and most importantly lead to better decision-making and policy making (and perhaps contribute to use of theories of social change in foresight).
It also provides insight into how foresight techniques need to be developed to perform better in complex systems to enable better decision-making and policy making.
Using numerical values to support decision-making is preferred a procedure but it has to be noted that the longer the reviewed time horizon gets,
Using scenarios in decision-making is ideally a continuous process rather than a onetime exercise. External and internal evaluations The Government Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy was completed
This case shows some of the problems caused by connections to the decision making apparatus. Firstly,
future intelligence gathering and vision-building process aimed at present-day decision making and mobilising joint initiatives in the urban and territorial realm.
Likewise, several articles by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies have drawn attention to the potential of territorial foresight for decision making at the regional level (IPTS
or just perceived as a trivial set of tools that do not provide much added value to the urban decision making processes.
which most citizens participate in public decision-making. In this scenario, Spanish society gives priority to human and social requirements over purely consumption-oriented needs.
Progress is reflected by transparent decision-making, effective public participation, public-private co-operation and better coordination among different levels of administration.
the scope of legal research supporting policy decision-making tends to be rather restrictive, looking solely to the immediate past in order PAGE 336 jforesight j VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012, pp. 336-351, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited,
i e. to create a greater awareness of the possible implications of human-decision making''(Helbing, 2011).
Finally, Futurict will also build a‘‘Global Participatory Platform''in order to support the decision making of policy makers, business people and citizens,
and assist decision making and political participation processes. In effect, the use of modelling systems corresponds to one of the most recent trends in FTA.
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville. Bo rjeson, L.,Ho jer, M.,Dreborg, K.-H.,Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. 2006),‘Scenario types and techniques:
and methodical approaches of technology assessment for sustainability assessments of technology 2. The requirements on sustainability assessments and their consideration in decision-making represent until now unknown degree of methodical challenges even with regard to very ambitious concepts of technology assessment,
and new governance structures are evolving, reflecting growing interdependence and complexity and the need for decision-making under uncertainty.
whose results can be fed back into the scientific, technological and also societal decision-making and agenda-setting processes.
Although earlier conferences had focused in a rather self-reflexive manner on future perspectives for FTA (2004 and the impact of fta on decision-making (2006,2008),
3 Other examples are immersive decision theatres (offering a virtual environment facility to visualise output of predictive and scenario-based models with the aim to support decision-making (Edsall and Larson
and promoting active citizen participation in decision-making through inclusive dialogue. They see a key role for FTA APPROACHES and methods in this.
Decision-making in a virtual environment: Effectiveness of a semi-immersive Decision Theater in understanding and assessing human environment interactions. http://www. cartogis. org/docs/proceedings/2006/edsall larson. pdf (accessed 6 august 2012).
As decision-making tends to be inherently a political process, it is believed often that conflict can be reduced by decision processes that emphasise data and facts.
Weak signals as a flexible framing space for enhanced management and decision-making. Technology analysis & Strategic management 21, no. 3: 307 20.
Impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making, Theme 2 FTAEVALUATION, Impact and Learning, September 28 29, Seville, 12 pp.
The basic idea is that decision-making in firms and policy-settings will benefit from explorations of the future (Gordon,
practices and techniques The challenge of coping with increasing uncertainty encouraged new analytical approaches to decision-making and long-range planning:
we analysed the foresight activities of each firm in relation to uncertainty and drivers of change in its business environment and the use of strategic foresight in decision-making.
Foresight and decision-making Decision-makers at BASF seamlessly embedded foresight activities in the strategy formulation process. Scenarios are combined usually with the formulation and evaluation of strategic options,
Foresight and decision-making The main goal of strategic foresight at Philips is to drive the renewal of the organisation by figuring out how to exploit the new market opportunities enabled by emerging technologies or in response to changing customer needs.
The sustainable development of a business depends on the integration of sustainable thinking into mainstream decision-making and core operational processes:
Finally, Section 5 summarises the main conclusions and outlines implications for policy and subsequent decision-making. 2. Analysis of existing tools and their gaps Since the 1990s, a range of tools have been brought in to help companies design their path
and risk that accompanies any form of decision-making. Foresight demands thatwittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'be in mind constantly.
heavily dependent on the flow of ideas, data and information into a business and its network decision-making in its place in society.
comply with speed requirements-Individual learning to comply with functional roles-Information improve decisions-Team learning promoted to improve decision-making
and support decision-making effectively by using models, such as sympoiesis, that emphasise the creative aspect of living systems which,
and interactions to take place across business networks to support effective decision-making: this is paramount. Consequently, firms will be enabled to anticipate
The implications for policy and decision-making are manifold. Regardless of seeing the world based on three interdependent pillars businesses,
and promoting active citizen participation in decision-making, through inclusive dialogue, which can be achieved through FTA APPROACHES and methods (Cagnin et al. 2008).
so it can establish future capability of analysis and decision making processes. Sustain the business A It is developed a process by every day activities.
