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The open discussion examined the role of experts in various methodologies and debated the question of the weight to be given to expert input
Evaluation also serves to highlight the role of FTA as learning processes for stakeholders and thereby encouraging widespread innovation in organisational responses to the challenges of the future. 6. Importing ideas As might be expected of a session dealing with new ideas on FTA there was a wide diversity of suggestions and issues presented.
and a revisit to roadmapping and TA and the role and management of experts. In the discussion it was pointed out that the increasing complexity of the strategic approaches called for a more complex form of foresight.
Other developments deal with reducing the domain of unknowable that play an important role when dealing with the future
In the paper entitled dthe role of Scanning in Open Intelligent Systemst, Patton describes the system in place in SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE to scan the environment
and tracing the role of dirreversibilitiest of technological changes (i e. expectations that guide the research activities of scientists and firms,
In particular, it has stressed the role of interaction and learning to improve the coherence and coordination between the actions of a wide range of actors and stakeholders.
but in particular also decisionmakker from research, industry, policy-making and society, a shared understanding of current problems, goals and development options is expected to emerge among those actors that have an important role to play in shaping the future.
However, flexible will also be afforded a distinct role. A key dichotomy to adaptive planning is the one between one-stage vs. sequential decision-making.
Typically scenarios of some kind (s) play a role in this mapping. Finally a solution, i e. a single or, more typically,
This has a role also in AF. But a type of backcasting more distinctive for AF is to identify a best possible variant of each framework scenario
identification of individual objectives, roles and options As has been discussed above, going from collective work to working with the individual client organisation is a key aspect of AF.
and between public and private actors have started to play such an important role in policymakkingwithin such a comprehensive setting,
but the financial resources necessary for this approach are rarely available in the settings we are used to working in We also tend to prefer a larger role for verbal reasoning as opposed to mathematical modelling
too, was based on the definition of explicit roles and responsibilities for the different phases of the process.
Process design 3. 2. 1. Roles and responsibilities In the design of foresight processes it is helpful to assign clear
and predefined roles to the participants, because this lends structure and transparency to these processes (see 3, 17):
These Representatives had several roles in the process, both as active participants and users of the information that was produced.
Specifically, the process consisted of consecutive phases with specified roles and responsibilities for stakeholders, whereby inputs were solicited
this is yet another reason why stakeholder roles and responsibilities must be explicated carefully and communicated. Even funding organizations are faced with a learning challenges,
it means taking an active role in shaping the future. As a possible result, our prognosis of today may be falsified in the future because of a new orientation resulting from foresight.
which focus directly or indirectly on the future need and role of regulations. The crucial difference of our understanding of regulatory foresight is the main focus on the challenges for the regulatory regimes,
the results of the surveys conducted within the framework of the Community Innovation Survey also contain information about regulations and standards as obstacles for innovation and sometimes their role as source for information.
Based on a conceptual framework on the role of standards in the innovation process they derive that in a new emerging technology at first terminology standards,
However, the role of regulatory frameworks for the realisation of progress in future sciences and technologies compared to other types of obstacles is limited rather.
The role of standardisation is highest for the realisation of highly reliable network systems capable of protecting the privacy
a business approach to the role of national standardization organizations, Kluwer Academic Publ. Boston, 1999.34 DIN:
whilst the content of the map focused on organizational arrangements and roles of actors at different stages of the chain.
The role of stakeholders/actors, processes and objectives also have to be studied in order to identify the principles
and factors increasing the role of knowledge in society; a group of factors leading to innovation-based growth;
They associate the increasing role of knowledge in the emerging knowledge societies with the increased density
On the other hand, knowledge seems to have a dual, paradoxical role in modern societies, in that while increasing reliance is placed upon it,
the cultural context also plays a determining role. Perceptions and goals may change over time. Two processes thus facilitate alignment within constituencies:
that play a role in the degree to which foresight promotes effective networking. Referring to the innovation system,
iii) the role of other research actors, and more importantly, the links among universities and those other research players are disregarded often.
Third, the role of other research actors, and more importantly, the links among universities and those other research players are disregarded often.
the role of university staff, students and the civil society at large, policy-makers or businesses might differ significantly in distinctfutures'for the EU. Hence,
& Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 2. The role of universities in knowledge production 2. 1. The changing landscape of research systems Universities have traditionally been key players in
The role of users in the innovation process is recognised also now, and become much better understood 26.
