Problem

Complex problem (6)
Problem (350)
Problem analysis (4)
Problem-solving (25)

Synopsis: Problem: Problem:

One problem, which was highlighted, was the tendency to compensate for difficulty in handling combined techniques by narrowing the scope of the study

their orientation and the problems associated with their understanding of assumptions used in FTA and how to interpret

manipulation techniques and related problems and threats. The issue of how to make available the information being created in FTA EXERCISES brought out diverse opinions varying from concerns with intellectual property rights and exploitation of the resources to exponents of open source approaches to such information.

This coherence is facilitated, for instance, by shared problem perceptions and visions. But, as we will argue in the next section,

but in particular also decisionmakker from research, industry, policy-making and society, a shared understanding of current problems, goals and development options is expected to emerge among those actors that have an important role to play in shaping the future.

i e. the main question or problem that the addressee of an exercise would like to have tackled. In government-led exercises

A problem with that, however, is that some participants may get the fallacious impression that the two variables of the cross are the only independent ones. 3. 2. 4. Phase 3:

Iterative de/recomposition contributes to scalability by allowing i) the decomposition of complex problems into smaller manageable sub-problems for subsequent analysis and ii) the recomposition of results from these analyses through processes of interpretative synthesis. In the Woodwisdom-Net,

Initially, RPM has been developed for project portfolio selection problems in settings where incomplete information about criterion weights

like the environment or in services 46.3 In contrast to the other obstacles, like technical or cost problems,

This raises in general no problems for Delphi studies focusing on regulatory issues since the time frame of such studies should not be much more than ten years.

The problem is how to guarantee for the detection of strategic answers, e g. by industry respondents trying to avoid

The FP6-NEST‘ATBEST'project addressed this problem in a workshop with practitioners but at a too general level. 7 3 We note in passing that‘roadmaps'in the public sector often seem to be no more than outlooks on the future of a field or sector,

'and‘patterns'for finding solutions to selected technological problems, based on selected principles derived from natural sciences and on selected material technology().

TUTS Working paper 2005.43 J. H. Fujimura, Constructing‘Doable'Problems in Cancer Research: Articulating Alignment, Soc.

technology policy and innovation studies with a final thesis focusing on cosmonautics research in the former Soviet union with field research undertaken at the Cosmonaut Training Centre (Star City) and the Institute of Biomedical Problems, Moscow.

while also having to tackle problems of legitimacy, accountability and implementation. Thus the author concludes that in those cases where these elements are most important,

This problem obviously cannot be solved here. 28 In launching the discussion on the priorities for the new generation of cohesion policy programmes,

and concerns through the definition of problems and boundaries that must be respected. Douglas Robinson presents in his paper

Relevant research has approached the problem of forecasting radical technological change with methods for supporting analysis for both decomposition and integration of new technologies.

Likewise, in terms of knowledge production, researchers form multi-disciplinary teams devoted to specific problems and specific contexts 12.

reduction of uncertainties was the guiding principle for structuring the decision problem, we will propose a foresight based approach that allows for considering a maximum range of uncertainties.

Framing a strong exploratory approach to strategic planning Based on these experiences, we may now frame the problem of informing strategic infrastructure planning by foresight as follows:

and the utilization of selected assessments'results. 3. The Regional infrastructure foresight method In view of this specific problem constellation and based on the theoretical arguments introduced above,

potential problems with quality control and the risk of creating new strong path dependencies. In the downturn scenario, assessment results were rather antagonistic.

However, it had been formulated as a vague vision that resulted mainly from a technical analysis of the current infrastructure components (unresolved problems in water quality

One consequence was departed that decision makers from their initially strong position that only one big technical system was able to solve all future problems in the region.

In particular, it was stated by the participants that they faced similar decision problems in other domains of (inter-)communal services.

problems, causes, cures, Environ. Plan. B 34 (2007) 578 597.5 D. Dominguez, B. Truffer, W. Gujer, Tackling uncertainty in infrastructure sectors through strategic planning.

and problem-driven approaches are taken 1. It is stressed also that it is important to see technology as part of a whole technological and societal system 11.

INNORISK project aims at applying Back-pocket roadmap 30 (also called Agile Roadmap), SWOT analysis 31,32 and IBM's Signpost methodology tools together with Potential Problem/Opportunity (Risk analysis

(e) Ways to improve understanding of psychological factors that lead to irrational decisions (f) Appropriate levels of aggregation in investigation of forecasting problems.

