Synopsis:
Policy: Policy making:
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In addition, business, policy making and the whole broad spectrum of decision making call for future-oriented technology analysis as well as risk assessment. Foresight methods and activities approve the uncertainty linked to the different futures
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and (c) trends for increased inclusivity across all areas of policy making. Inclusivity is a matter of creating trust across a wide range of communities in discussions of future developments, especially in science and technology.
In the 1950s outsiders to whatever policy making processes there were began to reject the notion of infinite plasticity toward the adoption of new technology.
Scepticism about the role of science in policy making has not been limited to the outsiders referred to above.
The public's realisation of the limitations of policy making is built unconsciously on the advance of a‘postmodern'philosophy 9 characterised by believing that:
which inclusiveness is being achieved and the consequences of that for the way policy making proceeds. 1216 D. Loveridge,
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Smart decision making linked to the ability to innovate calls for the anticipation and exploration of future directions through a societal debate within policy making,
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Most foresight practice in Europe has been focussed on public policy making and especially policy making in science and technology
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The impact assessment is based on a framework that focuses on three key functions of foresight in relation to policy making:
and facilitating policy making at short-,medium-and longteerm Obviously, only the short-term impact assessment can rely on empirical observations,
and its key characteristtics The concluding section will synthesise some of the most interesting insights that could be gained from the experience of the project. 2. Framework for the impact assessment of foresight processes1 2. 1. Changing insights into processes of innovation and policy making
Initially, the prevailing technocratic and linear process models of policy making (e g. in terms of formulation implementation evaluatiio phases) were replaced by cycle models,
However, in viewof the complexity and the ever-changing character of the object of policy which strongly applies in the case of innovation policy it is recognised now widely that there is neither a clear-cut recipe for nor an overarching theory of policy making (OECD 2005.
The concept of distributed policy making and intelligence (Kuhlmann 2001; Smith 2002) draws our attention to various policy practices relying extensively on the knowledge, experience and competence of the different stakeholders concerned.
From this network perspective, policy making is not just about government, but about the joint impact of public and private decision making on society's course of change and the interactions that precede formal decision making.
With such an open and distributed model of policy making in mind it is recognised now increasingly that an opening of political processes is necessary to ensure the robustness and the effectiveness of its outcomes.
but also decision makers from research, industry, policy making and society. Thus, a shared understanding of problems, goals and development options can be expected to emerge among those actors that have an important role to play in shaping the future.
From this perspective, foresight can be interpreted as an integral element of networked and distributed policy making by providing three crucial functions (Da Costa et al. 2008;
thus facilitating the implementation of policies. 2. 3. An assessment framework for foresight processes in support of policy making Against this background,
These conditions, together with the pronounced consensus-orientation in policy making, provide the governance context in which the foresight
and his engagement must be seen as decisive for realising a participatoor process in a context that had been characterised until then by strong departmentalisation of policy making.
To this is added the strong consensusorienntatio and the closeness to top-level policy making. By being linked very tightly to policy making,
several of the prevailing‘rules of the game'of policy making had to be respected, such as the need to avoid politically contentious proposals in the strategy document.
In the end, the strategy document becomes official policy. Second the comparatively short, and thus policy-relevant, time horizon implied that severra important longer-term issues,
but the closeness to policy making implied that some of the exploratory and‘out-of-the-box'thinking that would usually be part of a foresight process was regarded not desirable
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or may be impacted by a given approach to policy making, as for example within the areas of environmental regulation or energy conservation.
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thus, some results from even seemingly isolated foresight activities can be brought to bear on policy making even in the absence of formal coordination,
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and supporting evidence-based or evidence-informed policy making. The conference will seek to understand further how far the institutionalisation (i e. embeddedness) of FTA supports both the achievement of measurable impacts and the strengthening of interaction s between research, higher education and innovation.
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If the achievement of equity and governance is the ultimate aims for policy making, then high quality participation,
One of the reasons for this is that not all stakeholders have the resources to be involved in policy making processes.
and facilitate policy making taking into account the active involvement of society and the requirements of the new governance systems.
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The question then is how to provide policy making with the best available knowledge about the impacts of interventions (that achieve the intended goals
which they seek to PAGE 286 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 integrate knowledge of experts, stakeholders and also of laypeople in the process of policy making.
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Instead, policy making needs to assume that unexpected disruptive events will happen even with the best horizon scanning system in place.
Keywords Complexity, Disruptive events, Emergence, Reframing, Variation, Policy making, Complexity theory, Uncertainty management, Strategic planning Paper type Conceptual paper 1. Foresight techniques To date,
and most importantly lead to better decision-making and policy making (and perhaps contribute to use of theories of social change in foresight).
and later derive implications for the application of foresight in policy making. There are five relevant elements of complex systems:
employs reframing at the deep myth/metaphor level. 4. Results policy making implications We all have our favourite story of a failed
The key insight of complexity-based foresight for policy making is that command and control approaches do not work in complex systems.
