Market

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Synopsis: Market: Market:

and applications will lead to mass markets, niche markets or failure is scant. Based on this realisation, any approach to policy or business strategy based on the idea of early identification of winners must be subject to serious doubts.

From a modern perspective on innovation it is on the contrary essential to accept that decision-makers are confronted with uncertainty

First of all, it has moved away from a forecastingtyyp focus on science and technology to an incorporation of first market and then also increasingly social considerations.

and guided by Organisational and institutional structures, e g. with regard to the internal organisation of the addressee or relevant market and regulatory conditions;

Therefore, one of the challenges is to merge a methodological approach emphasising structural uncertainty with a real option analysis without the necessity of an optimal market.

this transformation represents a shift from optimization-oriented innovation policies for the mitigation of market failures towards coordination-oriented policies (3,

when they are introduced to the market. The European standards bodies have the task of drawing up the corresponding technical specifications meeting the essential requirements of the directives, compliance with

also in order to foster the development of new markets by Blind et al. 8. Besides the tradition in regulatory impact assessment,

whereas traditional technology foresight studies look for new promising fields in science and technology or new trends or needs in the market.

but also emerging technologies, sectors or markets in order to shape pro-actively innovation-promoting regulatory framework conditions, which are crucial for the competitiveness of national or regional innovation systems.

the time between the applications of patents and the market introduction of products based on these patents requires in general several years

but especially those with possible impacts on health, safety, the environment and on the functioning of markets require an adjustment of the regulatory framework.

In a European-wide company survey, companies were asked about the relevance of different types of regulations for the market introduction of new products and services and the various aspects of innovation activities 8. In addition,

and technology and changes in markets have not been conducted. In the area of standards as parts of the regulatory system

A systematic and strategic approach to develop standards for the service sector was initiated in Germany in the year 2000 with a large project Service Standards for Global Markets funded by the German Ministry for Education and Research 34.

CENELEC and ETSI published by the European commission 38 to develop a standardisation work programme to support the internal market for the service sectors. 3. 2. 3. The future needs for standards in nanotechnology based on a survey among stakeholders

In the first German Delphi survey, the field communication was characterised by the most negative values regarding the impact of the regulatory framework3 because of the former monopolistic structures in the telecommunication markets and the massive public intervention in the radio

and television markets. In Japan, the regulatory framework in communication technology is compared also crucial to most other technological areas 47.

but the liberalisation, especially of the communication markets in Germany, is reflected in the low need to readjust the regulatory framework in comparison to other fields,

or emerging markets. 3. 3. 3. A Delphi survey among telecommunication experts Whereas in most of the previous selected examples of Delphi studies regulation was a side aspect of secondary relevance,

and impacts Impossibility to detect major technological breakthroughs and their regulatory requirements Semiquantiitativ In case of conflicting interests, missing-consensus about priorities Identification of experts Uncertainty increases with complexity of the context (technology, markets

since often the regulatory option ranges between massive interventions in the market and doing nothing in a liberal laissez-faire policy style.

in which Germany did not leverage its excellent position in research and development into a leading position in setting the necessary framework conditions for future research and market introduction via standardisation 39.

Analysis of Regulations Shaping New Markets, European commission DG Enterprise (ed.),Luxembourg,(2004. 9 B. R. Martin, Foresight in science and technology, Technol.

Econ. 34 (16)( 2002) 1985 1998.26 R. Bekkers, G. Duysters, B. Verspagen, Intellectual property rights, strategic technology agreements and market structure the case of GSM

Labour Market Institutions, Product Market Regulation, and Innovation: Cross country Evidence, ECO/WKP (2002) 2, OECD (ed.),Paris. 29 U. Blum, A. Töpfer, G. Eickhoff,

EURAS Proceedings 2004, Wissenschaftsverlag Mainz in Aachen, Aachen, 2004, pp. 24 38.32 H. J. De vries, Standardization in service sectors exploration of market needs

conditions of non-linearity and high technology and market uncertainty are typical 2. This often leaves actors with the alternative of‘muddling through

assessment tools (market forecasts; knowledge of the technology and market drivers) are generally uncertain 9, 21,22.

Thus innovation chain 1 was said to have a key stumbling block no clear market is visible for return on investment and thus.

and so for cell-on-a-chip many niche markets will be the key. Large industry will be unwilling to invest in such niche markets (such is the case in pharmaceutical industry.

