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and policy-makers in particular, actually protect themselves against the fallacies of false promises and over-optimistic expectations expressed

and not widely accepted among policy-makers, either. In early phases of opinion-building, open consultation and participation are necessary to exchange information,

These kinds of insights should then serve as an input for today's policy-makers to prioritise, for instance, emerging technologies and design corresponding policies.

14) where policy-makers interact with RTD stakeholders in learning processes and build new coalitions and institutions based on the use of distributed strategic intelligence 15.

Delphi survey 1. Introduction 1. 1. Background In the last few years, the issue of regulatory impact assessment (RIA) has become very attractive, in particular among European policy-makers.

policy-makers involved in regulatory policies are being held more accountable for the significant economic resources, as well as the political capital invested in regulatory management systems now established in most OECD countries.

which was identified as a necessary instrument for policy-makers, especially regulatory bodies, also in order to foster the development of new markets by Blind et al. 8. Besides the tradition in regulatory impact assessment,

and policy-makers responsible for regulatory regimes but not for science and technology policy in the narrower sense to identify future requirements for regulations

The proposed three-level structure of futures or‘cascading'visions offers several advantages for policy-makers at various Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75

policy-makers, analysts, and universities themselves (see, e g. 2 8). The reasons for that are manifold

the role of university staff, students and the civil society at large, policy-makers or businesses might differ significantly in distinct‘futures'for the EU. Hence,

and policy-makers (among many other fields, for STI policies); 12 conducting various types of research. 13 Academies emerged in some countries as early as the end of the 16th century 1, pp. 5 6,

consultancy for NGOS and policy-makers at national/regional/local levels is changing. Second, new roles are emerging,

national and regional policy-makers, businesses, societal groups, students, academic staff, etc. as well as management models (collegial vs. professional,

The second refers to lists of priorities and proposed actions (for different stakeholders, in this case e g. university rectors and deans, regional, national and EU policy-makers, businesses and local communities as partners of universities), inputs

however, not Table 2 (continued) ERIA EU Double success Successful multi-speed EU Innovation systems, co-operation among key players a Intense communication among businesses, academia, policy-makers,

and policy-makers to set RTDI priorities relevant for enhancing competitiveness; strong academia industry co-operation, mutually beneficial, intense links among large firms and SMES both inside and across flourishing regions Coordinated, joint efforts supported by EU funds

'students, the wider research community, businesses, policy-makers and the civil society. They possess excellent‘navigation'skills to find their way in this complex world, often characterised by conflicting requirements of the various stakeholders.

The Humboldtian model of universities higher education and basic research as almost inseparable‘Siamese twins'is still a prevailing notion in many professors'and policy-makers'mindsets.

'What is striking in this respect is the sheer lack of alternative visions in the 2007 Green Paper on The European research area 3. A major benefit for policy-makers (at the EU,

EU policy-makers might also use this structured way of futures-building as one of the tools assisting their initiatives to align national policies;

Although Finnish policy-makers, industrial community, scientists and citizens have followed international comparisons and related discussion with great interest,

as well as a future-oriented survey exploring future visions of relevant national actors like industries, policy-makers and politicians, research community and future generations,

This feature enabled by the composite structure has proven vitally important for both synthesis-making as well as drawing meaningful and relevant conclusions for policy-makers.

Fromthe policy-makers'point of viewthere is a clear demand for an instrument providingwell argued, sound and tangible results to serve as the basis for informed action.

The feedback and requests from policy-makers for further information regarding the results of the barometer indicate that there is a call for means of bringing the expertise of the technoscienntifi community to the use and utilization of political decision-makers.

He, as well as his background organization is maintaining a sustained effort in developing new instruments for informed action for policy-makers.

and transmitting them to policy-makers as an input to policy conceptualisation and design. Facilitating policy implementation:

Scenario planning Decision support Political and institutional context Evaluation 1. Introduction Policy-makers and business leaders often face strategic decisions with uncertain future outcomes.

or several aspects of using scenario planning 2. This article merges the findings from this review with the results from a workshop with environmental scenario practitioners and policy-makers.

evaluation and learning amongst environmental scenario practitioners and policy-makers about new forms of long-term strategic policy-making and their enabling conditions.