The problem of planning and management of systems operating in the chaotic regime is a frontier of great importance to our field.

This assumption moves us into the realm of psychology. 7. The assumption of reductionism There is an implicit assumption in some methods of futures research that reducing a problem to its elements improves the forecasts produced by the method.

We may have the feeling that by breaking down the problem into its elements we gain accuracy.

since many forecasting problems can be investigated at various levels of aggregation, what levels are appropriate?

For example, one problem of comparisons based on composite indicators is that they give a backward looking mirror perspective,

the technology barometer has proven to be capable of casting additional light on bottlenecks and problem areas within the national innovation environment in Finland.

Political decision-making takes place in an environment characterized by ambiguity of problems and a multitude of conflicting interests between different stakeholders,

Attainment (WHO) National Health care Systems Performance (King's Fund) Relative Intensity of Regional Problems (EC)

Additionally, central problems which hamper an intensifying of research could be chosen. Because from the first category list, only one problem could be chosen,

the possibility was given to add others and explain them. On this page, also different new research questions or tasks could be mentioned in an open field

which many persons ticked the problem acceptance. These are unaccepted the most research topics for the future.

or the problem of persons trying to save energy but behaving in a different way

This does not mean that these problems are solved already, but it does mean that science

Ranking problem: acceptance Number of persons Nuclear fuel lifecycle 94 Nuclear safety and security concepts 58 Energetic use of biomass/second generation 51 Influence on the behaviour

As a field of policy action it is characterized by a high degree of problem complexity and uncertainty about long-term future developments.

Problems often do not only unfold over several decades, but also cut across spatial scales which are influenced by a myriad of driving forces.

9. Ideally, scenario planning helps policy-makers making better sense of changes in their external environment, spotting early warning signals and refining perceptions of existing or emerging problems and corresponding problem-solving strategies 10.

i e. to recognize that there is a problem; 2. Policy issue-framing and agenda-setting; i e. to highlight the societal relevance of the problem and underline the need for a response from the political system;

3. Policy measure development, i e. to check for the strengths and weaknesses of different problem-solving strategies, make a final selection

rational logic of identifying a problem structure, shaping problem solutions and determining the solution that works best across a range of alternative futures.

In reality, policy deliberations are shaped oftentimes by power, specific interests and conflict constellations. Resulting decisions might appear irrational

leading to problems of lack of ownership and trust and a greater motivation to ignore

Problem Structuring Methods for Complexity, Uncertainty, and Conflict, Wiley, Chichester, UK, 1989.19 P. J. H. Schoemaker, Multiple scenario development:

At their core,‘situations'and CSH consider that problem definitions, proposals for improvement, and evaluations of outcomes depend on prior judgements about the relevant system.

Experiments such as the Futur programme 2 have revealed some of the problems that will have to be overcome for Foresight programmes to become inclusive.

or the attempts to deal with social problems through the procedures of science hang on the answers to questions that can be asked of science

(but not complex) matters 3. Situations with technical difficulty but that are amenable to non-expert study 4. Problems with technical difficulty,

While Daellenbach 15 refers to‘resolutions'of such problems, it should be remembered that systems thinking grew out of von Bertalanffy's recognition of the paucity of the reductionist approach to problem solving related to living systems.

In many ways CSH is a restatement of the cognitive aspects that have long been a central part of systems thinking that recognises that all problem definitions, proposals for improvement,

However, the term‘problem'should be replaced by‘situation'with all that implies. CSH like Foresight, differs from the deductive procedures of applied science that are concerned with well defined problems,

by attempting to deal with soft and ill-defined situations. Critical thinking is then reflexive allowing debate about alternative assumptions.

and anticipation of possible problems in the innovation journey increase these chances of success. 12 To this end,

When problems begin to occur with certain products secondary effects, lack of regulation means it's difficult to find who is liable.

Del Stark (ENTA) in a meeting in Brussels 37 pointed out that trade secrets in manufacturing would be a problem for voluntary reporting of use

whether nano is the problem or not. The uncertainty is the issue. In the field of medical diagnostics, nano-enabled chips were beginning to be integrated into clinical practice

When problems begin to occur with certain products (secondary effects), the lack of regulation means it is difficult to find who is liable.

characterised by discipline-oriented basic science in universities, to a new form (Mode 2), characterised by problem-driven, application-oriented and trans-disciplinary research taking place partly outside universities

or around problems (Johnson and Jacobsson 2001). The same type of rationale is used often also for strategy processes in research councils and research programmes.