Perhaps when a generic platform is the target large companies may invest, but application focus for cell-on-a-chip will be niche market oriented.

an academic perspective, Technovation 17 (8)( 1997) 417 426.6 H. J. Duus, Strategic business market forecasting, Strateg.

lying somewhere between markets and hierarchies 19 21. Several analytical tools have also been developed in this area, e g. social network analysis 22, transaction cost analysis 23 and actor network theory 24, 25.

Whether networks are radically different from markets and hierarchies is still a moot point, however, since markets and hierarchies have had always networking elements associated with them.

There is a convergence of opinion, however, concerning the factors necessary for networks to be created and sustained.

and Institutions 16 (4)( 2003) 503 526.21 G. F. Thompson, Between Hierarchies and Markets: the logic and limits of Network Forms of Organisation, Oxford university Press, Oxford, 2003.22 S. Wasserman, K. Faust, Social networks Analysis:

and how such hierarchies in turn shape the market Thus, there is a rich basis of theoretical support for structuring technological component data in a hierarchical format.

high costs, high uncertainty, technological inexperience, business inexperience, lengthy time to market, and the general destruction of firm competence 17,29, 30.

recognizing the development of new technological linkages shortly after they actually occurred in the market.

, 1979.16 K. M. Clark, The interaction of design hierarchies and market concepts in technological evolution, Res.

Firstly, uncertainty in context conditions has been increasing substantially due to changing regulations, rapid urbanization and shrinking rural regions as well as market liberalization 3. Secondly

In corporate contexts, innovation oriented foresight focuses on long term product development strategies or market prospects. Here, foresight is geared towards‘exploration'of longer term strategies in innovation management 31.

in order to develop more proactive and systemic risk assessment that covers even new types of emerging risks (incl. risks related to new technologies and their introduction to the market).

and technology push driven innovation processes to the systemic innovations that emerge close to the market 4. Consequently,

when analysing new technologies and the impacts of their market introduction. In this way TA can also play a more significant role in pushing the development in a useful or wanted direction. 2. 2 Risk assessment methodologies in industrial safety As noted in the previous Section 2. 1,

and methods for companies in order to support the decision making related to introducing existing technologies into new markets, development of new technologies for existing markets,

or creation of new technologies in new markets. INNORISK project aims at applying Back-pocket roadmap 30 (also called Agile Roadmap), SWOT analysis 31,32 and IBM's Signpost methodology tools together with Potential Problem/Opportunity (Risk analysis

by defining the state-of-the-art of the markets, the existing technology or know-how, and the existing offering in the markets,

as well as the drivers and bottlenecks of the ongoing business in a defined time perspective 29.

are far from perfect and, outside of market beta theory, rarely used. Although some of the methods such as decision analysis, scenarios

day-to-day swings in the market averages) is essentially impossible in most circumstances and, therefore, predicting the outcome of contemplated policies is equally impossible.

Do we know the decision rules of the buyers and sellers with any more precision than the market as a whole?

Index (Economic Freedom Network) Economic Sentiment Indicator (EC) Internal Market Index (EC) Business Climate Indicator (EC) Environment Environmental sustainability Index (World

Index (A t. Kearny) Globalization Index (World Markets Research centre) Society Human Development Index (UN) Corruption Perceptions Index (Transparency International) Overall Health

As a result of the growing interest for nano-field, nanoartiifact are now reaching the consumer markets within a large number of branches.

At present, during its early stages, a wide variety of actors are anticipating both on the potential benefits and risks of the development of nanotechnologies and their embedment into markets and into society.

The key point here is that novelties do not traverse a static landscape made up of various selection environments (such as regulations, markets, policy etc.

and products on the market become identified and recalled pending certification. 1233 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting

(and flourish) to take the university research to the market, 1234 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 with the prospect of takeover by larger firms in 3 to 4

What previously enabled technology development constrains its embedment into markets: as medical nano enters the clinics user issues begin to emerge (previously unarticulated requirements come about.

and products on the market become identified and recalled pending certification. Whilst regulators scramble to catch up,

and (5) to facilitate the formation of markets (Johnson and Jacobsson 2001. It is acknowledged generally that the theoretical rationale for foresight exercises is supported by the perspective (or school) of evolutionary economics (Georghiou and Keenan 2006.

and (5) building new networks and linkages across fields, sectoor and markets, or around problems (Johnson and Jacobsson 2001).

and industrial development, ending up in new products introduced on to the market. As a consequence of this, there is often focus on the opinions of so-called‘elite'scientists and industrialists,

and less on the market or on inclusion of the general public. The fact that Delphi surveys often solely include point of views from scientists indicates that scientists in such surveey are expected to know about the future development of technology.