Instead, policy making needs to embrace emergence to exploit the developing behaviour that results from interactions between the parts of a complex system;
and what it may mean for policy making. For example, emergence is a process of change and embracing it can mean choosing to respond, continuously, to that change, sympathetically and synergistically rather than a controlling, combative style:
What then could embracing emergence mean for policy making? Simplistically, it is about understanding the system, in terms of a system's interactions rather than its component parts,
Such policy making requires iterative monitoring of the emerging changes, to ensure that the desirable ones are supported and the undesirable ones diverted.
In terms of policy making‘‘‘‘embracing emergence''can be seen as very different to many FTA techniques. Horizon scanning for example focuses is on the possible results
Battram (2000) and Swanson and Bhadwal (2009), have considered how complexity-based foresight can be applied to policy making.
and intellectually satisfying to re-invent the whole policy making process in the light of complexity-based foresight,
the current (and historic) general policy making environment is likely to be the one in which implications for the application of complexity-based foresight in policy making will take place, at least for a while.
We will therefore use a simple, generic, policy-making model, Table II adapted from Bhimji (2009)- direction,
Promoting variation in practical policy making terms can mean using several options to achieve an intended outcome as implementing a variety of policies to address the same issue increases the likelihood of achieving desired outcomes.
reframing can Table II A simple policy making model Policy direction! Policy design! Policy delivery Objectives Objectives Objectives Discover new policy problems
Table III shows how promoting variation can be applied in practice at each stage of the simplified policy making process:
It also provides insight into how foresight techniques need to be developed to perform better in complex systems to enable better decision-making and policy making.
Table III Implementation of promoting variation in policy making Policy direction Policy design Policy delivery Discover new policy problems
Policy making In a complex system (which all societies are need) policy makers to recognise that systems are all about relationships and interactions between the constituent parts rather than about the details of the constituent parts.
Policy making needs to take place with the knowledge that that disruptive events will happen and will be unexpected, even with the best horizon scanning system in place.
Policy making needs foresight techniques to enable a vision of the system's emergent properties and also of phase change situations (without early warning signals) and of the resulting changed world.
Policy making must use techniques such as Reframing to visualise systems from very different perspectives including ones not possible now,
Policy making needs Foresight techniques to enable the generation of a range of future options and alternative potential strategies through both optimisation and exploration, including some that sound negative, ludicrous,
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European and national public agents have taken over policy making. A strong government, backed by a wide spectrum of the electorate, is formed to implement effective policies against the economic and environmental crisis. Regional
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Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 other hand, decision support and policy making require information on the potential consequences of the introduction of new technologies before they are implemented widely,
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A tailor-made combination of different methods is employed widely to obtain implications for policy making (Cuhls et al.
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and demonstrate the power of strategic dialogues as an instrument for a broad range of subject areas in the context of national research policy making.
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technology and innovation (S&t&i) priorities have become an integral part of government policy making in almost all developed countries,
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His current research interests are adaptive policy making and the use of optimization in policy-making. Jan Kwakkel received a Ph d. from Delft University of Technology.
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and in particular improving the‘‘embedding of Foresight into policy making processes''goals that have resonated strongly in all four FTA conferences.
Symptomatic of this danger, many voices across all of the FTA conferences call for clarification regarding the impact or utility of FTA in terms of policy making and more general outcomes for society.
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and that their processes relate to policy making processes 1. Academic research has explored also this issue, focusing on different characterisations and typologies of foresight projects 2 3. The literature has suggested that foresight must be an integral part of policy-making processes 4,
Foresight Governance National culture Policy making A b s T R A c T This paper addresses the influence of national traditions, styles or culture on the use of foresight in decision-making processes.
(b) Danish traditions and styles for governmental long range planning and policy making, and (c) Danish experiences with technology foresight.
Denmark was not among the first countries to adopt foresight and similar systematic processes in policy making in science, technology and innovation policies or other policy areas.
The combination of the widespread use of policy evaluations and the DBT's parliamentary technology assessment might have constituted a platform for policy making that would make the need for foresight less urgent.
In conclusion, historically, Denmark has had a weak tradition of applying foresight and similar systematic, forwardloookin processes in national-level policy making.
and using foresight in policy making. To qualify the concept of national governance culture, we have suggested drawing on the classical work of Geert Hofstede.
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Exploring Futures for Policy making), Amsterdam University Press, Amsterdam, 2010.8 M. Howlett, M. Ramesh, Studying Public policy.
the case of the RWS2020-project, Foresight 12 (5)( 2010) 41 57.32 T. Yoda, Perceptions of domain experts on impact of foresight on policy making:
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implementation and monitoring of the JRC work programme in support to the JRC's mission to provide scientific and technological support to the European community Policy making.
Science.PublicPolicyVol37\4. Critical success factors for government-led foresight.pdf
and experiences Highlighting the need for systemic approaches to both policy making and innovation Stimulation of others to conduct their own foresight exercise after being inspired Accumulation of relevant experience in how to think about the future
or if the results of the foresight assessment were integrrate into policy making in real time. If this Table 6:
The role of PTA in the policy making process, EUROPTA Final Report. Copenhagen: Danish Board of Technology.
Science.PublicPolicyVol39\5. Innovation policy roadmapping as a systemic instrument for forward-looking.pdf
thus be viewed as‘an integral element of networked and distributed policy making'.'This is realized through three functions of foresigght informing,
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