future development

Future development

Alternative future (64)
Desirable future (20)
Desired future (30)
Different futures (6)
Endogenous futures (14)
Expected future (7)
Future (2392)
Future challenges (39)
Future changes (13)
Future development (114)
Future fields (16)
Future impacts (9)
Future innovation (24)
Future research (148)
Future scenarios (45)
Future science (7)
Future technology (57)
Future vision (29)
Future-oriented analysis (32)
Future-oriented analysis methods (3)
Futures analysis (32)
Futures methodology (4)
Futures studies (41)
Long-term future (14)
Near future (12)
Possible future (95)
Potential future (24)
So-called future (3)
Sustainable future (10)
Uncertain future (7)
Unknown future (5)

and modification of actual policy strategies because the perception and the expectations of actors with respect to future developments have changed as a result of the process.

This obviously makes the anticipation of future developments and their consequences more difficult than ever before.

Adaptive planning (AP) as one of the constituents of Adaptive foresight belongs to a strand of strategic planning that stresses the limitations to both foreseeing and controlling future developments.

and assess future developments in their socioeconomic and technological dimensions. At later stages however, when individual actors need to make up theirminds about their strategies and concrete decisions,

Even though scenarios depict future developments it is current policy-making they shall inform. Plausible in the sense that they start from (aspects of) the current situation and develop in ways consistent with established knowledge.

Foresight exercises are ways of obtaining opinions about future developments. Foresight is different from prognosis or prediction.

In reality, future developments underlie reciprocal influences which cannot be assessed exhaustively in advance, thus not predicted. There is, nevertheless, a need to monitor the future prospectively:

and Martin 17 made clear that a targeted shaping of future developments is limited strictly and that the potential impacts of decisions can only partially be estimated.

The relatively small importance of the regulatory framework for the future development of new issues in science and technology compared to other policy instruments is confirmed in the follow-up studies,

Information about the future developments of the factors should also be available. Then consistency checks have to be made,

Forecasts of the likely future development of S&t are generated; then research and development (R&d) efforts necessary to realize various goals are backcast.

and future developments, which can serve as a basis for action. They are tools for thinking about the future,

and shape future developments. The challenge of joining forces to develop more robust future-oriented support to decision making has been addressed in the series of International Seville FTA Conference organized by the Institute of Prospective Technological Studies, one of the Joint research Centers

another Finnish team, bring this novel focus on tools further into the interface with policy approaches in their timely paper on the Role of Technology barometer in Assessing Past and Future development of National Innovation system.

and surprises of future developments and better manage complex decisions involving conflicting societal interests. The paper by Loveridge and Saritas:

In its applications it has contributed to the analysis of future development options of nations regions, sectors and companies mainly by focusing on perspectives associated with new technology development.

The aim is to produce justified outlooks and proposals of future developments, typically reported as scenarios, visions, roadmaps and action recommendations.

Network building and participation in the foresight process provide an opportunity to affect the future developments and to create more desirable futures.

Outlooks, proposals of the future developments, scenarios, visions, roadmaps, action recommendations. Time horizon 0 5 years 5 50 years Phases Scope definition, risk identification, risk estimation (probability, consequences), risk evaluation The pre foresight phase

Some future developments of importance are currently unknown but discoverable. Others however are intrinsically unknowable. No matter the size of the model or the computer that runs it, some developments are beyond current discovery

Besides technological development decision-makers need all-inclusive knowledge of future developments of society, economy and impacts of science and technology.

In addition to performance analysis based on ex-post indicators the barometer includes the questionnaire of the views and visions of the future development by relevant national actors.

and gives perspectives for the future development of barometer. 2009 Published by Elsevier Inc. Keywords: Innovation policy Science and Technology indicators Barometer Future-oriented knowledge 1. Introduction A growing number of different international comparison systems of the economic and innovation performance of nations have emerged within a decade 2

and not on examination of future development. Gradually this debate led in The Finnish association of graduate engineers (TEK) to the decision to develop an own national performance comparison.

industrial and business barometers in its attempt to grasp future developments. The purpose of a technology barometer is to give data of how favorable and competitive the Finnish innovation environment is assessed to be now and in the future.

The future development of the economy and innovation system will be derived in part from the path dependent historical context

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 3. 2. Survey study of future visions In addition to indicator-based comparison the technology barometer instrument includes a survey about people's expectations regarding the future development trends.

The second themeof discussion ismore comprehensive and concerns the future development of innovation and business activities.

but furthermore the related national comparative examination gives additional and more detailed insights into the discussion of the future development of the national economy and innovation system.