9. Ideally, scenario planning helps policy-makers making better sense of changes in their external environment, spotting early warning signals and refining perceptions of existing or emerging problems and corresponding problem-solving strategies 10.

Policy-makers ask for concrete advice and operational benefits taking into account the limitations to shaping the future 18.

international organisations, private sector, public advisory bodies and research organisations as well as a couple of policy-makers to discuss current practice, success factors,

and policy-makers the authors conclude that new approaches are necessary to increase the relevance and impact of foresight exercises 31.

However, one might argue that the higher costs of inductive approaches in the beginning might pay off later in the process given the fact that unmet expectations about the ability of scenarios to deliver novel insights about future developments oftentimes lead to frustration or rejection of the approach by policy-makers.

and information demands by policy-makers. The literature discusses the notion of scenarios often being hollow diamonds that sparkle alluringly

In addition, policy-makers and strategists often have not only different time horizons than scenario planners, but also very different attention foci.

Creating the right incentives for policy-makers to engage in scenario planning gain trust into the process

Getting policy-makers to trust the credibility, relevance and legitimacy of the approach will require more than methodological refinements.

A major impediment to the utilization of FTA results is their unfamiliarity to managers and policy-makers.

such as senior technology managers or policy-makers. They would not be expected to perform the analyses themselves. In contrast, the second b3-minq example indicates that others engaged in technology analyses have special needs too.

, policy-makers and managers who weigh emerging technology considerations as either their main focus or as contributing factors,

This vision has de facto been considered by policy-makers at governmental and European level as the reference document for the orientation of research in this area.

For foresight activities on emerging issues that are not yet proven to be of high policy importance it may be difficult to engage policy-makers in the process.

specific efforts were made to engage policy-makers but with limited immediate success. This may be partly due to the initial positioning of the projects as informative rather than instrumental,

but they were meant not as such to engage policy-makers in the process. In practice, the technology foresight in Korea and China has borrowed lots of experiences from technology foresight projects in Japan. 3. 3. Priorities foresight (consensual perspectives

In many cases, policy-makers do not refer to the sources used when decisions are made. Almost all the analysed projects have outcomes that can be characterised as consensual.

This would suggest the need for continuing evolution of the format of the conference so as to engage policy-makers directly with issues in

offering scenarios and integrated solutions to support policy-makers. Currently Peter works at the Research centre of the Flemish Government, where he is in charge of foresight and sustainability assessment.

First, within a framework of tighter governmental budgets and stronger international competition, policy-makers involved in regulatory policies are being held more accountable for the significant economic resources,

and transmitting them to policy-makers Facilitating policy implementation Enhancing the capacity for change within a given policy field by building a common awareness of current and future challenges,

The ubiquitous informal expectations circulate within and between groups of developers and policy-makers, and, inevitably, they do their legitimating and guiding work.

Therefore, policy-makers'responses to sustainability are multifaceted choices that must consider the interdependencies between the many dimensions of sustainable development.

B Indirect impact This means that the project results (such as lists of priorities, the most important research topics, policy recommendations) were used for informing policy-makers.

and that is a major benefit for decision-makers, be they directors of research institutes, deans and rectors of universities, business people, or policy-makers.

and orchestration of activities 3. Policy-makers are concerned naturally with changes and surprises with disruptive impacts on their domains.

as well as co-operation among policy-makers working at regional, national and supranational level. This overall question needs to be divided into several‘sub-questions,

and methods can better support policy-makers since societal challenges and complex interrelated systems require a more holistic and systemic understanding of situations.

De Smedt et al. 5 claim that grand challenges require policy-makers to address a variety of interrelated issues

when policy-makers need to know about new and unforeseen challenges that could disrupt their activities.

but better support policy-makers in their job. These tendencies raise important questions on the value and scope of combining methods,

In FTA one of the main arguments for more use of quantitative approaches may come from policy-makers, who,

but also amongst its clients (in particular policy-makers. Trust from policy-makers in outcomes from an FTA exercise may be undermined by differences between the expectations of decision-makers who should ultimately use the outcomes of FTA,

and what FTA can really deliver. For example, Georghiou and Harper 66 point at the concern that administrations may want to harness FTA

Finally, policy-makers are concerned still very much with the shorter term, which may have its influence on (lack of) trust. 11 5. Overcoming barriers:

Unavoidably, policy-makers and stakeholders will assign a higher plausibility to scenarios that somehow resonate with their own visions.

