Survey

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Synopsis: Survey: Survey:

Moreover, because survey-like results are obtained from heterogeneous participants through a relatively narrow communication channel (in terms of media richness),

Second, survey approaches are displayed which enable regulatory bodies to identify future needs for regulations. Finally the usability of the Delphi methodology is discussed

The analysis of regulatory foresight in the narrow sense is based, first, on a broad survey of literature databases and the internet regarding regulatory impact assessments in general,

matching policy instruments and methodologies Innovation surveys Econometric models Control group approaches Cost benefit analysis Expert panels/peer review Field/case studies Network analysis Foresight/Technology assessment

indicator-based approaches surveys Delphi studies. 3. Methodologies 3. 1. Indicator-based approaches 3. 1. 1. Introduction and definition New developments in science and technology

e g. surveys or Delphi studies. 503 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 3. 2. Surveys 3. 2. 1. Introduction and definition

in this section we cover surveys which aim to identify future needs regarding regulations and standards.

The following operational steps for the performance of surveys to identify future demand for regulations

and regions Collection of survey and preparation of data set; Definition of goal variables of the organisation depending on the possible requirements for regulations and standards;

Statistical or econometric data analysis and interpretation of results. 3. 2. 2. Examples Although we cannot refer to a large number of regulation-and standard-related surveys,

we are able to report on some surveys, whose data permits the assessment of the future needs for and impacts of regulations and standards.

In a European-wide company survey, companies were asked about the relevance of different types of regulations for the market introduction of new products and services and the various aspects of innovation activities 8. In addition,

Further more technology specific surveys focusing on the future regulatory requirements to react to progress in science

we are able to reference a series of relevant surveys. We start with some studies performed in Germany or German-speaking countries.

In a survey conducted in 1998 among companies of 12 manufacturing sectors in Germany, Austria and Switzerland, 2 Nevertheless,

the results of the surveys conducted within the framework of the Community Innovation Survey also contain information about regulations and standards as obstacles for innovation and sometimes their role as source for information.

The survey approach by Blum et al. was replicated for Denmark, integrating also service companies 31. This leads us to the studies on standards focusing on services or service companies.

In a survey among German service companies, Mörschel and Schwengels 35 present a ranking of future standardisation areas according to their priority,

CENELEC and ETSI published by the European commission 38 to develop a standardisation work programme to support the internal market for the service sectors. 3. 2. 3. The future needs for standards in nanotechnology based on a survey among stakeholders

we present another example of a survey, which allows future needs for standards in an emerging technology to be identified.

Blind and Gauch 39 conducted a survey among the stakeholders of nanotechnology research and standardisation in Germany.

and experimental development. 506 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Summarising the results of the survey and relating them to the conceptual framework,

especially regarding quality and compatibility standards. 3. 2. 4. General assessment In general, there is only limited experience in the use of surveys for identifying future needs for standards and regulation.

Surveys are rather time-intensive, since they require the development of a questionnaire, the performance of a survey either via traditional postal mail or via online survey, the collection and cleaning of the data and finally, the analysis of the data.

Surveys can be used to ask stakeholders about future needs for standardisation and regulation activities. Finally, surveys have a high acceptance as a methodology

if certain aspects and shortcomings are considered adequately. Data requirements/indicators: The main advantage of surveys is that they allow the consideration of very specific regulatory challenges in the future,

which cannot be covered by indicator-based methodologies. Hence, they are able to provide unique data in this respect.

Depending on the size of these surveys, there should be the possibility to distinguish the future needs for standards

and regulations differentiated into different types of stakeholder groups, which allows comparative analyses. If surveys address the universe of organisations, e g. firms,

and lead to representative results, the data can be combined with indicator-based approaches representing the universe in science and technology.

Surveys are probably not the best tool to collect information about the future needs for standards and regulations.

