Pattern

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Pattern (174)

Synopsis: Pattern: Pattern:

real options display much more complex patterns of interrelation than do financial instruments. 12 This has to be considered in a successful AP framework. 2. 2. 4. Commitment vs. opportunism A final problemarea

This pattern supports again our conceptual model by highlighting that terminology and measurement and testing standards are especially relevant for the organisations focusing on basic research,

This general pattern is confirmed by the results of the Seventh Japanese Delphi Report 48, not only in the field information,

A promising approach however is building mapping tools based on underlying patterns and indicators of the dynamics of emergence.

'and‘patterns'for finding solutions to selected technological problems, based on selected principles derived from natural sciences and on selected material technology().

Using patterns and regularities in technology dynamics, in: R. Williams, K. H. Sorensen (Eds. Shaping technology, Guiding Policy:

The relevant hypotheses to test do not follow the usual pattern of asking whether and to what degree objectives have been met

new drivers like lifestyles or developments in society change the time and space patterns of living and working.

Paths and other stable patterns enabling and constraining actions and views, will shape further development. Thus, they span up an endogenous future.

Further developments are predicated on the pattern of the present situation. Not in a deterministic way: there are always choices and contingencies.

of evolving patterns, of dynamics extending into the future, including irreversibilities that arise. This is the task of scenario builder.

Emerging paths and patterns that shape (enable and constrain) the future are particularly visible in the coupled evolution of research,

We can see the importance of new actors in the shaping of emerging governance patterns and industry structure, of NGOS such as the ETC-Group,

Here they show that the patterns that were becoming stabilized by 2007 (identified through exploring endogenous futures) continue to shape development

and outcomes shaped by earlier patterns (endogenous futures), and in terms of encompassing variation and contingencies. The scenarios also worked well in terms of stimulating productive discussion in the workshop.

to enable those who do not have a propensity towards elaborate anticipation to observe patterns,

using patterns and regularities in technology dynamics, in: K. H. Sørensen, R. Williams (Eds. Shaping technology, Guiding Policy:

with new employment patterns and with the need to further upgrade research and innovation performance. In 2006 it was decided

Between 2006 and 2008 hewas leading a research programme on regional innovation patterns and policy in cooperation with the City of Vienna.

It can uncover patterns that reflect competitor strategies 9. It can also enable researchers and R&d managers to gain a global perspective on entire bodies of research.

and elucidation of relationships based on text co-occurrence patterns can extend QTIP possibilities. Development of information visualizations especially for S&t offers great potential 12

growth rate, pattern of growth and (technical, cognitive or institutional) complementarities. In the fourth section the central proposition of the paper is presented:

programming and performing is driven partly by the content and the dynamics of research activities and by the innovation patterns and interactions of different thematic fields or sectors(‘‘Knowledge dynamics''.

thus a second key property central for considering the differences in productive patterns. Complementarity. One knows the relevance of facilities and equipments(‘Big science'

In the first place the bipolar dimension of convergence/divergence should be substituted by a notion of pattern of growth that encompasses additional archetypes of transformations of‘‘bodies of knowledge''merging, death, birth...

%‘‘all plants''(80%)publications. 12 Pattern of growth: Plant genomics is a well-defined cluster in the post human genome project scientific landscape.

Growth network dimension Growth pattern relative position of clusters within the network Complementarities-relations within the network Cognitive Technical Institutional Journals network Number of journals Citations

Pattern of growth: Growth in the field of N&n is considered as a divergent dynamics, which has also been deemed as displaying proliferation traits:

the pattern of proliferating growth and more precisely the paradigmatic shift away from the one-gene-one-function approach offers an opportunity for modifying stakeholders'alignment of interest for tackling persistent social concerns.

Towards a Theory of innovation and Interactive learning, Pinter, London, 2009.11 F. Malerba, L. Orsenigo, Technological regimes and sectoral patterns of innovative activities, Industrial and Corporate Change 6 (1

. Geels, Processes and patterns in transitions and system innovations: refining the co-evolutionary multilevel perspective, Technological forecasting and Social Change 72 (6)( 2005) 681 696.14 R. R. Nelson, S g. Winter, In search of a useful theory of innovation

patterns of moral argumentation about new and emerging science and technology, Nanoethics 1 (1)( 2007) 3 20.

and pattern-recognition abilities to identify early signals of change, discontinuities, inflection points, and disruptive forces in the business environment.

