideas together is as different ways of seeing,
which implications for the application of complexity-based foresight in policy making will take place, at least for a while.
The key element for successful application of the method is the choice of expert group that produces the information.
and consisted of three consecutive elements as well as application of subsequent methods: the imaginary phase (futures wheel), systematic phase (futures table) and explanatory phase (drafting an array of scenarios for sustainable Finland 2050.
and applications should be analysed and removed. The extent of constructing scenarios in the government foresight report was defined as unique
Wilenius (2011) recommends the application of scenarios in the future as well, and proposes that the focus in developing foresight reports should be,
Concerning the application of foresight methodologies used in this kind of work the statements of evaluation are encouraging.
Techniques and Applications, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA. Linstone, H. A. and Turoff, M. 2011),‘Delphi:
By applying it to a particular application in nanotechnology, we will show that it is possible to trace the emerged irreversibilities.
nevertheless lead to significant future rigidities (in terms of technologies, applications and stakeholders). If one does not just await the outcomes,
basic research and research for market applications. Note that the levels are interrelated dynamic and. In addition, each level will have its own timescales:
We chose this application of nanotubes in electronic devices because it is as will become apparent a dynamic case among the (still) very few applications of nanotubes in electronic devices that also shows some commercial activity.
How are the technological developments from the scientific viewpoint taken up by society? How are the technological developments from the market viewpoint taken up by society?
and potentials of applications Articles in scientific journals Review articles that give an overview of the developments in the field Society Technological field (Research group Basic research Market Reports by NGO's Reports by government agencies Spokesperson statements
governments and research institutes already have high stakes in the future application. To illustrate, it is estimated that governments
After this general introduction of nanotechnology and nanotubes, we now turn to the application that will be the subject for the remainder of the paper.
A promising application of nanotubes is to use them as electromechanical8 components in nonvolatile memories. 9 Nonvolatile means that the data remains intact
controlled growth and applications of nanotubes. This also implicates that the variety of research topics has broadened.
, production capacity of single-walled carbon nanotubes) to applications and the production of the applications.
Q Such statements give rise to the belief that nanotubes have much to offer in terms of applications.
when we look at how broad the application areas for nanotubes are addressed generally: pharmaceuticals, electronic devices, material production, energy technologies, etc.
possible applications of nanotubes for electronic devices came out of the scientific community 21. Using the straight tubes as wires in chips was one of the first options.
it is clear that building these memories is one of the possible applications of nanotubes in electronic devices.
Q It is clear that two applications are highlighted for expected short-term commercial use flat panel displays and nonvolatile memories.
In this article they presented a proof of concept of the suspended SWNT crossbar and the architecture of the possible application.
Technological field None of the expected possible applications have come to a successful commercialisation yet. Therefore, basic research as well as efforts from the market side is focussed on realising the applications.
The difference here is that basic research generally is conducted for all options and possible (not foreseen at this time) other applications,
while the market side focuses (in general) on applications that are close to commercialisation. There are different topics that need
(or needed) solving in order to be able to realise the expected applications. It is possible that a solution for a particular problem for one application can also be a solution for another application.
An example is the problem that when nanotubes are grown, it is until now impossible to determine the electronic character (metallic or semiconductor) beforehand.
Therefore, after growing, you end up with a mixture of metallic and semiconductor nanotubes. This is a problem,
in order to get a working application. To specify this example further, Cees Dekker's group at Delft University, showed in 1998 31 that a single semiconductor nanotube could be turned into a transistor.
Scientists observe hurdles for further development of a promising application (guided by the expectations) and start to work on solving the problems at R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1105 hand.
The market then focuses on the possibilities nanotube applications promise to improve or revolutionise existing products.
Nanotubes in electronic devices The market focuses on a selection of promising electronic applications based on nanotubes.
The timescales on which these applications might become viable differs a lot. Society Technological field (Research group Market Basic research Fig. 7. Main findings located within the three-level framework.
and nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes (Fig. 8). We have shown that results of research groups directly give rise to expectations for promising applications and change the agendas for the future.
Accumulation of research results (for instance, straight growth and precise deposition of nanotubes) solves the hurdles that before hindered promising applications to become reality.
The scientific community (related to the application of nanotubes in electronic devices) changed in the sense that since 1993 more and more attention was drawn to nanotubes.