It is structured based on a survey of expert groups and makes use of the implicit knowledge of participants.

but all agree that a Delphi study requires an expert survey in at least two or more rounds.

The survey results could be used to identify those areas which are hampered either by regulation or

we can only list some exercises, like surveys and trend workshops, which tried to identify future needs in regulation in already existing

NO-REST ITU Survey Fraunhofer ISI 2005)( 1=low importance to 5=high importance) Year Importance R&d Regulation Deregulation Standardisation Widespread use

Based on the few existing experiences with surveys, it can be concluded that this methodology allows the identification of very specific future regulatory issues.

The responses of the survey are only valid indications if all relevant stakeholder groups are addressed adequately

and private companies, is an option to improve the reliability and the validity of survey results.

and to integrate them into survey and Delphi approaches. The same is true for Table 3 Overview

and even stakeholders Influence of non-technology-related factors cannot be considered Surveys Quantitative Micro data of the respondent

The Fifth Technology Forecast Survey Future technology in Japan (NISTEP Report No. 25, English translation of the 5th Japanese Delphi Report, abridged version), Tokyo. 44 Bundesministerium

The Sixth Technology Forecast Survey Future technology in Japan toward The Year 2025, No. 52, NISTEP Report, Tokyo,(1993.

, Comparing Technology Forecast Surveys, Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg, 1994.48 Science and Technology foresight Center (NISTEP), The Seventh Technoloy Forecast Future technology in Japan toward the Year 2030, No. 72

A survey, Calif. Manage. Rev. 43 (2)( Winter 2001) 139 160.19 D. Rigby, C. Gillies, Making the most of management tools and techniques:

A survey from Bain & Company, Strateg. Change 9 (2000) 269 274.20 P. Savioz, M. Blum, Strategic forecast tool for SMES:

a critical survey, Camb. J. Econ. 18 (5)( 1994) 463 514.14 B.-Å. Lundvall, S. Borrás, The Globalising Learning Economy:

Proposed Standard practice for Surveys on Research and Experimental development, OECD, Paris, 2002.25 D. E. Stokes, Pasteur's Quadrant:

and complementing these with information from future-oriented stakeholder surveys, the Technology barometer can be regarded as a new tool for managing strategic investments in R&d,

Clauset 21 for instance, provides a useful survey article on the random hierarchical graph. We see to complement the technical literature with the following interpretive and example-oriented discussion of the methodology.

The goal in doing this survey is neither to validate the use of the model,

composite indicators or survey based studies providing comparisons in a wide range of fields like economy, society, education, innovation system, or sustainable development.

as well as a future-oriented survey exploring future visions of relevant national actors like industries, policy-makers and politicians, research community and future generations,

and second, to a technology barometer based on a survey study of the visions and attitudes of relevant national key actor and interest groups.

whereas the forward-looking survey enquires and identifies possible areas for development activities in national innovation policy in the future.

the technology barometer includes a forward-looking survey of future expectations of relevant target groups. The survey is based on a questionnaire directed to four relevant target groups,

i e. the members of the Finnish association of graduate engineers TEK, young people studying at the senior secondary school level, political decision-makers and business decision-makers.

The information obtained from the survey is analyzed and interpret interpreted in parallel with the results of indicator-based comparisons.

The combination of the indicator-based comparative study and the future-oriented survey into one instrument creates a unique platform for the further analyses of the economic

as clearly expressed in the questionnaire survey, ties in with this. Judging by the indicators of the next phase, knowledge society,

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 3. 2. Survey study of future visions In addition to indicator-based comparison the technology barometer instrument includes a survey about people's expectations regarding the future development trends.

and whether any improvement or deterioration has taken place (the x axis) in comparison to the previous survey.

such as Eurostat surveys, were included in order to ensure consistency, and to allow later comparisons between different countries and surveys.

