Time periods

Deadline (3)
Decade (125)
Epoch (75)
Hours (98)
Late (62)
Modernity (18)
Moment (29)
Night (3)
Season (38)
Timing (44)
Week (4)

Synopsis: Time & dates: Time & duration: Time periods:

In fact, during the recent sharp expansion of FTA, that mainly took place in last two decades,

a development that in conjunction with the new possibilities offered by information and communication technologies has given rise to an internationalisation of research and innovation.

which we could observe during the past decades. Several interconnected research traditions have transformed our understanding of innovation processes

K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 tendances lourdes can be identified like the development of electricity and propulsion technologies starting in the late 19th century and information

and communication technologies in the present era, the ability to predict at an early stage which particular pathways

As a second important trend, foresight has become an increasingly participatory activity. Initially, foresight activities were mainly based on S&texpert opinion,

After all, it is external developments that drive the need for adaptation. 24 The understanding of innovation systems analysis as used here is based on the conventional actor-oriented approach as pioneered by Freeman 44 and Lundvall 45 in the late 1980s and early 1990s

(and perhaps the beginnings of Phase 3). It should then be developed further in conjunction with the back-office work in Phase 3,

this stagewise backcasting of the scenario pathways allows also discussing the appropriate timing of policy and other measures,

2. Assessment of research issues Researchers December‘05 Mid-january‘06 3. Assessment of research issues Industrial leaders Three last weeks of January‘06 4. Initial

whereby the participants were invited to put forth their thoughts on them (approx. 1. 5 h). Second, within each 492 V. Brummer et al./

or even more than a decade, like in pharmaceuticals undergoing long-lasting clinical trials or even in some fields of electronics,

e g. the first MP3 patents were applied for in the late 1980s whereas the broad commercialisation started ten years later 23.

However, one outcome of the second study was the publication of a programming mandate addressed to CEN

In the following Sixth Japanese and Second German Delphi studies 45,46, all obstacle categories were changed into policy measures

and interviews done in conjunction with the work discussed here, we can add that unless start-ups and SMES are part of networks

Van den Belt and Rip 36 extended the Nelson Winter Dosi models for the late 19th synthetic dye industry,

Also, in the field of biomedical research, off the back of the Human Genome Project15, a major emphasis in cell biology over the last decade has been focused on in areas related to genomics, proteomics, medical diagnostics,

Rev. 43 (2)( Winter 2001) 139 160.19 D. Rigby, C. Gillies, Making the most of management tools and techniques:

Policy, 11 (3)( 1982) 147 162.35 R. R. Nelson, S g. Winter, In search of useful theory of innovation, Res.

Policy 6 (1)( 1977). 36 H. Van den Belt, A. Rip, The Nelson Winter Dosi model and synthetic dye chemistry, in:

However, indirect and/or unanticipated impacts that fall outside the scope of specific programme goals and objectives have also been reported.

The evaluation of the latest UK Foresight programme 5 sheds light on several direct and indirect impacts and highlighted several factors that affected the overall success of the UK foresight exercise.

Even though neither the second nor the first round were organised by government but by a consortium of agencies,

The Swedish foresight initiative also demonstrated that the timing of an initiative has a critical influence on its ability to affect policy.

An Evaluation of the Second Round of Swedish Technology foresight, Teknisk Framsyn, 2002 2004,2005. 7 J. Cassingena Harper, L. Georghiou, The targeted and unforeseen impacts of foresight on innovation policy:

Multilevel governance 1. Introduction The first universities emerged as responses to the need to harness the expanding intellectual forces of the era to the increasingly demanding knowledge requirements of the surrounding society

The Spring European council meetings, assessing the progress towards the Lisbon strategy, using several indicators on HE performance,

and its standing vis-à-vis the Triad regions are considered as major‘variables'of the alternative futures for the EU. At the second,

etc. 8 Several ERA visions have been devised by putting governance issues into the centre, see e g. 18 20 the ones developed in this paper follow a different logic. 9 The term‘universities'is used as shorthand for all sorts of higher education organisations. 10 The first attempt to do so can be found in a previous

The last few decades, however, saw a major change: with 30 48%of the relevant age cohort attending tertiary education in most OECD countries, we cannot speak of the same‘higher'education (HE) system.

instead of returning to the EU. This proportion has risen notably over the past decade: from 44.5%at the beginning of the 1990s to 57.5%at the turn of the millennium (43, p. 57.