Notwithstanding the above general considerations on the principal role of universities in creating knowledge, one should not overlook the significant diversity across the EU at least in three aspects:
as well as to fund higher education organisations. 14 11 The role of inventors is not to be discussed here,
(i) not only universities conduct academic research (see Section 2. 2. on the role of other research actors);
plus other research performers do play a major role in producing knowledge. In other words teaching and research nowadays are intertwined only'at a fewer number 15 Obviously,
universities do play a leading role in a number of countries, while public labs have a non-negligible weight in several other countries. 18 Thus,
the role of these latter types of research organisations should not be ignored in policy discussions. 19 In sum,
To understand the role of universities, it is worth summarising some basicstylised'facts of the overall research landscape. 20 First,
& Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 The most important recent key trends concern the roles/responsibilities of universities.
First, the balance of various roles teaching; academic research; joint RTDI projects with businesses (including troubleshooting;
Its original goals are of direct relevance for the teaching role of universities, i e. not directly for their role played in the research arena.
At the Berlin Conference, held on 18 19 september 2003, however, the need to incorporate doctoral studies into the Bologna Process was mentioned specifically 41,
As the roles of different players, and hencethe rules of the game'are changing in legitimating knowledge,
to what extent do they fulfil their various societal roles; what types of courses are offered to whom, at what level of quality;
or stories of a future world) are meant to present a number of different possible future roles, missions, organisational forms, strengths and weaknesses for universities.
p. 1. In brief, visions should highlight the role of policy in realising the desired and feasible future. 25 Note that the national
which the diversity of universities e g. in terms of the composition of various roles they play, their attitudes, norms and strategies,
who perform their tasks/roles in radically novel and diverse ways 21. For an actual foresight process, aimed at assisting decision-making either at the level of universities
Double success case Trends, driving forces Universities Largely unchanged universities Radically reformed universities The role/mission of universities The main emphasis is on teaching andbasic research'(science for the sake of science), not much interaction
intense interactions with other players in (regional, national, sectoral, international) innovation systems and with the society Universities do not understand/take on their role in addressing societal issues New activities to promote cohesion among EU regions
particularly relevant for universities to play their societal role by better understanding the close relationships between societal and techno-economic issues,
Successful multi-speed EU Trends, driving forces Universities Largely unchanged universities Radically reformed universities The role/mission of universities The main emphasis is on teaching andbasic research,
the role of new players in producing, using and validating knowledge; etc. As both the activities of universities and their environment are undergoing fundamental changes,
iii) the role of other research actors, and more importantly, the links among universities and those other research players can be discussed properly.
given their vital roles in generating, transmitting, disseminating and applying knowledge, and hence their contribution to socioeconomic development, major stakeholders need to be involved
References 1 P. A. David, Europe's Universities and Innovation Past, Present and Future, SIEPR Discussion paper No. 06-10,2006. 2 EC, The role of universities in the Europe
the Challenge for Europe, League of European research Universities, November, 2006.9 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, The Higher education sector and Its Role in Research:
the role of framework conditions, Sc. Public policy 28 (4)( 2001) 247 258.18 EUROPOLIS, The European research area:
, The Future of Research actors in the European research area, Synthesis Paper, HLEG on The Future of Key Research actors in the European research area, 2006.28 A. Bonaccorsi, The Changing Role of Researchers in Europe, 2020, Contribution to the HLEG on The Future
These closely related communities play an important role in guiding policy and decision making to anticipate
another Finnish team, bring this novel focus on tools further into the interface with policy approaches in their timely paper on the Role of Technology barometer in Assessing Past and Future development of National Innovation system.
understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors, the effectiveness of scenario planning in public policy-making.
The authors analyze the role of scenario planning to prepare public policy-making for the uncertainties and surprises of future developments and better manage complex decisions involving conflicting societal interests.
The role of this new method in a context of distributed decision-making and design is presented. 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
The role of this new method in a context of distributed decision-making and design is presented. A prospective analysis of new technology fundamentally hinges on the concept of novelty.
it is still important to make clear the role of the designer in this process. The primary role of the designer should involve creative recombination of new ideas.
If the routine process of exploring for new technological components can be automated, then the designer will be free to spend more time at value-enhancing activities.