The exact questions and formulations used can be found in the full barometer report 7. The purpose of the survey is to cast light onto the respondents'valuations regarding technology, perception about current state of affairs,

as well as their expectations for the foreseeable future. By doing this, the survey complements and diversifies the results of the indicator study by allowing the mutual comparison of the four respondent groups'views

and results of indicator study obtained in 2005 and 2007. Standard statistical practices such as the Mann Whitney U test, were applied to analyze the results.

The fourth part in the survey sets out assessments of sustainable development focusing on environmental threats the state of the environment,

the survey supplements the barometer by providing a forwardloookin element to complete the overall view.

As the results of survey study indicate, the identification of innovation is not a straightforward process for the businesses involved.

and this was indicated also in results of survey study. However, new kinds of challenges were also emerging in the questionnaire study,

allowing the identification of changes occurred in the course of time both in indicator study as well as in survey study.

and survey studies of technology barometer. The further development of barometer to respond to the above mentioned challenges is already in process.

of water Biological diversity 4. Survey, questionnaire results 4. 1. Material 4. 2. Competence and knowledge generation 4. 2. 1. Prospects regarding techno-scientific competence 4. 2. 2

The results from this survey, expert interviews and a set of criteria were supposed to be inputs to select interesting candidates for BMBF relating to the targets 1) and 2) of the process. 3. 3. The online survey Intentionally

The selection of the topics for the survey were not all topics regarded as relevant in general those topics,

which are worked already currently out intensively were not in the focus of the survey. The second page of the online survey was shown

The last part of the survey concerned the single research questions in the areas. Again it was asked for a judgement on a fivestteplikert scale (from very important to unimportant.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 For the survey, in September 2008 altogether 19.365 persons from German companies, academia, associations and single persons (consultants or persons

and the survey was finished on October 22, 2008. The survey was accessed via the code we sent to the participants.

If someone else wanted to participate, it was necessary to contact the project office to receive a new code. 2659 persons filled in one of the questionnaires,

On the basis of the survey, topics that will no longer be on the research agenda in 10 years'time,

Fig. 4. Principle of the survey design (questionnaire concept. 1192 K. Cuhls et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 3. 4. Some results In the end, eight new future fields (broader fields) with a different perspective as well as single future topics in all 20

Nevertheless, because of the workshops, interviews and survey, it was known in the research scene. It was very important to include BMBF from the start

National Institute of Science and Technology policy (NISTEP (Ed.),Kagakugijutsu no chûchôki hatten ni kakawaru fukanteki yosoku chôsa (The 8th Science and Technology foresight Survey Future science and Technology

National Institute of Science and Technology policy (NISTEP (Ed.),Kyûsoku ni hattenshitsutsu aru kenkyû ryûiki chôsa (The 8th Science and Technology foresight Survey Study on Rapidlydevellopin Research area

National Institute of Science and Technology policy (NISTEP (Ed.),Kagakugijutsu no chûchôki hatten ni kakawaru fukanteki yosoku chôsa (The 8th Science and Technology foresight Survey, Needs Survey

Nevertheless, the work included seems to provide a reasonable survey of the main themes in the literature.

citizen juries and mass surveys but these have attracted a small set of people and none of the procedures is free of the dominance of‘experts'.

and survey work confirmed the appropriateness of the separation. However, there were also some discrepancies that led to the idea of a bifurcation above the Belonger level,

Public opinion surveys based on: Telephone surveys The Internet Postal surveys Public meetings Public enquiries Invited workshops Interactive television Videoconferencing Electronic meetings or surveys based on:

The Internet including VOIP Asynchronous e-mail Telephone conferencing Consensus conferences Social accounting and auditing. Behavioural traits (see the VALS 1 hierarchy) will have marked a influence on

5 but their full assessment was undertaken through an online questionnaire survey of much of the Luxembourg research landscape (around 300 participants), Online Questionnaire Young Res.