That might lead to a much larger share of research classified by governments as military R&d. 23 A few decades ago no one would have thought of e g.

The second refers to lists of priorities and proposed actions (for different stakeholders, in this case e g. university rectors and deans, regional, national and EU policy-makers, businesses and local communities as partners of universities), inputs

http://www. bruegel. org. 7 STRATA-ETAN EXPERT group, Higher education and Research for the ERA:

Status and Impact of future-Oriented Technology analysis, Anchor Paper for the Second International Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 28 29,september 2006 available at:

Policy 30 (6)( 2001) 953 976.21 A. Havas, Futures for Universities, paper presented at the Second International Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:

-ECE Spring Seminar 2004: Competitiveness and economic growth in the ECE region, Geneva, 23,february 2004 47 K. Aiginger, A. Guger, The European Socio-economicmodel:

In this section, the paper explicates the social and technological organizational structures which may permit a new era of open innovation.

The second is the clustering coefficient, which is a measure of excess links between closely related nodes.

and the politically set criteria of effective, homogenous and affordable infrastructure services 2. It is fair to say that this socio-technical constellation has been highly successful over the past decades.

Over the past decades, strategic planning in these sectors was focused mostly on narrowing down context uncertainties, value considerations and system configurations to reduce complexity and ease implementation 1, 4. Given the increased range of uncertainties,

They are particularly strong in OECD countries where infrastructure networks have been established since decades. In the social science literature, the couplings have been described as socio-technical regimes.

Given the long life times of most infrastructures, strategic investment decisions will only take place every couple of decades.

a more elaborate and open approach to strategic planning seems very timely. 2. 2. Foresight supporting infrastructure planning Foresight methods have been developed over the past decades to explicitly address substantial uncertainties in technology development.

Land use transportation scenario planning projects have been carried out since the late 1980s in the US 37. In particular metropolitan transportation has moved from a supply-side focus siting facilities to meet projected demands toward a more 1152 E. Störmer et al./

board minutes and stakeholder interviews, they identify the strength and weaknesses of the prevailing technical and organizational setup to address claims from customers, public, regulatory bodies and the affected environment 62.

we introduce a second visual representation of the data (see Fig. 3). As a first dimension,

a coincidence of social and sustainability assessments is given if points are located in the diagonal area pointing to the upper right corner.

The assets built up during these decades amount to approximately 100 Billion euros 68. Today however, there is a high need for repair and renewal.

These cases were run between late 2006 and early 2008. In the next section, we present the process

and thus lack employees to guarantee 24 hour availability. Therefore, the idea of an organizational integration of the associations had been raised.

Environmental impact ranked only second in their priorities. In contrast, the industry's stakeholders favor besides low tariffs, additionally low levels of bureaucracy as well as voice and participation in the associations decision board. 4. 4. Exploring the trade-off landscape The virtual future stakeholder groups

a transitory organization would be necessary to implement a stepwise decision process taking place over one or two decades.

options and timing aspects of a conjointly favorable course of action could be elaborated. At the same time, open issues associated with the merger option could be identified

the general risk assessment procedure, guidelines for gathering the background information, the seasonal plan, risk identification model

The seasonal plan, for instance, aims at stimulating the risk identification process by listing the normal seasonal routines of the hydropower plant,

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 autumn. Potential climate change effects are added then to the seasonal plan

and changes to the normal seasonal routines can be noticed; the future is linked in that way to present situation.

Risk assessment procedure in CES is designed on the basis of brainstorming sessions between power plant operators and managers as well as climate change experts.

