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and communication technologies in the present era, the ability to predict at an early stage which particular pathways
each scenario should present interesting strategic issues, and the whole set of scenarios should represent the full range of most salient such issues as well as possible (for tractability the number of framework scenarios is held normally at just three or four).
and the management of multiple interfaces present in European-wide innovation policy coordination. 2. Foresight within ERA NETS The ERA NET scheme3 seeks to strengthen the coordination
Older attempts at planning the future by developing heuristic models (in the sense of futurology) were based on the assumption that the future is predefined as a linear continuation of present trends 12,13.
In a survey among German service companies, Mörschel and Schwengels 35 present a ranking of future standardisation areas according to their priority,
a plan to connect the present to the future. In both cases managing for the most desirable path is the goal,
The grey crescent represents the present barrier which must be crossed in order to produce an integrated lab-on-a-chip device.
The research mainly involved a literature review of available documentation on past and present foresight programmes and their results. 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Actors'alignment 1. Introduction The present article presents results to date2 from research leading towards the production of a Phd thesis entitled Assessing the contribution of Foresight to a more participatory knowledge society.
For the purpose of the present article, the area of networking and actors'alignment is discussed.
and that dimension is interconnected obviously closely with the research activities of universities, both in terms of the present research projects (in
The modest aim is to sketch consistent and coherent descriptions of alternative hypothetical futures that reflect different perspectives on past, present,
however, concerns the present, rather than the future: several commonly used notions and widely held beliefs are out of Table 4 Driving forces
References 1 P. A. David, Europe's Universities and Innovation Past, Present and Future, SIEPR Discussion paper No. 06-10,2006. 2 EC, The role of universities in the Europe
and the edges are the component relationships that are present between the respective technologies. The challenge of the technology analyst is to usefully structure this information to anticipate change.
and therefore already present within the system. The author suggests that the original conception of architectural change,
The present paper argues that foresight informed strategic planning, allows addressing trade-offs related to context uncertainties,
and suggesting implementation strategies 7. In the present paper, we want to build on foresight methods for improving strategic decision making in infrastructures through the method of Regional infrastructure foresight RIF.
In the present paper, we aim at explicating the contribution of the foresight approach to the identification of trade-offs.
and outlook In this present paper we developed and applied an explorative oriented approach to strategic decision making in infrastructure planning.
Hence, somehow the link between these two research traditions is in essence present, but in practice the researches, research projects
the future is linked in that way to present situation. Risk assessment procedure in CES is designed on the basis of brainstorming sessions between power plant operators and managers as well as climate change experts.
for example related to resource allocation or the formation of strategic partnerships/joint actions. o Informative outcomes refer to the use of foresight to improve the understanding of present and future challenges of the innovation system and its parts.
which is constantly present. The second benefit may come from the participatory and networking approach of different expert analyses.
since conditions in the past were almost certainly different than the present. Do these arguments lead to the conclusion that modeling
and then using the model to bforecastq the interval to the present. If there was a match,
Together these analyses give an all-inclusive understanding of the present state and future perspectives of techno-scientific development of the nation.
Received 17 november 2008 Received in revised form 15 july 2009 Accepted 27 july 2009 The democratic deficit (the‘deficit'hereafter) in present institutional Foresight(‘Foresight'hereafter) lies in its participation regime.
'Similarly, because the present ideas are concerned with the practical achievement, with all its shortcomings, of Inclusive foresight, innovation research,
The meaning of a metaphor in the present context is a figure of speech in which a word or phrase literally denoting one kind of object
they are based on the dynamics of the present: there are endogenous futures embedded in the present which can give indications
and insights into the transition from present into future. 2. 3. Endogenous futures While new (emerging science and technology introduce novelties,
and thus potentially breaking up existing orders to some extent, subsequent developments create new patterns that may lead to stable situations.