Impact on policy and decision making. Technological forecasting & Social Change 75, no. 4: 457 61. Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group (Alan L. Porter, Brad Ashton, Guenter Clar, Joseph F. Coates, Kerstin Cuhls, Scottw.
and society in addition to politics, combining their perspectives at an early stage to explore promising pathways for politic decision making.
and influence on policy decision making. Design/methodology/approach The three foresight studies used different methodologies depending on the project's goal.
Findings The paper concludes that implementation of these three interrelated studies allows identification of S&t&i priorities that have a strong connection with policy decision making.
Originality/value For the first time the paper presents an analysis of Russian foresight projects connected to the natural resources area and an evaluation of their influence on policy decision making.
and a description of specific innovation projects was required for policy decision-making. Therefore for this additional investigation the RF Ministry of Education and Science initiated the second cycle of the National S&t Foresight until 2030.
B Direct impact (medium) This means that the project results were used directly for decision-making at Ministry level (corresponding decisions could concern the forming of a research agenda, budget allocation, etc..
B Direct impact (high) This means that the project results were used directly for decision-making at government level for the development of national strategic documents.
and to supplement the results received from the previous project. 4. The influence of the foresight studies on policy decision-making As can be seen above,
promising innovation projects and other information required for policy decision-making. These tasks were solved in the FS2 framework.
The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends, whereas the technology roadmaps for perspective product groups created a background for particular measures aimed at development S&t.
because the results were used for decision-making at the level of the Ministry. At the same time the FS2 project showed that for full use of the priorities identified for the natural resources sector,
Table IV The influence of the foresight studies on policy decision-making Influence on policy-making Evaluation of influence on policy-making FS1 The foresight data were used as an information source for many political purposes:
because we could not assess to what extent the project materials were in the development of these documents Indirect FS2 The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends,
which however could not be used directly in decision-making. A clear need was highlighted for more detailed analysis of future demand for human, financial and other types of resources for S&t development.
The results of this project were strongly related to policy decision-making, and some strategic documents (Geologic Strategy, Water Strategy) were prepared on the basis of the output of the study.
So, the analysis showed the synergy of all three projects help to achieve results that had a strong influence on policy decision-making.
Therefore for better connection to policy decision-making one might conclude that a common widespread national Delphi survey for the identification S&t priorities (which was our FS1) should be complemented by the identification of key long-term demand for resources
Martino, J. P. 1983), Technological forecasting for Decision making, 2nd ed.,North Holland, Amsterdam. Nelson, R. 1997), Why Do Firms Differ
The challenge for FTA lies in the fact that the unstructured nature of grand challenges may not fit with the existing thematic structures of decision-making.
and accept recommendations possibly leading to fundamental changes e g. in terms of a radical redistribution of decision-making power?
and the increasing policy demand for robust evidence for decision-making indicate that there may be a momentum for pushing FTA towards integrating qualitative (QL) and quantitative (QT) approaches,
They analyse whether models can be used at all in decision-making under uncertainty. In this context they claim that Exploratory Modelling
and Analysis (EMA) is a methodology for analysing dynamic and complex systems and supporting long-term decision-making under uncertainty through computational experiments.
Cunningham and van der Lei 28 use such an approach for models providing support to decision-making on the selection of new technologies and discuss the issue of providing equilibrium between different groups of experts and stakeholders.
in order to reduce its distorting effects on the interpretation of evidence and its decision-making powers. There are two weaknesses in this claim.
Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer verlag, Berlin and Heidelberg, 2008.28 S w. Cunningham, T. E. van der Lei, Decision-making for new technology:
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 32 D. Rossetti di Valdalbero, The Power of Science economic research and European decision-making:
foresight and decision-making, in: Deliverable 3. 1 of EFONET Energy Foresight Network, 2009, Available at:
If TF is to aid in decision making robustness is vital. How might this TLC estimation method fit in with other FTA techniques?
