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relationship to decision making, the extent of participation; the purpose of the analysis (awareness raising, envisioning, consensus building, corporate technology planning, etc;
and does have an impact on decision-making, and that a main criterion of effectiveness is that it should lead to a reconsideration
The litmus test is the impact on decision-making, either in the shortteer or the long-term.
In order to have an impact on decision-making, it is necessary to create an explicit link between foresighting and decision-making.
Decision-making in relation to innovation and new technology be it from a company's or from a public policy perspective, is confronted with the need to navigate increasingly complex decision landscapes.
This complexity is due to the increasingly interactive and multi-actor character of innovation processes, a development that in conjunction with the new possibilities offered by information
and reflect an appropriate understanding of the changing characteristics of innovation and decision-making. Secondly, they should contribute to the mobilisation and coordination of the decision-making by different actors.
Thirdly, they must be able to deliver insights on possible strategies and options for individual actors on how to change course and direction,
and tends to underestimate the limitations to which decision-making is subject in the face of interactive and globalised innovation processes.
and to guide decision-making of individual actors if foresight is to have a real impact. In this paper
when it comes to informing actual decision-making, say, on what RTD projects to fund and which not to fund. 2. 1. Foresight recent developments,
Moreover, they tend to be regarded as a means to actually realise the expectations on which they build by influencing agenda-setting and decision-making.
6 their actual and traceable influence on decision-making seems to vary to a great extent. In some cases (e g. the UK Foresight Mark I) the influence seems to have been quite important
thus shows a number of shortcomings with respect to its impact on decision-making that can be summarised by the following three points:
The decision-making we have in mind here is of strategic character, i e. it deals with issues like what assets to acquire as opposed to the operational decisions on how to deploy
. 2. 1. One-stage decision-making, robust and flexible options While much single-stage decision-making, naturally, takes place under full realisation that subsequent decisions will follow,
and the choice to at least theoretically rely on one-stage decision-making, one is led to an approach that first tries carefully to map available decision options as well as possible future developments.
and closed process elements in order to bring foresight fully to bear on decision-making. 3. 2. Principles and process of Adaptive foresight Adaptive in Adaptive foresight can be understood usefully in at least three different ways:
and in the best case play an implicit coordinating function for their decision-making. In practice, processes of scenario developments and portfolio analysis will hardly be conducted on a continuous basis
it strengthens the rational basis of decision-making by capturing often implicit assumptions, expectations and underlying values about the future explicitly in different scenario images and corresponding pathways;
in order to broaden at an early stage the decision making process. The MPM-2 project involved a collective mapping of projected actor strategy paths (or actors'paths-into-the-future) and a reflection on the future socio-technical path or entanglements
The literature suggests that the emerging knowledge societies are also‘risk societies',characterised by decision-making conducted within an environment of increasingly uncertain or incomplete knowledge.
Social movements have been gaining increasing importance and gravity in action and decision-making. While active participation is demanded in a‘risk society,
strengthening their communication and collaboration via constructive discussions and joint decision-making. It enables the alignment of all stakeholders'endeavours such that they can influence underlying trends.
For an actual foresight process, aimed at assisting decision-making either at the level of universities regional, national or EU (ERIA) policies, a much more refined set of ideal types should be developed, based on a thorough understanding of the main features of existing and hypothetical future universities.
while decision-making competences are usually with the national or regional authorities. Thus, the issues of multilevel governance should be analysed,
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 28 29,september 2006 available at: http://forera. jrc. es/documents/papers/anchor/Higheredanchorpaper. pdf. 10 G. Dosi, C. Freeman, R. R. Nelson, G. Silverberg, L
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 28 29 september 2006, available at: http://forera. jrc. es/documents/papers/Futures%20of%20universities paper. pdf. 22 Richard R. Nelson, The market economy,
Future-oriented technology analysis Impacts and implications for policy and decision making The unfolding acceleration of global innovation is expected to become the hallmark of the first half of the 21st century.
and decision making to anticipate and shape future developments. The challenge of joining forces to develop more robust future-oriented support to decision making has been addressed in the series of International Seville FTA Conference organized by the Institute of Prospective Technological Studies, one of the Joint research Centers
of the European commission. Building on the success of the 2004 and 2006 events, the third edition of the Conference in October 2008
Impacts and implications for policy and decision making 1, enabled FTA EXPERTS, practitioners, and policy and decision makers to share their ideas
Impacts and implications for policy and decision making The 2008 FTA International Seville Conference. Online source:
impact on policy and decision making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 75 (4)( 2006) 457 582.
