Expectation

Expectation (347)
Explicit expectation (4)
Future expectation (6)

Synopsis: Expectation: Expectation:

and tracing the role of dirreversibilitiest of technological changes (i e. expectations that guide the research activities of scientists and firms,

and modification of actual policy strategies because the perception and the expectations of actors with respect to future developments have changed as a result of the process.

In other words, it is expected that the future be shaped by aligning expectations and thus creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Moreover, they tend to be regarded as a means to actually realise the expectations on which they build by influencing agenda-setting and decision-making.

Can we really trust the expectations raised in a foresight exercise? How can individual actors, and policy-makers in particular, actually protect themselves against the fallacies of false promises

and over-optimistic expectations expressed and brought to the fore in a foresight exercise? Should we not be more precautionary

While on the one hand (over-)optimistic expectations may be important to increase the momentum of a topic in public or political discourse,

a naïve belief in these expectations may lead to a misallocation of resources and create deep disappointments at a later stage.

it strengthens the rational basis of decision-making by capturing often implicit assumptions, expectations and underlying values about the future explicitly in different scenario images and corresponding pathways;

however, may foster high expectations concerning shared visionbuilldin and formation of new research and technology development (RTD) networks.

Such expectations are not necessarily easy to fulfill due to the complexities of vertical and horizontal coordination in national innovation systems 3. Indeed

This result reveals indirectly that there are strong expectations that those standards will obviously have a high positive impact to improve the former aspects.

and increasingly in the context of policymakking building on their capacity to facilitate an alignment of actors'expectations through interactions. 3. 3. 2. Examples

This enables management of expectations and hype by which emerging S&tare characterised, and leads to alignment of actors.

25 but this might be affected by hyped expectations. In some MNCS separate roadmaps are developed based on anticipation of multiple future scenarios 13 cf. also 26.

Literature in the management of innovation, expectations management and sociology-of-technology fields has stressed repeatedly that for assessments during early stages of technological emergence, more‘open-ended'

What came together in the co-construction of a trajectory were,(1) heuristics,(2) an exemplary product,(3) a cultural matrix of expectations,

and in the early 1990s high expectations were raised about the possibilities of performing (bio) chemical analysis at any lab-on-a-chip and at anytime, for example, total blood analysis at the patient's bedside (Point-of-care testing).

Of particular interest is the proliferation of research and development of nanotechnologies for cell analysis the laboratory, the proliferation of expectation of applications for such cell-on-a-chip devices,

For the conceptual developmeen of MPM, our self-set task was to integrate insights from roadmapping, dynamics of Emerging s&t and expectations,

Expectations, agendas and networks in lab-on-a-chip technologies, Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag. 18 july September 2006) Number 3 4. 49 M. Callon, J. Law, A. Rip, Mapping the dynamics of science and technology, The Macmillan Press Ltd.

where studies of expectations and paths are combined with strategy articulation tools to provide strategic intelligence for reflexive governance and management of Emerging s&t.

the evaluation revealed that institutional settings and attitudes within public institutions strongly affected expectations and the uptake of foresight results.

but also by people's wants, motives, personalities, experiences, value systems, wishes, hopes, expectations, beliefs, feelings, attitudes, needs and concerns.

All observations are conditioned on previous expectations and the formulation of prior theories. This perspective then, suggests that knowledge is a network of interlocked claims.

Design 30 (6)( 2003) 885 909.30 B. Truffer, J. Voss, K. Konrad, Mapping expectations for system transformations:

Thus, the informative outcomes do not refer to the expectations that foresight activity would necessarily lead to specific actions.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 3. 2. Survey study of future visions In addition to indicator-based comparison the technology barometer instrument includes a survey about people's expectations regarding the future development trends.

as well as their expectations for the foreseeable future. By doing this, the survey complements and diversifies the results of the indicator study by allowing the mutual comparison of the four respondent groups'views

the expectations were very high. The Delphi surveys 16 were known mainly by expert communities who participated because at that point in time

It did not have to fight high expectations but was promoted by the coming year 2000 and the demand for knowledge about the future.