Scanning depends heavily on human cognition and pattern-recognition capabilities. As Ray Kurzweil points out in his The Age of Spiritual Machines 3

the bulk of human neural circuitry excels at pattern-recognition functions. The human brain cannot approach the speed at which computers process digital computations serially

the brain's massively parallel architecture can employ thousands of neurons at once in pattern-recognition tasks.

Human evolution has designed us to excel at recognizing patterns, interconnections, and synergies among massive amounts of data and inputs.

and systematically apply the pattern-recognition capabilities of up to 30 professionals to the task of identifying important potential changes in the business environment.

and systematically marshal the pattern-recognition capabilities of a group of professionals to identify important changes in the business environment

Developing an intuitive appreciation for unusual patterns and learning to distinguish between truly innovative developments

Fig. 2 demonstrates this type of overlay or conceptual pattern. Three abstracts from different areas air-quality assessment, health care,

Senior managers must understand their role (refraining from normal decision-making, judgmental behavior patterns), and junior staff must feel comfortable in expressing themselves.!

We were interested more in the distribution of responses than individual response patterns. For this purpose, looking at the survey results we suggested a STEEP (Social-Cultural, Science & Technology, Energy, Ecology and Economy,

This allowed us to see the general patterns of preferences while still capturing the respondents'narratives.

factors and patterns that are pervasively causing change in society generally. The speed of change may be deemed comparatively slow

and interpret the likely pattern of change''in the future (3 p. xiii). O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 293 Potential trends Possible new trends grow from innovations, projects,

and change patterns evolve differently. It has been said (by some practiced Foresight facilitators) that drivers are those critical choices,

as long as they are evaluated in the context of both their emergence and their evolution as a part of a pattern along with other weak signals.

Qualitative review of Foresight (content) insights and patterns; 3. 1. 3. Further analysis Analysis of each of the Domains of Interest according to%distribution by years of experience, country of residence, affiliation;

Analysis of assessed impact, likelihood, controversy, time horizon patterns; Comparison of FTA COMMUNITY insights-domains content with others sources of Foresight trends, drivers, etc.

fuel cells and nuclear) Shift in travel patterns due to energy prices and ICT alternatives Solar energy meets grid parity Ecology Economy 82 Increased frequency of economic crises

Similar to the patterns observed regarding trends no significant differences were encountered regarding the impact assessment based on Foresight affiliation.

and hoarding alters social patterns Decline of motivation in the youth cohort of industrialised and aging societies Ethics in capitalism under scrutiny Growing tribalism around national,

and puts extreme stress on infrastructure Economic measures to meet international environmental commitments Growing localisation in response to supply chain vulnerability Foreign affairs fail to be harmonised to cope with global issues Patterns

and shocks (or possibly showing a respondent fatigue pattern) suggests that it may be important to analyse the patterns of individual responses to see how they differentiate among the key factors and whether any of the sorting base descriptions (i e. age, affiliation,

There may be some surprises or patterns or just: sowhat! So wait for the next iteration in 2010.

what we can observe today as modern travel patterns. But it is well known that transport is derived a demand.

Effects of market penetration of electric vehicles on travel patterns (e g. on modal split. Consequences of global warming on economic growth Effects of speed limits on emissions and number of accidents Health problems caused by noise

At the more or less blurred borderlines, other systems (energy system, land-use patterns and economic system) are attached and interact.

and most theories of social change have implied an underlying pattern, although we are not always aware of it.

Other methods include observing patterns, relationships, and rhythms rather than events (a specific example of focusing on interactions rather than constituent parts of a system), promoting effective neighbourhoods, building networks of reciprocal interaction,

As today's conditions and thinking patterns often narrow possible solutions and prevent change, backcasting aims to liberate images of the future from today's mental fixations and dominating trends.

Emerging irreversibilities denote the first socio-cognitive patterns that decrease the fluidity and openness, and that, eventually constrain

we need insight into the emerging patterns and mechanisms. We will discuss the phenomena and develop a method for tracing them empirically (Section 2);

the concept of demerging irreversibilitiest helps to locate the first signs of new socio-cognitive patterns that will constrain

Using patterns and regularities in technology dynamics, in: K. H. Sørensen, R. Williams (Eds. Shaping technology, Guiding Policy:

and seemed to show the impossibility of predicting urban phenomena based on scientific rules and regular patterns.

