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| Futures research methodology (9) | |
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| Future research (126) | |
| Futures research methodology (9) | |
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Finally, we derive requirements for future research. 2. Overview of regulatory foresight methodologies In order to provide a first overview of methods to conduct regulatory foresight,
in which Germany did not leverage its excellent position in research and development into a leading position in setting the necessary framework conditions for future research and market introduction via standardisation 39.
A Guide to Futures research, Beverly hills/London/New delhi, 1983.42 K. Cuhls, Technikvorausschau in Japan. Ein Rückblick auf 30 Jahre Delphi-Expertenbefragungen, Physica Verlag, Heidelberg, 1998.43 National Institute of Science and Technology policy (NISTEP:
This review suggests an important avenue for research in this article, and in future research: creating software solutions to help innovative organizations develop new technologies within an open innovation environment.
Repeated trials and a more complete analysis based on an evolving network are desirable items for future research.
Change 65 (1)( 2000) 115 123.22 M. Mannermaa, Futures research and social decision making: alternative futures as a case study, Futures 18 (5)( 1986) 658 670.23 L. Börjeson, M. Höjer, K. Dreborg, T. Ekvall, G. Finnveden, Scenario types
Frontiers of futures research: What's next? Theodore J. Gordon, Jerome C. Glenn*,Ana Jakil American Council for the United nations University, 4421 Garrison Street N w.,WASHINGTON DC 20016, United states Received
accepted 1 november 2004 Abstract This paper describes some important frontiers of futures research with the aim of identifying new opportunities for improving the value and utility of the field.
These frontiers include the exploration and/or the reexamination of (a) Potential for integrating new technology with futures research methods,
Futures research methodology; New technologies; Decision making; Uncertainty; Nonlinear systems; Futures methodology issues 1. Introduction There are many methods and approaches to the study of the future.
While futures research methods are internally coherent and used systematically, there is no assurance that the evolution of such methods 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2005 American Council for the United nations University.
if addressed, may improve the quality of the enterprise 1. 2. Integrating new technology with futures research methods New technologies carry great potential for improving
and refining the conceptualization and application of futures research methods. For example, the Internet has made participatory approaches among geographically dispersed people practical.
Just forty years ago, computers were not much of a factor in futures research. The Delphi method was accomplished with pencil and paper in 1963,
and improved computer translation will allow more international foresight activities to build collective intelligence through participatory feedback systems far more complex than the current futures research methods.
The examples mentioned above represent only a small part of the immense potential of new technology in futures research.
Since futures research has as its primary raison d'e tre informing policymaking, a better understanding of the mechanics of decision making would be useful.
This assumption moves us into the realm of psychology. 7. The assumption of reductionism There is an implicit assumption in some methods of futures research that reducing a problem to its elements improves the forecasts produced by the method.
and futures research will be important and powerful. It will give new salience to agent modeling since the implicit rules of behavior of ever smaller groups will be known with increasing accuracy.
and challenges that may give new vitality to futures research. Certainly as they and other directions are explored the field will gain new thinking
Thus, these frontiers will serve as important orientation in the elaboration of the second edition of Futures research methodology 2. 1 (CD-ROM) to be published by American Council for the United nations University early in 2005.
Futures research methodology Version 2. 0 (CD-ROM), American Council for the United nations University, 2002. For further information see:
He is the innovator of several methods of futures research and author of several books and hundreds of articles dealing with the future research methodology, space, and innovation.
and has 35 years experience in futures research with governments, UN organizations, corporations, universities, and nonprofit organizations.
She is currently writing her Phd thesis on the futures research methodology for exploring complex emergencies. She can be contacted at ana. jakil@univie. ac. at.
Kerstin Cuhls is coordinator of the business area Foresight and Futures research in the Competence Center Innovation and Technology management and Foresight at the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research in Karlsruhe, Germany.