Further developments are predicated on the pattern of the present situation. Not in a deterministic way: there are always choices and contingencies.
based on expectations and path dependencies that are crystallising out of the present (endogenous futures). They not only provide a platform for positioning the tensions,
This creates a gap in ethics of the present and near future..Monitoring signatory compliance becomes a major issue Tension:
descriptions of areas of strategy effort Analysis of areas (present state and actor views) Hearings Roadmaps (as follow-up) Duration of the process 15 months Approximately 18 months Legitimization
The present case of a Norwegian municipal vision project points to the often implicitly assumed shared understanding of who young people are
such as understanding past and present, and exploring the future in different scenarios (Godet 2001). In the literature on municipal planning, visioning is regarded as a separate method,
their ability to address present and future issues and to act responsibly in a changing environment. Less attention,
Giddens (1991,29) argues that our present knowledge about social institutions and relations between social actors relates to existing structures
when it came to their contributions their present social status was not what the project leaders were interested in.
They suspected that visions taking their starting point in the young people's present situationwould result in enumerations of their daily needs
and recommendations need to be based upon sound data of the past and present, as well projections of those trends that can be projected with reasonable confidence of accuracy,
no juvenile wishes and demands connected to the present, no ideas about physical projects, only ideas about social well-being and a clear dissociation from too fantastic notions.
on the assumption that images of a desired future can direct individuals'present behaviours, guide choices and influence decisions.
‘in a wide range of contexts, present day evidences, proofs, facts or truths are giving way to future-oriented abstractions premised on desire,
imagination and the will to the yet not present'.'19. According to The United nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP 2009) good governance has eight major characteristics.
It is also responsive to the present and future needs of society. 20. Local newspaper article, 5 april 2006.21.
Organising the present's futures towards an evaluation of foresight, knowledge flows and the coordination of innovation. http://www. iesam. csic. es/proyecto/formwp1. pdf (accessed September 2009).
Simpler definitions of innovation present it as‘‘the successful exploitation of new ideas''.''4 However, 4 See for example UK Innovation White paper 27.
and dedicated methods to improve the awareness and understanding of present and future challenges of the innovation system and its parts.
They are expected to improve the understanding of present 4 In 1997 the European commission published a"Green Paper"pointing at the development of a new Information society
but also differences from, the ways in which we create knowledge about the past and present.‘
Posits are based on knowledge of (or assumptions about) past and present, and analysis of posits
examination of what the relationships would be between the present and the key future or futures that have been posited (and possibly some other possibilities).
creation of plans to inform decisions in the present day and near future concerning actions to shape the future.
In the UK, there had been major scenario work on strategies for developing a competitive edge in nanotechnology and literature/expert surveying of social issues associated with this field, in the early years of the present century.
10.1016/j. futures. 2010.11.006 A short overview of the development of the present situation regarding governance sets the scene for the more detailed analysis of the relationship between governance
Globalisation and its offspring glocalisation have moved centre stage and now present three pillars corporate industrial activity,
in ways that are responsive to the present and future needs of society. Sheng 9 claims that there are eight major characteristics to good governance:
The concept means development that is able to meet the necessities of the present generation and does not compromise the rights,
The increase in population from the Palaeolithic period to the present provides an example. 2 The UK Department for Environment,
and signs usually associated with early developments in technologies, societal innovations, conflicts, origins of conflicts, etc. that while not easily verifiable from a present day perspective.
Four scenarios were constructed by looking back to the present from the future state of 2050 The main purpose in using the scenario approach was not to predict
is a scenario coming back from the future to the present. A classical predecessor of modern backcasting is Edward Bellamy (1951) with his Table
a desirable future end state is imagined and visualised, not as a continuation of present trends, but rather as a giant leap directly to the future.
in formulating the path from the future to present external factors need to be taken account (Robinson, 1990, pp. 830-831).
and actions leading to these futures to come back to the present from the future and go back to the future again.
possibility of degrowth economy (since wellbeing was considered to be at least on the present levels, this would mean that in the future wellbeing is defined in a different fashion from today) was presented in scenario B. In the final publication of the results of the scenario process this notion was replaced with stable growth.
Seen from the present situation in particular after the global financial crises, the anticipated possibility of degrowth economy is not an insignificant option
a dominant design 4, are present. In this seemingly chaotic process it is important to look for the first signs that appear
they will depend on the shared expectations that are present. Expectations shape the mindsets of the various actors,
At the market side, other dynamics are present. Here, Nantero being the only company working on this technique tries to mature the given technique (proof of principle) into a usable method for producing nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.