Technol. 43 (1)( 2008) 157 162.4 J. P. Martino, Technological forecasting for Decision making, 3rd Edition Mcgraw-hill, New york, NY, 1993.5 A t. Roper, S w
or policies, that automatically adapt to changing conditions is called adaptive decision-making, respectively adaptive policy-making. In this paper, we propose an iterative computational model-based approach to support adaptive decision-making under deep uncertainty.
This approach combines an adaptive policy-making framework with a computational approach to generate and explore thousands of plausible scenarios using simulation models, data mining techniques,
and computational models are used commonly to support decision-making and policy-making 1 5. The term‘model'refers here to a representation of the most crucial aspects of a system of interest for extracting usable information 6. The term‘decision-making'is used here for the act or process of making strategies or conscious decisions
by an individual or group of actors, and‘policy-making'for the act or process of designing policies by those in charge of designing (public policy.
decision-making is more general than, and to some extent includes, policy-making. Although the approach proposed in this paper applies equally well to long-term decision-making as to policy-making,
we will, from here on, consistently refer to‘policy-making'and‘policies, 'for our work mainly focuses on policy-making
and more generally, decision-making under deep uncertainty. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 introduces an adaptive policy-making framework and our Adaptive Robust Design approach.
In a recent special issue of Technological forecasting and Social Change on adaptivity in decision-making, the guest editors conclude that Adaptive policy-making is a way of dealing with deep uncertainty that falls between too much precaution and acting too late.
The approach for developing adaptive policies as presented here shares characteristics with‘Robust Decision making (RDM)' 8
and to human and organizational decision-making 45. Here we focus on the competition between technologies. 3. 1. Introduction to the energy transition case
There is a growing awareness about the need for handling uncertainty explicitly in decision-making. The recent financial and economic woes have rekindled a wider interest in approaches for handling uncertainty.
there is also a certain degree of skepticism about the extent towhichmodels can be used for decision-making under uncertainty.
The presented case illustrates howmodels can be used to support decision-making, despite the presence of awide variety of quite distinct uncertainties and a multiplicity of plausible futures.
in order to assess the implications of these uncertainties for decision-making. The presented approach can easily be expanded ormodified For example, we used PRIMFOR the identification of both opportunities and vulnerabilities.
In his Phd research, he focuses on long term decision-making under deep uncertainty using the Exploratory Modeling and Analysis method.
whether models can be used at all in decision-making under uncertainty. In their agenda setting paper on FTA Porter et al. 1 note that there are many irreducible uncertainties inherent in the forces driving toward an unknown future beyond the short termand predictions need not be assumed to constitute necessary precursors to effective action.
the challenges associated with decision-making under deep uncertainty can largely be overcome. Instead of trying to predict,
In this way, decision-making can proceed despite the presence of deep uncertainty, for decisions can be designed to be robust across the explored range of possible futures.
This finding is troublesome to decision-making, for it implies that crises may be difficult to predict based on the monitoring of various exogenous developments.
for even roughly 6000 behaviors in case of 50,000 runs are still unwieldy for supporting decision-making.
In this section, a stylized version of this decision-making problem is explored. The purpose of EMA in this case is to help in the development of an adaptive plan for the long-term development of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol that is robust across the wide variety of uncertainties experienced by the airport. 3. 2. 1. Model
and decision-making by helping in anticipating and shaping future developments. The second case demonstrates how EMA can be used for guiding decision-making on plans that shape the long-term development of an airport.
That is, EMA can help organizations in preparing for and guiding their adjustment, adaptability and ability to shape responses to challenges and transformations.
Theoretically, the potential of EMA to FTA is its ability to cope with a multiplicity of deep and irreducible uncertainties in the analysis of decision-making problems
Uncertainty is recognized increasingly as being a major problem for the use of models in decision-making. The prime example being the role of uncertainty in relation to models used in the context of climate change debates.