The role of scientists, engineers, and innovators is to enhance the coherence of this network.
The role of the following paragraphs is to unpack the ideas inherent in the use of a random hierarchical graph
and it is the role of the scientist to absorb this knowledge according to his or her capabilities.
Mannermaa 22 emphasizes its role for increasing the scope of strategic alternatives in order to allow for exploring consequences of impossible strategies,
The relevant groups are identified in the situation analysis (e g. by using system constellation methods 60 to identify the roles, intentions, power and interactions among the most influential and affected 1153 E. Störmer et al./
participants adopt roles of different future stakeholder groups representing either future citizens or industry representatives define their assumed preferences
Here, the diagrams may fulfill an important role for communicating the core relationships and trade-offs. 3. 3. Utilization:
rethinking the role of policy, Enterp. Innov. Manag. Studies 1 (9)( 2000) 73 102. Table 2 The main characteristics, differences, similarities and future expectations.
XXV Nordic Hydrological Conference Northern Hydrology and its Global Role (NHC-2008), Reykjavík, Iceland. 11 13,august 2008, 2008.38 B. Walker, D. Salt, Resilience Thinking.
The role of the technology barometer in assessing the performance of the national innovation system Torsti Loikkanen a,,
. The role of performance comparisons has become increasingly important in the era of globalization when competition is not only between multinational and other enterprises but also between economies and innovation systems.
For example, the Japanese futurist Yoneji Masuda and the American sociologist Daniel Bell have stated that the essential dimensions of a new society would be seen in the emerging service economy, the role of theoretical knowledge, and technology development.
However, the role of user-produced content in the media will increase. In the theme of education a number of significant questions arise,
the changing role of knowledge-intensive work, innovations and business, and education structures. The first extensive societal issue relates to the role of knowledge-intensive work in Finnish society
and to the new aspects introduced into this role in particular, due especially to the foreseeable challenges posed by globalization.
The question considered are, for example, what will be the content of knowledge-intensive jobs retained by Finland in future
and develop the role of knowledge-intensive work, educational and R&d investment on an extensive basis,
thus have a strong operational role in fostering the necessary decisions and providing the necessary facilities for the decisions in order to become materialized.
meaning that themore important role in policywill be given for consumer and user aspects in innovation process.
Views concerning scientific-and-technical institutions and organizations 4. 3. 3. Views regarding the roles of knowledge and technology in Finnish society
Understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors Axel Volkery, Teresa Ribeiro European Environment Agency, Strategic Futures Group, Kongens Nytorv 6, DK 1050
On the other hand, the strategy unit in the Department for Agriculture in The netherlands is an example for an actor in charge of long-term sectoral analysis. A number of other procedural options can be utilized to strengthen the role of scenario planning.
and the role and purpose within the decision-making process is not always clear. It is not remarkable to diagnose a limited impact on political decision-making
References 1 Wavfrify, The role of futures thinking in government: report of the February FAN Club meeting, Prepared for the Horizon scanning Centre, 2008, available at:
and their role for Inclusive foresight to be achieved. The creation of new user-friendly ways of enabling participation, by all who wish to take part in every stage of a study,
Scepticism about the role of science in policy making has not been limited to the outsiders referred to above.
Public institutions already play an important role as programme sponsors. It will be important for them to promote inclusivity by making it an explicit requirement in the terms of reference of the studies that they promote. 3. 2. Process needs
and its influence in Foresight studies The role of human behaviour in Foresight studies is ignored usually diminishing the understanding of the outcome.
Ulrich 17 19 and more recently Dempster in her description of sympoiesis 20 extended systems thinking to provide a better understanding of the issues associated with determining system boundaries and the roles of values associated with the implementation and measurement of practical results.
and lead it if necessary or equally easily to play a secondary role when that is appropriate in their perception;
Such an emerging reconfiguration of actor relations, their roles and responsibilities is particularly striking in nanotechnology in the diverse activities in
and there are many roles that scenarios can play i e. offering possible alternative futures to assess and evaluate,
(or are in the process of being formed to shape possible new configurations of roles and responsibilities in the development of nanotechnology.
and the role of technology platforms which came about through institutional entrepreneurship between the framing conditions, the bubbles and the coordinating bodies. 1227 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222
and links them up with overall strategies in motivations for engagement around nanotechnology. 12 The scenario focused on the engagement aspects of RRI, the roles of various actor groups, the strategies and how the interactions played out.
roles and responsibilities of researchers and the issues around risk of nanoparticles. The scenario in Box 4 will be shown in more detail in Section 5. 4. 2. The effect of these scenarios in the workshop The three scenarios together covered the various positions and expectations of those actors active in the debate around RRI.