Originality/value The value of the present work lies in the synergy that can be generated between territorial foresight and urban planning
After determining all kinds of implications across the territorial system, the analyst should be able to perceive the gap between the proposed future vision and the present situation of the territory
Since the Brundtland Commission defined sustainable development as‘‘the ability to meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs''(World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987),
which gaps between the future scenario and the present situation can be perceived easily. The identification of gaps
the present research lays the foundations for the integration of foresight methods with urban planning processes in order to achieve a more sustainable development model.
looking at the past in order to address the present, while forgetting the future. In their efforts to establish a legal framework characterised by the fundamental values of order, stability and predictability, legislators,
It not only contributed to the construction of the various alternative scenarios that the project had planned to present,
and not to problematize or present alternative visions of the future. Furthermore they were not of a legal nature (of
speeding the present towards the future by providing knowledge about tomorrow through data about today.
connecting the future to the present. After a given period of time, a law of this kind would go through a‘‘future verification''assessment, in
the present) by this piece of legislation. 3. 4 Law enforcement Faced with increasing budgetary constraints,
but to allow for the future to come into being in the minds of the people of the present, that is, to allow for the future to be imagined,
moreover, impossible) or to apply in the present the most perfect laws for the future.
and present four case studies of road mapping projects from the Technical research Centre of Finland (VTT). How to forecast technologies that depend mainly on discontinuous advances?
Yet, the movement towards future occurs in a context that can often be taken to be static in relation to the time scale of present action.
allowing future to have an impact on the present: To take a transparent example: if I am walking in the woods,
my present behavior is not simply reactive, but rather it is anticipatory. 7) An anticipatory system,
‘Weak signals'of future can often be understood as narrative fragments that are used to compose meaningful stories that make sense of the present as an endpoint of past history.
Making sense of the present thus involves backcasting both the present and the narrative future.
In the case of GSM SMS, ontological expansion looks less radical, as the emerging new social practices can be understood as new forms of already existing practices.
In its present form, SMS emerged only after 1992 when Nokia introduced the first SMS-capable phone. 4. Leont'ev's activity theory was based on Vygotsky's theories on cultural historical development (Luria and Vygotsky 1992).
In the present context, with its emphasis on science and technology, is embedded foresight in diminuendo in its corresponding social and commercial expectations?
The outcome is then a version of the long-time notion of the future as a present appreciation of current knowledge projected to some future horizon.
selection of methods used in FTAINDICATING the nature of the knowledge (ignorance) each assumes to be present along the two axes.
In its context, FTA helps to develop hypotheses as to how present situations may evolve into the future,
generalists, people of thought and people of present and future action. Generalist's had a wide spread of interests;
People of present and/or future action were those people whose present or possible future position meant that they were then able to affect the amelioration of a situation
or were likely to become able to do so at some time in the future. Seeking subjective opinion about a situation and its future from these three types of expert had to be tailored carefully to each
'Nothing could have identified the‘unknown unknowns'that were present in the recent Japanese earthquake. In that sense, Derrida's argument is unassailable:
and present the following comprehensive overview (Table 2). Foresight is exercised also in firms, where it tends to be framed in costs and benefits (Reger 2001;
People act not only in reaction to the past (socialisattion or present (roles in a social structure),
or present evidence of research may provide insufficient reason for support, the claimed possibilities in the future justify the costs.
A specific initiative the‘Probes Program'has been established recently as a long-run (10-year time horizon) research project intended to present‘provocations'about new lifestyle patterns,
Moreover, it should link the activities that need to be performed at each stage to build an organisation's ability to know itself (how things are done in the present),
It is the process of seeking in the present to bridge the gap between the present and the future continuously,
legal Run the business Implementing the vision of sustainability Business Sustainability Maturity Model Business Path to Sustainability Comparing present performance (as it is) with the business
and reviewing past and present decisions and performance to decide whether or not to be in business (changes needed) according to competitive
The purpose of these visualizations was to identify past and present technological competencies and overlaps of competencies, within the IAS.
and (3) the present, in which all the actions and decisions are put into action. It is critical to understand that the unrealised options in the past,
as well as the potential ones in the future, also affect the present decisions. The idea of an anticipatory culture builds on this temporal tension (Figure 1). Therefore,
It is important to realise that not only the realised paths affect the present development and the future possibilities
but the unrealised options also‘haunt'the present in the organisation's Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
and knowledge spaces 823 Figure 1. Interplay of past, present, and future knowledge in an organisation. memory, at least to some extent.