Science, Decision making, and the Future of Nature, Island Press, WASHINGTON DC, 2000.3 G. Smith, Newton's philosophiae naturalis principia mathematica, in:
and decision-making and by facilitating dialogues between various stakeholders 4. The value of the scenario exercise depends on the ways in
However, the explicit and direct uses of scenarios in predefined decision-making contexts are just part of a broader social process 5. Also important indirect and diffuse links exist between developing
the development of scenario practice as a methodology for planning and decision-making probably started more than half a century ago in the field of war game analysis. The Rand Corporation in the US became a major center for scenario thinking and Herman Kahn,
i e. window of opportunity, we looked at scenarios as a tool to support planning and decision-making.
and timeframe revealing windows of opportunity thus linking decision-making with future scenarios. The legitimizing aspect of this is the creation of a common understanding of challenges
What is based good scenario decision-making? Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 70 (2003) 797 817.2 S. C. H. Greeuw, M. B. A. van Asselt, J. Grosskurth, C a m. H. Storms, N
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making-Seville 28 29,september 2006, 2006.4 H. S. Becker, Scenarios: a tool of growing importance to policy analysts in government and industry, Technol.
New Vistas for Qualitative Research Towards a Reflexive Methodology, Sage, London, 2000.29 P. De Smedt, Interactions between foresight and decision-making, in:
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 28 29,september 2006, 2006.30 H. Lawson, Reflexivity, The Postmodern Predicament, Open Court, La Salle, IL, 1985.31 J
Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decision-making Seville 16 17,october 2008, 2008.62 K. Borch, F. Mérida, Dialogue in foresight:
monitoring weak signals efficiently in corporate decision-making, Futures 38 (2006) 908 924.73 C. Prell, K. Hubacek, M. S. Reed, C. Quinn, N. Jin, J
sense-making and decision-making in late modernity, Futures 38 (2006) 350 366.77 P. De Smedt, Can Negotiating the Future Influence Policy and Social change?
& Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 As FTA is understood commonly as an umbrella term for a broad set of activities that facilitate decision-making and coordinated action,
although the role of these processes differs significantly with regard to decision making. The function of these participatory processes can be seen as part of acceptance politics 57 that attempts to increase acceptance of emerging technologies.
Future oriented activities that are linked not directly with decision making in policy such as public engagement activities organized by researchers in the US
Policy Res. 28 (2011) 197 217.24 M. Powell, D. L. Kleinman, Building citizen capacities for participation in nanotechnology decision-making:
impact on policy and decision-making the 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 75 (2008)( 2008) 457 461.4 In:
Both papers focus on enhancing the impact of fta on decision-making and in particular improving the‘‘embedding of Foresight into policy making processes''goals that have resonated strongly in all four FTA conferences.
All of which threatens to undermine the credibility and relevance of anticipatory thinking for decision-making. With this challenge in mind
P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 6 One of the most comprehensive and acknowledged studies of national styles in management, decision making
and improve the decision-making base for investments in technology development in Denmark. The project can be done in connection with public investments in technological service and in connection with larger interdisciplinary research groups, for example'.
, agenda-setting, policy preparation, decision-making, implementation, and evaluation. In most evaluative studies on foresight, the added value is addressed from a‘supply-driven'point of view, by
With respect to the policy cycle, we draw a distinction between the phases of agenda-setting, policy preparation, decision-making,
especially when it comes to connecting national foresight studies to decision-making. 3. 5 . Which levers and barriers do policy-makers perceive in applying foresight methods to strategic policy processes?
This makes it difficult for policy-makers from different government organisations to relate the results of studies of the future to decision-making and policy development,
Decision-making practices have to be deconstructed in order to‘prepare the field'.'According to Da Costa et al. it is very important to position foresight studies within the complex process of building
Universiteit Twente, 2010.22 J. W. Kooijmans, M. Rours, Decision making Under Uncertainty, Plandag 2011, Brussel, 2011.23 P. A. van der Duin, R. van
This principle ensures that foresight activities are connected to both local and international decision-making structures. Overall, due to the heterogeneity of global projects, all four principles must also be implemented in keeping with a scalable design approach. 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
for instance, regarding the decision-making power of stakeholders due to the bottom-up aspects of the process. It is important
This means that there is a need to combine open participation with closed decision making processes. Moreover, there is also the need to adapt the process and results to changes in the environment.
thus flexibly accommodate diverse stakeholder interests. 6 Open and collective stages are those based on processes of collective information gathering, sense making, decision making, dissemination or implementation of results.