Two exploratory studies, J. Bus. Res. 51 (2001) 223 232.29 J. C. Glenn, T. J. Gordon, Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures research
Futures research Quarterly 17, no. 2: 33 55. Karlsen, J. E, . and H. Karlsen. 2007. Expert groups as production units for shared knowledge in energy foresight.
These were focused all upon identifying future research directions for Luxembourg. In parallel, key trends and thematic research priorities were collected from 13 countries.
policy impact 1. Introduction In 2006, the City of Vienna initiated a far-reaching and open strategy process on the orientation of its future research, technology and innovation (RTI) policy.
and strategy process had a quite significant impact on guiding the future research and innovation policy in Vienna, but the closeness to policy making implied that some of the exploratory and‘out-of-the-box'thinking that would usually be part of a foresight process was regarded not desirable
A central reference was the CD-ROM Futures research methodology, version 2. 0 edited by J. C. Glenn and T. J. Gordon
. which directed the first industry-wide futures research program, the Trend Analysis Program of the American Council of Life insurance.
A Guide to Futures research, Sage, Beverly hills, 1983.12 R. Barre',Synthesis of technology foresight, in Strategic policy Intelligence:
and of course futures research with its emphasis on explicating long-term alternative development prospects. There are quite distinct communities at work in different areas of practice, for example environmental/climatological, employment/skills, security/defence,
Classic futures research was criticised often for elitism and subservience to military or corporate interests; more Recent foresight programmes have addressed broader participation more directly,
and challenges that this entails, indicating paths for future research. To sum up, the articles in this special issue demonstrate a variety of FTA application fields
Gordon, T. J.,Glenn, J. C. and Jakil, A. 2005),‘Frontiers of future research: what's next?''
However, it somewhat undermines the very thing one is trying to achieve by futures research methods namely encouraging creativity and a wide variety of options and weak emerging issues.
Gordon, T. J. 2010),‘The Delphi method'',in Gordon, T. J. and Glenn, J. Eds), Futures research methodology CD Version 3. 0, Ch. 4, Millennium Project, WASHINGTON DC.
. 1991),‘In search of an evolutionary paradigm for futures research'',Futures, Vol. 23 No. 4, pp. 349-72.
She is Professor of Futures research at the Finland futures research centre, University of Turku. Previously she was a Chief Research scientist at the Technical research Centre of Finland (VTT.
Her expertise is concerned with futures research, sustainable development, technology foresight, energy and environment, and the future of communities.
and challenges that this entails, indicating paths for future research. Originality/value Future-oriented legal studies are rare and,
Future research The introduction of FTA TOOLS and techniques to Law, as this paper attempted to demonstrate,
In Futures research: New directions, ed. H. A. Linstone andw. H. C. Simmonds, 53 64. Reading, MA:
Frontiers of futures research: What's next? Technological forecasting and Social Change 72, no. 9: 1064 9. Grin, J,
Qualitative futures research for innovation. Phd thesis (Delft University of Technology), Delft: Eburon. Van Lente, H. 1993), Promising technology.
Future research efforts can build on literature on innovation and managerial cognition (Tripsas and Gavetti 2000) for investigating how to identify discontinuous drivers
Futures research methodology. WASHINGTON DC: American Council for the United nations, The Millennium Project. Grant, R. M. 2003. Strategic planning in a turbulent environment:
Finally, at least three paths for future research can be delineated. First, the notion of systemic transformation capacities should be analysed from perspectives other than roadmapping.
and analyzing areas for future research and technology, including some that use a mission-oriented approach within the framework of societal needs defined by the so-called‘‘High-tech Strategy''.
An efficient transfer of foresight results has to be secured proactively to grasp the opportunity to consciously shape future research in a competitive and dynamic environment The context is dynamic
Key results of strategic dialogues are the development of recommendations for the BMBF as input for future research policy.
Survey of earlier national research policy Where funding programs are considered as an element of future research policy it is important to gain an overview of previous funding activities in relevant subject areas as well as lessons learnt.
and future research should take this into account to test the validity of the proposed model.