This led to the recognition of a specific set of promising applications (the same process happens at the market side,
Nanotubes as part of nanotechnology Societal discourse on nanotubes Nanotubes as part of nanotechnology Societal discourse on nanotubes Nanotubes in electronic devices Recognition of a specific set of promising applications Nanotubes
used in nonvolatile memories Nantero as a surviving central player in realising nanotube applications in nonvolatile memories Nanotubes used in nonvolatile memories Possibilities where opened up by scientific research results that took away hurdles in using nanotubes for electronic devices
Nanotubes in electronic devices More research groups work on similar problems related to nanotube applications Society Technological field (Research group Basic research Market Fig. 8. Emerging irreversibilities located within the three-level framework.
because the results shape the expectations about the most promising applications. Second, sentiments at the societal level might influence the possibilities for the electronic industry to develop technologies that might receive negative publicity.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1108 development of dusefult applications of technology, CTA
a practical application is presented to assess its utility and feasibility. The chosen example is based on a scenario design exercise, in
The application of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) to law: the cases of legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement Norberto Nuno Gomes de Andrade Abstract Purpose This paper seeks to propose the application of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) to law.
As law traditionally reacts after events and is resistant to change and transformation, the article argues for equipping legal activities with a set of tools,
the article explains the various benefits that the application of specific FTA methodological approaches (such as scenario planning,
It proposes the application of future-oriented analysis (FTA) as a common umbrella term that encompasses foresight, forecasting and technology assessmentmethods and tools to the legal sphere.
It proposes the application of future-oriented analysis (FTA) as a common umbrella term that encompasses foresight
This application, however has provided not direct and concrete results. The application of fta to Law has been mediated heavily
In the following sections, a series of initiatives (existing and/or prospective) regarding the application and use of specific FTA TOOLS and approaches In law, namely to legal research,
This innovative application of the Delphi method to Law resulted in an impressive collection of themes and visions, encompassing topics as diverse as the future of international law, national constitutional orders and private law,
such as the European-funded projects SWAMI 11 and FIDIS 12, their application has been limited, sporadic and largely descriptive.
as it opens the doors to the application of other FTA TOOLS to legal research, combining qualitative with quantitative methods 14.3.3 Legislative drafting 3. 3. 1 Futurict.
Futurict and the wide spectrum of ICT improvements and applications that this project encompasses constitute a good example of the new generation of methodological developments that is shaping FTA.
In brief, Compstat is a crime-mapping software application that highlights areas where criminal activities have occurred,
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 343 The application of modelling techniques to the legal domain represents a step further in the use of ICT, Artificial intelligence (AI) and other advanced
computer applications to this particular area. Up until now, the application of ICT to Law has enabled the development of new models for understanding
and working with legal systems (through, for instance, knowledge based systems and intelligent information retrieval. With the development of modelling techniques and instruments such as the one described above,
In effect, the application of this particular ICT-based FTA instrument to Law will enable the development of innovative models for researchers,
and simulate the application of hypothetical laws, assessing the impact of different regulatory options. Modelling techniques would allow legislators
The application of this set of FTA instruments would not only contribute to the process of evaluating the impact of specific laws in society,
the application of foresight methods and tools to Law should be as scientifically-sound as possible.
‘‘t he studies for the STOA panel of the European parliament have served to pinpoint critical aspects of technologies and their application
methodologies and selected applications'',paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville.
widely distributed (some would say decentralised) technologies where the impacts arise rather from a single component itself but from the large number of components and their widespread application,
and to trigger wider applications in a number of industries. Enabling technologies often have no direct easily recognisable connection with applications
which makes it difficult to even determine relevant impact categories. Therefore it is necessary to perform intermediate analysis steps to connect these technologies to applications or visions for their integration in application technologies or products.
Together with the new kinds of technologies to be assessed, the role of governments or politics as important players in the innovation process has changed.
Nanotechnology comprises a wide range of approaches that are quite heterogeneous with regard to their subjects of investigation, possible applications and imaginable periods of realisation.
Many of the developments called dnanotechnologyt are scientific findings and curiosities rather than R&d results close to a technological application.
which application they could be used. Very often, it is still unknown, if and how they can be developed further into usable components
The segment of dnanotechnologyt that is closest to a widespread application is the field of dnanomaterialst.
Rather than the nanomaterials themselves, their use in new products and processes and their application in existing or new contexts,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1116 The term droadmapt is used widely, starting from graphical representations of technology development paths and their application environments up to detailed and ambitious
and/or technology. 4. 2. Roadmapping as a precursor of a TA process for specific nanotechnology applications The situation described above rather broad and largely unstructured field of investigation, mostly enabling technologies at early stages of development,
There is a growing need to connect current nanotechnology research activities with visions of applications as well as to structure this field of investigation.
or distinctions and often using varying terminology the following basic elements (1) definition of task and system (2) analysis of technology, their applications and framework (3) impact assessment (4) evaluation and development
Its central goal is to obtain a well-structured connection between R&d activities in this field and potential fields of application and ideas for products.
and technology roadmapping to include it as a precursor into the TA process for selected applications of nanotechnology.
and follow more or less classical trajectories of roadmap development and application which cannot be discussed here in any more detail.