Innovation policy Science and Technology indicators Barometer Future-oriented knowledge 1. Introduction A growing number of different international comparison systems of the economic and innovation performance of nations have emerged within a decade 2

. The role of performance comparisons has become increasingly important in the era of globalization when competition is not only between multinational and other enterprises but also between economies and innovation systems.

so that the comparison of indicators of latest exercise to those of previous barometers remains possible. 2. Theoretical framework

and second, to a technology barometer based on a survey study of the visions and attitudes of relevant national key actor and interest groups.

In conjunction with the reform of the Finnish information society strategy, the knowledge society is defined as one where knowledge

According to this index figure Finland rates as second after Sweden in Technology barometer 2007. In the same way other combined composite indicators determine Finland's proportional rating compared to the reference group countries in different areas of technology barometer (the content of Technology barometer 2007 is presented in Appendix B

Despite the vast amount of interest in the Nordic innovation policy during the last decade, even this approach may have its pitfalls.

The precise timing of barometer procedure depends moreover on different factors affecting the national economy and innovation system.

meaning that the comparison of latest exercise with previous ones remains possible, allowing the identification of changes occurred in the course of time both in indicator study as well as in survey study.

latest developments in various technological-scientific subject areas were analysed, consolidated and processed in order to attain a reliable description of the international state-of-the-art.

Over the recent decades, it has formed a growing area of interest on the interface of academia and public and private sector policy-making.

not only unfold over several decades, but also cut across spatial scales which are influenced by a myriad of driving forces.

Paper prepared at the invitation of the Woodrow wilson International Center for Scholars Foresight and Governance Project, 2002.34 L. Fuerth, Strategic Myopia, the Case for Forward Engagement, The National Interest, Spring

and in greater depth in Loveridge and Street 3. Throughout recent decades it has been presumed that people possess an infinite‘plasticity,

Formal rejection of the notion of infinite plasticity came in the late 1960s and early 1970s with the growth of technology assessment (TA) and the creation of the Office of Technology assessment (OTA) in the USA,

feed-forward and other aspects of systems behaviour Likely to exhibit complexity Likely to exhibit aspects of trans science Influenced by the dynamic balance between the forces of modernity

and post-modernity Independent to enable: freedom of thought; freedom of access to people and information sources; and freedom of reporting Participatory enabling whoever wishes to take part to do

The evidence for this lies in the age, occupation, gender and background of the majority of Foresight participants who have been middle-to late-middle aged, professional managers and scientists, male and university graduates.

The contrast between the extremes of narrow expert and widespread consultation illustrates the simplicity of the first by comparison with the second and how this stems from its exclusivity in clear distinction to the inclusive nature of widespread consultation.

the Futur process, Second International Conference on Technology foresight Tokyo, 27 28,february 2003. 3 D. Loveridge, P. Street, Inclusive foresight, Foresight:

. Loveridge, Computers and you, Futures 15 (6)( 1983) 498 503.8 E. Powell, Politicians and the future, Futures (1979) 338 341 August 9 A. Giddens, The Consequences of Modernity

& Winters natural trajectories) critique both analyses for missing the interplay between both. They suggest the quasi-evolutionary approach citing that Constructive TA could act as a middle point.

The next step is to introduce evolution overtime, so as to address the other main gap in the literature:

The following Spring, as a response to the prior press coverage and the ZDF news item, many patients with lung cancer go to the lab. As ever more patients converge on his lab,

Tensions in this scenario include the issues of timeliness of engagement when to incorporate actors? Early stage technologies are fragile

Manag. 9 (2)( 1997) 131 148.15 H. van den Belt, A. Rip, The Nelson Winter Dosi model and synthetic dye chemistry, in:

Policy 11 (3)( 1982) 147 162.20 R. R. Nelson, S g. Winter, In search of useful theory of innovation, Res.

Phd Manuscript,(forthcoming Spring 2010. 34 R. van Merkerk, R. E. H. M. Smits, Tailoring CTA for emerging technologies, Technol.