This problem might be mitigated by adapting language to fit the traditions of the research arena.

Such positioning can also lead to certain implementation problems, as institutions are free to ignore priorities and recommendations,

Proposing this broad perspective rightly anticipated problems that would arise with any approach that sought only to identify thematic priorities without taking into account structural factors.

Despite its apparent elegance, there were problems with this schema. To begin with, the‘long list'was prepared by the Phase 1 consultants,

An even more fundamental problem lay with the widening of the exercise's scope to include identification of‘national'priorities

The extent of this problem became apparent only near the end of the exercise when the MCHER requested the FNR to provide a shorter list of priorities to the 18 presented by the FNR Board.

A couple of problems were encountered, however: first, the number of priority research domains at 18 went beyond the expectations of the MCHER,

Nevertheless, despite these problems, the exercise is viewed widely as a success . Although a lot of difficulties were encountered, for example,

In fact, a significant problem lay with the latter despite its respectable response rate, it was answered still only by a few hundred people across all thematic areas,

Thus, a shared understanding of problems, goals and development options can be expected to emerge among those actors that have an important role to play in shaping the future.

This interest is fuelled by the recognition that there is a‘translation problem'appareen in foresight approaches that predominantly rely on broad participatory processes, namely the translation of shared collective problem perceptions and visions into actual decisions of individuua actors and organisations.

This case illustrates thus not only challenges of inclusive foresight taken up by Loveridge and Street (2005) but also much wider problems regarding good governance

21 They argue that one of the problems municipal planning is confronted with is assumed the frequently existence of universal values

According tovoß and Kemp (2006,4) reflexive governance‘refers to the problem of shaping societal development in the light of the reflexivity of steering strategies the phenomenon that thinking

and through preparedness to address global problems. It was against this history that the third conference from

This is not per se a problem as nano-research comprises a heterogeneous set of research activities

and what problems organizations typically run into when setting up scanning systems. D 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

and to speculate on the future role for foresight in research and innovation policy. 2. The problem with priorities...

At the level of the firm there are problems of short-term and reactive thinking caused by a preoccupation with immediate business problems

Within the scientific system an inability to configure work around interdisciplinary problems and to manage the interfaces with business

or gods (and even then there are many problems and paradoxes to confront)? 1 Surely this was one of the reasons for the widespread aversion to the term‘‘futurology

and on ways of thinking about problem situations. Since FTA involves engaging with stakeholders or at least with the decision-makers that the exercise is intended to inform the scope of knowledge management (KM) has to extend 1 The application of evolutionary theory within theology has led to notions of an‘‘evolving god''(or gods) too,

Thus the FTA field itself resembles many of the challenging problems, which are the subject of FTA analysis. It is typical for decision-making about S&t-related issues to require intelligence that extends well beyond

issues where S&t‘‘solutions''to widely shared problems may well be contentious (geoengineering and other technological solutions to the climate change crisis as opposed to change in lifestyle and corporate practice);

Individual actors in FTA organise information in ways that are relevant to their purposes practical problems, conceptual challenges,()TD$FIG Knowledge Information Knowledge Socialisation:

The problems arise when participants in, and users of, FTA EXERCISES are confronted with the different methods

and seen problems as mainly barriers and roadblocks needing to be overcome. SWAMI took a more critical approach to the social, economic, legal, technological and ethical implications surrounding such issues as privacy, control of information, and identity.

problems and possibilities of prediction, Futures 21 (2)( 1999) 115 135.3 A l. Porter, et al. Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology futures analysis:

It is as well to remember Wittgenstein's claim that‘methods pass the problem situation by.'

Each company can identify the particular set of societal problems that it is equipped best to help resolve and from

40 H. Z. Evan, Seminar at Economic Commission of Europe, Warsaw, 1973.41 F. Davitaya, Changes in the Atmosphere and Some Problems of its Protection, in Society and the Environment:

as well as persistent problems or trends''(http://horizonscanning. defra. gov. uk last visited on March 14, 2009.

the paper also draws attention to the problems and challenges that this entails, indicating paths for future research.

A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS for transport planning Jens Schippl and Torsten Fleischer Abstract Purpose As in other socio-technical fields, future-oriented technology analysis (FTA METHODS are used in transport planning

In this paper, a transparent and problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS is suggested. It aims at supporting an appropriate usage of FTA METHODS in planning processes.