The role of this new method in a context of distributed decision-making and design is presented. 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
The role of this new method in a context of distributed decision-making and design is presented. A prospective analysis of new technology fundamentally hinges on the concept of novelty.
Deep uncertainty characterizes many domains of decision-making in science and technology. In particular, under deep uncertainty, there is little agreement or consensus about system structure.
Socio-technical regimes create advantages for system development as they tend to reduce the costs of knowledge generation and the political costs of decision making 13.
As a consequence, these decision making processes are often non-routine, badly structured and complex 15.
Following a widely shared definition, foresight aims at improving future-oriented decision making through the early detection and assessment of emerging trends and drivers of change 18.
but do embed not explicitly the planning in political decision making processes and are not explicit with regard to different stakeholder preferences 38,42, 44 51.
The proposed process thus follows the model of an analytic deliberative decision making process 54. As a result, these procedures will most likely not provide very specific recommendations which can be implemented directly.
and to guide decision making of individual actors if foresight is to have a real impact. We take this proposition as a strong invitation to explicitly specify the organizational and procedural interfaces between the exploratory phase in a strategic planning process
potential interest conflicts and sustainability deficits and utilizing the results in the formal decision making process (Fig. 1). 3. 1. Structuring exploration:
In the recruitment phase, the decision makers commission supported by the process facilitators a core team of approximately half a dozen representatives from the political decision making bodies
uncertainties, trade-offs and decision making The data generated in the workshops and core team sessions are synthesized finally by the core team into a recommendation for strategic planning.
As members from the decision making body have participated in the core team a proper transmission of the facts and arguments gathered throughout the RIF process should be guaranteed 7. 4. Case study Kiesental In the following section,
the political decision making process approved this plan that first foresees an intensified collaboration of joint human resource management leading to joint ownership of facilities
The affiliations of the core team members in the decision making bodies guaranteed the persistence of the argumentative structure in later stages of the planning process.
Change 65 (1)( 2000) 115 123.22 M. Mannermaa, Futures research and social decision making: alternative futures as a case study, Futures 18 (5)( 1986) 658 670.23 L. Börjeson, M. Höjer, K. Dreborg, T. Ekvall, G. Finnveden, Scenario types
Pract. 2 (3)( 1989) 307 331.36 S. S. Gezelius, K. Refsgaard, Barriers to rational decision-making in environmental planning, Land use Policy 24 (2
sense making and decision making as well as diffusion/acting on environment and interaction with other actors in real world. 1164 R. Koivisto et al./
and methods for companies in order to support the decision making related to introducing existing technologies into new markets, development of new technologies for existing markets,
The ultimate meaning of this phase is to arrange the knowledge in such a form that it is easy to use in decision making.
but it is expressed not normally in engineer-style descriptions as in Box 1 2. Instrumental vs. informative outcomes o Instrumental outcomes refer to the use of foresight to support the specific foreseen decision making situation,
In addition, business, policy making and the whole broad spectrum of decision making call for future-oriented technology analysis as well as risk assessment. Foresight methods and activities approve the uncertainty linked to the different futures
and to create knowledge to help decision making in defining management strategies concerning the changes the future may cause.
To arrange the knowledge in such a format that is easy to use in decision making. Results A report where identified
(c) Ways to account for uncertainty in decision making,(d) Strategies for planning and management of nonlinear systems operating in the chaotic regime,
Decision making; Uncertainty; Nonlinear systems; Futures methodology issues 1. Introduction There are many methods and approaches to the study of the future.
may be replaced by the image of many people interacting with many combinations of methods to shape the future by blurring the distinctions between research and decision making.
Imagine the potential of brain research in understanding decision making, the possible use of behavioral data from which values may be inferred,
4. Decision making in uncertainty Uncertainty, arising from new and unprecedented events, noise, chance, systemic changes and experimental and observational errors, can never be eliminated completely from the decision making process.
Thus, we and others argue that instead of using forecasting methods to produce single-value deterministic images of the future,
or decision trees have proven somewhat helpful in decision making in uncertainty, the field is still very primitive.
a better understanding of the mechanics of decision making would be useful. This assumption moves us into the realm of psychology. 7. The assumption of reductionism There is an implicit assumption in some methods of futures research that reducing a problem to its elements improves the forecasts produced by the method.
Political decision-making takes place in an environment characterized by ambiguity of problems and a multitude of conflicting interests between different stakeholders,
Implementing change and guiding desired actions through the decision-making chain requires sound analysis based on quantifiable data that is presented in an understandable format.
Decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty is a consequence. Scenario planning has been developed as a method to represent
A limited relevance for decision-making in policy processes is recognized by a review of practice in the broader area of foresight:
Framing a decision-making agendawas scored to be quite relevant butmore difficult to achieve, whereas getting stakeholder engagement and buy in was described as easier to achieve,
Scenario planning can easily clash with established routines of political decision-making which are informed by policy path-dependencies.
and support decision-making include the 5 The Future Analyst Network (FAN-Club) has been established as a permanent network of people dealing with future-related issues in different departments, agencies and the private sector. 1203
The compartmentalized structure of modern governments is a key barrier to more integrated policy thinking and decision-making
It is not remarkable to diagnose a limited impact on political decision-making when the governance conditions for scenario planning are developed not rightfully.
and targeted input into processes of decision-making is apparent. Scenario planning needs to conform to a variety of information demands,
in Decision making, Millennium Project publication, 2001, download at: www. millennium-project. org/millennium/applic-exsum. html (accessed 10/02/09). 30 P. C. Light, The Four Pillars Of high Performance:
and Wild Cards in Global Politics, Brookings Institution Press, WASHINGTON DC, 2007.38 T. Ling, Decision making in the public sector, in:
that require direct public participation Help meet societal expectations of increased transparency and involvement in decision making.
CSH also seeks to give a voice in the decision making process to those who suffer the consequences.
The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future, Routledge, NY, 2009.15 H. G. Daellenbach, Systems thinking & Decision making:
http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 Impacts and implications of futureorieente technology analysis for policy and decision making Ozcan Saritas, Cristiano Cagnin, Attila Havas & Ian Miles
Ozcan Saritas, Cristiano Cagnin, Attila Havas & Ian Miles (2009) Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision making, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 915-916, DOI:
8 november 2009,915 916 EDITORIAL Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision making*Most of the papers in this special issue were presented at the Third International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) that took place in October 2008.
Jenssen discusses the challenges of inclusivity in a participative foresight process in terms of achieving genuinely democratic decision making.
Smart decision making linked to the ability to innovate calls for the anticipation and exploration of future directions through a societal debate within policy making,
and business decision making a much stronger orientation and capability to address the future in a more systematic way.
Ozcan Saritas, Cristiano Cagnin, Attila Havas and Ian Miles Note 1. Reflecting the 2008 FTA Conference emphasis on impacts and implications of FTA for policy and decision making
2) The use and impact of fta for policy and decision making;(3) FTA in research and innovation;(
and decision-making are two key issues in the field of foresight studies. Although the use of foresight exercises as a tool has become widespread over the latest 10 15 years
strategy definition processes supporting the practical decision making on funding. In some form or another there are always strategy processes in national research councils and research programmes.
Decision-making in organisations is often a result of political negotiation between different interests or powers.
A primer on decision making. How decisions happen. Newyork: The Free Press. Martin, B. R. 1995.
Technological forecasting for decision making. Newyork: Mcgraw-hill. Miljø-og Energiministeriet. 1996a. National Strategi for Dansk Miljø-og Energiforskning.
and still has on policy and decision making, at least as far as short-term impacts are concerned. However, in this paper, we would like to take a more systematic look at the impacts the process already has had
and networked character of political decision making and implementtatio (Smits 2002; Smits and Kuhlmann 2004. Initially, the prevailing technocratic and linear process models of policy making (e g. in terms of formulation implementation evaluatiio phases) were replaced by cycle models,
but about the joint impact of public and private decision making on society's course of change and the interactions that precede formal decision making.
and decision-making by emphasising the complexity of organising and organisations. Thirdly, this discussion of stakeholder image construction in foresight is inspired by issues of reflexivity in social theory (Giddens 1991;
and aggression'associated with the strongest driving forces in future decision making. They were assumed to have no capitalist aspirations.
which they constructed an image of this group as authentic stakeholders regardless of their knowledge or possibilities to influence political decision making.
longteer planning and decision-making. 19 If the young were authentic stakeholders, what perspectives and insights were they to contribute to the project?
as steering and decision-shaping and of politics as decision-making (Johnston 2002). Foresight as well as governance is seen often as consisting of networking
3. About the relationship between foresight and decision making see Brown et al. 1999), Ringland (2002), Brown, Rappert, andwebster (2000), Böhle (2003), Genus (2006), Georghiou (2001), Johnston (2001), Berkhout and Hertin (2002.
and that the voices of the most vulnerable in society are heard in decision-making. It is also responsive to the present and future needs of society. 20.
Decision making in the public sector. In Scenarios in public policy, ed. G. Ringland, 124 31. Chichester: Johnwiley.
Credible information gets put to use in decision-making.!Information that is used gets requested bnext timeq.!
