Foresight demands thatwittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'be in mind constantly.
Modularisation allows one to form a tailored‘response chain'to answer different kinds of research and development problems (see, e g.
In addition, a general problem with these kinds of exercises is that, even though the produced knowledge could be highly relevant,
The world faces a number of complex problems, such as climate change and population problems, and each country also has its own specific issues, for example rapid aging of the population or economic stagnation.
value-adding and market creation 10-G Unpopularity of science and engineering, human resource problem,
and their action in anticipation of potential research policy changes triggered by the dialogue (such as new funding programs) This can be a problem
Language problems and lack of trust can also become issues that require the intervention of an‘‘interpreter''and the conscious facilitation of cooperation leading to agreement on binding rules for all parties.
and 2. a more explicitly problem or impact-oriented approach. In the European union as in many other parts of the world research, technology and innovation policies and programmes have adopted, to a large extent,
an instrumental expectation that investments will address particular problem areas and boost economic competitiveness. It could be argued that the main narrative of EU Research,
The second example given in Table V developing enabling mechanisms and absorptive capacities for RTDI does not carry the same narrative of a fundamental problem facing Europe and the wider world.
Although this may not appear a‘‘conventional''research and innovation problem, it emerged as a grand challenge reflecting key uncertainties of senior decision-makers operating in a small state as it adapted to changing external conditions in economics and governance.
although problems or challenges can be contested, there is a relatively strong consensus on the definition of several of them especially energy, climate change, demographics, etc.
This is not a conventional innovation problem yet was regarded still as a national challenge in its broadest sense.
The prospects and problems of the natural resources sector constitute a major section in most national science and technology foresight studies.
which given the weak legal system engenders many problems. In particular, these include problems with the efficient utilisation of natural resources, environmental protection,
and management of the natural resources sector. Russian companies that are active in the natural resources sector routinely display high emissions figures several times higher than in other countries.
The only efficient way to deal with these and many other problems, and to respond to these challenges,
and help to deal with the most acute social problems. The analysis of these three Foresight projects is presented below.
two top scores) Technology area 1 Technologies for accelerated and efficient recovery of damaged lands, landscapes and biodiversity 97.6 2019 Contributing to dealing with social problems (76.3
and recycling of consumer and industrial waste 96.7 2016 Contributing to dealing with social problems (79.5 percent) Improving positions on international markets (40.9 percent) Technologies for processing
and affected area) 96.1 2014 Contributing to dealing with social problems (73.8 percent) Improving positions on international markets (47 5 percent) Technologies for forecasting the state of the lithosphere
oil-and gas-saturated zones 95.7 2018 Improving positions on international markets (78.1 percent) Contributing to dealing with social problems (25 percent) Technologies for environmentally safe mining
and biomaterials 94.0 2018 Contributing to dealing with social problems (82.6 percent) Improving positions on international markets (50 percent) Technologies for processing
‘‘Innovation priorities''in the above study were considered to be major activities in the Russian natural resources sector's management system that would contribute to achieving the RF S&t priorities and solving the main problems in the area.
The innovation priorities until 2025 for the development of the Russian natural resources sector was developed on the basis of identification of the most important problems and challenges regarding the natural resources sector's management system and necessary conditions for S&t development.
1. solving key problems; and 2. conditions for S&t priority realisation. VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 47 As a result of this study, the innovation priorities and corresponding tasks were formulated for each structural component of the natural resources sector.
and promote solving the key problems identified in the FS2 framework FS3 An identification of innovation priorities for the Russian management system in natural resources until 2030 The innovation priorities
which the relative evaluation of this influence is given. 5. Conclusion The problems and major challenges that the natural resources sector is facing,
the FS2 policy recommendations are impossible to realise without solving problems in the management system. The FS3 course identified the innovation priorities
and are made generally up of‘wicked problems'8 that are difficult or even impossible to solve by single actors.
The problem so far has been the superficial treatment of topics with little guidance of what might happen in the future.