Finally, future research avenues include elaborating on the use of EMA for designing dynamic adaptive policies and the use of EMA for scenario discovery,
Future research could take up this endeavour. Fig. 1. Epistemology-skills-trust cycle. 392 K. Haegeman et al./
Future research should also take this into account. Third, the classifier we used in this paper is the nearest neighbour classifier.
Futures research methodology Version 3. 0.,Millennium Project, WFUNA, WASHINGTON DC, 2009, Chapter 8. 35 E t. Popper, B. D. Buskirk, Technology life cycles in industrial markets, Ind.
and proposed a research agenda for future research. But these authors have not considered in detail the new capabilities
Future research avenues include elaborating on the use of EMA for designing dynamic adaptive policies and the use of EMA for 429 J. H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80
Futures research methodology, Version 2. 0 AC/UNU Millennium Project, American Council for the United nations University, Washington D c.,US, 2003.57 In:
and suggest that networked foresight is‘‘the logical next generation of futures research.''''The time it has taken to edit
which futures research was applied to policy and organisational development. This research approach is different from the research at the local level;
in the local studies, the evaluation of futures research methods was considered predominantly in view of how they are used for
most civil servants were also familiar with‘future essays',quantitative futures research, the Delphi method, game simulations and future workshops.
The two national studies show that civil servants are increasingly knowledgeable about futures research methods, improving their ability to assess the quality of futures research projects that have been outsourced.
On the whole, we conclude that, at a national level, people are more familiar and experienced with foresight for policymakkin purposes than at the local level.
futures research appears to play a role in the early phases of the strategic policy processes, agenda setting and (in part) policy preparation.
''As was highlighted in the analysis of the Stuurgroep Toekomstonderzoek (Steering committee Future research) 27, foresight studies work better when combined with policy processes rather than as a stand-alone process.
because it conflicted with the widely held belief that futures research methods are instruments that speed up the development new strategic policies.
although the futures research processes are relatively transparent and rational in nature, the organisational embeddedness and (subsequent) use is not a fully rational process
An important challenge has to do with connecting the outcomes of futures research to decision-making processes. Da Costa et al. 25 also conclude that foresight results can only be taken on board by policy-makers
A Study of Stakeholder participation in an Integrated Assessment of Long-term Climate Policy in The netherlands, LEMMA Publishers, Utrecht, 2004.15 P. A. van der Duin, Qualitative Futures research for Innovation, Eburon
An exploratory study into the relationship between futures research and strategy and policy processes at Dutch ministries, Futures 41 (2009) 607 618.24 P. A. van der Duin, J. Dirven, C
. Hazeu, E. van der Linde, P. Rademaker, On the use of futures research for organizational change in Dutch government ministries, Futures 12 (2010) 23 36.25 O. Da
this would be an interesting question for future research or a project. Further efforts to develop
The conclusions provide a brief critical evaluation of the methods and an identification of requirements for future research.
Future research should focus on the development of a comprehensive classification and integration of methods that are relevant for IF purposes,
and refine such a renewed system the authors propose its application in practice as an avenue for future research.
An Appraisal and Agenda for Future research, Handbook of Strategic management, Blackwell Business, Malden, Massachusetts, 2001, pp. 602 626.12 R. Kaplan, D. Norton, Building a Strategy-Focused
Exploring the use of futures research in innovation networks Patrick van der Duin a b, 1,,*Tobias Heger c, Maximilian D. Schlesinger d a Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX, The netherlands b Futures research & Trendwatching at the Fontys University
of Applied sciences, Academy for Creative industries, The netherlands c Chair for Innovation Management and Entrepreneurship, University of Potsdam, August-Bebel-Straße 89,14482 Potsdam, Germany d EICT Gmbh
, Ernst-Reuter-Platz 7, 10587 Berlin, Germany 1. Introduction Both innovation and futures research have been identified as being crucial for the success of companies.