On the other hand, policy-makers and stakeholders will contribute to shaping the future through their decisions and their actions.

Another major avenue of research is on the communication of EMA that results to policy-makers and FTA practitioners.

These grand challenges require policy-makers to address a variety of interrelated issues, which are built upon yet uncoordinated and dispersed bodies of knowledge.

and by widening the perspectives and knowledge base of researchers, policy-makers and business decision-makers. -be useful in creating a common language and understanding between the various interest groups.

Grand challenges require that policy-makers address a variety of interrelated issues, which are built upon as yet uncoordinated and dispersed bodies of knowledge.

i e. scenarios intended to provide a guiding vision of the future for policy-makers 46. Scenario building and planning was developed further for management purposes, for example through the works of Pierre Wack

offering scenarios and integrated solutions to support policy-makers. Currently Peter works at the Research centre of the Flemish Government where he is in charge of foresight and sustainability assessment.

and inventors but a couple of people fromindustry and two policy-makers also took part. The focus was mainly on Europe but one expert fromchina,

This lack of impact has led policy-makers to require that the content of foresight exercises relate to current political agendas

Policy-makers who focus on long-term policy issues can use foresight methods during strategic policy-making processes to arrive at a better understanding of the future and its uncertainties

and the barriers and leverage points experienced by policy-makers are described and compared at the local and the national level.

, that of policy-makers who have applied the results of foresight methods in policy-making processes. The insights presented in this paper are based on recent policy document analyses

what policy-makers consider to be added its value. In various studies, the added value for strategic policy-making processes has been emphasised:

the use of the scenario analysis method makes policy-makers more aware of the future, future changes and the policy implications,

whether these theoretical assumptions correspond to the experiences of policy-makers in their everyday practice. According to a recent study by the European Environmental Agency 6, there is insufficient empirical evidence of the added value of scenario analysis in general,

that of policy-makers who have applied scenario analysis and using their perceptions as a measure of the perceived added value.

the motives policy-makers have for using the scenario analysis method, and the perceived levers and barriers.

How familiar and experienced are policy-makers with the use of scenario analysis methods? What are their motives for applying scenario analysis methods?

What, according to policy-makers, is added the value of using foresight methods in strategic policy processes? Which levers and barriers do they perceive

These research questions imply a clear focus on policy-making in the public domain (see, for example, 15) and on the perceptions of policy-makers,

Policy-makers from the provincial organisation were involved more thoroughly in the development of the scenarios. The empirical evidence for this paper is based on three indeept interviews with policy-makers who were involved closely in the development of the scenarios, the analysis of the scenario studies,

and the environment plans. N. Rijkens-Klomp P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 19 The Overschie case involves the development and use of a qualitative scenario analysis as a strategic building block for a new strategic coalition

'Thirteen interviews were conducted with strategists and policy-makers. The interviews consisted of two parts:(1) an analysis of what foresight means to the interviewees

Both national studies were aimed predominantly at determining how policy-makers link studies of the future to policy development.

N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 20 3. 1. How familiar and experienced are policy-makers with the use of the scenario analysis method?

In most cases, policy-makers at the local level are of the opinion that local organisations lack experience using scenario analysis methods.

Some policy-makers mentioned that, when using foresight methods for the first time, it can be difficult to find out how these methods relate to other methods with which they may be more familiar (such as SWOT-analyses,

It appears to be a huge step for policy-makers at the local level to link scenario insights to the agendasetttin and policy preparation phases.

What is added the value of using foresight methods in strategic policy processes according to policy-makers? To a large extent, the added value of using the foresight method as perceived by policy-makers at the local level is processrelaated Local policy-makers indicated that they saw the inter-sectoral approach as one of the main process-related benefits

of using foresight methods. By the look of things, this inter-sectoral approach is unlikely to be taken for granted within local governmental organisations.

policy-makers are forced to be transparent about the assumptions underlying their policies and clearly indicate the factors

In the past, some local policy-makers experienced a tendency among politicians to underpin policies by most likely scenarios.

while local policy-makers are oriented more process. In addition, we discovered a kind of connection paradox at the national level.

