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or from a public policy perspective, is confronted with the need to navigate increasingly complex decision landscapes.

because in particular public policy strategies fulfill an orienting function for many private actors as well, and in the best case play an implicit coordinating function for their decision-making.

Public policy in Knowledge-based Economies. Foundations and Frameworks, Edward Elgar, 2003.12 H. Nowotny, P. Scott, M. Gibbons, Rethinking Science.

A prime example of a potential major impact of public policies is the current initiative in several countries to‘strongly encourage'universities to patent their research results,

For sensible future-oriented public policies and sound university strategies a better understanding of the current situation is needed,

Public policy 28 (4)( 2001) 247 258.18 EUROPOLIS, The European research area: a New Frontier for Europe? la lettre OST, No. 22,2001. 19 L. Georghiou, Evolving frameworks for European collaboration in research and technology, Res.

The authors analyze the role of scenario planning to prepare public policy-making for the uncertainties and surprises of future developments and better manage complex decisions involving conflicting societal interests.

but the potential of scenario planning to prepare public policy-making for the uncertainties and surprises of future developments and better manage complex decisions involving conflicting societal interests is clearly not fully utilized.

Their use and impacts in the realm of public policy is treated, however, often perfunctorily. Environmental policy-making is a good example.

diverse audiences for public policy scenarios often require some type of information about relative risks. In addition, the question of a potential correlation between scenario approaches and impacts and effectiveness of use require further evaluative efforts.

Action Res. 21 (6)( 2008) 459 477.14 M. Howlett, M. Ramesh, Studying public policy, Policy Cycles and Policy Subsystems, Oxford university Press, Oxford

, 2005.15 T. R. Dye, Understanding Public policy, Prentice hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1984.1206 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198

Foresight Inclusivity Critical systems Heuristics Nanotechnology 1. Institutional Foresight Institutional Foresight programmes(‘Foresight'hereafter) now occupy a prominent position in the minds of public policy makers.

Barker and Peters'5 taxonomy describes six levels of cognitive difficulty for public policy makers in terms of the policy field's character as follows:

Creating, Using and Manipulating Scientific knowledge for Public policy, Edinburgh University Press, 1993.6 J. Stiles, Neural plasticity and cognitive development, Developmental Neuropsychology 18 (2)( 2000) 237 272.7 D

Most foresight practice in Europe has been focussed on public policy making and especially policy making in science and technology

'In a coordinated approach with other elements8 of public policy, FNR Foresight was to provide the basis:

Science and Public policy 35, no. 5: 361 71. OECD. 1991. Choosing priorities in science and technology.

Science and Public policy 27, no. 6: 433 42. Wehrmeyer, W.,J. Chenoweth, A. Clayton, M. Fernandez-Lopez,

and the idea of shaping the future by influencing public policy and strategic decisions. 3 In their seminal paper on‘Inclusive foresight'Loveridge and Street (2005) argue that the credibiilit of foresight is dependent on extending participation to social stakeholders, especially those not normally seeking participation themselves.

Most of those belonging to this age group have no right to vote nor are entitled they to exercise influence as individuals on public policy making in any other form.

Science and Public policy 28, no. 6: 453 64. Salo, A, . and J.-P. Salmenkaita. 2002.

expecting one general type of Knowledge dynamics (reaching from science to innovation) and one unique set of appropriate supportive public policies.

(ERA), European commission, Luxembourg, 2008.19 D. Braun, Special issue on‘‘The political coordination of knowledge and innovation policies'',Science and Public policy 35 (4)( 2008.

the case of the European union, Journal of European Public policy 3 (3)( 1996) 318 338.22 S. Kuhlmann, Future governance of innovation policy in Europe three scenarios, Research policy 30

the open method of co-ordination in innovation policy, Journal of European Public policy 11 (2)( 2004) 249 266.24 R. Barre',Essai d'interpre'tation de

institutions versus policies, Science and Public policy 34 (5)( 2007) 303 316. A. Schoen et al.//Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 241 43 S. Kuhlmann, ERA-Dynamics Project Strategic Report 2006 2007:

regulation and public policy 8. The shift from technocratic decision making towards more democratic processes can be captured in the concept of governance.

restrain or block public policies are recognised. It also involves the positive contributions of corporations, institutions and associations to enhance public policy within a new framework,

which emphasises the interactive and interdependent nature of the new regulatory environment. According to Sheng 9, governance is the process of decision making and the process by

The implications of this approach for relationships between the society and public policy explain the shift from the government to governance.