In addition to one-of-a-kind exercises, important elements of foresight activity are ingrained in policy processes at the highest level of decision making:
In consequence, the panel felt that it is pertinent develop competencies for the analysis of such developments in view of policy and decision making activities.
instrumental use of foresight refers to the development and deployment of results for specific and foreseen decision-making situations,
and possibilities for improving it (but not necessarily with close links to any particular decision-making situation).
the reports were possibly more amenable for instrumental uses in decision making. Yet there were methodological steps that retained dissensual perspectives as well.
By the time of the second conference, the‘‘impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making''had become the core theme
and implications of FTA for policy and decision making''but this time constructed its themes and anchor papers differently.
The need for more participative and inclusive decision-making is emphasised also by Cagnin et al. As with Ko nno la et al.
they see a shift from technocratic to wider democratic processes of decision-making as societies respond to globalisation
the paper concludes by advocating the need for embedding forward-looking participatory practices in overall processes of strategic policy and decision making.
impact on policy and decision-making the 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461.10 J. C. Harper, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, R
I. Miles, Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision making, Technology analysis & Strategic management 21 (2009) 915 916.13 T. Ko nno la, J. Smith, A. Eerola, Introduction
, Future-oriented technology analysis impacts and implications for policy and decision making, Technological forecasting and Social Change 76 (2009) 1135 1137.14 I. Nonaka, H. Takeuchi, The Knowledge-creating Company, Oxford university Press, Oxford
objectives and policy functions on the one hand and nature of decision making structure and their relation to the Foresight process on the other. 2. 2. Why more tailoring?
Available from the Science and Technology studies Unit, University of York, UK, 2001.21 E. Grande, The state and interest groups in a framework of multilevel decision-making:
Senior managers must understand their role (refraining from normal decision-making, judgmental behavior patterns), and junior staff must feel comfortable in expressing themselves.!
and to use the results in planning and decision making. Although the Scan process serves most effectively as an early warning-system system,
Some sophisticated techniques exist for decision making, for example the analytical hierarchy approach 11. A review of some of these methods concluded that most are used rarely in practical situations of R&d resource allocation 12.
and provide support to current decision-making. Whereas the paper reports some findings on the future of challenges especially related to sustainability, security and information society,
but also to the use of foresight to support the specific foreseen decision-making situation, for example relatedto resource allocationor the formationof strategicpartnershipsor joint actions.
In view of societal challenges, there is a need to provide outcomes to support targeted decision making situations.
and expectations of the participants but can also ensure the relevant outcomes useful for further application in decision-making.
and instrumental outcomes) Priorities foresight can be characterised as consensual and instrumental processes that create common understanding on priorities, networks and/or future actions as well as support the specific foreseen decision-making situation.
This relieves participants on the intensive search for consensus and direct support for decision-making which provides opportunities for creative thinking
Hence, it was planned not to have direct impacts to decision-making. However, the participants from different sectors of the society benefited from the project.
which support the specific foreseen decision-making situation or for the formation of strategic partnerships/joint actions.
and communicating this characteristic to stakeholders may create difficulties in attracting those stakeholders who wish to be closer to decision-making.
but mainly to draw conclusions on how foresight can be improved as an instrument contributing to knowledge creation for policy and decision-making in more general.
impacts and implications for policy and decision making, in: The 2008 FTA International Seville Conference, 2009, available at:
. Introduction Future oriented technology analysis (FTA) is an umbrella term for a broad set of activities that facilitate decision-making and coordinated action, especially in science, technology and innovation policy-making.
and their use to support decision-making. Posits are such‘knowledge surrogates, 'for Bell and Olick 2. We can have knowledge about the posts themselves.
which are the subject of FTA analysis. It is typical for decision-making about S&t-related issues to require intelligence that extends well beyond
Similar conflicting forces will affect many smaller-scale FTA ACTIVITIES, in private organisations as well as in the policy sphere. 4 DEMATEL=decision making trial and evaluation laboratory, a structural modelling technique;
Policymakers thus sought more transparency in decision-making, with foresight, technology assessment, and key technologies approaches coming to the fore, alongside other tools such as research evaluation and impact assessment.
The need for more participative and inclusive decision making is due to themove from the technocratic nature of decision making towards more democratic processes,
regulation and public policy 8. The shift from technocratic decision making towards more democratic processes can be captured in the concept of governance.
According to Sheng 9, governance is the process of decision making and the process by which decisions are implemented
The analysis focuses on the formal and informal actors involved in decision making and in implementing them as well as the formal,
and that the most vulnerable in society are heard in decision making, in ways that are responsive to the present and future needs of society.
and coherence all of which aim at a reorganisation of decision making structures with the objective of reasserting social legitimacy.