It explores and visualises‘the architecture of problems 'and can offer a wider framework in which quantitative
and qualitative approaches could contribute to addressing the same problem. Further exploring synergies between FTA and strategic design could offer opportunities for more integrated use of methodologies. 7 3. 3. Full integration of qualitative and quantitative FTA A third type of exercise goes beyond the use of interfaces,
in order to resolve key problems. The most successful commercial biosensor technology surface plasmon resonance does not have a very good limit of detection (LOD),
In this stage, a lot of challenging problems must be overcome, such as enhancement of gene array and protein array,
In technology and science GAS have been used as adaptive algorithms for solving practical problems and as computational models of natural evolutionary systems,
and are considered today a relatively mature computational tool for solving complex engineering problems, for which the term Modern Heuristics 36 was coined.
Although useful, these traditional methods are not free of problems. Goodwin and Wright 12, p. 355 argue that all the extant forecasting methods including the use of expert judgment, statistical forecasting,
The approach starts from a conceptualization of the decision problem and the identification of the key uncertainties.
1) the conceptualization of the problem,(2) the identification of uncertainties (and certainties), and (3) the development of an ensemble of models that allows generating many plausible scenarios.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 In order to explore the problem and the uncertainties of energy transitions,
or which aspects of a problem are important, are taken explicitly into account and assessed for their consequences. 5. Conclusions We have proposed an iterativemodel-based approach for developing adaptive policies under uncertainty.
Res. 128 (2001) 282 289.25 J. Dewey, The Public and its Problems, Holt and Company, New york, 1927.26 G. J. Busenberg, Learning in organizations and public policy, J
1998) 769 805.58 A. Ben-Tal, A. Nemirovski, Robust solutions of linear programming problems contaminated with uncertain data, Math.
In making policy or planning decisions about complex and uncertain problems, EMA can provide new knowledge,
In this section, a stylized version of this decision-making problem is explored. The purpose of EMA in this case is to help in the development of an adaptive plan for the long-term development of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol that is robust across the wide variety of uncertainties experienced by the airport. 3. 2. 1. Model
or problems with wind conditions. However, preparatory actions, such as land use reservations, designs for the runway, etc. are taken,
and in the type of problem being investigated. The first case showed how EMA can be combined with System Dynamics to investigate the types of behavior that can occur with respect to mineral and metal shortages.
Theoretically, the potential of EMA to FTA is its ability to cope with a multiplicity of deep and irreducible uncertainties in the analysis of decision-making problems
and in the process of developing robust strategies for addressing these problems. The cases presented and discussed have shown that EMA can be used to handle diverse types of uncertainties in combination with three quite distinct modeling approaches.
Uncertainty is recognized increasingly as being a major problem for the use of models in decision-making. The prime example being the role of uncertainty in relation to models used in the context of climate change debates.
for otherwise, the problem of incompletely taking into account uncertainty is being replaced by an information overload problem.
EMA addresses the problem of deep uncertainty by systematically exploring over the uncertainties, potentially resulting in an information overload.
causing shifts in problem perception and priority setting. One result of the above described complexity is a type of uncertainty about the future, an uncertainty
Some examples of national foresights are known to have experienced problems linked with a dominance of consensus see for instance 63.
But these can inhibit the understanding of the problems and the use of appropriate methods to their solution 47.
experts sometimes have a stake in the problem or solution discussed and stakeholders equally have their expertise.
The aim of the paper is to show what problems/challenges with regard to the innovation system have been addressed and
when nanotechnology risks was perceived first as problems and became the subject of global discussion among NGOS 54 and reinsurance companies 55.
Transformative priorities 4 that indicate the arenas for collective experimentation 5 with various solutions for societal problems are required.
Solving social problems become an important driving force to innovate for both companies and individuals. In addition, individual persons are motivated to contribute to innovation activities (such as crowdsourcing initiatives or idea competitions) for their pleasure.
'A key problem with horizonscanning is that it normally adopts a scattergun approach which leaves each topic treated superficially and in isolation, with little guidance on interlinkages and cross-impacts,
address‘wicked problems'and do not fit current institutional and governance structures 12. For example, universities find grand challenges difficult to use as an organisational principle both because of their interdisciplinary nature
Some try to deal with this problem by using them as a presentational device (what we are doing on energy etc.).