Porter's book from 1980 focused on the strategic management of a firms'external environment and on selecting a strategy to position a firm in the market (Porter 1990.

and the development of generic technologies, become determined by generic market structure of global research and technology.

In Technology and the market: demand, users and innovation, eds. R. Coombs, K. Green, V. Walsh,

etc. and structuura priorities concerned with issues such as research infrastructures, higher education teaching programmes, innovation promotion initiatives, venture capital markets,

uses and sources of energy Sustainable agro-systems management Spatial and urban development Identities, diversity and integration Identities, diversity and integration Labour market, educational requirements

and social protection Labour market, educational requirements and social protection New functional and intelligent New functional and intelligent materials and surfaces materials and surfaces New sensing

technological maturation (life cycle status), contextual influences and market potential 3. The innovation indicators help answer MOT questions.

2) NGO and green movements have impeded strongly the development of markets for any products including GM component within Europe.

when compared with the steady growth of the market for the products resulting from these explorations, for

Also the societal and market dynamics needs to be integrated better into the scheme. Consumer attitudeswhichplay a keyrole in bothcase studies becamerelevantonly indirectly inthe case ofgm plants as a driving factor for legislation.

Maintaining the flexibility to accommodate constantly changing market dynamics has become more important than ever in planning processes.

and an acceleration of the advances in science and technology all are turning traditional hierarchical or linear markets, supply chains,

The commercial environment is constantly evolving through the interactions of thousands of variables from market-driven pricing processes to government regulations, from consumer opinion to market competition,

SRIC-BI's system operates on a monthly schedule at the end of each Fig. 1. The complex market environment.

new products and services in a wide range of markets. Both Intel and Fujitsu Microelectronics are in fact working on such chips.

In an attention economy, products compete with every other product on the market. If a company wants to attain mind share in a large segment of the consumer market,

concentrating on flash instead of function when making technology decisions may be an appropriate strategy. The abstract is valuable

Software systems are even available to set up futures markets that allow employees to bet on the market success of various products a company has in development.

These almost always make reference to market opportunities or societal demand. The last distinct category is that of public engagement in foresight.

L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 247 success for business at least is defined very clearly in market terms,

While the rationale for innovation policy remains anchored in the Arrow concepts of market failure for many government economists,

A cluster was identified originally by means of analysis of market interactions between industries along value-chains.

The cluster approach has also been applied in analysing non-market interactions resulting in for example, knowledge clusters.

but also opportunities for regulation to foster the development of new markets 37. A series of methodological options, including scientometric indicators,

An extension of this concept is the lead market where there are sufficient buyers of the innovation willing to pay a premium

and more effective such that they can be rolled out to other markets. There has been a substantial increase in interest in demand-side policy,

evidenced for example by the European commission's Lead Market Initiative 39. To understand the relevance of these trends for foresight it is necessary to unpack the factors

which the market can provide to satisfy its needs. Known as the market survey or technical dialogue, this stage takes place priori to the procurement process.

The use of foresight approaches allows procurers to open up their thinking to technical or other solutions

A Lead Market Initiative for Europe COM (2007) 860,21. 12.2007.40 R. Wilkinson, L. Georghiou, J. Cave, Public Procurement for Research and Innovation Developing Procurement

in assessing market potentials, in various fields of applied social research. Many sorts of research tool can be sources of the insights required for FTA.

and market/product development communities. These all contribute to the knowledge base and methodological development of FTA 3 7. The result is a proliferation of tools.

than it is a free market of ideas of a level playing field. Matters have improved over recent years with more journals,

More recently, the pace of migration of new science and technology (S&t) has increased under the influence of the widespread use of new socioeconomic communication technologies and the globalisation of the world markets.

that the market will ultimately balance itself. Yet there is little if any empirical evidence that the market behaves this way.

Traditional regulatory models would impose mandatory rules on a company to ensure that it behaves in a socially responsible manner.

of SRI and the overall market. In this context, sovereign wealth funds have gained worldwide exposure by investing in several Wall street financial firms including Citigroup, Morgan stanley,

in addition, is driven increasingly by radical disruption of markets, societies and ecosystems. Firms will need to focus on themes like creativity, breakthrough innovation, entrepreneurial solutions to great challenges, like pandemics and climate change,

A Framework for Speculation on The next Thirty-three Years, Macmillan, 1967.8 Lindblom, Politics Markets: The World's Political-Economic system, Basic books, 1977.9 Y. K. Sheng,

while also doing good is that markets don't really work that way, Stanford Social Innovation Review (2005).