Akademische Verlagsanstalt, 2009.37 Mayer Brown, Minutes of Debate on Governance Initiatives for the European Nanotechnology Community in the Public and Private Sectors European commission, Brussels, December 5th 2007.38 Investing

Although the use of foresight exercises as a tool has become widespread over the latest 10 15 years

but the idea of the rational decision has been challenged for decades by decision theorists (Lindblom 1959;

As already mentioned, the idea of the rational decision has been challenged for decades by decision theorists.

Followiin the change of government in Denmark in late 2001 the energy research programmes were cut by two-thirds in 2002,

The latest strategy plan for the Technical research Council was Strategy plan 2003 2007, publisshe in August 2002 (Statens Teknisk-Videnskabelige Forskningsråd 2002.

In the second phase, during the second half of 2001 the council members described and discussed the different areas of research in science and technology, building on, among other things, the vision papers.

and politician-targeted format was taken late in the process, early in 2002. The Research Agency played, in collaboration with the council, an important role in the definition of this communication format.

for example, the general national research strategy developed in the mid-1990s (Miljø-og Energiministeriet 1996a c). Danish energy research experienced considerable turbulence following the change in governnmen in late 2001.

In the second half of 2003 and in 2004, two other areas were defined as priorities for strategy development.

The rise and fall of strategic planning. Newyork: Free Press. Mintzberg, H. 1994b. Rethinking strategic planning. Part I:

However, it is also rather unique in that it has enacted sizeable increases in spending on research and development (R&d) over the last decade

But in small countries, this is particularly difficult to achieve across the board as many S&t areas lack sufficient‘critical mass'to keep pace with all the latest developments.

This is often the moment when the importance of structural priorities is discovered, 'since future investments in research infrastructures or future changes in policies/regulations, for example, can make a significant difference to a country's ability to exploit a particular S&t thematic area.

business and research were invited to the Stakeholderworkshop with the aim of identifying the main challenges facing Luxembourg over the coming decade.

and second, to use a foresight exercise to identify and develop those domain areas that might be of interest,

An advantage of this late stepwas that the results were owned nowpartly by the MCHER, which had not been the case previously.

A first call for project proposals was launched in early 2008, some two years after the initial deadline,

Paper presented at the Second FTA Conference, 28 29 september, Sevilla, Spain. Keenan, M. 2003. Identifying emerging generic technologies at the national level:

the late 1970s saw the emergence of a new paradigm in research, technology and then also innovation policies,

In fact, it was a lucky coincidence that the foresight process‘Wien denkt Zukunft'could draw on a comprehensive analytical basis provided by the research programme‘Systems Research in the Urban area

In the context of future orientation, reflexivity has evolved from an understanndin of human practice as described by Garfinkel (1967) via a social theory of modernity introduced by among others Giddens (1991) and Beck, Bonss,

Giddens (1991,29) argues that the‘popularity of futurology in the system of high modernity is not an eccentric preoccupation...

The empirical study is based on 34 hours of in depth interviews and fieldwork observations in those various settings.

and to collect‘relevant ethnographic moments'(Van't Klooster and Van Asselt 2006) during the 7-month project period.

For the discussion at hand ethnographic moments were chosen which were‘indicative of dissonance'(Herzfeld 1997) and highlighted‘contesting values or problematic social changes of some kind'(O'connor 2004).

This article is based on the collection of specific moments in which the idea of assumed shared values collided with the ideal of community engagement. 9 The following discussion of how an image of schoolchildren as stakeholders

The contours of high modernity. In Modernity and self-identity: self and society in the late modern age, 10 35.

Stanford, CA: Stanford university Press. Godet, M. 2001. Creating futures: scenario planning as a strategic management tool. London:

they can be done in minutes. One can thereby take advantage of wide availability of rich science

The time to conduct certain technology analyses can be reduced from months to minutes by taking advantage of four factors enabling QTIP Quick Technology intelligence Processes:

These databases can be searched from one's computer, enabling retrieval of electronic records in seconds.