The connection between futures research and innovation has been established well (e g. by Cooper 1, Tidd 2) and the use of futures research within individual companies has been studied on various occasions.
These studies have provided insight into how futures research methods and innovation processes can be combined and integrated 3, how technology intelligence processes can be organized 4
and how corporate foresight affects companies'innovative capabilities 5. In 2003, Chesbrough coined the term‘Open innovation'to describe the paradigm‘‘that firms can
Innovation networks Futures research Foresight Networked foresight Open innovation A b s T R A c T Along with the rise of the now popular‘open'paradigm in innovation management,
The link between futures research and innovation networks led us to investigate the following questions:(1) How is futures research related to the context of‘open innovation'in general,
and to‘innovation networks'in particular?(2) Do activities that could be named‘networked foresight'exist?(3) How are these activities currently conducted?
first, by investigating the relationship and analogies of innovation management and futures research; second, by explicating the link of futures research to innovation networks.
Then, the approach for the analysis is outlined, the CIM is introduced as an analytical framework and the categorization of foresight is explained.
The article finishes with concluding remarks. 2. Toward networked foresight 2. 1. Analogies in the development of innovation management and futures research Liyanage 13, Niosi 14 and Ortt and van der Duin 15
Up to the 1980s, futures research focused on forecasting future developments by applying s-curves, Delphi studies and mathematical models 18 20.
Subsequently, futures research focused on identifying possible and preferable futures instead of trying to predict the future 21.
The close link between innovation and futures research tempts analogies to be drawn between the historical developments of both concepts as illustrated in Table 1
. Since the connection between the different generations of innovation processes and futures research can be established for the past,
this article seeks to analyze the apparent next step in the development of futures research: networked foresight. 2. 2. Linking futures research to innovation networks 2. 2. 1. Trends driving corporate innovation toward open innovation processes Innovation, i e.,
, the process of creating a new product, service or system 24, has long been considered a driving force behind economic growth 25.
Futures research and open innovation Futures research aims at systematically exploring predicting and/or explaining future developments with the means of different methods and techniques, e g.,
In this context, the application of futures research methods can serve various goals such as testing strategies, or identifying new business fields or new policy issues.
The link between futures research and open innovation became apparent in past research. Rohrbeck and Gemu nden 5 link three of the above-listed trends driving open innovation shortening life cycles
Rohrbeck, Ho lzle and Gemu nden discuss the role of futures research for corporate innovativeness in the form of foresight workshops 8. These workshops are identified as one instrument of Deutsche telekom for embracing the open innovation paradigm
In this section we have shown two paths that led us to believe that networked foresight is the next generation of futures research:
First, the close connection between innovation management and futures research and analogies in their past developments hint at networked foresight as a logical next generation of futures research.
However, systematic research about futures research in innovation networks as one form to embrace open innovation is lacking.
Moreover, activities observable in the three cases are Table 1 Generations of innovation management and futures research (based on van der Duin 3
Innovation processes Futures research Generation 1 Technology push Technology forecasting Generation 2 Market pull Technology assessment Generation 3 Coupled innovation processes Exploratory futures research Generation
and characterize‘networked foresight'as the basis for further research. 3. Methodology 3. 1. Study design For analyzing the link between futures research
The WINN case allows futures research to be examined in a cooperation between two partners (RWS and an external consultancy Deltares) enhanced by external knowledge.
while the EIT ICT Labs case made it possible to observe futures research activities in a large network of around 65 partner organizations.
the link of future orientation, futures research and the network is analyzed by connecting the CIM analysis with the character of the foresight activities. 3. 2. Analytical framework 3. 2. 1. The Cyclic Innovation Model The main
since it comprises a direct link between futures research and innovation. Level 1 of the CIM is illustrated in Fig. 1. This future-oriented part of the CIM consists of four components:
and the interconnectedness of futures research In this article the CIM is used as a tool to structure
Additionally, the application of the CIM can reveal various system failures that can limit the effectiveness of the use of futures research.