Finally, in all the local case studies, the policy-makers indicated that future exploration methods were used in a suboptimal fashion.

Which levers and barriers do policy-makers perceive in applying foresight methods to strategic policy processes? We tried to determine why foresight methods are used not to their full potential (as expressed, for example,

which levers and barriers were encountered by policy-makers involved in the in depth interviews. 3. 5. 1. Knowledge

and expertise, making it difficult for policy-makers to know which types of scenario analysis methods and scenario frameworks are suitable to the needs of the strategic policy process.

policy-makers who are inexperienced in the use of foresight methods may find it difficult to decide which type of scenarios to develop/use

According to the policy-makers at the local level another challenge is to know which information sources they should use to develop the scenarios themselves.

Some policy-makers found it difficult to assess the quality of the sources of information regarding future developments.

Especially when policy-makers are confronted with various sources of information that are contradictory in terms of the future developments they describe,

and facilitating the process of gaining support of policy-makers and politicians for the method and the results of the foresight process.

in addition to external assistance, policy-makers should also be able to implement and communicate the foresight method and insights themselves.

Policy-makers indicated that they want to remain in control during the development (and use) of the foresight study.

and policy-makers and politicians will not experience the added value of the scenario analysis. Generally speaking, civil servants at the national level find it easier to gain access to high quality information

To summarise, national level policy-makers seem to be equipped better to conduct foresight studies than their counterparts at the local level. 3. 5. 2. Timing of the foresight study Both at the local and national level,

policy-makers indicated they consider the timing of a future study to be a crucial success factor

One of the policy-makers said that‘‘(f) uture studies should match the biological rhythm of strategic policy processes in local and regional policy contexts''.

Most local policy-makers indicated that the foresight process took more time than they initially expected. This was due, in part, to the longer duration of the development phase,

particularly the time needed to generate support and commitment among policy-makers (and politicians). Consequently, there was less time to learn from the foresight study in a strategic 1 Particular issues arise in the case of quantitative forecasting models,

which are perceived often as black boxes by policy-makers. In these cases, contradictory information may indeed emerge as a consequence of different assumptions across models.

Policy-makers were disappointed as a result of this, because it conflicted with the widely held belief that futures research methods are instruments that speed up the development new strategic policies.

In the local cases, policy-makers concluded that one of the key challenges with respect to organisational embedding is to find appropriate operational models

The results of the analysis of local level foresight processes make it clear that policy-makers struggle with implementing future-oriented thinking and acting within the current organisational structures.

This makes it difficult for policy-makers from different government organisations to relate the results of studies of the future to decision-making and policy development,

Policy-makers feel that future-oriented policy-making can thrive in a culture where openness and innovation are encouraged

local policy-makers mentioned that managerial commitment from the start of a future exploration trajectory is a crucial success factor

According to policy-makers, the challenge is to present and communicate a foresight study in such a way that it is recognisable for politicians

Policy-makers also indicate that leadership depends on the degree of confidence among colleagues with regard to the future analyses (for example because of the proven quality of their work;

Da Costa et al. 25 also conclude that foresight results can only be taken on board by policy-makers

Regulatory foresight is conceived as strategic activity undertaken by governments and policy-makers responsible for regulatory regimes to shape

by challenging policy-makers to look at uncertaaintie and unexpected futures, in order to deveelo more resilient policies towards sustainability.

It helps policy-makers in addressing the diversity of future societal and environmental challenges and in addressing the potential of emerging areas of science and technology in an integrated way.

Most of these scans targeted a wide variety of users (policy-makers researcchers consultancies, enterprises, departments etc..

2006) instrumeen that deliberately challenge policy-makers to look at the uncertainties and the unexpected and deveelo resilient policies towards sustainability.

