Synopsis:
Future(s): Future scenarios:
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in order to identify different future scenarios. For each scenario, the respective relevance and impacts of the selected regulation have to be determined.
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In some MNCS separate roadmaps are developed based on anticipation of multiple future scenarios 13 cf. also 26.
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new perspectives, Green Paper, COM (2007) 161,4 April 2007.4 OECD, Four Futures scenarios for Higher education, OECD CERI, presented at the meeting of OECD Education Ministers, Athens
Trends and futures scenarios, Eur. J. Educ. 41 (2)( 2006) 169 202.6 P. H. Aghion, et al.
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, J. Hertin, Foresight futures scenarios, Developing and Applying a Participative Strategic planning Tool, Greener Management International (37 Special issue on Foresighting for Development), 2002, pp. 37 52.27 G
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as a more direct process of establishing a desired vision of a communal future not necessarily based on different future scenarios. 5 This latter approach is politically crucial for public organisations trying to develop policy and long-term thinking.
Foresight futures scenarios: developing and applying a participative strategic planning tool. Greener Management International 37:37 52. Böhle, K. 2003.
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It was expected that the project results would describe the future scenarios in detail including diverse uncertainties in such scenarios.
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and 3. design future scenarios for the evolution of sustainable development. This exercise relied on a systematic, ongoing participation process with experts in SD issues.
For several Figure 3 Future scenarios for sustainable development PAGE 322 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 years
it generates a tangible product future scenarios and their functional, parametric and spatial implications which people can easily refer to
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i e. to explore various future scenarios at different degrees of detail, employing a variety of perspectives and methods''(Helbing, 2011);
and alternative futures, preparing legal systems for the matrix of different possibilities that compose the Future scenarios, in this respect, should be used‘‘as a tool to deal with uncertainty,
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Delphi Intensive interviewing Expert panels Futures scenarios Conceptual modelling Hermeneutics Critical Theory Introspective reflection Critical systems thinking Rational Existential Natural Artificial Figure 1
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Hence, principles on how to orient innovation systems through future scenarios require representation and collaboration as well as the integration of different modes of future thinking
5 P. De Smedt, K. Borch, T. Fuller, Future scenarios to inspire innovation, Technol. Forecast. Soc.
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Future scenarios to inspire innovation Peter De Smedt a,, Kristian Borch b, Ted Fuller c a SVR, Research centre of the Flemish Government, Boudewijnlaan 30, B-1000 Brussels, Belgium b Department of Management Engineering
elements of good practices and principles on how to strengthen innovation systems through future scenarios are identified. This is needed because innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Reflexive inquiry Innovation Scenario practice Grand challenges 1. Introduction In the context of this paper, future scenarios can be seen as narratives set in the future to explore how the society would change
Future scenarios substantially differ from predictions, i e.,, extrapolations or trends, substituting the criterion of plausibility for probability 1. Scenarios are not equivalent to images of the future,
and using future scenarios Scenario analysis is practiced across many domains and is restricted not to specialized futurists or scenario specialists 3. Developing and using scenarios can contribute at various levels of society by generating appropriate inputs for planning
& Social Change Developing and using future scenarios can: -contribute to society's strategic intelligence by stimulating future-oriented thinking
we analyze several scenario exercises to better understand the role future scenarios can play as a tool for orienting innovation systems.
and using future scenarios present a window of opportunity to effectively drive decisions?(ii) How can developing
and using future scenarios enhance the legitimacy for action?(iii) How can developing and using future scenarios provide evidence to decision-makers empowering the stakeholders involved?
The three questions represent a specific perspective linking action and decision-makingwith issues of (i) emergence,
and using future scenarios in the case studies from Appendix 1 . When the motivation is oriented towards developing scenarios,
where the motivation is oriented towards using the future scenarios for strategic discussions. The focus here is less on
and timeframe revealing windows of opportunity thus linking decision-making with future scenarios. The legitimizing aspect of this is the creation of a common understanding of challenges
and using future scenarios to inspire innovation do not only deal with the collection of data and models;
and how future scenarios can inspire innovation. 3 http://www. naturalstep. org/./438 P. De Smedt et al./
The question that emerges is how we can learn from using and developing future scenarios to assist in the orientation of innovation systems?
and using future scenarios present a window of opportunity to effectively drive decisions?;(ii) How can developing
and using future scenarios enhance the legitimacy for action?;and (iii) How can developing and using future scenarios provide evidence to decision-makers empowering the stakeholders involved?.
By questioning representation from a policy perspective and deconstructing future scenario practice, we were able to (re) construct findings to the above questions:(
Principles on how to orient innovation systems through future scenarios will require conditions for collaboration. Table 2 Linking groups of future scenario practice from a policy perspective with modes of future thinking.
or contributions to the enablers for orientating innovation systems through future scenarios (i e. pros and cons). Our analysis of the case studies listed in Appendix 1 suggests that a variety of modes of futures thinking,
we argue that future scenarios developed with a combination of well-designed modes of futures thinking will provide richer future images that go beyond the probable that is determined by the past and present.
and discussed the applicability of future scenarios as narratives to represent different perspectives on present and future developments.
and using future scenarios as a tool for orienting innovation systems. Our analyses of the scenario case studies from Appendix 1 revealed elements of good practice and implications on how to better address innovation through future scenarios.
For instance different modes of futures thinking have been identified through the process of deconstruction. In this paper, we argue that these modes of futures thinking are shown to contribute in different ways to orientating innovation systems.
We also want to Table 3 Different modes of futures thinking for orienting innovation systems via future scenarios.
Modes of futures thinking Future scenarios shaped by Underpinning Logic pros and cons with respect to orient innovation systems Intuitive Surprise and confrontation Think the unthinkable
. Borch, From Future scenarios to Roadmapping: Guiding Exploratory Innovation and Strategy, the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA:
Science.PublicPolicyVol37\3. Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries.pdf
Four future scenarios In developing the four scenarrio the workshop participants considered the impaac of ICT innovation, user behaviours and other factors on the transformation of the creative content industries.
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