At a practical level the shifts make it less clear where the activity should be situated who has ownership of the problems
which has an inherently problem-based focus and in any case does not carry prime responsibility for the wider picture,
and disruptive challenges highlights the problem. The lists given above for EU and US research policies consist entirely of well-recognised challenges in
Looking at the technology side there was the clear problem, even failure, of narrow technological initiatives to achieve specific outcomes
One of the conclusions of the study is that the basis for political decisions often bears the imprint of negotiation rather than systematic analyses of the problems:
this was not a problem and we deliberately decided to interview all Ministries instead of focusing on one individual Ministry.
and barriers related to this linkage problem (see below). The national level‘policy foresight'studies showed that foresight can play three different roles:(
and, finally, there are many different local and national government organisations, each with there own mandate, nature, structure, problems and opportunities.
demands for a greater emphasis upon problem-oriented interdisciplinary research; and a continuing reassessment of relationships with the private sector and the innovation-related Knowledge Economy agenda (e g. through third stream activities.
In crowdsourcing on the other hand, an unsolved problem or question in this case what are (future) needs concerning digital TV is submitted to a large‘crowd'of users, drawing on knowledge that is available in the crowd.
A short video and storyboard with text and pictures visualised a specific multitasking problem and the participants were asked to reflect on this from their own perspective.
, the problems with traditional remote controls which are adapted not to new forms of use; the shared screen that is still predominantly used (and indivisible;
b) transparency and access to information generated by their BSC to understand the problems each organisation faces
The reality of public management in Brazil is marked by a lack of financial resources and excessive social problems
the latter being responsible for describing the capability of a firm's knowledge system to solve problems using organisational learning. 4 In the proposed system the method of perpetual budget 38 offers such characteristics as it supports the analysis of cause
Once in place, this would allow the State to offer solutions to emerging problems due to the strategic feedback mechanism in place (phase 4). Together,
%and the later from 30%to 60%in relation to implementation of public policies. 3. 1. 4. Negative results The main problem occurred in the translation of
On the other hand, the learning process enabled the identification of the problem itself, which was a strategic misalignment.
Still, many interviewees stated that this was not necessarily a problem. Instead, they even feared that formal processes would put too much emphasis on‘filling in forms,
Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 8 Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of potential future) problems, threats,
Horizzo scanning may explore novel and unexpected issuues as well as persistent problems, trends and weak signals. Overall, horizon scanning is intended to imprrov the robustness of policies
and sciennc and technology (S&t) foresight and other FTA TOOLS by its wide scope and its function to envisage the complexity of future societal problems
or prevent these problems or to diminnis the negative impacts of these problems. Horiizo scanning does not replace the more focused FTA ACTIVITIES
7 In the same year, the Netherlands8 started a national horizon scanning activity that covered a wide range of (potential) futuur problems, threats and opportunities in all poliic domains (societal sectors) and in S&t.
Finally, we are persuaded that horizon scanning gives us a tool to create a common understanding and shared awareness of a wide variety of future problems, threats and opportunities (PTOS),
Identify knowledge gaps (relevant for resolving future problems or for exploiting potential opportunities). Identify possible inter-linkages (enhancers, inhibitoors multipliers) between future issues (from differren parts of the horizon) with a potentially major impact.
which the government will be held 3. Identification problems and opportunities---4. Evaluation and weighing of problems and opportunities List P---List O---1. Literature study 2. Consultation of national international experts 6. Formation of clusters
and connections domains+disciplines 7. Cluster descriptions 9. Knowledge and strategic questions per cluster 8. Essays per cluster 3 5 4 6 910 1
2 8 7 R&d agenda Policy agenda 5. Coupling of opportunities and problems through creative sessions and consultations 10.
2006), also due to more general problems around the interaction of scientific advice, government and society (De Wit, 2005) it is clear that horizon scanning is seen as a valued but also vulnerable learning process (DEFRA,
when problems have accumulated this picture can be used to scope further (foresight activities to align key stakeholders
The RT Delphi is a way of addressing the problem of the generally large dropout rate in online surveys
the workshop was successful in identiffyin problem areas, raising concerns and eliciting different views, which in turn meant that no consenssu on the future of the creative content industries could be achieved.
how they are structured, their wish list, their view of problems). An assessment of this qualitative data was coupled with more quantitatiiv data (budgets, number of employees etc.
or initiatives to further scrutinize the problem and its key dimensions; and/or providing new orientation to examine established policies Societal aspects Social mapping:
how are they structurred their wish list, their view of problems. An assessment of this qualitative data was coupled with more quantitative data (budgets, number of employees etc.
the authors envisioned potential problems for the program and made recommendations consistent with the critical success factors identified.
their orientation to the importance of considering diverse futures and the urgency and complexity of problems facing the national policy community.