Socio-demographic, economic and technological changes were taking place at a fast speed with nonlinear patterns

In this pattern, there is a reorganisation of spare economic resources towards nonprofit and Third Sector activities.

This goal may be achieved by analysing the in depth implications of each future scenario for functional systems, parametric indicators and spatial patterns. 4. 2 Step 2:

In this scenario, the governance model is managed by a strong centralised power base (probably the State) that makes major decisions regarding the pattern of urban development to be implemented by regional and local authorities.

Meadows, 1998) is established to assess the potential impact of each future scenario on urban development patterns (see Table I). A base-line scenario (2010) is estimated,

Future spatial patterns are visualized through the location and extension of urban areas, transport infrastructures and open spaces in a small territory located in the northwestern periphery of the Madrid metropolitan area.

Urban design will incorporate criteria to achieve a more energy efficient development pattern. Regarding the transport system,

B Modify mobility patterns by incorporating technological and energy innovations. B Modernize public administration so that it can implement an advanced, transparent governance model.

interpreting patterns of data to better deploy police resources. Constrained to do more with less, predictive policing marks a paradigm shift in fighting crime,

and from the change in economic and societal patterns initiated by the almost ubiquitous usage of these technologies.

'when we assume an industrial age model of factory-based production, industrial era life patterns and health services,

appreciated (behavioural pattern and numeracy) and learned about through imaginative assessment of substantive knowledge of

movement would follow a pattern of‘small'steps at relatively low Richter scales, well below 9 that actually occurred (generally a stiction pattern event).

The Pacific plate moves at a rate of 8 9 cm per year dipping under Honshu's underlying plate:

Personal behavioural patterns (Loveridge 1977) will influence the information sought, including data before its transformation and its integration, via learning, appreciation and anticipation, into a systemic outcome.

these are all matters related to an individual's behavioural pattern. The literature relating to the methods used in FTA will not be reviewed

which are influenced by the individual's behavioural pattern. In contrast at the existential pole, knowledge is more inductive, less structured, typically subjective,

The individual's behavioural pattern creates three categories: object reality, people's perceptions of object reality and artificial reconstruction of object reality.

All will then depend on who created the algorithms and their behavioural patterns (Loveridge 1977) whether human or machine.

A familiar pattern here is the hype cycle, as introduced and used by the Gartner Advisory Group (Borup et al. 2006).

Antagonistic patterns and new technologies. In Getting new technologies together, ed. C. Disco and B. J. R. Van der meulen, 285 306.

A scenario building process was carried out with a special focus on changing mobility patterns in urban lifestyles,

A specific initiative the‘Probes Program'has been established recently as a long-run (10-year time horizon) research project intended to present‘provocations'about new lifestyle patterns,

which is suited particularly to looking for patterns and trends in large data sets. The second type is a link analysis map,

and potential future directions. 4. 2. Link analysis of IAS The analyses of the visualizations in Section 4. 1 tend to strongly convey the patterns

and new ideas based on the information and patterns seen there. Fig. 6 shows the overall scatterplot comprising investment in LDRD by all of the U s. DOE's laboratories.

and national policy-makers as they formulate infrastructures to encourage innovation. 2. Background 2. 1. Tech Mining and FTAS Bibliometrics counting activity levels and identifying patterns in R&d bibliographic records,

and requirements of stakeholders and research areas there are recurring patterns in the context of research policy making that can be structured in a seven-step framework shown in Figure 1 and described in the following sections. 4. 1 Step 1:

which is used widely in pattern recognition, to measure the technology life cycle stage of the selected technology.

Clearly, different types of technologies may have different developing patterns, especially for those technologies close to basic science, such as biotechnology,

Schirrmeister and Warnke 14 contribute towards building foresight capacities for systemic and structural transformations by sharing their experience on a project that explores future innovation patterns.

The project results also underlined the need for different types of innovation policy instruments to deal with newly emerging innovation patterns rather than just different priorities.

which is used widely in pattern recognition to measure the technology life cycle stage of the object technology.

Herein, one anticipates growth in an emerging technology based on the pattern of growth observed in a somewhat related technology.