In a minute or so, we can examine several alternatives, select the one (s) for presentation,

200 binnovation indicatorsq. 2 We gratefully acknowledge support of the U s. National science Foundation for"QTIPS-24-Hour Technology intelligence & Forecasting"(DMI-0231650.

Nonetheless, the entire process can usually be completed in minutes. The complete search and retrieval process can often be completed in under an hour,

contingent on how delicate the search specification and refining processes are. Those depend on the sensitivity of the MOTISSUES being addressed.

requiring less precision than the second (is this a suitable partner?.In this case, we actually began with searches on bfuel cellsq in general.

We mutually recognized that certain preliminary analyses could be done in 3 minutes enabling refinement of information searches that would drastically upgrade subsequent FTA work.

Over the past decades, many management domains have come to rely quite heavily upon empirical evidence. For example, manufacturing process management used to depend completely on tacit knowledge.

A supervisor spent decades gaining familiarity with his (or occasionally her) machines, people, and processes.

Instead, the quick mindset has the user set the defining temporal parameter the deadline then we technology analysts fit into that schedule.

The Vice-president for Research at Georgia Tech asks me to benchmark this university's SOFC research against the leading American universities for a presentation this noon.

and elucidation of relationships based on text co-occurrence patterns can extend QTIP possibilities. Development of information visualizations especially for S&t offers great potential 12

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:11 03 december 2014 992 A. Salo et al. panel meetings were organised only about seven weeks later than the initial meeting of the panel chairmen. 3. 3. Analytical concepts and methodological

Specifically, about three weeks before the first panel meeting the purpose of which was to address driving forces that would set the stage for the development of focus areas each panellist was requested to propose through the internet three to five driving forces using the template.

whether the focus area was among the most importaan third, the second most important third,

the results of Finnsight were published at an opportune moment for the development of the strategic research plans for these centres.

which has been debated in the Parliament in late 2008.4. Axes of balance in Finnsight Although formal evaluation of Finnsight has been carried out,

This opportune timing gave possibilities for instrumental use, because the foresight results characterised focal competence areas that would plausibly merit explicit attention in strategy implementation.

In fact Slaughter made it clear in his review of a previous decade of futures studies that‘‘As we look ahead it becomes increasingly clear that technical innovation on its own is not the main issue.''

even if the field is not ready to tolerate a new collective term. 2 This leads to the second persistent theme.

review of a decade's futures work, Futures 21 (1989) 447 465.4 H. A. Linstone, Corporate planning, forecasting,

first in the area of genetically modified plants and then for the domain of Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies. 2. Background and rationale 2. 1. Tailoring Foresight a revision During the last two decades the field of Foresight has developed a lot through practical experience

But, undoubtedly, with the dynamics of the ERA building, a European R&i system is emerging,

The European union had approved a number of GM crops until late 1998, but growing public concern over their supposed environmental and health risks led several EU countries to demand the moratorium.

By late 1999 there were enough such countries to block any new approvals of GM produce.

The ERA NET‘‘Nanosci-ERA''is coordinating national programmes: is a Consortium of 17 national research agencies from 12 countries in the European research area

this paper proposes a reasonably validated framework which beyond its acknowledged limitations addresses directly the difficult issue of the design of Foresight activities fit for the emerging European research area (ERA.

ERA is, in short, the integration/coordination of research and innovation policies between the EU and Member States 13 Mona:

we suggest our methodology is applicable indeed for designing such ERA Foresight activities and contribute to address the challenge we face regarding both the ERA and Foresight.

Acknowledgements This paper is based on a workshop organised by the JRC-IPTS European foresight Action at Seville, Spain, June 2008.

refining the co-evolutionary multilevel perspective, Technological forecasting and Social Change 72 (6)( 2005) 681 696.14 R. R. Nelson, S g. Winter, In search of a useful theory of innovation

(ERA), European commission, Luxembourg, 2008.19 D. Braun, Special issue on‘‘The political coordination of knowledge and innovation policies'',Science and Public policy 35 (4)( 2008.

