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Analysis for radical design Scott W. Cunningham Policy analysis Section, Faculty of technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Postbus 5015,2600 GA Delft, The netherlands a r
new methods for quantitative long-term policy analysis, Santa monica: The RAND Pardee Center, 2003.6 L. Fleming, Recombinant uncertainty in technological search, Manage.
New methods for Quantitative, Long-term Policy analysis, RAND Corporation, 2003.3 Thomas Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, University of Chicago Press, 1970.4 Theodore J. Gordon, Chaos
however, rather slightly, confirming insights from the policy analysis literature that it is very difficult to change core belief systems in the short term.
New methods for Quantitative, Longer-Term Policy analysis, 2003, RAND MR-1626-RPC. 11 C. Selin, Trust and illusive force of scenarios, Futures 38 (1
His research interests are integrated environmental assessments, long-term policy analysis and institutional arrangements for effective scenario planning. He has authored
From a policy analysis perspective, the transport system, with its components and their interrelations, could be understood as an abstract conceptual model
a proposed method of policy analysis'',Energy Policy, Vol. 10 No. 4, pp. 337-44. Robinson, J. 1990),Futures under glass:
In the early 1970s15 this more and more changed to a means for better policy analysis. During the 1980's, TA developed towards a policy instrument,
In the United states TA kept to policy analysis, while in Europe the approach is focussed more on addressing different social groups.
He received his engineering degree at Ecole Centrale (Paris). His key qualifications are Sustainability Policy analysis and impact assessment, and foresight studies.
Policy analysis, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2010.6 P. Eykhoff, System Identification: Parameter and State Estimation, Wiley Interscience, London, 1974.7 W. E. Walker, V. A w. J. Marchau, D. Swanson, Addressing deep uncertainty using adaptive policies:
New methods for Quantitative, Long-term Policy analysis, RAND, Santa monica, California, 2003.9 K. van der Heijden, Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, Wiley, 1996.10 H. A. Lindstone, M. Turoff, The Delphi method:
and communicating uncertainties in model-based policy analysis, Int. J. Technol. Policy Manag. 10 (2010) 299 315.17 A l. Porter, W. B. Ashton, G. Clar, J. F. Coates, K. Cuhls, S w. Cunningham
Change 77 (2010) 924 939.24 W. E. Walker, S. A. Rahman, J. Cave, Adaptive policies, policy analysis,
The 30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, St gallen, Switzerland, 2012.38 S. Bankes, Exploratory modeling for policy analysis, Oper.
Erik Pruyt is the Assistant professor of System Dynamics and Policy analysis at the Faculty of technology, Policy and Management of Delft University of Technology.
New methods for Quantitative, Long-term Policy analysis, RAND, Santa monica, California, 2003.8 J. H. Kwakkel, W. E. Walker, V. A w. J. Marchau, Classifying
and communicating uncertainties in model-based policy analysis, Int. J. Technol. Policy Manag. 10 (2010) 299 315.9 Y. Ben-Haim, Information-Gap Decision theory:
Prediction, Island Press, Washington, D c, 2000.12 S. Bankes, Exploratory modeling for policy analysis, Oper. Res. 4 (1993) 435 449.13 D. B. Agusdinata, Exploratory Modeling and Analysis:
Erik Pruyt is Assistant professor of System Dynamics and Policy analysis at the Faculty of technology, Policy and Management of Delft University of Technology.
Section 3 describes how we conceptualize inspiring issues and paradigms from different scientific disciplines such as business and innovation research, futures studies, sociology and policy analysis.
a sector analysiis a Delphi survey, a scenario process leading to an analysis of issues and a final policy analysis.
The final policy analysis stage was restricted to discussions with the client, i e. the European commission. The varying degrees of particippatio enabled us to handle better the complexity and uncertainties regarding the evolution of the creatiiv content sector,
The Delphi was meant to help reduce the uncertainntie associated with some of the impacts we came across in the analysis. Sector Analysis Realtime online Delphi Scenario development Policy analysis Issues analysis ICT key trends Trends in actor behaviour Transformation pressures in the CC
The policy analysis phase aimed to look not only at the issues as such and potential European policiie to address them,
which we could base our policy analysis. The Delphi was therefore useful to address these uncertainties in more depth.
Policy analysis Our adaptive foresight on the creative content industrrie was concluded with a policy analysis, aimed at deriving policy options for a thriving creative conteen sector in Europe in the future.
While all the steps leading to the policy analysis revealed important findings on potential directions of change and consequently possible challenges for policy-making,
In that sense the policy analysis stage fulfilled its objectives to a large extent. However, the above finding raises the question of the appropriateness of carrying out a FTA on such a diverse sector with a specific policy area like R&d in mind.
and ways to intensify the extent of public input and debate Policy and implementation aspects Policy analysis:
however, the primarily quantitative policy analysis in Liu et al. 2011)).)) We aim to remedy this by studying the processes
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