Trends Wild cards Globalization of markets: finance, goods & services, labor Crash of global financial markets Globalization‘‘with human face''Clash of civilizations Demography:

aging and shrinking of populations A new baby boom‘‘Breakdown of the sperm count''Clash of generations European union:

While this is normal in most market places where the processes of creative destruction and products and services innovation are familiar,

Strong classes between cultures, intensification of conflicts between cultural classes Population boom & high competition in job markets Decline of knowledge grounded in local society and history because of less direct human interaction

Effects of market penetration of electric vehicles on travel patterns (e g. on modal split. Consequences of global warming on economic growth Effects of speed limits on emissions and number of accidents Health problems caused by noise

basic research and research for market applications. Note that the levels are interrelated dynamic and. In addition, each level will have its own timescales:

How are the technological developments from the market viewpoint taken up by society? What are, from a market point of view, the different options and focus points?

What are the results of private companies that contribute to the realization of the technology?

Society Technological field (Research group Basic research Market Fig. 2. Questions that are raised in order to address the dynamics of expectations and processes of agenda building.

Reports by NGO's Reports by government agencies Spokesperson statements Reports that translate technological developments into market potentials Articles addressing the market potentials of technological developments Press releases of individual firms Articles that address the developments

and potentials of applications Articles in scientific journals Review articles that give an overview of the developments in the field Society Technological field (Research group Basic research Market Reports by NGO's Reports by government agencies Spokesperson statements

From the market side the expectations focus on the possibilities that nanotubes might have to improve or revolutionise existing products.

Arnall 13, page 14 states here (taking a market perspective: bthe most important material in nanotechnology today.

Cientifica14 24 from a market perspective points out that, when the opportunities for nanotubes in electronic devices are discussed:

bbig markets, apart from materials, in which nanotubes may make an impact, include flat panel displays (near-term commercialisation is promised here),

Important to mention from a market perspective (computer chip industry) is the following, as articulated by Collins and Avouris 23:

At the market side, other dynamics are present. Here, Nantero being the only company working on this technique tries to mature the given technique (proof of principle) into a usable method for producing nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.

This is a clear sign that the media see Nantero as a promising company to take nanotechnology to the market.

Therefore, basic research as well as efforts from the market side is focussed on realising the applications. The difference here is that basic research generally is conducted for all options

while the market side focuses (in general) on applications that are close to commercialisation. There are different topics that need

For the coming years Nantero not only aims at getting their product to the market, but also improving the existing technology to achieve even higher densities of suspended crossbars,

The market then focuses on the possibilities nanotube applications promise to improve or revolutionise existing products.

Nanotubes in electronic devices The market focuses on a selection of promising electronic applications based on nanotubes.

gives a push on the market to come up with new solutions to continue the ongoing miniaturisation in the computer chip industry.

In the coming years Nantero aims at getting their product to the market and to improve the existing technology.

Society Technological field (Research group Market Basic research Fig. 7. Main findings located within the three-level framework.

In the specific application we discussed in this paper this led (on the market side) to the realisation of a prototype of nonvolatile memories of Nantero.

This fact changed the market side in the sense that a robust player emerged within this industry.

This led to the recognition of a specific set of promising applications (the same process happens at the market side,

Nanotubes in electronic devices More research groups work on similar problems related to nanotube applications Society Technological field (Research group Basic research Market Fig. 8. Emerging irreversibilities located within the three-level framework.

integrated economy into the global markets. The Spanish economy is balanced more and diversified than 20 years ago when it was dominated by the construction and tourism sectors.

But most questions about the relevant consequences and options to influence it arise in the later phases of the innovation process, from the diffusion to the market, the use of technology and its disposal.

e g. by substituting other materials or by making available new functionalities and thus enabling new products and creating new markets.

which in competitive markets remains the only source of profits. 1 Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 737 Epistemic uncertainty Integrating the numerous extant typologies

Rejuvenation creates the need for new artefacts to sell into existing or new markets; for mergers and acquisitions to increase market power;

but above all else to ensure successful continuity of the business based on securing future profits and a strong share price.

the formulation is thought to be nearer to the advisory situations prevalent in companies contemplating market sensitive moves.

markets. 3. Sociology of expectations In the last decade, the so-called sociology of expectations has studied how in scientific and technological developments actors continuously and explicitly refer to what is possible in the future:

Studies of financial markets have noted that investors are motivated not only by their own estimates of revenues and risks,

The market is a distinct selection environment, next to institutional (regulations), cultural or political selection environments.