Sustainable development can be characterised as long term social learning oriented by public policies, which are driven by a national plan of between regions and within regions endogenous development.

identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge, Science and Public policy 37 (1)( 2010) 7 18.2 S. Rijkers-Defrasne, E. Amanatidou, A. Braun, A. Pechmann,

4 N. Damrongchai, P. Satangput, G. Tegart, C. Sripaipan, Future technology analysis for biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific, Science and Public policy 37 (1)( 2010

-105. von Schomberg, R. 2005),‘The precautionary principle and its normative challenges'',in Fisher, E.,Jones, J. and von Schomberg, R. Eds), The Precautionary principle and Public policy Decision making, Edward

especially backcasting, can be used to assist public policy formulation. Backcasting is particularly interesting method in this context,

and guided by a set of public policies, formulated at various administrative levels, and it is geared to satisfy the real estate demands of citizens, business and institutions.

economic models and public policies towards SD. 2. Horizontal axis. Showed the availability of resources needed to achieve the sustainable development goals in the future.

public policies regarding urban development are decentralised very much at the regional and local level. Regional governments play a clear role in setting territorial strategies,

and intense consumption (see Figure 5). Public policies related to urban development are implemented not effectively because of social and economic pressures.

from industry to public policy, IPTS Report 73 (2003. 8 J. D. Linton, S. T. Walsh, Introduction.

Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 135 9. Denning, S. 2005. Transformational innovation: A journey by narrative.

and refers to the inability to understand how the components of the environment might change (e g. in the case of the automotive industry, the driver of change of ecological concern by public policy-makers in Europe:

Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 208 21. Berg, P m. Leinonen, V. Leivo, and J. Pihlajamaa. 2002.

Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 140 52. Cagnin, C.,M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, and R. Barré

Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 222 31. Kwak, Y. H, . and C. W. Ibbs. 2002.

Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 178 90. Ahola, J.,T. Ahlqvist, M. Ermes, J. Myllyoja,

Now, she is also a visiting scholar in the School of Public policy at Georgia Institute of technology.

and of Public policy, at Georgia Tech, where he continues as the co-director of the Technology policy and Assessment Center.

In both countries, public policy activities to foster nanotechnology were accompanied by efforts to establish governance structures to coordinate interactions between actors of the innovation system.

Public policy 39 (2012) 140 152.10 M. Boden, C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, K. Haegeman, T. Konnola, Facing the Future:

Public policy 37 (1)( 2010) 31 40.16 L. Georghiou, M. Keenan, Evaluation and impact of foresight, in: L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, M. Keenan,

which may affect future European public policies by applying horizon scanning and foresight. She has worked in several foresight projects mainly in the advancement of the application of foresight as an instrument for policy-making formulation.

School of Public policy, Georgia Institute of technology, Atlanta, GA 30332-0345, USA d College of Computer science & Technology, Huaqiao University, Xiamen, 361021, PR China e

Public policy 27 (5)( 2000) 310 320.24 F. Narin, E. Noma, R. Perry, Patents as indicators of corporate technological strength, Res.

and of Public policy, at Georgia Tech, where he remains Co-director of the Technology policy and Assessment Center.

and‘policy-making'for the act or process of designing policies by those in charge of designing (public policy.

Res. 128 (2001) 282 289.25 J. Dewey, The Public and its Problems, Holt and Company, New york, 1927.26 G. J. Busenberg, Learning in organizations and public policy, J

. Public policy 21 (2001) 173 189.27 J. De La Mothe Innovation strategies in Interdependent States, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd.