The results of this survey were fed then into an Exploratoryworkshop (EWS), where researchers and research users were brought together in broad S&t area groupings for the first time to discuss

Furthermore, the initiative has been welcomed broadly by the research communiit (in a survey of participants at the EWS,

In September 2005, the municipal administration conducted a survey measuring their inhabitants'satisfaction with the community services provided.

The results of the survey showed an overall satisfying result, except for one group of inhabitants, young people between 14 and 19 years of age.

According to the survey this social group was satisfied least with communal offers for social and cultural engagement.

adding survey data and material from other sources. These future pictures were presented then in a workshop with communal and cultural organisations to discuss which of these were most desirable.

L. M. Galitsky, W. M. Pottenger, S. Roy, D. J. Phelps, A survey of emerging trend detection in textual data mining, in:

M. W. Berry (Ed.),Survey of Text mining: Clustering, Classification, and Retrieval, Springer, New york, 2004, pp. 185 224.11 See http://www. kdnuggets. com/.12 C. Chen, Mapping Scientific Frontiers:

Third, results from the internet surveys were made available to all panels which could thus monitor what topics the other panels were considering

In this survey more than 95%of the respondents9 indicated that the foresight process had been rewarding to them (in the sense that responded with a 5,

roadmapping, surveys and creative methods are used widely. Key Foresight concepts such as‘‘vision''that were used previously in a rather broad and all encompassing manner have been deconstructed

surveys and Delphi studies are reviewed in the light of experience. An important finding in relation to the interest of this paper is that a simple transfer of the methodologies to identify emerging science

Known as the market survey or technical dialogue, this stage takes place priori to the procurement process.

and a survey was launched to opinion-formers leaders in business, government, media, NGOS and academia.

and by commissioning a survey that is consulting leaders in governments, business NGOS and the academic sector.

/visions/scenarios/roadmaps/and/or action recommendations Reports on desktop surveys Background reports for focused workshops Reports on the results of SWOT/scenario/roadmap/action Integrative reports

held oral evidence sessions and workshops (aiming to include key stakeholders) and elicited public views via survey research and qualitative workshop methodologies.

''This Big Picture Survey (BPS) was designed primarily to address this concern. It has been structured to allow the Conference attendees, mainly the organizers and practitioners of Foresight,

discontinuities and weak signals likely to shape the future through the Big Picture Survey. The survey was launched 6 months prior to the Conference.

More than 250 responses were submitted by the Conference date. The results collected were synthesised and presented back to the attendees in a plenary presentation by the authors.

The paper then presents the rationales of conducting the Big Picture Survey (BPS presents its methodology and discusses the results of the survey in a greater extent. 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

All rights reserved.**Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: ozcan. saritas@manchester. ac. uk (O. Saritas), jack. smith@drdc-rddc. gc. ca (J. E. Smith.

The originators of this survey used the responses to lead a plenary discussion at the 2008 FTA Conference,

an open-ended survey with compilation, grouping responses, and a general analysis of the five areas.

For this purpose, looking at the survey results we suggested a STEEP (Social-Cultural, Science & Technology, Energy, Ecology and Economy,

Then, in the third section, the survey methodology and method of analysis are described. The fourth section presents the respondents'profile summary with a set of descriptive statistics including (i) the country of residence (

because it was considered that a clear definition of the terms supported with examples would help the participants in completing the survey, particularly those with less Foresight experience,

Subsequently in conducting the survey it was nevertheless still evident that at least perceptually on the part of many respondents overlap exists,

while clearly valid, were deemed too complicated for purposes of the survey. Mega-trends Trends come in different sizes.

so for this survey it will not be possible to rigorously provide a single definition that fits all situations so the following examples are useful to guide those seeking to imagine what could shock the systems of incremental change.

/O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 297 3. Big Picture Survey 3. 1. Motivation and approach Up until the Future-oriented technology analysis

As a result, the Big Picture Survey was designed and implemented with the following key premises:

2. Building on a survey of FTA Conference attendees-experts about critical trends, drivers, shocks-wildcards, discontinuities and weak signals, new insights can be gained about the state of Foresight and future uncertainties,

which should be useful to the community. 3. 1. 1. The structure of the survey The survey consisted of two main parts.