What future development possibilities does the technology barometer instrument offer? Technology barometer is going to be developed towards an instrument that analyzes innovation systems as far-reaching socioeconomic technical complexes.

and surprises of future developments and better manage complex decisions involving conflicting societal interests is clearly not fully utilized.

and Section 6 synthesizes implications for the future development of the evaluative scenario literature. 2. Functions of scenario planning in the policy-making process The scenario planning literature highlights a wide range of decision support functions 8,

(i e. those driving forces which are highly uncertain in terms of their future development and could have a decisive impact on the topic at hand)

However, one might argue that the higher costs of inductive approaches in the beginning might pay off later in the process given the fact that unmet expectations about the ability of scenarios to deliver novel insights about future developments oftentimes lead to frustration or rejection of the approach by policy-makers.

Inclusivity is a matter of creating trust across a wide range of communities in discussions of future developments, especially in science and technology.

The fact that Delphi surveys often solely include point of views from scientists indicates that scientists in such surveey are expected to know about the future development of technology.

In many contexts political interests are as legitimate as‘neutral'expectations about future developments. In this perspective the premises for foresight might be that:

and strategy in national research councils and research programmes 923 Foresight and strategy focus on competencies and visions for defining future development;

However, with increased recognition of the role of research and innovation in contributing towards the future development of the country,

and shape future developments in an efficient and fully informed manner, the late 1970s saw the emergence of a new paradigm in research, technology and then also innovation policies,

How do we mobilise knowledge for futureorieente activities and expectations about future development? Giddens (1991,29) argues that our present knowledge about social institutions

they are involved in the practical reality of political and social agents competing for the right to represent future developments.

and to assist in the explorattio of future developments and their implications for scientific and technological competences.

Consensual A project level consensus on the future developments. Still, different scenarios were considered. Fixed A fixed procedure

Generation of innovation ideas in Finnish Foresight Forumf 20 Informative Identification of future developments in nutrigenomics,(ii) health care and social services and (iii) services for the provision of personal experiences.

exploration of alternative paths of future development, and how they are integrated into designs for a new context.

FTA PROCESSES striving for consensus differ from those welcoming diverse views on future developments; and instrumental FTA PROCESSES differ from merely informative ones.

opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues

it is only possible to view future development through qualitative arguments. The key element for successful application of the method is the choice of expert group that produces the information.

with questions concerning development paths having limited options on future development to choose from, whereas questions concerning the scenario drafts were open questions.

but rather an array of possibilities and alternative visions on the future development, as cognitive food for different policy options.

and enable future developments. The three-level framework makes it possible to gather findings of these first indications.

it should be feasible to formulate strategies for guiding future development. Once again, this step requires involvement by stakeholders.

and determined the scenario implications for the city's future development. This exercise was used as an input to the Burgos Strategic Plan

arguing that foresight has missed systematically important future developments due to its reliance on categorizations and measurement systems optimized for the Industrial Age models of production.

information on future developments of technology and its interaction with society before they are implemented widely, i e. at early stages of their development when the direction of the innovation process already can be influenced.

the FTA Conference Scientific Committee took the stance that FTAHAS a potentially useful role to play in exploring future developments of complex societal systems and in defining effective policy actions, by way of:

Recently, information visualization techniques have been used with corporate data to map several LDRD investment areas for the purpose of understanding strategic overlaps and identifying potential opportunities for future development outside of our current technologies.

and identify opportunities for future development for each of the five IAS mentioned above. This paper describes the project plan, detailed processes, data sources, tool sets,

1) the future development options in the context of anticipated and unknown challenges,(2) the past decisions that affect the organisation either explicitly or implicitly,

It is based on an idea that roadmaps are like visual narratives describiin the most critical paths of future developments (Phaal and Muller 2009.

openness towards future development options in the ICT context Systematic assessment of the different future options:

In the capacity view, the project endorsed systemic openness towards future development options in the context of ICT,

both during the process of creating consensus views of future developments and during their translation into research policy and the creation of research infrastructure.

but also to a wider view on possible directions of future developments. Based on this conviction they propose several ways to support deeper integration of QL and QT approaches:(

The right understanding where a certain technology is in its TLC is important to estimate its future development,

Received 14 may 2011 Received in revised form 22 june 2012 Accepted 23 august 2012 Available online 28 november 2012 To estimate the future development of one technology

in order to estimate future development trends to make informed decisions on whether to invest in it or not.

and hope that would help decision makers estimate its future development trends. 2. Methodology The model that we build to calculate the TLC for an object technology includes the following steps:

As a first step toward a research agenda for future development of TFA I propose the realization of an international seminar in this field (Evolutionary theory of technological change) bringing together specialists in evolutionary model building and digital Darwinism to discuss the existing approaches

i e. the poor utilization of the potential to be prepared for uncertainties and surprises of future developments 18.

and many aspects related to these systems and their future developments are deeply uncertain. Current attempts at steering the transition toward a more sustainable and cleaner configuration are static

and the goals for future development are specified. In Step II, the way in which this is to be achieved is defined.

to explore future developments, including technology forecasting, technology intelligence, future studies, foresight, and technology assessment 1. In their own ways each of these approaches is used for analyzing technological developments and their potential consequences.

one could predict the future development of this phenomenon. With the rise of computers and user friendly software, more and more mechanisms can be,

which one can sample. 3. 2. 3. Analysis of results One key challenge for airport planners is to design a plan for guiding the future developments of the airport that is robust with respect to the future 36.

and in particular the ratio of capacity to demand, it is clear that the outlined plan does succeed not in robustly guiding the future development of the airport.