Therefore, it is crucial to conceptualise an organisation not as a closed node in the present,
the present, realised path in the past, decisions made in the past, and unrealised past options. Organisations navigate, as argued above, in the strategic landscape that increasingly requires specific systemic capacities.
and potential future options manifested in the organisation's present. We realise that transformation capacities could also be identified on other grounds
its visual format enables the transparent formulation of visions with explicit linkages across the temporal spectrum (present, medium term,
not only to depict its present position, conditioned by historical paths, as transparently as possible (structural openness),
we have singled out four knowledge spaces that are important in the context of RTOS (see also Table 1). The model combines the four knowledge spaces with three basic temporal scales (past, present, and futures.
The present, as the sphere of all actions, is the most coherent one, and the past and the futures are more incoherent.
the actors have different interpretations of the present in relation to the past and the future but the present is the only temporal position where interpretations can be turned into actions.
The first knowledge space is the technology space, which basically covers the domain of techniica knowledge,
the exploration of the more radical futures is restricted usually by the overaal need to identify certain actions in the present.
but that have significance in the imaginary of the present options). Table 1 translates the above-mentioned knowledge spaces into‘roadmapping language'and terminology.
Third, research should pay more attention to the systemic and temporal relativity of the organisations, that is, to how the interplay of past, present,
We present results pertaining to the development of dye-sensitised solar cells. Keywords: Forecasting Innovation Pathways;
This paper aims to present such a process(‘‘strategic dialogue'')and illustrate it with recent examples from Germany.
their potential impact and the opportunities (including market opportunities) they present for Ireland and the research areas that will be required to address the challenges and meet the opportunities''(Project Terms of Reference).
as described in the technology vision of a Delphi topic, to the present or near future technological trajectory.
These present various methodological aspects of FTA APPROACHES as well as some advances needed in practice to assist FTA practitioners
These present some advances needed in practice to assist FTA practitioners and stakeholders in comprehending transformations
and the present in order to consider future options or predict the future. Besides scientific methods, various other techniques are used also.
Kwakkel and Pruit 12 present three applications of EMA, using different modelling approaches, in three different technical domains and related to three different grand challenges, grounded in a system perspective.
A wide variety of information about the past and the present can contribute to this
and thus tailoring foresight phases to different foresight functions. 15 Typically, quantitative models present higher credibility for shorter time horizons,
But the patent information in the early years is unavailable (patent data in DII covers 1963 to the present.
Therefore, NBS is still in its growth stage (1997 to the present. And according to the definition of TLC, in a technology's growth stage, there are pacing technologies with high competitive impact that have not yet been integrated into new products or processes.
Technology managers might informtheir NBS R&d investments by analysing patent application data from 1997 to the present to identify hot research topics or technological gaps.
1997 present. 406 L. Gao et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 2 H. X. G. Ming, W. F. Lu, C. F. Zhu, Technology challenges
The present paper intends to present the state-of-the-art on this debate and to address some important considerations necessary to answer the question above.
if we restrict our analysis to dtechnological innovationt (our present context). I want to advance the following arguments favoring an evolutionary approach to define innovation
To finalize the present discussion on point 4 I would like to add some other further aspects equally not yet considered as well:
In the present stage of our knowledge no one can be sure which method is suited best for purposes of simulating technological evolution and/or for developing useful tools for technological forecasting.
besides the improvements in the computational methods, is to incorporate in the simulations some of the general evolutionary principles that were outlined in the present paper,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 explicitly considers the opportunities that uncertainties can present.
In addition, uncertainty increases as policy targets move progressively further from the present and it is uncomfortable:
and programs that will connect the future to the present. Backcasting scenarios explore the preconditions that could lead to this desirable future,
When considered from the perspective of creating legitimacy for action we also suggest that the scenarios in this group could benefit fromcomplementary techniques connecting the long-term future images to the present via stepping stones.