Data set Total surveys submitted: 293; substantive completion: 106 (about 50%of FTA Conference attendees;

Results can serve as baseline for a more quantitative-reactive survey next year likely generating a higher return rate requiring less time to formulate original ideas. 3. 2. Analysis of the results 3. 2. 1. Descriptive statistics

The trends obtained from the survey were mapped on the STEEP map for the Domains of Interest.

We believe that this strong contribution from the more experienced contributors supports the basic assumption behind the survey that such a gathering of experts would constitute a uniquely defined relevant cohort worthy of sampling

Suggest the possibility of probing deeper in subsequent surveys to extract a more complete picture of the provocative edge.

These differences suggest some further survey or focus group opportunities to probe the differences in perception of discontinuities. 3. 2. 5. 3. Joint assessment of Foresight affiliation and discontinuities.

3. 2. 6. Weak signals The radar diagram below (Fig. 12) shows the orientations of the 171 weak signals identified by the respondents of the Big Picture Survey.

Also worthy of deeper probing in subsequent surveys. Fig. 13 shows the frequency distribution of weak signals identified by the survey respondents and the most widely cited ones.

J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 310 4. Conclusions and implications on policy and strategy The following implications from the outputs of the Big Picture Survey

Further assessment of survey variables has indicated that there are no dramatic surprises, but there seem to be emerging several instances of avenues that could benefit from further discussion,

focus groups or another survey that invites respondents to elaborate upon their choices. The results reveal that the data is both useful and quite insightful and diverse.

More data and analysis will be required to fully develop the potential of this survey but an excellent base now exists,

and insights that can be used to guide future Foresight work and additional FTA surveys of this type or building upon this base.

Our primary conclusion is that it will be very useful to repeat the survey with FTA 2010 if possible,

Acknowledgement We are grateful to our colleague Phd researcher Ms. Graciela Sainz de la Fuente for her valuable contribution to the analysis of the Big Picture Survey data.

online survey targeted for expert group (with Webropol survey software) Inviting the expert group to the process

online survey targeted for expert group (with Webropol survey software) Testing and specifying the development paths constructed in the first futures workshop:

These surveys constitute adequate tools to collect information and to provide a range of different ideas based on which scenarios can afterwards be designed and presented.

case studies and surveys as the most commonly used approaches (Blind, 2006), FTA would add to this methodological list other approaches that could render the evaluation of current laws,

surveys and foresight studies Delphi methodology and scenarios) that are adequate to conduct regulatory foresight, and which allow the identification of future fields for regulatory policy intervention.

how and why a particular survey question (or group of questions) was constructed can influence the outcome markedly.

Descriptive modelling Logical positivist Empiricist Field studies Field experiments Structured interviewing Surveys Prototyping Physical modelling Laboratory experimentation Interpretive Action research Case studies Historical analysis

this is the basis for most survey research interpretive perspective includes the context of the phenomenon as part of the object of study.

and assumes that there is an objective reality that can be detected people's perceptions of object reality relates to surveys,

and external validity (e g. surveys provide reliable data distributions but their validity in actually measuring constructs is suspect).

and all models and surveys are, to an extent, representations of the opinions and beliefs of their designers (4) The commonly believed metaphors of foresight,

Pitfalls and lessons from a historical survey. Futures 32, no. 9/10: 867 85. Gordon, T. J.,J. C. Glenn,

A survey. California Management Review 4, no. 2: 139 60. Rollwagen, I.,J. Hofmann, and S. Schneider. 2008.

which was the desktop survey, the boundaries of the technological field were defined. The second phase, the SWOT analysis, identified trends in the national ICT business and research environment in the four Nordic countries.

