possible future

Possible future

Alternative future (64)
Desirable future (20)
Desired future (30)
Different futures (6)
Endogenous futures (14)
Expected future (7)
Future (2392)
Future challenges (39)
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Future development (114)
Future fields (16)
Future impacts (9)
Future innovation (24)
Future research (148)
Future scenarios (45)
Future science (7)
Future technology (57)
Future vision (29)
Future-oriented analysis (32)
Future-oriented analysis methods (3)
Futures analysis (32)
Futures methodology (4)
Futures studies (41)
Long-term future (14)
Near future (12)
Possible future (95)
Potential future (24)
So-called future (3)
Sustainable future (10)
Uncertain future (7)
Unknown future (5)

or at least a single desirable future, to capture possible future pathways. Over the past few years, a number of general trends in foresight practices can be observed that reflect what could be regarded the mainstream of foresight.

one is led to an approach that first tries carefully to map available decision options as well as possible future developments.

if adopted, can be expected to work reasonably well across the whole identified span of possible future developments.

and regulations and their possible future impacts is rather difficult even for experts, because standards and regulations contain technical,

and can be applied in all areas, covering all possible future driving forces, but also possible impacts of regulations and standards.

1. explore and develop tools to map possible futures for the field of cell-on-a-chip with a focus on single cell analysis

what we show here as the possible future path/paradigm at the level of an application area (drug discovery) may also be called an innovation system.

different possible future states can be considered:(a) nonacademic sources of knowledge are considered fully legitimate, i e. academic research loses its power to validate knowledge;(

or stories of a future world) are meant to present a number of different possible future roles, missions, organisational forms, strengths and weaknesses for universities.

and possible future research which might be performed to strengthen the method for technology analysis. The hierarchical random graph approach structured evidence of an existing technological network

Many applications focused on exploring broad ranges of possible future context conditions. Additionally, strategic options were assessed in relation to specific scenarios 21.

1) Exploratory context scenarios analyze a set of possible future framework conditions relevant for organizations, regions or communities.

Mannermaa 22 calls these hermeneutic studies, that aim at explicating a subjective understanding of possible future social realities.

Foresight exercises, in turn, usually identify the possible future developments, driving forces, emerging technologies, barriers, threats and opportunities related to a broader socio-techno-economic system.

Creating shared understandings among the stakeholders about the possible future developments is also important in each field;

in order to illustrate the potentiality of the future and possible future risks. The challenge of making a bridge between foresight

and take also the different pathways to the possible futures. The weaknesses, threats opportunities and strengths of the different futures are identified

To identify possible future developments, driving forces, emerging technologies, barriers, threats and opportunities related to a broader socio-technoeconnomi system.

Stimulating wider debates about possible futures and clarifying an issues importance were ranked as the objectives of highest relevance.

The creation of visions of possible futures in Constructive TA is based on analysis rather than brainstorming.

in exploring different possible futures and understanding future risks. Ling (2002,127, n9) writes that‘All policy makers are expected to think about the risks associated with a policy

4. In scenario planning a set of alternative scenarios are created to achieve an understanding of the range of possible future developments, more or less regardless of

Otherwise the views of the possible futures that await us may continue to go largely unheard and unheeded

or prophesying the future in favour of developing insight into possible futures and preparing for them.

or at least to be able to present a picture of plausible possible futures, but never to have heard these messages,

and anticipate the various possible futures that will guide PAGE 280 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 society.

Scenarios are defined by many authors as a coherent illustration of possible future situations together with pathways that might lead to these situations (Kosow and Gaßner 2008.