Our analysis suggests that scenarios developed with broader stakeholder/expert participation will provide richer future images that go beyond the probable that is determined by the past and present 73,75.
Each of the case elements and aspects of different groups are present, therefore it is not possible to link groups with cases query.
we argue that future scenarios developed with a combination of well-designed modes of futures thinking will provide richer future images that go beyond the probable that is determined by the past and present.
and discussed the applicability of future scenarios as narratives to represent different perspectives on present and future developments.
IPTS and different past and present foresight network initiatives such as the European foresight Platform and Forlearn for organizing creative discussion platforms on foresight and scenario initiatives.
While the technology assessment crowd and the small but regularly present business oriented strategy practitioners voiced worries about the‘‘scientific''legitimacy and practical effectiveness of the at times open ended and exploratory nature of thinking about the future.
However, a review of recent works on the future of higher education shows that the approaches implemented present three major shortcomings:(
Although it is unknown in the present who the future users of a technology or product will be,
36,37 Skandia Navigator 71 75 The balanced scorecard does not take into account the interaction between the processes of strategy development and implementation 1, 69 Proposed system Marinho and Cagnin (present paper, forthcoming
past, present and future, in: Performance Measurement Conference, Cambridge, 2000.31 S. Tonchia, Linking performance measurement system to strategic and organizational choices, International Journal of Business Performance 2 (2000) 15
and performance. 2. A process model that guides the organization toward the envisioned future. 3. The ongoing innovation processes together constitute a transition path that leads the organization from the present to the future. 4. The inner component leadership
In one case the different concepts might be present but not explicitly formalized, and in another the concepts might indeed be present
Second, pressure from the top management level of RWS to present short-term results in addition to conceptual work about possible future developments created a kind of‘‘the urgent drives out the important''atmosphere as Henri Kissinger put it.
In business management the term environnmenta scanning is used to refer to the systematic observation of developments that present either threats or opportunities for the business.
The UK effort has focused on drafting the issue papers in such a way that they present a balanced synthesis of the sources scanned (and referenced),
economic quality (basis for other dimensions but also welfare creatiion luxury, leisure, distribution of wealth) social quality (social cohesion in the present and in the future, eliminating poverty, mental health of (futuure citizens;
in the present era of public funding accountability, remaining viable in the long term seems to be a critical indicator of success. In terms of critical success factors it was interestiin to note that all the studies showed that foresight delivery
As present (early 2010) there are some encouraging signs of a revival of interest by the Canadian government in a modest S&t foresight initiative so,
there have been other emerging infectious diseases (EID) which also present threats to humans and animals. More new diseases have emerged in the past 20 years than in the previous 50 years with the majority of these originating in wildlife.
In the present study we have applied the concept of converging technologiies particularly the pragmatic European definition,
'The technology roadmapping method has been used in the present authors'previous region-wide studies (APEC CTF, 2006.
The new challenge in the present study is the roadmapping of converging technologies within the diversity of the Asia-pacific region.
The present analysis yields some information on three policyrellate issues: the type of enterprises that received subsidies from the CTI;
Foresight seeks to provide a strategic perspective for the present, with knowledge of future possibilities, building commitment to and coordination on national or institutioona priorities.
From 2001 to the present, the CGEE has conducted nearly 400 strategic foresight exerciise and strategic evaluation studies, mobilizing more than 2000 experts per annum from an average of 300 institutions.
In this sense, shaping the future from the perception of present opportunities is, broadly speaking, known as foresight.
and Grupp 2001) This approach aims to link the present decisions and actions to a strategic perspective, coping with the possibilities of the future for the construction of commitmeent around national priorities for ST&I. 248.
on one hand, balanced the knowledge related to the present and a number of relevant future possibilities, and, on the other hand, compared the internal and external views about the agency,
which could impact its present and future. There were three relevant elements over which FINEP had partial or no control at all:
The present authors hope to expand this experiienc to other cultures, societies and realities. These three types differ in the following aspects:.
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