Since the use of futures research in innovation networks is not yet mature it can be expected that the application of the CIM to the cases reveals that the focal networks have not explicated
three different levels are used (visualized as gray-shading) for each component of the CIM to visualize their preference concerning openness and network orientation of futures research activities.
They merely reflect the state of each case concerning the planned and actual network orientation concerning futures research activities. 3. 2. 3. Categorizing the networked foresight activities The implementation of the identified networked foresight activities is structured according to the three roles of foresight
In practice, the EICT supports collaborative projects in futures research, basic research, applied research, and new product development with expertise in innovation management, project management, and IT infrastructure.
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 68 innovation process, from futures research, topic identification and business field exploration to consortia building,
Here, collaborative futures research activities supported by EICT make it possible to identify risks and opportunities in the very early stages of product development (see below).(
The integration of new partners with additional competences, ideas and insights broaden the innovation potential of the network. 4. 2. 5. Networked foresight activities Futures research activities are conducted in particular within the innovation management unit of EICT.
The outcome of the applied futures research methods is broadened substantially in projects with interdisciplinary character and a combination of knowledge and insight from various industries.
The futures research activities at EICT have in common that they are applied usually on a project basis. Projects are set up with explicit definitions of time, scope and desired results.
Futures research methods are used subsequently to explore and evaluate possible future developments within the project boundaries. Thus, the futures research activities within EICT usually address thematic issues in various industries.
The future of the partners involved and EICT as an innovation network is addressed not within the foresight activities of the innovation management unit.
Based on the CIM evaluation and the futures research activity analysis the following conclusions can be drawn for the EIT ICT Labs:
'and on a project basis. When one of the network partners requests futures research for a selected topic EICT creates a network tailored for that topic
and provides the methodological background for futures research. The foresight activities are mostly mid-to short-term activities within Table 8 The scope of the foresight activities in the EIT ICT Labs
Fig. 4. Visualization of the EIT ICT Labs concerning openness and networks for futures research activities.
Futures research in the EIT ICT Labs can be characterized as thematically driven networked foresight conducted by equal partners. 5. 4. 2. Networked foresight linked to open innovation
and inside-out) information flow from the perspective of the partners it is an inside-out information flow. 6. Conclusions This paper aimed at exploring futures research in innovation networks by applying the Cyclic Innovation Model as analytical framework to three cases
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 76 In the literature review two paths that indicate networked foresight as the next generation of futures research were identified:
first, the close connection and analogies of innovation management and futures research hint at networked foresight as the logical next generation of futures research;
, Hoboken, 3rd ed.,2005.3 P. van der Duin, Qualitative Futures research for Innovation, Eburon Academic Publishers, Delft, 2006.4 U. Lichtenthaler, H. Ernst, External
I to determine the possible preparation for the future research and development (R&d) needed to manage,
Future research will include the testing of this multimettho approach with a large number of users and several usage contexts and parameters in a living lab setting.
draws conclusions and makes suggestions for future research. 2. Literature review and the configuration of the innovation systems The conception of the configuration of the three innovattio systems is established on the theoretical foundations of different system approaches.
The question should be analyzed further in future research. Acknowledgements The author particularly wishes to thank Prof.
2010) Envisioning Future research Horizons: Scenarios for the European research Landscape 2025. Munich: Fraunhofer Gesellschaft. ICSU. 2006) Strengthening International Science for the Benefit of Society:
but opens opportunities for future research and piloting of the proposed approach. 3. 1 Foresight processes case by case The cases were handpicked principally because of the explicit role of foresight activities in their implementation as well as the fact that the present authors had access to the information
Three working groups with funding organissation were composed based on similar interests in future research topics Mapping of recent foresight exercises with support of FPU Project pays attention to research capacity
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