By simply thinking about a possible future (the purchase of the flat), you have changed your frame.

lies a hidden risk in using numerical values to describe possible future events. Calculations often oversimplify possible development paths,

territorial foresight gradually builds up an integrated vision of the possible future through participation methods. Foresight is thus complementary to the established planning processes

and anticipate the various possible futures that will guide society. Design/methodology/approach The paper describes a series of real world examples

These key uncertainties and contingencies allowed the LOTF team to systematically explore possible futures, providing the foundation for the following three alternative futures

In other words, through serious multi-player online games, we will be able to explore possible futures not only different designs of shopping malls, airports,

Through the use of scenario planning techniques, the future leaves the realm of the unknown and the impossible, transiting to the domain of the Possible future,

and anticipate (if not construct) the various possible future developments that will guide society. VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 347 In this way,

These contributions point to possible future directions to be followed by FTA in order to better cope with Grand challenges. The arguments in the keynote of Ollila are in line with a tendency of the private side to claim that they are prepared better for the future than the public side.

whose present or possible future position meant that they were then able to affect the amelioration of a situation

lessons from the sociology of expectations Harro van Lente*Department of Innovation studies, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable development, Utrecht University, 3508 TC Utrecht, The netherlands Foresight can be described as the articulation of possible futures.

as formal articulations of possible futures, relate to a broader, informal, repertoire of visions and future assessments and how this both enhances

'In general, foresight can be described as the articulation of possible futures, intended as a realistic outlook, as a mirror to the current situation,

5. Conclusion Foresight exercises can be seen as formal articulations of possible futures, to be contrasted with the numerous informal articulations of futures that circulate in science and technology.

This is a research question and possible future that is worthy of exploration. Acknowledgements The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the LDRD Program, Sandia National Laboratories,

It is therefore essential to underpin research policy with robust assumptions and a structured view of possible future developments.

and QT approaches does lead not only to a richer analysis of possible futures, but also to a wider view on possible directions of future developments.

the 2011 FTA Scientific Committee argued that the exclusive use of qualitative methods can lead to partial views on possible futures,

who see FTA EXERCISES as attempts to collect knowledge about‘posits'or possible futures, their plausibility and limits, their internal consistency and conformity with models and data, their consistency with expert judgement,

In Section 2 we pointed to the need to understand the opportunities that different methodologies can offer in collecting knowledge about possible futures 22.

Second, when FTA and especially foresight is addressing the intrinsically uncertain challenge of devising possible futures,

when referred to long-term, unverifiable representations of possible futures. Past performance is considered commonly as the most useful indication on which to build credibility and trust.

both quantitative and qualitative tools aim at better understanding possible futures and reducing uncertainty and ignorance.

and fitting of growth models to project possible future trends 5. Most trend projection is naïve i e.,

for decisions can be designed to be robust across the explored range of possible futures. By supporting the systematic exploration of the complete space of combinations of uncertainties,

Moreover, EMA can also be used for creatively imagining possible futures and subsequently selecting interesting ones, by combining it with scenario discovery 48.

Alternatively, EMA offers the potential to support the process of creatively imagining possible futures, a purpose for which it was used in the first case study. The techniques used in each of the tree cases do not exclude each other.

Trying to find the most likely development The eventualities mode Possible futures Openness to several different developments The visionary mode Preferable futures Envisioning how society can be designed in a better way 435 P

whether the scenarios delineate the range of possible futures appropriately 64. As documented by van der Heijden 65,

but the focus is less on delineating the range of possible futures and more on a preferable future vision.

In addition the success of the roadmaps can be tested for different possible future images. This will provide essential information about the robustness of the innovation potential.

and discussed possible future innovation landscapes together with innovation actors from a wide range of backgrounds. In order to do justice to the transformative nature of the subject

and workshops to increase awareness about possible future changes. We used an independent evaluation that was conducted in 2010 by the University of Twente 21, based on interviews with 21 politicians and civil servants and a document analysis. Furthermore,

whereas the focus tends to be more on identifying possible future issues at the local level.

For instance, possible future economic issues can be related to social and technological issues, while (local and national) governments are organised often along these thematic pillars.

