Synopsis:
Future(s): Endogenous futures:
ART24.pdf
and incorporates what we call endogenous futures into scenarios which take actors'initiatives and interactions into account.
the innovation chain+,and endogenous futures. This framework which can help in structuring large amounts of heterogeneous data,
there are endogenous futures embedded in the present which can give indications and insights into the transition from present into future. 2. 3. Endogenous futures While new (emerging science and technology introduce novelties,
and thus potentially breaking up existing orders to some extent, subsequent developments create new patterns that may lead to stable situations.
Another aspect of endogenous futures is linked with anticipation of actors. Expectations can give indications of directions
Coupling endogenous futures with characteristics of innovation journeys (from historical case studies) within the framework of the IC+framework helps us structure the complexities
Constructive TA develops endogenous futures into scenarios which not only take actors'initiatives and interactions into account but also the surrounding or ensuing dynamics and shifts in agendas that slowly become irreversible.
based on expectations and path dependencies that are crystallising out of the present (endogenous futures). They not only provide a platform for positioning the tensions,
For reasons of space only one example (scenario 3) is given in full in Section 5. The example helps to illustrate elements such as paths and endogenous futures. 4. 1. The three scenarios At the time of the workshop
6. Evaluation and discussion These co-evolutionary scenarios can prepare the ground for discussion of complex potential radical technologies via the combination of endogenous futures, the IC+framework and deep case research into actors
Here they show that the patterns that were becoming stabilized by 2007 (identified through exploring endogenous futures) continue to shape development
and outcomes shaped by earlier patterns (endogenous futures), and in terms of encompassing variation and contingencies. The scenarios also worked well in terms of stimulating productive discussion in the workshop.
through exploration of endogenous futures and their playings out in scenarios, helps in creating more reflexive strategies.
and interact within multi-stakeholder workshops. 1237 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 The scenarios use endogenous futures,
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