In both countries, the public policy activities to foster nanotechnology were accompanied by efforts to establish governance structures to coordinate interactions between actors of the innovation system.

Both in the US and Germany, actors conducting early FTA did not claim to have a broad impact on public policy,

Public policy 39 (2)( 2012) 140 152.13 A. Schoen T. Konnola, P. Warnke, R. Barré, S. Kuhlmann, Tailoring foresight to field specificities, Futures 43 (April 3 2011) 232 242.14 M. Weber

Public policy 39 (2)( 2012) 153 165.15 K. Haegeman, F. Scapolo, A. Ricci, E. Marinelli, A. Sokolov, premises and practices in combining quantitative and qualitative FTA METHODS

Exploring Futures for Policy making), Amsterdam University Press, Amsterdam, 2010.8 M. Howlett, M. Ramesh, Studying Public policy.

Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer-verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008.11 T. Ko nno la, K. Haegeman, Embedding foresight in transnational research programming, Science and Public policy 39

) 219 235.17 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting EU innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Science and Public policy 39 (2012) 140

.,Norcross, GA, United states c Industrial & Systems Engineering, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA, USA d Public policy, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA, USA e

and of Public policy at Georgia Tech, where he co-directs the Technology policy and Assessment Center.

Challenges of user involvement in future technology analysis, Science and Public policy 37 (2010) 51 61.20 C. Lettl, User involvement competence for radical innovation, Journal of Engineering and Technology management

%and the later from 30%to 60%in relation to implementation of public policies. 3. 1. 4. Negative results The main problem occurred in the translation of

and Public policy (2012)( forthcoming. 41 C. Cagnin, D. Loveridge, O. Saritas, FTA and equity: new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (2011) 279 291.42 K. Koschatzky, Foresight as a governance concept at the interface between global challenges and regional innovation potentials, European Planning

lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues, Science and Public policy (2012)( forthcoming. 49 T. Ko nno la, A. Salo, C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, E. Vilkkumaa, Facing the future:

scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning, Science and Public policy (2012)( forthcoming. 50 C. Bezold, C. Bettles, C. Juech, E. Michelson, J. Peck, K. Wilkins, Foresight for Smart Globalization:

Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010003-04 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 3 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages

The contributors to this special section of Science and Public policy believe that forward-looking approaches need further tailoring

Introduction Science and Public policy February 2010 4 anticipate and shape future technological developmennts mainly, technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment.

trend impact analysis Introduction Science and Public policy February 2010 5 Six functions of FTA for policy-making are:

and Public policy explore how both public and private organisations are able to deal with the issue of uncertainty by incorpooratin forward-looking methodologies into their decision-making processes.

**Introduction Science and Public policy February 2010 6 scans in the UK, The netherlands and Denmark, as developed in the ERA NET Forsociety Project.

Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010007-12 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 7 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages

Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 8 Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of potential future) problems, threats,

and Public policy February 2010 9 horizon scans can be narrower in scope (only looking for new technologies),

Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 10 Joining up the data To compare the data of the different scans

administrative and legal Public services Politics State Global Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 11 first discussion with this network was held

and Public policy February 2010 12 discussions with representatives from different ministrries The primary data for The netherlands scan were collected by the COS Horizon scanning team

and public policy high-impact issues Further Communication events New material Issue analysis and synthesis Workshop Cross-linkages With policy Themed Scenarios Extranet Peer review Discussion groups Updated database Finalised Themed Scenarios Final database Reports and multimedia Output data analysis phase

Review phase Delivery phase Research phase OST Horizon scanning Centre Figure 1. Schematic design of UK horizon scan Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February

The focus of the UK scan is on‘public policy'(not explicitly government policy, although governmeen is intended the main client).

Morton Wied Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 14 responsible, whatever its political constitution. Issuue were selected on the basis of indications in the literature of either positive and/or negative impact on these values.