It is thus better able to guide the future developments of the airport in light of the uncertainties.

and guiding the future development of an airport. The case illustrated how through the use of nonlinear optimization techniques a performance bandwidth could be established across all the uncertainties.

FTA aims at offering systemic considerations on future developments for dynamically complex issues. The comprehensive exploration of the consequences of combinations of uncertainties that can be offered by EMA is an important component of such future-oriented

and decision-making by helping in anticipating and shaping future developments. The second case demonstrates how EMA can be used for guiding decision-making on plans that shape the long-term development of an airport.

The Prelude scenarios2 are a good example (see Appendix 1). An important input for the scenario work in this group are the comprehensive descriptions of the external drivers for change highlighting the uncertainty of future developments.

and discussed the applicability of future scenarios as narratives to represent different perspectives on present and future developments.

The core concept for the future development is innovative and responsible governance of nanotechnology 45, a concept rooted in 5 The NNI itself is not a funding program.

to gain a better understanding of the future of the issue at stake, the degrees of uncertainty involved, the coherence of future developments, the speed of change of developments,

foresight methods stimulate the user to take future developments and changes into account in a structured way.

Some policy-makers found it difficult to assess the quality of the sources of information regarding future developments.

Especially when policy-makers are confronted with various sources of information that are contradictory in terms of the future developments they describe,

The first online survey was designed also to collect information that would be helpful for understanding both future developments

For instance, active and continuous user involvement have been said to lead to‘unique and valuable ideas for future development'15, to more‘socially and environmentally friendly technologies',to an increased‘quality of innovations'16

and to empower them to reflect on possible and preferable future developments in the context of TV experiences.

Up to the 1980s, futures research focused on forecasting future developments by applying s-curves, Delphi studies and mathematical models 18 20.

predicting and/or explaining future developments with the means of different methods and techniques, e g.,, scenario analysis, technology forecasting, roadmapping,

and analyzing thoughts about the future and (3) analyzing the possible impact of future developments. Second, pressure from the top management level of RWS to present short-term results

opportunities and likely future developments, including those at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizzo scanning may explore novel and unexpected issuues as well as persistent problems, trends and weak signals.

) The Government office of Science in the UK started its national horizon scanning in 2004.6 This activity covers a wide range of S&t forecasts (Delta Scan) and future developments across all policy domains (Sigma Scan.

In a nutshell, the Delphi survey revealed only a small number of topics where experts did not reach a consensus about the likely future development.

Among the multitude of factors that are potentiaall important for successful future development of the content sector the following deserve particular attention:

and to guide the future development of respoonse in controlling these factors. The life cycle model can be linked to six significaan technology domains:

and understand highly complex and often uncertaai future developments by way of addressing, in the same exercise, alternative forms of transformation and the conseqquen roles of different stakeholders.

‘intelligent piggybacking'approach is much more suitable for smaller catching-up economies than the traditional‘grand narratives'approach typically employed in larger advanced economies to define future developments at the cutting edge of a given field of technology.

In general, parliamentarians need better access to knowledge about current and future developments in technology and society.

It is based on an idea that roadmaps are like visual narratives that describe the most critical paths of future developments (Phaal and Muller 2009.

Furthermore, comprehensive stocktaking on earlier foresight studies can be conducted to understand future developments and to position the programme in the light of other ongoing activities.

orienting the efforts towards understanndin diverse interests and shared visions on future developments, thus contributing to better decision-making in a cost-effective way.

34 Furthermoore foresight plays particularly a relevant role in learning on future developments in the areas where there is little

the systematic examination of potential future) problems, threats, opportunities and likely future developments, including those at the margins of current thinking and planning.

and synthesising observations that hold potential for the formulation of pertinent future developments and the derivation of actionable implications on decision-making.

futures. 1. Introduction In future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), the systematti exploration of divergent views on future developments has tended to receive less attention than approaches that foster consensus seeking (Ko nno la et al. 2011;

the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning'and, continuing,

and synthesizing observattion that hold potential for the elaboration of pertinent future developments and the derivation of actionable implicaation for decision-making.

of which future developments are Facing the future: Horizon scanning. 223 potentially significant and thus worth scanning. Here, there may be bias to align scanning exercises along well-established fields