Alert policy-makers to forgotten and emerging (new) risks and opportunities, to provoke reflectiio and further investigation of the uncertainties,

which adapted the issue descriptions to the Danish situation after Horizon scanning can be seen as an adaptive foresight instrument that deliberately challenges policy-makers to look at uncertainties

and visioning, providing strategic forward-looking knowledge to policy-makers. However even methodollogie that have been developed to deal explicitly with a range of potential futures are reaching their limits in the face of the scope and pace of change in the creative content sector.

through a validattio workshop where stakeholders from the varioou creative content sub-sectors and policy-makers were invited to give their views on the scenarios devellope

but they are equally relevant for policy-makers at the point of defining policies in support of the creatiiv content sector development.

European policy-makers who were involved in the various workshops throughout the process, and at the end of the process to assess the results of the exercise.

Challenges for policy-making The challenge for policy-makers and regulators is to help create an enviroonmen

Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 32 Nurture direct links to senior policy-makers.

and members of the European community have used to guide their foresight design Quality of products Produce future-oriented materials for the system to use Development of reference materials for policy-makers and other innovation actors More informed science,

most foresight projects are designed explicitly to appeal to policy-makers'needs for more certainty, or reduced levels of risk, even about prospective situations or events that contain inherently unpredictable aspects Impacts in terms of strategy formulation for action Support decision making Improve policy implementation Strengthen strategy formulation:

Direct links to senior policy-makers: To have a better understanding of policy needs, to obtain much needed budgetary resources etc.,

and provide regular briefings to senior policy-makers. This also helps in getting recommendations implemented. Many reported that this was either a normal practice

structures and processses The key requirement seems to be creating the close linkages with policy-makers that in turn appear to be mainly dependent upon their sensitivity to futuur challenges,

which tended to question the need for or exclude new information Links to senior policy-makers: some, but inadequate to defend the program Linkages have been mixed,

with those domains where senior policy-advisors and policy-makers appreciate the need for longer term perspectives,

the availability of realistic models can assist policy-makers in developing options for coping with outbreaks but they cannot be used in real time

social sciences) and reinforces the role of policy-makers in the establishment of innovative experimentation and co-creation platforms.

A further interesting point, particularly for policy-makers, is subsidized that firms seem to be significantly more innovative especially in terms of new products than non-subsidized ones.

particularly for policy-makers, that subsidized firms seem to be significantly more innovative, especially in terms of new products,

'Finally, see OECD (2006a) for an analysis more from the point of view of the policy-maker; Polt et al.

the selection of a limited number of policy-relevant posters, based on the experience both of individual countries and international organisatioons the invitation to policy-makers and experts to provide an informed audience for the poster presentations;

A comparative analysis is provided as well as a brief evaluation of meeting the needs of policy-makers to identify areas to intervene in by formulating appropriate policy.

and equipment to firms Soft Science Research program Provide reliable scientific advice to national and local policy-makers Source:

>A key official and policy-maker of the MOST reported that more than 3, 000 people had registered at the website

which, since its adoption a decade ago, has yet to meet the expectatiion of European policy-makers.

and devise future-proof strategies Develop reference material for policy-makers and other actors to use, broadening the knowledge base around

and policy-makers representing all discipliine and from different parts of the world. Such bottom-up process was important

Jacobsson, S. and Bergek, A. 2006)‘ A framework for guiding policy-makers intervening in emerging innovation systems in‘catching-up'countries',European Journal of Development Research, 18: 687 707.

The dynamic internatiiona environment requires policy-makers to be prepared better for the‘unexpected 'and to be in a position to instigate timely responses.

can raise awareness among policy-makers and other stakehollder and help to validate foresight processes and the results that they generate.

in order to deliver advice quickly to policy-makers. Thus, emerging forms of FTA facility are tending towards more embedded,

The systemicity sets challenges not only to the researchers, developers and policy-makers, but also to the policy-making processes as such.

Within the focus of problem-solving oriented research a second source of tensions relates to different viewpoints between scientists and policy-makers.