The report contained recommendations for Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 15 specific foresight activities which still have to be executed.

and Public policy February 2010 16 weak signals and wild cards that may be used to assees the robustness of results that may come from other forward-looking tools as planning, scenarios and quantitative modelling.

and evoking important questiion around the future than in providing clear-cut Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 17 answers (Medina Vasquez, 2006).

Evaluation, Impact and Learning, Anchor paper Theme 2. Paper presented at Second joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 18 International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:

Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010019-12 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 19 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages

Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 20 with the creative environment in which content activiitie unfold that make the creative content sector a fertile ground for radical innovations or disruptions

Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 21 elements and showing how the implementation of those elements in combination enables us to disentanngl the complexity of the disruptive forces influenccin a sector

adapted from Wiesand and Söndermann (2005) Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 22 a mass audience.

experts) Workshop (stakeholders) Workshop (restricted, client) Impact assessment Figure 2. Overview of methodology building blocks Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010

and building trust and awareness are part Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 24 of the equation.

Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 25 and related variants, uncertain issues, potential disrupttion and the likelihood of possible identified trends/issues.

and Public policy February 2010 26 remain crucial for the future success of the creative content sector.

and Public policy February 2010 27 promises associated with user created content, sociia software and Web 2. 0 are realised.

Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 28 Step 5: Policy analysis Our adaptive foresight on the creative content industrrie was concluded with a policy analysis,

2008) Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 29 mediating between skills and demand for skills.

Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 30 With regard to the impact assessment aspect of the methodology

Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010031-10 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 31 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages

Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 32 Nurture direct links to senior policy-makers.

Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 33 evaluation of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) should be based upon an assessment of foresiigh quality in terms of the conjectures produced,

and Public policy February 2010 34 been a serious attempt to understand its effects in aggregate.

and practical implementation Involvement of political actors in the process Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 35 asked what they thought were the best contemporary foresight organizations,

synchronization with the business agenda of the organization Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 36 Ireland, Japan, Finland and the UK;

and implementation of technology policy Understand the best methods and use of foresight Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 37 Results:

the foresiigh capacity and stakeholder organizations need Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 38 to be linked with

Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 39 Compared to most of the other nations represennte in our study,

and Public policy February 2010 40 is done not, then the exercise is of minimal or no value.

Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010041-10 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 41 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages

Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 42 new diseases such as SARS and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) with variants such as H5n1;

and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 43 The concept has been extended in the European union's Seventh Framework Program to the possibiliitie at the interface of micro nano systems and the living world.

Phucharoenchanachai (2005) Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 44 In Phase II, the objective was to determine directiion for future R&d

emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 45 possibly hinder the progress of technology developmment

The model Was developed in Roadmapping I Developed in Roadmapping II Figure 3. Structure of technology roadmaps Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 46 proposed at the workshop

and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 47 find more technology applications. The additional technology applications identified were:

to combating EIDS Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 48 Table 3. Roadmap for development of EID diagnostics 2007 2012 2013 2017

multi-agent diagnostic devices linked to automated data collection and analysis Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 49 APEC diagnosis center,

and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 50 identification of‘technology roadmaps'that are to be applied to a wider geographical area and more diverse level of technology capacity and socioeconommi development.

Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010051-11 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 51 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages

User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 52 Indeed, although‘the consumer'has always been important,

User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 53 of the diffusion theory has to do with its proinnovvatio bias and the assumed linearity of the innovaatio and adoption process.

and at a more latent level that are quite difficult to grasp User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 54 narrow and technology-centric scope of many projects.

i-City's User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 55 large-scale living lab was the main research location.

evaluation Figure 1. Schematic overview of the three research phases User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 56 activities and finds it difficult to identify with the life

and Public policy February 2010 57 the use of mobile applications to support their existiin products and services.

User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 58 disregarded, this choice illustrates that decisions are made sometimes at the expense of the user-centred rationale.