The real problem is not knowing what different countries do, which does not differ much from country to country,
stic system for sample delivery Research on personal diagnostic devices Need to solve problem of benefit sharing Research on field diagnostic devices New light source for internal body
However, this shift towards user-driven innovatiio also brings problems and challenges, such as the issue of the continuous involvement of users and the discrepancy between theory and practice in this respeect Although the user-driven innovation paradigm advocates an open perspective
and technology The second challenge concerns the problem of integraatin the knowledge being gathered by multidiscipliinar teams,
Such evaluatiion can be subject to selection-bias problems becaaus subsidized firms are not a random group.
The multi-dimensionality of the matching problem (matching with respect to each single element of a vector X of firm characteristtics can be reduced under certain conditions (Rosenbaum and Rubin,
Griessen and Braun (2006) deal with the problems of political coordination of innovation policies in Switzerland.
and‘wickedness'of grand challenges poses a fundamental problem for existing governance structures. Historically evolved systems of national and international public administtratio demonstrably have fundamental difficulties in addressing grand challenges that is not the kind of univeers they were designed to handle.
but as necessary evolutions to keep pace with wicked problems and challenges. There is also an obvious need to adapt to
and analyse emerging problems and generate a range of creative responses. The challenge for STI policy therefore, would appear to be:.
in order to mitigate problems once they start to unfold. A second issue arises when we observe the emergence of problems related to the need to coordinate new forms of research and innovation organization,
as well as new manageemen approaches and changes of focus, from short-to 246. C. C. Nehme et al. medium-and long-term, in organizations, government structures and their many links and relationships.
The anxiety associated with acquiring new knowledge to provide for rapid solutions to problems which have been identified, is observed often among participants in the initial phase of the foresight exercise.
Thus the coordination team must be aware of these problems and provide for solutions to them.
overcome structural problems and develop a new institutional culture. Thus, the use of the conceptual and methodological approach of strategic foresight to set strategic priorities and action plans
requiring immediate solutions to the problems identified, a long-term vision not being the norm. Competitive intelligence approaches produce better engagement than strategic foresight.
Time is usually not a problem and all governance levels are to be considered and respected.
China, science policy, research, innovation. 1. Introduction and problem definition In recent years, there has been a rapidly growing interest in the development of science, technology and innovation (STI) in the People's republic of china.
such as the 863 Program, the 973 Program or the KIP, are created outside the temporal planning cycle in response to problems
these appeals tend to address widely known issues or problems in China's S&t system. In some cases they may even be encouraged by the government, letting experts point to problem areas
which the government already has identified and intends to tackle. As an example, the 863 Program was preceded by a letter written by four Chinese scientists (Daheng Wang, Ganchang Wang G.,Jiachi Yang G,
by providing techniica solutions for overcoming problems such as scarcity of resources, provision of energy, and environmental degradation.
and are made generally up of‘wicked problems'(Rittel and Weber 1973) that are difficult or even impossiibl to solve by single agencies or through rational planning approaches.
in part, they reflect a perceived growing urgency to address a series of problems that could,
just as much exacerbate the problems associated with grand challenges as it can contribute to their solutions.
Weak interactions are diagnosed commonly as problems 142. C. Cagnin et al. for innovation systems, since cycles of learning and innovation are less likely to become established
Finding a solution to the problem of scarce energy resources, for example, requires not only surpassing long-established vested interests in certain resources but also a change in the behaviour, norms and values of societies.
opportunities and problems encountered in sectors, technologies and social networks (Stirling et al. 2009). Clearly, the eorientation of innovation systems places particular demands on STI policy and the governance of innovation systems.
and impacts of grand challenges as well as their possible solutions Informing role of FTA can be embedded within EU instruments in the steps of challenge/problem identificatiion prioritisation of associated themes and areas for research,
and priorities Informing role of FTA can be embedded within EU instruments in the steps of challenge/problem identificatiion
Identification of systemic problems (or failures)',CIRCLE Electronic Working Paper Series 2008/06. Lund: Lund University.