However, one might argue that the higher costs of inductive approaches in the beginning might pay off later in the process given the fact that unmet expectations about the ability of scenarios to deliver novel insights about future developments oftentimes lead to frustration or rejection of the approach by policy-makers.

expectations and capacities to conform to these aspirations continues to exist. Contradictions between product and process functions of scenario planning might aggravate this confusion.

In this paper practical ways to reduce the deficit are proposed that ought to increase the responsiveness of Foresight programmes to society's values, concerns and expectations.

lies in the same ground as GMOS. 2. Expectations of Inclusive foresight The sheer practical arduousness of attempting to run Inclusive foresight in the way outlined below means that expectations of it need to be modest,

that require direct public participation Help meet societal expectations of increased transparency and involvement in decision making.

How Inclusive foresight would meet these expectations will be outlined in the following section. 2. 1. Broadening the scope:

more Inclusive foresight All of the above expectations require contributions to Foresight to be made from a wider range of participants (than the conventional expert community),

and not in the expectation of guarantees of improvement as both amelioration and improvement are relative terms. 4. 1. 4. Sources of legitimization 10.

and effectiveness of governance Realising societal benefits Credibility and trust for good governance and openness to public scrutiny of risks and expectations Protection of fundamental rights in the absence of the precautionary principle through unavoidable situations.

uncertain and involve multiple actors working at multiple levels shot through with anticipatory strategies and expectations on risks and benefits of the emerging technology field.

and these expectations influence their attempts to shape activities 21. Recent projects such as Socrobust 11 were an attempt at creating anticipatory management

Paradigms, trajectories and expectations offer partial understanding of how new technologies emerge, but have not answered these questions,

Expectations can give indications of directions and can transform into agendas which shape action (this is emphasized in the quasi-evolutionary model mentioned earlier).

Van Merkerk and Robinson 9 show examples from the field of lab-on-a-chip technology and how expectations have an effect on selection choices of pathways to follow,

This can occur also at through anticipatory coordination. 9 Studies also show how expectations can prestructure actions through prospective structures 21.

based on expectations and path dependencies that are crystallising out of the present (endogenous futures). They not only provide a platform for positioning the tensions,

In this way they are similar to the functions of expectations the scenarios can be read

and case analysis to find expectations of various actor groups and entanglements between groups and particular elements of RRI.

The scenario in Box 4 will be shown in more detail in Section 5. 4. 2. The effect of these scenarios in the workshop The three scenarios together covered the various positions and expectations of those actors active in the debate around RRI.

and based on expectations analysis and the concept of emerging irreversibilities, show how actors interactions and reactions would co-evolve with the broader IC+landscape. 6. 1. A new member to the socio-technical scenario family

Change 54 (1997) 251 268.9 R. van Merkerk, D. K. R. Robinson, The interaction between expectations, networks and emerging paths:

Policy 28 (1999) 777 792.17 S. Bakker, H. van Lente, M. Meeus, Arenas of expectations for hydrogen technologies, Innovation studies Utrecht (ISU) Working

Paper Series, Working Paper#08.19,2009. 18 H. van Lente, Promising Technology The Dynamics of Expectations in Technological developments.

Policy 6 (1)( 1977). 21 H. van Lente, A. Rip, Expectations in technological developments: an example of prospective structures to be filled in by agency, in:

competing expectations for cfc alternatives, Res. Policy 31 (6)( 2002) 935 946.25 C. Freeman, C. Perez, Structural crises of adjustment:

and the analysis portrayed in this paper is instructive for the planning of large-scale foresight exercises that need to serve high-level policy objectives subject to demanding time constraints and expectations.

In many contexts political interests are as legitimate as‘neutral'expectations about future developments. In this perspective the premises for foresight might be that:

The strategy processes can benefit from better articulated expectations about future technologiies It is not enough to argue that a certain technology offers great opportunities for future commercial exploitation.

to manage expectations of (policy) impacts; to identify and mobilise champions to drive the process forward

This expectation is informed by the so-called‘sovereignty niches'areas where the traditional wealth of Luxembourg has been built owing to geographical (steel) or legislative (banking industry) specificities,

Thus, the expectation of the MCHER was for the exercise to identify a much smaller number of research areas/domains perhaps just two

there is expectation that processes and findings will have some effects on a wide array of stakeholders.

the expectation was that MCHER would use the results to inform a wide array of policies beyond the formulation of new FNR programmes.

first, the number of priority research domains at 18 went beyond the expectations of the MCHER,

Expectations around competence niches Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 948 F. Glod et al. dictated that national priorities had to be fewer in number

In other words, the future is being shaped by aligning expectations and thus‘creating'a self-fulfilling prophecy.

up to the point that the expectation of high barriers prevents the necessary initiatives to be taken in the first place.