/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 241 43 S. Kuhlmann, ERA-Dynamics Project Strategic Report 2006 2007:

Case study on Chemistry (ERA Dynamics PRIME Project), 2009.45 P. van den Besselaar, A. Schoen, Knowledge dynamics: a network analytical approach, in:

Presentation at the PRIME Winter School on Emerging Nanotechnologies, Grenoble, 4 8 february, 2008.48 A. Bonaccorsi, G. Thoma, Institutional complementarity and inventive performance in nano science and Technology research

Uncertainties and risks have proliferated during the past decade as a result of the increasing complexity of and turbulence in the marketplaces in

or manufacturing mechanisms is one of the latest arrivals to the abstract sets. Cultural topics are of huge importance in the abstract set

Strategy & Business 34 (2003 Spring) 71.2 Stephen Haeckel, Adaptive Enterprise: Creating and Leading Sense

Mckinsey Quarterly 2 (2002) 48 57.7 Mark Buchanan, Power laws and the new science of complexity management, Strategy & Business 34 (2003 Spring) 76.

Daheim and Uerz 7 at the Second FTA Conference in Seville conference noted the emergence of open foresight as a trend,

and that the programme moved sharply towards its second, networking, objective, which saw priorities (in the sense of funded areas) emerge as bottom up projects at a much more focussed level.

a decade earlier an attempt to construct matrices of such interdependence had collapsed under its own weight the idea was pursued not further.

3 There is a certain irony that after 2 decades energy has returned as a key priority

In some parts of Eastern europe priorities are an instrument to move towards a contemporary portfolio and away from the materials science/defence orientation of the Soviet era.

as well as the integration of accession states into the European research area (ERA)''19. Havas and Keenan have noted a tendency in such countries for science systems to be disconnected from innovation

FOREN Guide Foresight for Regional development Network A Practical Guide to Regional foresight, European commission, December 2001.6 H. Chesbrough, The era of open innovation, Sloan Management Review 44 (3)( 2003.

and extensive elements are present. 3. Empirical findings on foresight projects addressing societal challenges 3. 1. Introduction Major societal challenges have been addressed by the foresight community for already several decades.

In the last decade, FTA ACTIVITIES and in particular national and Regional foresight programmes have often been oriented to supporting the functioning and development of innovation systems.

Despite the phenomenal complexity of the contemporary world, there are possibilities for such individuals and groups to make really significant contributions.

The second important factor is the‘‘crisis of science policy''more generally as pressures to restrict burgeoning public expenditure collided with demands from Big science

and shapers, there are liable to be moments of‘‘internalisation''as participants become more familiar with working with the background material and fitting it into their own conceptual frameworks and constellations of interests and also, perhaps,

''Major‘‘combination''moments come in the scenario construction sessions that constitute the heart of the workshop.

safeguards in a world of ambient intelligence (SWAMI), Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, Seville, September 28 29,2006 (available at:

long-wave (Kondratieff)‘ theory,'Schumpeterian‘gales of creative destruction',Nelson and Winter's evolutionary economics and much else besides.

sustainable development can be seen as a proposal with an ethical modernity in its horizon and not only a technical one;

The concept should be understood as the possibility of building a new era of economic development, enabled with policies 22 that keep

Indexes such as FTSE4GOOD Index, 4 Domini 400 Social Index and Dow jones Sustainability Index played a crucial role in the commercial breakthrough that SRI has seen over the last decades due to the fact that they allow benchmarking between the performance

Nevertheless, the number of voluntary standards has risen in the last decades and put companies in difficult situations in abiding by their principles.

at least, the Second International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (September 2006. The greater acknowledgement of the co-evolution of technology and society,

/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 289 References 1 D. Large, Participation and representation, A Review of Sustainability Here and now, in part of The Great Debate:

Towards a New Modernity, Sage, London, 1992.3 F. Soddy, Cartesian Economics: The Bearing of Physical science on State Stewardship, Hendersons, 1922.4 F. Soddy, Wealth, Virtual Wealth and Debt, George Allen and Unwin, 1926.5 H Kahn, W. Brown

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