Especially this exercise is expected to deliver more knowledgeable and thus reliable perspectives about the interdependences between scientific and technological developments, internal and external challenges and products or applications than many other approaches.
and visionary applications thought up by proponents (and sometimes propagandists) of nanotechnology, about the realism and the realisation periods of these concepts as well as about the potential of competing conventional technologies.
However, some of the ideas for products or visions for applications raise also considerable questions with respect to their nontechnical implications.
either form existing products or to new ideas for application. This will be complemented by a more conventional,
application-driven approach where we will be trying to seek and assess alternative (and hopefully better) pathways for one or two yet-to-be selected products
We propose an adaptation of the concept of science roadmapping and its application to selected segments of the overall field of nanotechnology.
and applications and supporting more reliable judgements on the realism of or hurdles for innovations discussed.
others think that the application of planning tools to topics of basic research might confine creativity
and contextual attributes that affect the prospects for effective applications, drawing on the practical combination of empirical and expert knowledge.
Yet, in his patent application from 1876, Bell tells us what the telephone is about: By these instruments two or more telegraphic signals or messages may be sent simultaneously over the same circuit without interfering with one another.
None of these feature overtly in the evolution of FTA where every application makes assumptions about the underlying validity of the processes used.
It has a range of applications and is used with different methods, for different objectives and in different settings.
Brown and Michael (2003) describe the phenomenon of the trough of uncertainty in the study of clinical applications of biotechnology:
and have other options in case the applications will disappoint. This also raises questions about the epistemological status of claims about the future.
New applications and consumption opportunities have become ever more widespread Internet, digital camera and camera phones, pay-TV, sport events, home cinema and film (video) on demand, game consoles,
IT used to build applications centred on processes rather than on functions, synchronised with the strategy-Flexible infrastructure basis to enable communication
With the Sandia-specific and additional DOE data, this set consisted of 5112 records. 3. 2. Similarity calculation LSA is a technique based on the vector space model that has found recent application in information retrieval.
The conceptual overlap between EP and MST has increased significantly in the past 2 years, especially in the area of integration for product application.
For instance, a portion of the EP portfolio dealing with microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) technology has shifted from component integration to applications.
but related applications outside of Sandia's original intended use, or to suggest potential collaborative opportunities between laboratories. 5. Future directions This is the first year that we have applied such analyses to our LDRD process.
Insights gained from the novel application of visualization tools, coupled with the tacit knowledge that comes from years of personal experience as experts in a technical field,
and connecting research-based theoretical knowledge with practical knowledge through applications. We explore the questions of systemic transformations in the context of Finnish RTO, namely VTT Technical research Centre of Finland,
such as separate technologies, applications, and solutions Social/actor Covers issues that are primarily dependent on relations between different actors inside
and focussed on future possibillitie by emphasising ICT applications. It was aimed to build capacities for the renewal of VTT's technological basis by stressing the development of a more service-oriented approach.
especially through ICT applications Capacities for the renewal of technological basis internally at VTT Technology visions were built,
for example, through the application of life cycle analysis. The second aspect was to open the field towards more efficient use of ICTS in the processes, such as solutions for distance-based monitoring, the use of building information models,
The systemic orientation was visible in the‘Russian doll'style of layered project structuure the project operated simultaneously on the layer of separate ICT applications, on the layer of ICT adoption in four fields (the experience
and to produce a set of socio-technical ICT application visions. The fourth phase, the roadmapping workshop, created roadmaps on selected socio-technical visions.
for example, in the form of application visions and exploratory socio-technical roadmaps. The knowledge spaces of the project are summarised in Table 6. Nordic ICT Foresight operated primarily in the strategy space.
and compare the implications of the ICT applications in four Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden).
It aspired to understand what the notion of‘Nordicness'would signify in the context of ICT applications.
Knowledge Key systemic capacities space Description associated with the space Forms of project knowledge Strategy Assessing the implications of the ICT applications in four Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway,
of the‘Nordicness'in the context of ICT applications Building structural openness for a Nordic region in the context of ICT adoption Building a systematic set of actions in the medium and long term and in the context of the four scenarios
abilities at Nordic regional level Construction of implementation strategies Visionary Building long-term visionary glimpses to the futures of ICT applications and adoption of ICT in Nordic region Aimed at systemic
plausible, disruptive, alternative, unlikely Assessing the explorative application visions in the context of four scenarios Creation of scenario-based visionary socio-technical roadmaps on several application visions
It built long-term visionary glimpses of the adoption of ICT applications on the scale of the Nordic region.