Mapping expectations for system transformations. Lessons for sustainability foresight in German utility sectors. Technological forecasting & Social Change 75, no. 9: 1360 72.

'They emphasise that future negotiating processes have to be studied according to how they are performed instead of looking at them as mere problem-solving tools for more prudent strategic decision making. 6 The Sociology of expectations analyses foresight practises as structured around expectations and promises in technology,

science and innovation. 7 Expectations embrace both the possiblle probable and the highly unlikely, and thus address the uncertainty of the future.

Schwandt and Gorman (2004) argue that organisations do not necessarily follow a straight and rational logic of techno-scientific expectations and promises.

however, is given to the paradoxical aspects of reflexive knowledge in its relation to expectations and the organisation of the future.

How do we mobilise knowledge for futureorieente activities and expectations about future development? Giddens (1991,29) argues that our present knowledge about social institutions

Thus reflexive knowledge might in the end confound our expectations. Therefore we need a broader understanding of reflexivity Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Foresight and governance:

which collecctiv expectations are predefined by governmental actors who need to establish future visions firmly within the frame of existing governmental structures.

because a certain image of a group of participants forms their contributions and the expectations regarding their participation.

Expectations and learning as principles for shaping the future. In Contested futures: a sociology of prospective techno-science, ed. N. Brown, B. Rappert,

the dynamics of expectations in technological developments. Phd diss. University of Twente. Van Notten, P. 2005.

Q Note that this seriously alters relationships and expectations between manager users and technology analysts. Particularly for academic researchers, we have an inclination to say bwe can deliver a fine analysis;

in the belief that our analysis may be instructive for the planning of large-scale foresight exercises that need to serve high-level policy objectives subject to demanding time constraints and expectations.

These expectations can rarely be met unless the exercise achieves an adequate balance with regard to design attributes that pertain to alternative uses of results,

in the expectation that different organisations would use these results in whatever ways they would see pertinent.

In view of positive experiences, we believe that analogous approaches may be useful also in other contexts where expert panels are required to generate coherent and comprehensive foresight results in the presence of tight timeframes and high expectations.

Brown, K. Konrad, H. van Lente, The sociology of expectation in science and technology, Technology analysis & Strategic management 18 (3/4)( 2006) 285 298.7 B. De

Typically there is a tension between the expectations of sponsors who remain focussed on deliverables in priority list format,

The design of foresight activities addressing societal challenges can benefit from the structured approaches that help to identify the expectations concerning the management of the foresight process

Thus, the informative outcomes do not refer to the expectations that a foresight activity would necessarily lead to specific actions.

which are driven often by the diverse expectations laid on the project. The creation of new, especially shared knowledge is challenging, in particular,

and expectations of the participants but can also ensure the relevant outcomes useful for further application in decision-making.

in order to accommodate different stakeholder expectations. Most of the projects we analysed have important informative functions in sense that they aim to provide new knowledge for better understanding of issues and of their future implications and challenges.

The positioning of the projects in the framework (as depicted in Fig. 3 of this paper) helped characterise the projects and the related expectations on them.

The results of our ex post analysis of foresight projects confirm the wide set of expectations laid on foresight activities.

We expect that the developed framework can facilitate the discussion about the expectations and the management of foresight projects and about its impact on policy-making and society at large.

and expectation what proportions of a given (usually, a supposedly expert) population anticipate various types of outcome or rates of development,

-Help meet societal expectations of increased transparency and involvement in decision making. In order to achieve a genuine,

To advance CSR it is important to look beyond community expectations to opportunities to achieve social and economic benefits simultaneously

Corporate governance codes and shareholder expectations have changed the need for boards of directors to demonstrate effective leadership,

and unforeseen developments that have altered in some way at least their expectations if not the direction of their existence,

The assessment of the respondents from EU Candidate and Associate countries seemed to be the opposite with high controversy expectations.