The stronger that relationship, the more likely the pattern will pertain. Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 Corresponding author at:

which is used widely in pattern recognition, in order to measure the technology's life cycle stages. The research framework is designed as follows (Fig. 2). 2. 1. Indicators

Trends of other indicators also show different patterns. In the emerging and growth stages, indicators 1, 2, 4, 5, 9, 10,11, 12,

NN is used widely in pattern recognition, machine learning, and computer vision. It has been shown that NN has consistently high performance.

which is used commonly in pattern recognition and some other fields, to process the 13-D data by calculating the nearest distance among the test point

Different types of technologies may have different developing patterns, especially for those technologies close to basic science, such as biotechnology.

and technology and he mainly focuses on Pattern Recognition, Neurocomputing et al. He is the author of more than 20 articles.

The behavior over time can be understood as being a concatenation of atomic behavior patterns 30.

By combining atomic behavior patterns with the sign of the first order derivate, six different behaviors are possible (i e. positive logarithmic, negative logarithmic, positive exponential, negative exponential, positive

Each time series can then be converted into a concatenation of these six patterns. Clustering then takes place on the basis of the concatenations.

In the case, we investigated the transition patterns that could occur and which combinations of uncertainties resulted in which transition pattern.

The case thus showed how complex and highly uncertain phenomena such as transitions, can still be treated despite the presence of uncertainties.

or the tree can be used to understand which type of behavior pattern emerges under which combination of uncertainties.

Clustering of time series data a survey, Pattern Recog. 38 (2005) 1857 1874.35 J. H. Kwakkel, W. E. Walker, V. A w. J. Marchau

patterns and effects in comparative perspective, J. Comp. Policy Anal. Res. Pract. 3 (2001) 311 337.15 OECD, Fostering innovation to address social challenges, in:

Experiences from a foresight project exploring future innovation patterns (www. innovation-futures. org) are discussed. Four specific features were applied

Vision Structural transformation Inductive approach Foresight methodology Innovation pattern Visualisation Scenarios Weak signals 1. Introduction Envisioning structural transformation in foresight exercises is challenging.

Sustainability researchers are emphasising that optimisation of current patterns of production and consumption is not sufficient to achieve the order of magnitude in reduction of ecological footprint required to preserve the earth's eco-sphere.

as commonly practiced, tend to exclude such patterns as inconsistent 19. When the micro level is added in the fleshing out phase of the scenario building,

and continuous reopening of interpretation patterns. In the first phase, by scanning weak signals 22, all sorts of observations of striking innovation practiceswere collected in a loose and open manner.

which aimed at finding phenomena that stand out fromestablished innovation patterns, the project team agreed on a list of sources,

Instead, a thorough review of academic literature on new innovation patterns was carried out 16. A total of 63 weak signals were identified,

Each cluster pointed towards a specific change in innovation patterns, derived from diverse signals of change from various sources of information.

The resulting visions were discussed with innovation experts with different perspectives on innovation patterns through interviews and an online survey.

Accordingly, a structured assessment of very different aspects of changing innovation patterns was possible within interviews of 30 min up to 3 h. Considering that the participation in the online survey was restricted to a specific circle of people

This framework was developed by the project consortium based on the review of academic literature on innovation patterns

others illustrated amore focussed, occasional innovation pattern. Concerning themotivation for innovation the observations represented a large diversity from strictly profit-oriented innovation patterns up to mission-driven innovation patterns aiming to support social benefits regardless of profit expectations.

The framework developed within the INFU project supported an analysis of structural changes hinted at by several visions.

Throughout the project emerging findings on changing innovation patterns were situated in this scheme. One-sided modifications towards one specification extreme triggered a deliberate search for possibly opposing signals

E g. in the case of openness special effortswere made to check for possible signals of closure in innovation patterns.

and openness, aiming at the assessment of diverging rather than converging elements of changing innovation patterns.

the project team identified eight critical issues that seemed to have special potential for changing today's innovation patterns.

Some of the proposed aspects of new innovation patterns such as the waste based innovation or the city level open innovation platform seem particularly suitable for aligning social and technological innovation towards structural transformation.

the framework supported the extraction of the following structural changes in innovation patterns 30:1) Mediation and co-ordination:

The position of markets as the main mediator between innovation demand and supply is challenged by several newinnovation patterns.