He suggested that an industry association (such as his own) could play that role..Emergence of platform technologies with applications in multiple sectors and comprising of ever increasing complexity of functional nano-elements (multifunctional tailored nanoparticles, highly integrated Lab on a chip, Moore than More integrating of semiconductors
In some countries (for example, Norway) research councils have played a key role in initiating and sponsoring foresight activities as a strategic input to funding activities.
Foresight practitioners (process consultants or core groups) play a major role in these processes, feeding results to decision-makers in charge of implementing the choices.
foresight practitioners (process consultants or core groups) and formal processes play relatively minor roles. Foresight methods preferred under this approach focus on key actors and their viewpoints, for example stakeholder analyses and Delphi studies.
thus play a central role in some cases a key role in the broader strategies and developments of science and research systems.
The Research Agency played, in collaboration with the council, an important role in the definition of this communication format.
Itwas not expected that the 2003 2007 planwould have a mediating and coordinating role in the research community or internally within the research council.
Staff from the Strategic research Council played a passive role in the core group. Strategy development thus existed between several programmes rather than being connected directly to a single programme.
the role of the Advisory Council changed slightly, dealing more with overall and general perspectives of energy research.
However, with increased recognition of the role of research and innovation in contributing towards the future development of the country,
and its remit has been shifted from an almost purely educational role to one that has a stronger focus on research.
'whereby stakeholders are playing a range of roles and representiin different interests at the same time. However contrary to previous findings (Crehan and Cassingena-Harper 2008), this did not make coordination easier in Luxembourg
thus familiarising the wider public with the stakeholders as well as with the role of science in a modern society. 6. 3. Impacts on the research community As mentioned in the previous section,
first, the already-mentioned lack of vision of the role of S&t in Luxembourg's development meant that some of the criteria were used rather blindly.
an important role of champions is to mobilise the necessary support and resources. 7. 5. The institutional positioning of prioritisation The position of the FNR in the research landscape had both benefits and drawbacks during the conduct of the exercise,
Further, the role of government is shifting from being a central steering entity to that of a moderator of collective decision-making processes.
Thus, a shared understanding of problems, goals and development options can be expected to emerge among those actors that have an important role to play in shaping the future.
In this final phase, the role of the Municipal Department for EU Strategy and Economic development (MA 27) that was in charge of coordinating the entire foresight
A key role in this negotiation process was played obviously by the panel chairs (in accepting suggested initiatives on new draft panel documents) and by the vice-mayor's office (in accepting proposals on draft versions of the final
or tackled only superficially (e g. the role in CENTROPE). In terms of its long-term facilitating function, Wien denkt Zukunft'promises to have limited a impact only,
She studied Economics and Philosophy and is doing her Phd research on the role of diversity in innovation systems.
the role of distributed intelligence. Antwerpen: Maklu Uitgevers N. V. OECD. 2002. Dynamising national innovation systems. Paris:
rethinking the role of policy. Enterprise&innovation Management Studies 1, no. 1: 73 102. Smith, K. 2002.
however, this image construction as authentic stakeholders was not enough to define their role as participants.
and of the future, by taking into account the role of language and of power. 7. The sociology of expectations is influenced by Science and Technology studies (STS) and Actor-Network-theory (ANT),
New possibilities and roles in municiple and local planning. Paper presented at Nordic conference, 14 16 august 2003,
the role of foresight in the selection of research policy priorities, 13 14 may 2002, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Seville, Spain.
However, we suggest that information professionals still have vital roles to play. Centralized information services are positioned best to arrange access to prime information resources.