Phase changes can occur in rules, expectations, behaviours, etc. Such phase change is increasing recognised as common in public policy;

and constrained by particular values or expectations, and being able to deconstruct an existing frame to demonstrate that a particular way of seeing is being used.

To trace the emerging irreversibilities we focus on the dynamics of expectations and the agenda building processes.

Expectations; Agenda building 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:

important here are the dynamics of expectations and the processes of agenda building. We will develop a three-level framework,

which enables to trace the dynamics of expectations and agenda building in detail and we employ it in our case study. We will show that it is possible to trace emerging irreversibilities for a specific application of nanotubes (Section 3). We will conclude by placing our contribution in a historical perspective of technology assessment

the stakes and the expectations are high for various actors. At the same time, the situation is very fluid,

The promising results and outlooks reshape the expectations for further research and eventually the research agendas 5. Consequently,

and routines of researchers and has shaped expectations of a new audience. 3 A second example of emerging irreversibilities are the collective roadmaps,

which can be seen as articulated expectations about which path a collective of companies or an industry (as in the case of chip manufacturing) should follow for a certain period (say, 10 years).

The path as is written down in the roadmap is the expression of the shared expectation that this is the right way to go.

i) the expectations that guide the search activities of scientists and firms, and (ii) the processes of agenda building 5,

9. Expectations have important roles in technological development. Since all involved actors scientists, firms, policy makers have to act under the condition of insufficient information,

they will depend on the shared expectations that are present. Expectations shape the mindsets of the various actors,

while, in their turn, expectations will be shaped and reshaped by research results, findings in other technical fields,

or external forces. In general, expectations mould variation processes and guide selection 10. Likewise, in processes of agenda building

variation is reduced further as certain topics are selected as important and urgent. Expectations are translated into the agendas of the different actors, upon

which they act. The agendas give rise to activities and different outcomes (e g.,, scientific results, a collaboration between companies),

expectations and agenda building. 4 We distinguish various interrelated levels where variation and selection occur:(

in order to address the dynamics of expectations and processes of agenda building. Reports by NGO's Reports by government agencies Spokesperson statements Reports that translate technological developments into market potentials Articles addressing the market potentials of technological developments Press releases of individual firms Articles that address the developments

they feed expectations by various actors in society (e g.,, the public, politicians, firms. On the 5 1 nm is approx. 1/80,000 of the thickness of a human hair

The company plays an important role in the development of nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes. 3. 1. Tracing dynamics of expectations The three levels in the framework can be specified in relation to the case.

and understanding of nanotubes production and characteristics13 have led to expectations on the level of the society.

From the market side the expectations focus on the possibilities that nanotubes might have to improve or revolutionise existing products.

Concluding, the expectations on the societal level show a contradiction in the sense that on the one hand nanotubes are used without regulation

However, the expectations are that commercialising this option still lies far ahead (at least 10 years.

Nanotechnology should give the answers here. 3. 1. 3. Research group The expectations of using nanotubes for nonvolatile memories started with the Nature publication of Charles Lieber's group 16.

as mentioned above, reinforced the expectations that nonvolatile memories could be produced. This can be shown by a statement of Ball 27 in an article where he discusses these results:

however these expectations are expressed 2 years later, after the new scientific results, which were obtained in the meantime. At the market side, other dynamics are present.

based on their expectations, show confidence in a success of Nantero. In May 2003 a prototype of 10 Gb is ready

Here we see that Nantero over the years has built on the expectations that nonvolatile memories will be commercialised soon.

These expectations were formulated in the following way. In 2002 Rueckes et al. 16 state: bplans for molecular electronics, may be realized soon.

Q Within these expectations we see a shift from discovery (2000), via a prototype (May 2003) to manufacturing a proprietary approach (2004).

Subsequent results in basic research as well as from Nantero have reinforced the expectations. These promising results have led to the second round VC financing for Nantero as well.

processes 3. 2. 1. Society Are the expectations (concerns) about the toxicity of nanoparticles (incl.