Innovation will change its spatial patterns: local elements are likely to gain relevance resulting in a more distributed innovation scenery

Innovation patterns fostering systemtransitions towards sustainability rather than isolated product development are required more andmore in order to address societal challenges.

Across policy perspectives the need for different types of innovation policy instruments to deal with newly emerging innovation patterns rather than just different priorities was stressed.

and the collection of the signals provided at the website was assessed as very valuable by experts dealing with innovation patterns.

new principles organising resource flows, different notions of learning, newworking patterns and differentmodes of democratic governance.

J. de Haan, J. Rotmans, Patterns in transitions: understanding complex chains of change, Technol. Forecast.

, W. Rhomberg, S. Saldern von, P. Warnke, V. Watkins, Structured and documented collection of current signals for arising changes in innovation patterns (deliverable D 1

Innovation futures scripts nodes of change in innovation patterns emerging from the explorative dialogue on the 19 INFU visions (deliverable D 3. 1), www. innovation-futures. org

As a mechanical engineer she has conducted various foresight projects on future prospects for industrial production and on research and innovation patterns on behalf of government authorities

but a pattern repeated by research councils and charitable funding organisations. This could be interpreted as a response to uncertainty an attempt to facilitate those most likely by their track record of excellence to achieve breakthroughs that may have a transformative effect.

and Asian democracies constitute two very non-homogeneous groups that have no clear pattern of power distance.

Keenan and Popper's study indicates that such regional patterns exist, but the foresight activities of each country might reflect, to a higher degree,

3. 2. 1. 1. Phase 1. In the first phase, literature and trend reports concerning current TV watching patterns,

3. 2. 1. 2. Phase 2. The aim of this phase was to identify personas based on the gathered information on current usage patterns and viewer profiles.

a review of the literature on current television viewing practices and time spending patterns confirmed the observation that TV is still predominantly a lean back medium.

The positive digital persona on the other hand immediately identifies ways for integrating the extra dimensions into enriched viewing patterns.

While demographics show clear patterns for the younger generations, any extrapolatiio is fraught with risks,

new patterns of use induced by new content delivery platforms vs. more constant patterns (e g. sharing, social relationships, interactions;

influence of user demographics (e g. age and gender) on use patterns; and usability, interoperability, communication and attention.

The number of participants engaged in the foresiigh exercises was variable, with no discernable pattern or trend evident.

Such shifts can result in new technological possibilitiies with potentially revolutionary impacts associated with changing innovation patterns, industry structurres and broader developments in society.

Scope and main insights Better understanding of patterns of infectious diseaase needs input from anthropology,

The criteeri for this clustering are the correlations and similariitie in interest patterns for certain subsets of applications.

fourthly, we present some informmatio on the patterns of CTI promotion in the reference period.

Patterns of CTI promotion in period 2000 2002 As already mentioned, in the period 2000 2002 634 R&d projects were supported by the CTI.

in order to break existing mental patterns, where appropriate. A case study of a strategic organizational foresight execise at the Brazilian Innovation Agency (FINEP),

Finally, social engagement means a change in the pattern of behavior by the citizens, much more participative and conscious of their rights.

Thirdly, we observe that there has been a change in the pattern of citizens'behavior, they are willing to participate in decisions

business routines as well as organisational and institutional patterns and infrastrucctures finance available (including foreign direct investment), public procurement, standards, intellectual property rights, regulations etc.

The institutions that pattern actors'behaviours and interactions are also more variable and likely to operate in less than predictable ways as they span traditional boundaries.

and categories of the conceptual framework in order to identify emerging patterns and issues. The analysis will clarify the potential of different institutional models for tackling different types of future requirements.

While there is no guarantte that patterns of change will be similar in scope and scale over the coming two decades as they were in the previous

The pattern of nationally based organisations training students could change. The very nature of what students learn,

2005)‘ Processes and patterns in transitions and system innovations: Refining the co-evolutionary multilevel perspectivve'Technological forecasting and Social Change, 72: 681 96.

which may also convey patterns of emerging issues. The deployment of these methods and the interpretation of their results in terms of requisite actions builds on individuua and collective sense-making activities.

and invade patterns of civilisation, technology, economy, and value systems. Megatrends have a half-life of at least 50 years,

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