This sets the basis for the problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS. Key criteria for the categorisation of methods are their abilities in dealing with different types of missing knowledge.

It juxtaposes a problem typology and a typology of methods Keywords FTA METHODS, Transport planning, Risks, Uncertainties, Unintended effects, Uncertainty management,

and uncertainties that could lead to unintended effects. 2. The problem: risks and uncertainties Uncertainty and risk are only in very rare cases a consideration in transportation planning and transportation policy decision making.

VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 283 Risk, uncertainties and unintended effects are obviously a problem for transport planning.

Therefore, a problem-oriented approach is required. Problems linked to missing or incomplete knowledge in transport panning need to be addressed.

Although, from a theoretical perspective, it makes sense to state that any intervention may have catastrophic unforeseen consequences,

It is labelled problem-oriented since it aims at tackling the problem of unintended effects of policy interventions,

which is rooted often in the knowledge-base of decision making 1. 3. The methods:‘‘‘‘structurally open''versus‘‘structurally closed''The transport system is embedded in the broader social, economic and environmental systems.

problems of missing knowledge can be clustered in these categories. This sets the basis for the problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS which was introduced above.

In this paper, FTA METHODS were discussed in relation to the concepts‘‘structurally open''and‘‘structurally closed''.''The key argument is closed that methods are rather usable in situations where the system under consideration can reliably be described

Such a problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS supports a better understanding of the potentials of different methods.

The approach is not solving problems such as inaccuracy in data; it does not provide directly for new knowledge;

even if applied properly, many problems will remain; the future is and will remain uncertain. However, as it was pointed out in the beginning of this paper,

Note 1. Problem orientation is used here in a rather straightforward way: providing orientation knowledge for solving problems in the transport sector.

However, a broad range of literature exists, dealing with problem-oriented transdisciplinary research (see for Hessels and van Lente, 2008 for a critical review) in greater depth.

It is linked often to the concept of‘‘Mode 2''knowledge production (see Gibbons et al. 1994). ) The structurally open/structurally closed approach (see chapter 3) could be discussed within this context

B not trying to solve problems using the same frame they emerged from; B generating new solutions to issues;

Policy delivery Objectives Objectives Objectives Discover new policy problems or opportunities Identify policy options Implement policy Scope

Table III Implementation of promoting variation in policy making Policy direction Policy design Policy delivery Discover new policy problems

long-term problems where trend-breaking futures are required: they call for creative and radical solutions (Hickman and Banister, 2007, p. 378.

has no effect on the global problem; therefore it does not make sense to burden oneself with trying), scattered community structure, motoring as every man's right,

This case shows some of the problems caused by connections to the decision making apparatus. Firstly,

The authors address some problems in order to actually make the nonvolatile memories. Also, they state that:

In 2002, James Heath's group at the University of California (Los angeles) reported that guiding the growth with an electric field could solve the problem of growing straight nanotubes 25.

This scientific result solved the problem of growing straight nanotubes. Deposition of nanotubes into a parallel array (as is needed to create the hybrid solution) can be done in multiple ways.

These scientific results solved the problem of deposition of the nanotubes onto a substrate. The scientific results,

It is possible that a solution for a particular problem for one application can also be a solution for another application.

An example is the problem that when nanotubes are grown, it is until now impossible to determine the electronic character (metallic or semiconductor) beforehand.

This is a problem, because often you need specific characteristics of the nanotubes in order to get a working application.

and start to work on solving the problems at R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1105 hand.

Typical problems addressed here were or are still the growth of straight nanotubes, precise deposition of the nanotubes on the substrate,

Because not all problems were solved over the last years, Nantero adapted a (proprietary) hybrid solution that allows for some errors,

So, over the last few years some problems were solved and others were overcome by adapting the design.

But, in the same period also the agenda changed from working on detailed technical problems (aiming at a prototype) towards scaling

However, one of the problems cannot be influenced by Nantero, as stated in May 2003 28:

Nanotubes used in nonvolatile memories Step by step the problems around producing predetermined nanotubes and applying them for nonvolatile memories are solved (straight growth and deposition).

Nanotubes in electronic devices More research groups work on similar problems related to nanotube applications Society Technological field (Research group Basic research Market Fig. 8. Emerging irreversibilities located within the three-level framework.

economic, environmental and political problems in a territory. Second, foresight cannot impose consensus when there are deep disagreements between territorial stakeholders.