Scientists observe hurdles for further development of a promising application (guided by the expectations) and start to work on solving the problems at R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1105 hand.

) 3. 3. Tracing emerging irreversibilities Based on the evidence on the dynamics of expectations and agenda building processes as presented in the previous two paragraphs, we will now present main findings for each of the different cells

and nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes (Fig. 8). We have shown that results of research groups directly give rise to expectations for promising applications and change the agendas for the future.

because the results shape the expectations about the most promising applications. Second, sentiments at the societal level might influence the possibilities for the electronic industry to develop technologies that might receive negative publicity.

The hopes, expectations and also the increasing social concerns raise questions about the possibilities to assess the ongoing developments.

Therefore, we suggested in this paper that a focus on expectations and agenda building is helpful, as these are phenomena that can be observed early on in situations that show a great deal of fluidity and open ends.

the dynamics of expectations in technological development. Dissertation, Delft: Eburon, 1993.11 B. Latour, Science in Action, Open University Press, Milton Keynes, 1987.12 OECD, Technology and the economy:

In his Phd thesis he examines the dynamics of expectations in the development of technology.

There are great expectations among policymakers, scientists and industry representatives that nanotechnology may or will contribute to economic prosperity

In order to navigate foresight in the sea of expectations, one needs both clear sight as well as a compass.

which studies the informal production and circulation of expectations in science and technology. He derives three generic lessons from the sociology of expectations

Miller 2007) and expectations (Borup et al. 2006) that provide us temporary stepping stones on the way ahead. We may illustrate the expansionary character of this process using alpinism as a metaphor.

and we can continuously adjust our expectations and predictive models. Humans are also able to use scientific models for prediction.

In the present context, with its emphasis on science and technology, is embedded foresight in diminuendo in its corresponding social and commercial expectations?

and will face FTA with a new world of expectations of a form of social control of technology. 8. Epilogue In conclusion,

http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations: lessons from the sociology of expectations Harro van Lente a a Department of Innovation studies, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable development, Utrecht University, 3508 TC, Utrecht, The netherlands Published online:

Harro van Lente (2012) Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations: lessons from the sociology of expectations, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 769-782, DOI:

8 september 2012,769 782 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations: lessons from the sociology of expectations Harro van Lente*Department of Innovation studies, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable development, Utrecht University, 3508 TC Utrecht, The netherlands Foresight can be described as the articulation of possible futures.

which studies the informal production and circulation of expectations in science and technology. Finally, three generic lessons from the sociology of expectations are derived,

expectations of technological change; foresight; technological change and dynamics 1. Introduction While foresight has been developed into an important instrument for both firms

and discussed how expectations are part and parcel of all professional practices and circulate amongst engineers, board rooms,

Expectations are produced, circulated, adapted and are forceful in various ways (Berkhout 2006). Foresight exercises, or‘formal'assessments of the future,

which studies the informal production and circulation of expectations in science and technology. These two reviews allow us to reflect in Section 4 on the implications for the practice

the daily production of research and innovation Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations 771 Table 1. Functions of foresight for policy-making.

This approach studies how expectations in science and technology are structured, how they grow, gain dramatic attention or quietly disappear,

After all, the conscious and deliberate production of expectations in foresight occurs in an environment where promises

expectations, visions already Abound in general, the social sciences emphasise that human activities are oriented intrinsically towards the future.

A central theme is that expectations are statements that do something, rather than being descriptive statements that may be true or false.

An expectation is not just a description of a (future) reality, but rather a change or creation of a new reality (Guice 1999).

In other words, expectations are performative: they do something. The utterance‘yes, I'll bring it to you tomorrow'is not a description

Van Lente (1993,2000) has argued that such transformation of a promise into a requirement is a central mechanism in the dynamics of expectations:

'Expectations, thus, can be defined as statements about the future uttered or inscribed in texts or materials that circulate.

Many scholars have pointed to the variety of expectations: they may be positive (promises) and negative, and will vary in level, content and modality (Konrad 2006).

The level of expectations may range from encompassing, abstract sketches of the future (macro) to detailed elements (micro.