Seiser (2010) identifies eight tensions in research priority setting from the point-of-view of policy-makers and scientists (see Table 1). A third set of tensions relates to the multi-disciplinary and multilevel complexity of societal challenges.

appropriaat processes for transnational programming are initiated Differences in priorities between policy-makers and researchers Different public financing and auditing mechanisms (vertical vs. horizontal grants, loans,

Different funding modes Vertical co-ordination Co-ordination between local, regional and (international levels National researchers not keen to see more budget used for transnational projects Lack of alignment between policy-makers

targeting policy-makers at differeen policy-levels. 36. A set of examples of internet-based tools allowing for integration of data of all sorts in future-oriented technollog analysis can be found in Haegeman et al.

A comparative analysis is provided as well as a brief evaluation the needs of policy-makers if they are to identify areas in which policy needs to be formulated.

methods and results that should be kept in mind by both practitioners and policy-makers. Keywords: emerging science and technology issues;

The alerting function helps policy-makers to anticipate emerging issues better and earlier, while the creative function enables the reassembly of issues or the creation of new emerging issues on the basis of the analysis and integratiio of scan data.

in order to integrate the diverse information needs of policy-makers about emerging issues. This paper is structured as follows: Section 2 introduces the main definitions,

Building on the advantages and disadvantages of each tool and method, Section 4 evaluates the different approaches and tools based on evaluation criteria reflectiin the information needs of policy-makers about new and future opportunities and threats.

and how this information is transformed into potential emerging issues that can be interesting and useful for decision-and policy-makers.

described impact, desirabilitty factual basis, plausibility, novelty to policy-makers, interests at stake, emotional aspects and critical aspects (if the issue appeals

In addition, experts and policy-makers were called upon to enrich, validate and discuss the scanning results. Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 211 In the SESTI project the following tools were used for the scanning:

Conferences may also be particularly interesting for making contact with future-oriented experts as well as policy-makers in the relevant domains.

Policy-makers interviewed at the start of the SESTI project noted that it is important that the analysis of emerging issues considers the possibilities to manage emerging issues

which provided space for discussing the findings on emerging issues with experts as well as with policy-makers

Policy-makers who were interviewed within the SESTI project noted the importance of methods that allow for identifying the connections, clustering of signals and the stakeholders behind them.

However, they are useful for discussing with future-oriented experts as well as with policy-makers the validity of hypotheses on specific emerging issues or their novelty

The participants were policy-makers and experts with a broad view of the domains being considered. Analytical presentations were made on the selected emerging issues in the different domains.

Although policy-makers were underrepreesente in these workshops, the results gave a clearer idea of the relative importance of the issues and the way in

policy-makers expressed doubts about whether they would be taken into further consideration because they were aligned not sufficiently with the policy agendas.

Linkages to issues that were already on the radar of policy-makers were considered helpful for improovin the relevance and usefulness of the scanning outcomes.

and methods in horizon scanning. 215 want to be successful by giving the right alerts to policy-makers at the right time in order not to over-occupy their busy agendas.

Apart from timing, there are also challenges in bringing forward a potential emerging issue or early signal to policy-makers.

Policy-makers may face barriers to taking the results of horizon scans on board as they may be contradicted by vested interests.

and interesst of policy-makers and the degree to which they are met by the different tools

Any useful evaluation of different methods based on the information needs of policy-makers should apply to methods

Horizon scanning alerts policy-makers to anticipaat better and earlier emerging issues that will need probably their attention.

E. Amanatidou et al. create new options taking into account the diverse informattio needs of policy-makers on emerging issues.

Several lessons can be drawn from this experience that should be kept in mind by scanning practitioners and policy-makers alike.

and are taken up by decisionaan policy-makers. This means that not only the evidence-based plausible storyline in the identified future narrative counts.

as well as to maintain close interaction between the clients of the analysis (e g. decision/policy-makers) and those undertaking the scanning task.

In general, model-based forward-looking results are taken into account far more seriously by policy-makers than horizon scanning data

policy-makers downgraded the importance of the specific issue by maintaiinin their faith in the reassuring messages from the economic planning agencies (van Rij 2010b).

Nevertheless, the results may still not be taken up by policy-makers for a number of reasons as mentioned above.

Involving policy-makers sufficiently early in the process so that they can provide regular information on the process

It is also important that policy-makers are engaged actively especially in interpreting the results and deriving policy recommendations.