Too close relationships with the potential users in private or public organisations may inhibit the critical function that FTA should have shared (a problem with external FTA service providers who depend strongly on their clients.
More recently, the scope of the problems and issues to be tackled by FTA has been expanding.
Organisations are facing major problems in identiffyin future challenges and providing solutions on time. A faster and continuous analysis and translation into actions of future challenges and opportunities is needed
Whether a specific model of FTA is appropriate for a transformative problem or not strongly depends on the wider institutional and organisatioona environment in
The main problem is that governments and companies tend to deal with changes in a reactive rather than a proacttiv mode.
not only applies to the problems and challenges ahead, but also to the FTA systems that are already in place.
The increasing ease of international exchange coupled with the recognition that many scientific problems from climate change to AIDS, are inherently international in nature,
but had resulted in some problems absorbing the results into the ICSU strategic plan. It was decided to internalise the process as far as possible.
but in others, many of the problems faced in 2010 were discussed already widely, e g. environmental concerns.
perhaps coalescing into a‘perfect storm'of major problems (Beddington 2009) this thought experiment served to lessen the remoteness of 2031
e g. peer review and other forms of self regulation Proliferation of local solutions to societal problems that also utilise‘traditional knowledge'Fewer opportunities for curiosity-driven Research funding for science is on a relative decline Figure 1. Exploratory scenario
references to OA in grant agreements) Problems of oversight related to research integrity Evaluation Evaluation of transnational programme refers to appropriateness, effectiveness and efficiency in execution of entire programme and its parts
innovation and other policy areas (such as competition, regional, financial, employment and education policies) Another organisation deals with international activities Problems with aligning financial resources and budget
and enables transitions between different levels of abstraction by way of problem structuring and synthesis (Ko nno la et al. 2011).
the systematic examination of potential future) problems, threats, opportunities and likely future developments, including those at the margins of current thinking and planning.
as well as persistent problems, trends and weak signal. Van Rij 2010a, 2010b) Horizon scanning may also take place in specific policy domains (Botterhuis et al. 2010.
promising, threatening, solutioons discoveries, problems, crisis, tensions, growth, breakthroughs, breakdowns, or new insights in combinaatio with the domain demarcating keywords..
For the scientists in the labs these developments cause many problems because:..the speed of communication is ahead of the sheer time needed to think
as well as persistent problems or trends. 1 At present, various forms of horizon scanning are quite widespread (Amanatidou et al. 2012),
and where they evolve interdependently in a problem context where policy actions need to be coordinated
Global problems which have already been identified..Unknown unknowns some problems that will occur, but which have not yet been identified.
All definitions have in common that the global challenges need answers and solutions and that they will have a huge impact
if no solutions are found to solve the‘problems 'or find answers for identified trends.
Here the (mega-)trends and the global problems are derived from the‘tensions'described in this approach.
Tensions are worked not out as‘problems, 'but are described as tensions:.between the current methods of production, consumption and the future availability of nonreneewabl resources. between a general and simultaneous process of increasing economic interdependence and differentiation. between spatial proximity in the context of accelerated urbanisation
and global goals can be described as‘large permanent problems'.'Some have been known for a long time, but still remain problematic
All the problems and challenges identified here are those that can somehow be dealt with by the means human beings have at their disposal.
Steinmu ller 2011) and all of them have been ongoing problems for a long time so at the same time, they are based on trends or megatrends.
of Action for the Sustainable development of Small Island Developing States and 22nd General assembly provisions) Target 15 Deal comprehensively with debt problems of developing countries through national and
and backgrounds in order to solve problems..Perform dedicated technological R&d projects: the projects should be supported by technologies from Fraunhofer
and need to produce results that really offer a solution for a part of the problem..
and to try to contribute to solving the problems. For Fraunhofer, with its strong technology-and at the same time application-orientation, this is rather new.
Which result leads to a maximum impact in solving the problem? A single researcher with one core competence is often not able to have an overview of the spectrum of alternative solutions.
< Back - Next >
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011