The Nordic ICT Foresight aimed to foster the visionary notions of‘Nordic innovation culture'and‘common strategy region'in the context of ICT applications.
Futures of the ICT environment and applications on the Nordic level. Helsinki: VTT Publications, Edita Prima Oy.
Futures of the ICT environment and applications on the Nordic level. Summary report. Publication of Nordic Innovation Centre.
Concept, development and application. Technovation 26, no. 3: 336 44. Phaal, R, . and G. Muller. 2009.
This paper explores the systematisation of the‘Forecasstin Innovation Pathways'analytical approach through the application oftech Mining.
and potential applications. We present results pertaining to the development of dye-sensitised solar cells. Keywords:
dye-sensitised solar cells, technology intelligence 1. Introduction New and Emerging science and Technologies(‘NESTS')are studied increasingly because of their potentially important‘emerging applications'.
This paper explores the systematisation of the FIP analytical approach through the application of Tech Mining.
sharing progress on our efforts to devise algorithms to help extract key technology components, significant actors, and potential applications.*
It explores the promise of this approach through its application to two illustrative innovation situations:
This paper illustrates application of the FIP approach for a further case, that of nanotechnology-enhanced solar cells(‘NESCS'.
and to compile mentions of possible applications and developmental or impact issues. We also identify active organisations
We seek to contribute to the development of analytical tools to relate early-stage scientific advances to long-term implications (i e. potential applications.
Ezra (1975) offered a TDS to help explain why solar energy innovation in residential housing applications was not notably successful.
The elements that appear in a TDS depiction change from application to application. For instance, Shi, Porter,
which a potential application is being promoted). 3. Framework and data 3. 1. Framework The FIP framework includes four stages,
and distinguishes vital issues affecting potential commercial or other applications. In particular, we have set‘Step J'engage experts alongside to call attention to the desirability of ongoing involvement of various knowledgeable persons.
We seek innovation indicators (i e. empirical measures to gauge technological maturation and prospects for successful applications.
We also seek to determine how technological characteristics link to functional advantages, applications, and potential users (Step E). Figure 1. Framework for forecasting NEST innovation pathways.
This is meant to be a creative endeavour to identify potential applications and draw up different ways of attaining these.
3. 2. The case of DSSCS Nanotechnology entails engineering matter at molecular scale, seeking novel applications of new materials and devices.
eliciting information on stakeholders and potential applications from text mining (Steps D and E; and consolidating empirical
and among organisations. 4. 4. Determine potential applications (Step E) We introduced a new technique called‘cross-charting'to explore the links from technological attributes (e g. particular nanomaterials or nanostructures and particular technical advances) to functional
advantages that these offer to potential applications, in particular markets; that is, cross-charting can suggest ways that particular technologies might link to potential applications.
The content of a given cross-chart will vary depending on one's interests. For DSSCS, we began by generating an overall cross-chart,
and applications or would be generally advantageous instead. Figure 5 presents a follow-on cross-chart to illustrate focus on a particular target market glass-walled building structures (especially greenhouses.
The idea is that this helps focus monitoring efforts to seek out advances that could facilitate our desired application.
and solar cell types that offer less potential gain for our target application. The cross-chart could spawn related probes.
tracking materials to technology to functions to applications. engaging with those knowledgeable about the technology through the process of further specifying the set of important, and distinctive, functions;
exploring which functions pertain to particular applications (in some cases requiring partitioniin functions and/or application sets;
and considering links between applications and commercial opportunities (users, sectors, etc..4. 5. Lay out alternative innovation pathway (Step F,
Laying out possible development pathways can help figure out which point towards more special applications (higher price) or niche markets.
The silicon lead could prove tough competition for those pursuing DSSC applications (much as the immense silicon infrastructure has become the dominant semiconductor platform).
but a full map would show critical issues that would need to be handled for particular application targets.
and applications. 5. Discussion and future prospects We have worked at FIP for several NESTS, including nanobiosensors (Huang et al. 2010), deep brain stimulation (Robinson et al. 2011),
particularly focusing on how to forecast the likely innovation pathways for emerging nano-related technologies and applications.
New problem-solving applications for engineers and manufacturing professionals. Boca raton, FL: CRC Press. Robinson, D. K. R.,L. Huang, Y. Guo,
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