On the other hand, expanded information professional roles could enable their becoming full FTA team members 4. One way or another,
Technology and Product Roadmapping QTIP serves background information roles well. It is vital in documenting external technology development activities to track their likely trajectories.
changing tools, changing roles, Information Outlook 5 (3)( 2001) 24 30.5 A l. Porter, A. Kongthon, J.-C. Lu, Research profiling:
Apart from covering economic and some other sciences (as a topic of scientific inquiry in their own right), this panel was ascribed a horizontal role
Because Finnsight was a foresight process of two funding agencies with different but complemenntar roles in the R&i system,
a professional journalist was hired in an editorial role to support of all panels. Each panel produced a report of some 30 40 pages that focused on the driving forces
rethinking the role of policy. Enterprise&innovation Management Studies 1, no. 1: 73 102. Smits, R,
Technology will play as significant a role in the 21st century as it did in the 20th''4. From the conceptual ground of the paper,
Ko nno la et al. put forward a framework to clarify different roles of foresight within the system and their respective impacts and implications for policy and societal developments.
These roles are identifying promising technological pathways, engaging relevant stakeholders and creating common visions that move into action.
and to the increasing role of modelling and simulation in developing a better understanding of complexity
and innovation system and identifies the catalytic role of Foresight in this framework. The European system is sketched in terms ofinstitutional arrangements''by depicting three (interrelated) arenas for the orientation, the programming and the performance of research.
1) EU institutions have had a prominent legal role by delaying the introduction of GM crop in Europe.
Nano excellence seems to be concentrated highly (role oftechnology platforms'to work at the nanoscale) in 200 clusters where Asia has a strong presence:
rethinking the role of policy, Enterprise and Innovation Management Studies 1 (1)( 2000) 73 102.17 O. Marsili, The Anatomy and Evolution of Industries:
The role of scanning in open intelligence systems Kermit M. Patton*Scan Program, SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE, Menlo Park, CA 94025, United states Received 13 may 2004;
Senior managers must understand their role (refraining from normal decision-making, judgmental behavior patterns), and junior staff must feel comfortable in expressing themselves.!
and helped to shape the international understanding of the function of technology foresight as having a role in priority setting 2. It remains a key application for large Delphi exercises as witnessed by the recent Chinese survey 3. Foresight is used also to inform
A gradual awareness and general agreement for moving away from one-size-fits-all approaches is giving foresight an enhanced role in policy design tailored to particular context
The role of foresight in such contexts needs both to be enhanced and better understood. An increasing structural focus for foresight exercises is associated not only with broader R&i system reform but also with an engagement with new-wave innovation policies.
We note the emergence of a combination of corrective, disruptive and creative roles. 2010 Elsevier Ltd.
The role of foresight in such contexts needs both to be enhanced and better understood. In the corporate world, the rise of open innovation has emphasised the need for firms to work with their collaborators
and shape the future of their innovation environment 6. Firms are increasingly playing a role in defining innovation policy due to the rise of demand side approaches and the convergence of corporate and structural foresight.
in Section 3 we catalogue the emergence of structural foresight and in Section 4 its growing role as an instrument for aligning actors in innovation.
and is likely to have increased an role in future programmes. L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 246 relevant to end-users (e g. personal computing.
They also play the principal role in the creation and management of portfolios of research projects.
foresight frequently has a structuring role. A distinction may be drawn between structural activities which are intended to build on a thematic or priority-setting approach for example building action networks around the priorities and foresight exercises
Estonia and Malta) with the explicit aim of the eforesee project as beingto examine the potential role of foresight in dealing with the structural changes to the economy that accompany the accession process,
and the series of exercises in the Czech republic 9. On the other hand Havas and Keenan stress the important role that foresight has had in contributing to the realignment of the science system through bringing it to the fore of discussion and highlighting the missing links
Philips and Decathlon) use foresight in a catalytic role to stimulate and enhance their innovation processes by improving communication
It has long been understood that foresight in particular has a role in building shared strategies see Georghiou in 1996:
As an example of embedded foresight, Brummer et al. indicate three roles for such an application of foresight:(
foresight is instrumental in informing the design and implementation of research and innovation policy with three distinctive roles:
Corrective role addressing deficiencies and systemic failures and policy lock ins. Disruptive role encouraging an emphasis on crisis or breakthrough events
which can completely change the current status quo. Creative role stimulating the conditions whereby new networks and structures can evolve
and grow. The traditional emphasis on production of broad-based priorities lists appears to be more of a historical phenomenon than a permanent feature,
On the other hand the more embedded role as an instrument of articulating structuring and delivering research and innovation policy offers a robust future for these approaches.
, 2007.24 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, The higher education sector and its role in research: status and impact of international future-oriented technology analysis, in:
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