Impact on policy and decision-making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR Fabiana Scapolo a,, Alan L. Porter b c, d, Michael Rader e a European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre, Brussels, Belgium b R&d for Search Technology, Inc
The overarching theme was the impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making, 2 placing emphasis on the delivery of valued policy outcomes and impacts from FTA ACTIVITIES. 1. FTA assumptions,
and provide knowledge on the impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making: It is becoming evident that FTA is a useful tool to facilitate,
and decision-making requires addressing the cloudy world of the relationship of knowledge to power. 4 http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta/conclusions. html. 460 F. Scapolo et al./
This could allow for a better integration of inclusive, long-term visions in decision-making and strategic thinking in the context of innovation.
improved acceptance and social embedding of technology, broadly supported decision-making on innovation'.'At a more tangible level, it has been argued that active involvement of users helps to create a good fit between the needs, expectations,
this knowledge is crucial in view of strategic planning and decision making within innovation research. Therefore, lowering this uncertainty is an important challenge,
This intelligence can than serve as relevant input for decision making and strategic planning within the innovation trajectory.
and could allow for a better integration of inclusive, long-term visions in decision-making and strategic thinking in the context of innovation.
organisational learning, critical analysis of strategic processes, alignment between strategy and its implementation in the value chain, participation in decision making,
we argue that embedding FTA in the system would enable firms to steer solutions to possible challenges through joint-up decision making and implementation processes.
and was critical to support the decision making process. 3. 1. An example from the Brazilian State of Parana 3. 1. 1. Rationale The Government of the State of Parana'was selected
community satisfaction and participation in decision making. The former increased from 46%into 72, %and the later from 30%to 60%in relation to implementation of public policies. 3. 1. 4. Negative results The main problem occurred in the translation of
and interpret alternative options to support decision making. Also, in combining robust measures with learning and knowledge while monitoring the system and enabling it to become operational.
51 to support decision making. All this is critical to reconcile creativity and rational analysis 45. Also, to link learning
embedding FTA within the proposed system would enable firms to steer solutions to possible challenges through joint-up decision making and implementation processes.
and its partners in the value chain considering alternative futures and building upon increased participation in decision making processes for applications such as:
Finally, embedding FTA within the system proposed shall enable firms to steer solutions to possible challenges through joint-up decision making and implementation processes.
strategic positioning of Rijkswaterstaat vis-a vis other organizations and decision making about exploitation of inventions Singular activity 1. 3 Business case analyses Used for sensibility analyses
cost and profit projections in predefined cases to establish a basis of decision-making Project 2. 7 Networking on demand Identifies matching knowledge carriers in the partner network on demand,
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 2006.24 J. Hausschildt, S. Salomo, Innovations Management, 4th ed.,Vahlen, Munich, 2007.25 R. Solow, Technical change
Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision-making Karel Haegeman, Jennifer C Harper and Ron Johnston Experiences of recent years place a premium, for governments and individuals,
which addressed the challenge of increasing the impact of future-oriented technology analysis on policy and decision-making. HE RECENT ONSET OF CRISES AND challenges ranging from climate change, finanncia and economic downturns,
identifying its different possible roles for policy and decision-making. It then formulaate a set of general recommendations with the intentiio of improving the policy impact of fta.
and decision-making FTA is a generic label that groups a number of forward-looking methodologies used to better T Karel Haegeman is at the Institute for Prospective Technologicca Studies, Knowledge for Growth Unit, Edificio
and decision-making requires a clear definition of what this impact can be. At first sight, the degree of action-orientation of any FTA is likely to determine the degree of its impact on policy and decision-making.
However, other characteristics of FTA can influence its impaact depending on the functions of FTA in a particular context.
and decision-making With a view to improving the impact of fta on policy-making and thus on the extent to
but fits well with the observation that there is an increasing need for more holistic approaches to informing strateegi decision-making (e g. environmental scanning,
Stimulate decision-makers and their staff to use horizon scanning in decision-making on different levels, to broaden their thinking,
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain. Cassingena Harper, J 2006.
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain. European commission, Directorate-General for Research Scientiifi and Technological foresight 2006.
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain Ministère de l'Écologie, de l'Energie, du Développement durable
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain. Schwarz, J O 2006.
not designed to directly influence political decision making, but to prepare knowledge that is relevant for decision making.
Given the range of defined goals and measures of success, one of the objectives of the research was to look at how the practitioners of foresight defined primary program success. After a comprehensive reviie of foresight evaluation
or reduced levels of risk, even about prospective situations or events that contain inherently unpredictable aspects Impacts in terms of strategy formulation for action Support decision making Improve policy implementation Strengthen strategy formulation:
and bridge building to move forward New decision-making structures, processes: i e. demonstrating new ways of governance
What is the relationship of foresight to governmeen policy and economic decision-making structures? What is the foresight funding model?
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