In terms of content, expectations may concern technical, commercial or societal aspects, and probably in a mix of these.

And the modalities may range from taken Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations 773 for granted statements that do not meet any resistance,

to meticulously organised arguments to counteract foreseen rebuttals. 3. 1. Dynamics of expectations How, then, is the dynamics of expectations depicted in the sociology of expectations?

The wellknnow story of Moore's Law is used often as a prime example (Mackenzie 1990.

In the case of technological expectations, however, it is not easy to distinguish between the validity of a claim and the collective perception of it (Van Lente 2000;

3. 2. Force of expectations The case of Moore's Law is extreme, but highlights the forceful presence of expectations in industrial and professional networks.

The sociology of expectations has detailed three forces of expectations in the dynamics of technical change: legitimation, heuristic guidance and coordinattion First,

what expectations do is to raise attention and legitimise investments: a project or programme can be defended by referring to a promising future (Borup et al. 2006.

While the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 774 H. van Lente current performance of a technology

Indeed, many studies show that expectations are protective: a project that fails now may promise to deliver something in the future

while expectations are needed to start a project or a programme, they also introduce vulnerability when projects or programmes bring other outcomes than expected as they usually do (Geels and Smit 2000).

They propose that a new development is accompanied by‘inflated expectations'that receive much attention and mobilise many investments,

Second, expectations provide direction to the search processes of science and technology (Rip and Kemp 1998.

but the promising direction is available through the informal expectations circulating amongst technology developers. Expectations thus reduce uncertainty in much the same way as heuristics do in research and development (Nelson andwinter 1982.

Finally, there is a coordination effect of expectations (Van Lente 1993; Konrad 2006. Techniica development is not solitary work,

but the work of networks of companies and research institutions. When a central control is lacking,

expectations indicate pieces of work and stipulate roles. Rosenberg (1982) argues that expectations about rapid technologicca development may inhibit the development:

when potential customers believe that, within the next few months, an improved version is going to be available,

but also the content of research can be influenced by expectations. In the case of genomics, for example, where knowledge about gene sequences and protein structures promises to lead to new,

but the three forces of expectations together produce such effects. Indeed, there are many examples of unfulfilled promises (Douthwaite, Keatinge, and Park 2001;

In most other cases of technological development, expectations are less coercive, but still forceful (Brown, Rappert, and Webster 2000).

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations 775 3. 3. Expectations

and strategies A general assumption is that expectations can play such a big role due to the inherent uncertaiint of technological development (Antonelli 1989).

which expectations are shared. Berkhout (2006) emphasises the distinction between private and collective expectations. The first type relates to the cognitive schemes through

which individuals organise their experiences and choices, to be examined by psychological methods. Collective expectations, on the other hand, are available in public statemennts They are shared not in the sense that everyone accepts them as valid,

but in the sense that they are recognised and available as a resource to convince others.

Expectations will not automatiicall lead to change; it is first necessary that others move accordingly. Berkhout, therefore, suggests viewing expectations as‘bids'.

'A bid will find more support when it aligns better with current interests and current moral orders,

an expectation should not be too precise; otherwise it may no longer be shared. In that case, a counter-bid will soon be attractive.

The effect of expectations also depends on the social distance to knowledge production. Mackenzie (1990) describes in his study on guided nuclear missiles how the degree of uncertainty about the promised capabilities of the missile depends on the distance from the development itself.

it is not clear to them what the expectation entails, and they are indifferent to its veracity.

According to a realist perspective on expectations, a distinction can be made between an expectation and the‘real'state of affairs.

The‘rational expectations'tradition in economics, for example, calculates the optimal forecast based on the‘reality'of expectations.

However, according to a constructivist approach to expectations it is not possible to decide a priori whether the promises of stem cells or nanotechnology are‘true'.

This does not imply that in a constructivist perspective all expectations are necessarily the same.

Some expectations are more robust because they are connected to more actors, more data Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 776 H. van Lente and more developments (Konrad 2006.

Instead of determining whether an expectation is‘true'or not, the constructivist perspective focuses on identifying

or promoting the‘robustness'of an expectation (Sung and Hopkins 2006). This provides other opportunities for foresight and assessments.