54/5 Tourist information (Tourist cluster) 3. 87/5 Mobile help for studies (and Work study cluster) 3, 43/5 User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February

Q2, Q5 and Q6 User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 60 Conclusion In this paper, we have focused on the shift from traditiiona technology push to more user-oriented and user

User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 61 Latour B 1993. We Have Never Been Modern.

Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010063-16 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 63 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages

Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 64 avoids the functional form restrictions implicit in running a regression of some type.

The underlyyin justification for public policies to support innovaatio is provided by the economic argument that otherwise the private sector would invest less in innovaativ activities than is socially desirable.

Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 65 consensus not only among political actors but also among organizations representing business interests.

To the best of our knowledge, it is unique in Europe as a main promotional policy Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 66 either matching approaches (as in this paper) or selecctio

+-positive (negative) and statistically significant effect at 10%test level Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 67 find a positive policy effect but in some cases

%Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 68 significantly lower than the respective share of projeect of these scientific fields.

CTI database, authors'calculations Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 69 firms which are subsidized not out

G g a-=0 N a Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 70 (6) where and is the kernel7 at the point In a fifth step,

5%test level Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 71 innovation performance than non-subsidized firms (at the 5%test level.

5%test level Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 72‘low-subsidy'firms from that of the respective groups of non-subsidized firms.

Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 73 Appendix Table A1.

Italian (continued) Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 74appendix (continued) Table A3.

*See footnotes to Table A3 for key (continued) Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 75 Appendix (continued) Table A5.

*See footnotes to Table A3 for key (continued) Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 76 Appendix (continued) Table A7.

and Public policy February 2010 77 Notes 1. See Bozeman (2000); Georghiou and Roessner (2000; and Feller (2007) for recent reviews of the central issues related to the evaluation of the effectiveness of technology programmes.

See also Science and Public policy (34 (10), 679 752) dedicaate to‘New frontiers in evaluation'.'Finally, see OECD (2006a) for an analysis more from the point of view of the policy-maker;

and Public policy February 2010 78 3. The questionnaire may be obtained from the authors. It is available in German,

Technology transfer and public policy: a review of research and theory. Research policy, 29 (4/5), 627 655.

Science and Public policy, 34 (10), 681 690. Garcia-Quevado, G 2004. Do public subsidies complement businees R&d?

Science and Public policy, 35 (4), 277 288. Hall, B and J Van Reenen 2000. How effective are fiscal incentiive for R&d?

An overview of public policies to support innovation, OECD Economics department Working papers No. 456. Paris: OECD. Klette, T J, J Moen,

Science and Public policy, 28 (4), 247 258. Polt, W and G Streicher 2005. Trying to capture additionality in Framework programme 5:

so that is what we will Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 135 139 doi: 10.1093/scipol/scs026 The Author 2012.

mind-set transformation. 1. Introduction Exercises to explore the future are considered to be importaan for strategic planning, decision-making support and for public policy formulation,

This paper discusses this decision-making environment and a relevant Brazilian Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 245 257 doi:

demands may be associated with innovation, competitiveness, long-term government planning, subsidies to S&t public policies, and the future of complex themes, such as climate change, demography, biodiversity, bioethanol, energy efficiency etc.

Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 258 270 doi: 10.1093/scipol/scs006 Advance Access published on 17 february 2012 The Author 2012.

Braun, D. 2008)‘ Organising the political coordination of knowledge and innovation policies',Science and Public policy, 35: 227 39.

The Public policies of the Home of Scientist, pp. 191 220. Stockholm: Almqvist & Wiksell International.

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This new orientation is perhaps nowhere more in evidence than at the EU level, where grand societal Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 140 152 doi:

and investment priorities for public policies Evaluate existing strategies against potential futures, and devise future-proof strategies Develop reference material for policy-makers

thereby resulting in better informed public policies or organisational strategies Provide anticipatory strategic intelligence to innovation system actors,

Increased mobility, the instantaneoou impact of events through social media and the socioculttura interconnections linking Europe to the rest of Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 153 165 doi:

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