Survey of earlier national research policy Where funding programs are considered as an element of future research policy it is important to gain an overview of previous funding activities in relevant subject areas as well as lessons learnt.

Hence, step 5 of a PAGE 24 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 strategic dialog might be a survey of earlier national funding activities and a gap analysis between those activities and the potential support

In a second phase, a survey of previous funding programs showed a need for initiatives to exploit the potential of‘‘Produzierenkonsumieren 2. 0

B survey methodologies; VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 43 B expert panels; B data analysis;

This foresight methodology consisted of various expert techniques (surveys interviews, workshops), and analytical research. All in all, 50 in depth interviews, two expert surveys and over 20 workshops were held to prepare this national foresight.

More than 300 experts from the S&t and business communities, as well as government officials, took part in the exercise.

but the results of FS2 showed (on the basis of the expert survey) that the Russian management system in the natural resources area needed to be much more effective

National Institute of Science and Technology policy (2010),‘The 9th Science and Technology foresight Survey contribution of science and technology to future society.

while the procedure follows an anonymous, multi-stage communication process based on several survey rounds (Turoff,

I Basic information for scanned foresight reports from Japan, South korea and China Japan South korea China Report Title The 8th Science and Technology foresight Survey Delphi Analysis Prospect of future society

a survey'',Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 28 No. 4, pp. 1661-707. Grupp, H. and Linstone, H. A. 1999),‘National technology foresight activities around the globe:

Nugroho and Saritas 42 propose a framework for this, building on online foresight survey data, and by pointing at benefits in the various phases of a foresight process:

Available at http://www. pik-potsdam. de/luedeke/lit/springer12 ch4. pdf. Last accessed July 2012.65 A j. Reiss, Stuff and nonsense about social surveys and participant observation, in:

Clustering of time series data a survey, Pattern Recog. 38 (2005) 1857 1874.35 J. H. Kwakkel, W. E. Walker, V. A w. J. Marchau

but also the kinds of processes expanded from studies based on expert surveys to processes involving more stakeholders (such as NGOS and citizens).

56 experts participated in the survey. The majority of the participants were researchers, consultants, and inventors but a couple of people fromindustry and two policy-makers also took part.

one fromthe USA and two from Russia answered the survey. The vision based survey was received very positively by the responding experts.

The INFU visions generated high interest in the project and in further interaction and participation.

By adding qualitative information to the results of the survey, a valid interpretation of the results was ensured.

In addition to the assessments given in the survey the experts were asked to point out missing aspects and to suggest a clustering of the visions.

Both interviews and survey were referring directly to the weak signals without introducing any assumptions on the socioeconomic context or causalities among the respective developments.

a very high response rate was achieved (only about 40 experts were asked to participate in the survey

survey. 457 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 Fig. 4. Visualisation of all INFU visions. 458 E. Schirrmeister,

Vision 18 Vision 7 Vision 16 Vision 17 Vision 9 Vision 15 Fig. 5. Clarity of INFU visions assessed in the survey (n=56).

7 Vision 17 Vision 3 Vision 18 Vision 19 Fig. 6. Degree of novelty of INFU visions assessed in the survey (n=56). 459 E. Schirrmeister

The willingness of experts to engage with the survey was enhanced greatly as respondents appreciated the thought provoking nature of the amplifications

not only explicitly in the interviews but also in the written feedback included in the survey. Furthermore the high number of people watching the trailer in the internet can be interpreted as an appreciation of the visualisation.

a wide range of opinions and observations is recruited often through interviews or surveys. In the INFU project thiswas done by a literature reviewand screening forweak signals by the project team as described above.

From all reactions collected on the 19 visions through the survey and the interviews the project team identified eight critical issues that seemed to have special potential for changing today's innovation patterns.

not only proved to be very helpful during the survey but also allowed the spreading of information, the extension of the expert network and the integration of very diverse perspectives.

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