For foresight exercises, it is relevant to consider that the constructivist perspective acknowledges that others are in the same situation as those who judge the expectations (Van't Klooster and Van Asselt 2011.

others may be victims of the game of expectations, but the analyst, who studies them, understands the game

it locates products and techniques on the hype cycle (from‘inflated expectations, 'via‘disillusionment'to‘productivity')in order to decide

The popularity of the Gartner graphs now suggests that a second order herd behaviour has emerged. 3. 4. Steering with expectations Expectations

thus inspire new technological developments that subsequently have to be protected by other expectations, for instance provided by roadmaps or other foresight results.

www. gartner. com. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations 777‘niche'has been introduced to denote this protection (Vergragt 1988) and traces back to the evolutionary metaphor

Asimilar steering effect of expectations is also central in studies of Leitbilder, or guiding visions (Dierkes, Hoffmann, and Marz 1996;

The discussion is summarised in Table 3. The first generic lesson is that the formal articulation of futures takes place in situations where expectations abound

In other words, foresight necessarily occurs in a‘sea'of expectations. The ubiquitous informal expectations circulate within and between groups of developers and policy-makers,

and, inevitably, they do their legitimating and guiding work. Foresight, thus, necessarily draws from existing repertoires.

by Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 778 H. van Lente Table 3. Lessons of the sociology of expectations for Foresight objectives of foresight Lessons of sociology of expectations Expectations are drawn from repertoires Expectations

are performative Expectations enhance the strategic character of S&t priority-setting The efficacy of foresight as an antidote to lock in is limited Enhanced legitimation for selected priorities Foresight exercises

Since foresight necessarily draws from existing repertoiire of expectations, is will not generate many‘new'expectations,

although‘new combinations'between elements of the repertoires are possible. The same risks loom for the objectives of networking and vision building:

an increasingly important task for foresight is to critically reflect on the available, circulating expectations (Könnölä, Brummer, and Salo 2007).

Such countervaailin strategy, again, is weakened by the dynamics of expectation, because stakeholders may be new, but their contribution will draw from a more general repertoire (Nahuis and Van Lente 2008).

where companies Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations 779

and consultants anticipate the wave of expectations by locating their technological option in the cycle.

'The review of the sociology of expectations discussed how expectations legitimise, inform and coordinate efforts in research, firms and government.

and nourished by informal estimates, voiced expectations, and circulating images of the future, both limits and enables the formal anticipations.

the embedment in a sea of expectations also adds a dual vulnerability. When a formal articulation is surprising, that is,

it is seen not as adding much news. The alignment of formal and informal expectations makes foresight socially more robust,

in order to navigate foresight in the sea of expectations, one needs both clear sight as well as a compass.

and philosophy and has published widely on the dynamics of expectations in science and technology. His research interests concern how emerging technologies such as nanotechnology

The role of technological expectations in a mixed model of international diffusion of process innovations:

Arenas of expectations for hydrogen technologies. Technological forecasting and Social Change 78, no. 1: 152 62.

Normative expectations in systems innovation. Technology analysis & Strategic management 18, nos. 3 4: 299 311. Berube, D. M. 2006.

Negotiating contested visions and place-specific expectations of the hydrogen economy. Technology analysis & Strategic management 18, nos. 3 4: 361 74.

Expectations and the shaping of pharmacogenetics. Social Studies of Science 33, no. 3: 327 64.

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations 781 Hellsten, I. 2002.

The social dynamics of expectations: The interaction of collective and actor-specific expectations on electronic commerce and interactive television.

Technology analysis & Strategic management 18, nos. 3 4: 429 44. Kuusi, O, . and M. Meyer. 2002.

On technological expectations. In Inside the black box: Technology and economics, ed. N. Rosenberg, 104 19.

Towards a method for evaluating technological expectations: Revealing uncertainty in gene silencing technology discourse. Technology analysis & Strategic management 18, nos. 3 4: 345 59.

The dynamics of expectations in technological developments. Phd thesis (University of Twente), Delft: Eburon. Van Lente, H. 2000.

Competing expectations: The case of hydrogen storage technologies. Technology analysis & Strategic management 22, no. 6: 693 709.

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