At the same time, a spectrum of foresight methods can be applied to develop a better understanding of possible future developments of the systems under analysis 7. In this context

Similarly, aspects such as the technological complexity and lack of references to existing products seem to constrain users to think about possible future products.

Yet, Lead User input can to some extent help to lower uncertainty regarding possible future needs and markets.

and roadmapping are used commonly for the identification of technological opportunities and exploration of possible future markets in this respect.

(i) anticipation of the drivers and weak signals of change with the intention of being prepared for whatever might follow from the ongoing and future social, economic and political mayhem with a rich understanding of systems, their history and possible futures,(ii) analysis of different stakeholder perspectives

Both studies have sought to engage current users at an early stage in the exploration and identification of possible future development ideas

the aim was to explore possible future viewing behaviour and viewer profiles through the involvement of real users in a cultural probing exercise.

both very advanced users as well as non-expert users are capable of reflecting on possible future developments, their possible impact,

and anticipate possible future developments, needs, expectations,..IF aims to enhance users'input to and their influence on the inclusive knowledge creation process.

and the preparation of adequate measures to react to the various possible futures 22. The close link between innovation and futures research tempts analogies to be drawn between the historical developments of both concepts as illustrated in Table 1

and evaluate possible future developments within the project boundaries. Thus, the futures research activities within EICT usually address thematic issues in various industries.

in addition to conceptual work about possible future developments created a kind of‘‘the urgent drives out the important''atmosphere as Henri Kissinger put it.

Policymakker are encouraged to expose their analysis to possible future trends to prepare themselves better. Alert policy-makers to forgotten

In addition, as neithhe of the two possible future developments seemed to be more likely than the other it was necessary to add the (originally unforeseen) scenario process

This becaam necessary because the range of possible futures turned out to be broader than was expected initially.

Information flow through the two phases of the project is shown in Figure 2. Scenarios We used scenarios in attempts to develop internally consistent stories about possible futures (Tegart and Johnston,

which served to translate possible futures into a schema that is both comprehensible and actionable, a high level of imagination and openness to new ideas,

and dealing with the notion of‘possible futures'(Jouvenel 1967), is not only feasible, but is also very important nowadays

We can say that they are interconnnecte every time the need arises to identify possible futures

The participation of different stakeholders in the process of identifying possible futures creates a more democratic decision-making and incorporates different visions into the foresight process, different points of view, contributing to the success of the entire exercise and to the quality of the final results.

Furthermore, it is important to assemble possible futures in the same way that a puzzle is assembled

and understand possible futures associated with the main issues under analysis. In this phase, it is vital to apply collective intelligence procedures,

'This message must be interpreted as a call to explore possible futures and to adapt the agency to face potential future developmennts and,

is the representation of a temporal sequence of possible future events, delimiting the scope of the observation dimensions

visualize possible futures and take strategic actions. The development of the FINEP SMP also represented an excellent opportunity for those participating to reflect on the main characteristics of the national ST&I systeem whether good or bad,

The question that arises from these observations on the possible future evolution of FTA is whether or not these types of developments will be sufficient to cope with the challenges of transformative and disruptive changes.

and possible future situations to be prepared for properly shaping the future. Identifying weak signals and developiin scenarios are crucial tools in preparing for the unexpeccted

but need to gain a good appreciation of possible future developments, particularly given the uncertainties around the dynamics and impacts of grand challenges.

the new exercise set out to focus on the exploration of possible futures of international science cooperation and the roles ICSU might play.

allowing for exploration of possible futures and for articulation of a visionary‘success scenario'..'Scope: While the exercise was intended to increase ICSU's organisational agility

together with an exploration of possible future developments that might offer opportunities or threats to ICSU.

or possible futures, may or will (depending on the narrative) look like and that connect these possible futures to current issues for political debate (the discourse)'.

'Recent horizon scans of the UK, Netherlands and Denmark show us many examples of smaller and larger potential emerging issues.