-Help meet societal expectations of increased transparency and involvement in decision making. In order to achieve a genuine,
CSR brings wider societal concerns and values, such as human rights, ethics and corruption, into business strategy and decision making.
and openness of decision making procedures to stakeholders while acknowledging the relevance of knowledge other than science,
rather than by a genuine desire to involve the public into decision making. Hence, it is important to reflect on how FTA METHODS
may be ready and willing to exert their own right in decision making processes and at the same time contribute to firms,
and public decision making. But what would then be the role of government and industry in developing human capacity and enabling the literacy of citizens at large?
and processes lead to more participation in overall decision making? 7. 1. FTA for public decision making Actors affected by innovation processes ought to be involved more in technological development,
so that their needs are taken into account. Therefore it is critical to reflect on how FTA METHODS
quality decision making processes and the ability to exert corporate controls. This also raises the need for board evaluation measures against corporate and societal objectives as well as on the effect of stakeholders'communication and participation on management, transparency, performance (economic, environmental and social),
FTA is also an agenda-setting process aimed at providing anticipatory intelligence as basis for decision making.
towards that of embedding forward-looking participatory practices in overall processes of strategic policy and decision making. Being able to respond to the questions posed in Section 7 of this paper is critical to making such a shift.
The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future, Routledge, New york, 2009.15 H. G. Daellenbach, Systems thinking & Decision making:
Wild cards may also be introduced into anticipatory decision-making activity in order to increase the ability of social groups to adapt to surprises arising in turbulent business or social environments.
-and decision-making to attend and learn about the latest advances in and applications of FTA.
and in all components of public and private decision-making. 4. Conclusions The interviews conducted as a component of the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference held in Seville on 16 17 october 2008 provide a clear insight into the current state of the FTA
There is a widespread recognition of the need to introduce into the processes of government and corporate decision-making a much stronger orientation,
impact on policy and decision making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008.
and methods can be used for assessing the impact of transport policy decision-making. They highlight the importance of assessing the potential effects of policy interventions to anticipate unintended effects
and to reduce risks and uncertainties in transport decision-making. In a second paper, Horton argues that policy-making needs to assume that unexpected disruptive events will happen even with the best horizon scanning system in place.
it has to be noted that using numerical values to support decision-making may be preferred a procedure but that the longer the reviewed time horizon gets,
to provide knowledge for decision-making. Potential effects of policy interventions should be assessed; risk and uncertainties should be reduced;
risks and uncertainties Uncertainty and risk are only in very rare cases a consideration in transportation planning and transportation policy decision making.
and risks in decision making is the object of academic study and scientific debate (see for example Renn 2008) for a long time.
Generally speaking, the scholarly literature shows consistently that all decision making takes place under conditions of uncertainty
and that certainty in decision making is idealized only an limiting case. However for this paper we basically want to link theory to practical application.
which is rooted often in the knowledge-base of decision making 1. 3. The methods:‘‘‘‘structurally open''versus‘‘structurally closed''The transport system is embedded in the broader social, economic and environmental systems.
and as a web of Table I Knowns and unknowns in decision-making Category Unknown unknowns Known unknowns Knowns Description Most features of the situation neither known nor well-defined (options, their possible consequences, reliability of information,
But these methods aim at improving the epistemic basis of decision making by focussing mainly on the categories of known unknown
also termed multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) or multi-objective decision-making. MCA is structured a decision-making tool developed
and used in complex and conflicting situations where multiple criteria are involved (Mendoza et al.,1999). ) It is considered often as an alternative
Scenarios help to reflect on the consequences of decision-making. They can serve as arenas, where certain policy interventions are tested''to get a better understanding of the related causal relations and of the anticipated effects.
A PAGE 290 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 broad range of tools and methods exists that are used for assessing the impact of transport policy decision-making by trying to anticipate such effects.
For transparent decision making procedures it is crucial to make preferences values and normative assumptions visible as far as possible.
Hansson, S. O. 1996),‘Decision making under great uncertainty'',Philosophy of Science, Vol. 26 No. 3, pp. 369-86.
Kleindorfer, P. R. 2008),‘Reflections on the decision making under uncertainties'',Faculty and Research Working Paper, INSEAD, Fontainebleau, available at:
-105. von Schomberg, R. 2005),‘The precautionary principle and its normative challenges'',in Fisher, E.,Jones, J. and von Schomberg, R. Eds), The Precautionary principle and Public policy Decision making, Edward
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