Third, foresight is not a quick remedy for urgent problems because it requires long analyses that do not produce immediate results.

Many second homes will be abandoned by their owners because of maintenance problems, and they will be demolished either or recycled for other urban uses.

the paper also draws attention to the problems and challenges that this entails, indicating paths for future research.

integrated picture and multiple perspectives on the hard problems we are facing''(Helbing, 2011). As Helbing (2011) explains,

enabling officers to focus their efforts in problem areas, armed with real-time information, accurate intelligence, rapid deployment of resources, individual accountability,

what is known in foresight as the‘‘Zeitgeist Problem,''that is, ‘‘the tendency to be captive to the'spirit of times

'and to assume that tomorrow's problems and visions will be very much the same as today's''(Rader and Porter, 2008).

which law can be enforced. 4. 2 Problems and challenges of using FTA in law. Future research The introduction of FTA TOOLS and techniques to Law,

Nevertheless, it is important to bear in mind that the application of fta to Law also carries a serious of problems and difficulties.

The following section summarises some of the most pressing challenges and problems that the interaction between FTA and Law may bring about,

The problem we face with such proposal is how to exactly measure the performance and degree of success/failure of a given law.

This problem, moreover, may also affect the application of fta to legal research. In this particular, the question one encounters is how to measure the quality and the appropriateness of the legal research based on a specific FTA (determining, for instance,

in addition, a problem of FTA per se). The assessed quality of an FTA-based law or research is vital for the consolidation and continuity of this approach,

The problem we here face is the one of having foresight used as a lobbying instrument

there are important problems and challenges regarding the application of fta to Law that must be taken into account.

and technological trends in the area of nanotechnology and its implications is confronted with the problem that most scientific endeavours of nanotechnology can be allocated to basic research

In this paper we propose to adapt the well known tool droadmappingt to contribute to the solution of this problem.

and technological risks, overcoming problems of legitimacy and technology conflicts. It produces knowledge, orientation and procedures to deal with societal challenges in coping with technology.

the dealing with the integration problem, complex cause/effect-relations and the inclusion of extra-scientific communicattio already have been practised for a long time.

It is no exaggeration to say that the known methodological problems of technology assessment come to a head here. 3. Nanotechnology Nanotechnology is among the most prominent emerging technologies,

This problem-oriented approach may have been one of the reasons for a further increase in the number of submitted abstracts and participants.

in principle, be found in what Slaughter (2008) calls‘problem-oriented'futures (i e. conventional thinking), and thus requires a new approach making use of integral ideas.

Loveridge and Saritas align with Linestone in that they point to the problem of ignorance, and the need to admit it.

which formal methods and techniques play a subsidiary role following Wittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'.

and problem definition to occur within this ontology. Activities, thus, can be associated with an underlyyin thought community (Fleck 1979), community of practice (Brownand Duguid 1991;

Here Nishida's (1987) analysis of the problems of objectificcation underlying the more recent work of Shimitzu and Nonaka (Nonaka, Toyama,

foresight efforts therefore could more appropriately be located around the problem of articulating natural systems, instead of formulating predictive models.

In other words, the focus of future-oriented analysis should be learning, problem redefinition, and innovative construction of new empirically relevant categories, not predictive modelling.

An example here is the problem of formulating‘grand societal challenges'.'Typically, such societal challenges are based on extrapolations of historical trends

which formal methods/techniques play a subsidiary role followingwittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'.

However, Wittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'needs to be constantly in mind to prevent any FTA becoming simply an exercise in technique manipulation that prevents any useful outcome.

Foresight exercises provide policy with better problem definitions, ensuring more involvement of stakeholders and help to implement the policy (Harper et al. 2008).

he used the example of false rumours about solvency problems that brought a bank in real trouble.

They thus face problems that are known not fully yet, and are uncertain about their future rivals in the future battlefields (Williams and Sorensen 2002).

The starting idea that hydrogen is a sustainable and green solution to the mobility problem in London remained uncontested until stations for hydrogen were to be implemented.

Developing collaborative solutions to the aging aircraft avionics problem through technology roadmapping. Lockheed-martin JS01 (June:

where the recent financial and economic crisis has exacerbated structural problems of global overcapacity. In such a context, BASF's strategic foresight approach to investigating the evolution

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