Informational inefficiencies in a market with short-term speculation. Journal of Finance 47, no. 4: 1461 84.

and companies competed for market share at the international level. The boundaries between the micro and macro environments were blurred in these industries;

and Eastern europe that entered the market by producing reliable, good-quality commodities at low cost. Since the 1990s, the demand for chemicals has been characterised by low growth

while, at the same time, the rapid development of ICT tools made the market far more transparent and increased the pressure to optimise commodity production.

and market issues, such as moves by suppliers and established competitors. The time frame is usually 10 15 years for Global Scenarios,

and integrating analyses of future changes in the macro environment into market and product issues. Foresight activities address major trends and forces in the political, economic, infrastructural, social,

At the market level, more focused scenarios are built and take into account the likely competitive moves of rivals

in the display and large-screen TV segment, in the last decade, there have been some major market launches of such new technologies as liquid crystal display, plasma display panel, surface-conduction electron-emitter display, organic

and made coherent with those about technologies and markets, to provide a comprehensive vision of the future evolution of the firm business environment, in a procees that guarantees that all view points (people,

As with Philips, foresight efforts at Siemens aim at identifying strong discontinuities and disruptions in markets and technologies so that they can be acted upon quickly.

and customer needs in terms of both markets and technologies. In the case of the consumer products and ICT businesses, the time horizon is 5 years.

Foresight and decision-making The main goal of strategic foresight at Philips is to drive the renewal of the organisation by figuring out how to exploit the new market opportunities enabled by emerging technologies or in response to changing customer needs.

and customer needs to encompass the exploitation of the new market opportunities inherent in such changes.

Initially, one of the company business groups is targeted as the‘buyer'for a specific market opportunity,

Daimler's managers could be quite confident as well of the main activities of the value chain for example, assembly of components and production and distribution of cars and the main markets industrialised and emerging countries.

Instead, environmental scanning efforts and, most of all, explorative actions (e g. new concepts of product and service, prototypes, commercialisation in target market niches, venture initiatives,

and Phd graduates. 3. Roadmaps consist of representations of interconnected nodes of major changes and events in some selected fields of the external environment, such as science, technology, and markets.

and long term) and roadmap layers (such as drivers, markets, and enabling technologies). In the systemic context, roadmapping refers to a continuous and transparent process, not a single exercise,

markets, solutions, and technologies in a certain time frame. The fifth way is to identify single targets in the roadmap structure.

Scope is a more traditional insight into roadmapping methodology that separates, for example, technology roadmaps and market roadmaps.

markets, and also more Figure 3. An ideal model of the knowledge spaces in an RTO.

and outside the organisation Capacities for aligning development activities with societal drivers Building a market vision Capacities for market creation or entering into existing markets as a novel player Identification of novel

market features and actors Articulation of demand Identifying societal and market drivers Strategy Strategic and holistic view of the research objects Strategic capacity of the organisation and/or entity Holistic roadmaps to be used in long-term strategic planning Technology space

and markets are created by socio-technical relationships. In the context of an RTO with an emphasis on technology development, this separation is, in our view,

It underlined, first, markets for the adoption of novel solutions, such as integrated ICT. Second, it perceived the market as a platform for new Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,

and knowledge spaces 831 Figure 4. The roadmapping process in the Building Services Roadmap (Paiho et al. 2007,

market-based visions were built on the basis of current technology trajectories and also by tracking disruptive alternatives Markets for adoption of novel solutions, e g. integrated ICT Endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in the renewal of building services markets,

e g. spread the vision of technological possibilities for rather conservative markets in building and construction Novel market features and actors were identified,

e g. integrated service provider Markets for new services and service providers in the field Built capacities for the construction of new integrated market players and clarified the role of VTT in relation to these new

players Articulated demand opportunities especially in the advanced building service solutions Identified societal and market drivers,

e g. customised housing and indoor services Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 832 T. Ahlqvist et al. services and service providers.

The project endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in the renewal of building services markets.

It also enhanced capacity building for newintegrated market players and clarified the role of VTT in relation to these new players.

for example, the identification of novel market features and actors, articulating demand opportunities in advanced building service solutions,

and attempted to define markets Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,

opportunities and challenges Markets for new services and service providers in the field Capacities and methods for creating new knowledge in the network Endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in service research both in Finland and Europe

the actual roadmapping process was able to endorse new ideas about markets, services, and solutions in the topic areas.

Technologies and markets. VTT Tiedotteita 2379. Edita, Helsinki In Finnish. Petrick, I. J, . and A e. Echols. 2004.

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