forks in the road and deep uncertainties that keep executives awake at night. In this context, the definition for drivers of change was decided to focus on things that are accessible
if realised within the next decade, could fundamentally alter our ways of making materials, practicing medicine and computation-making calculations, with pervasive societal impacts.
The candidate country respondents constituted the second largest group. Impact assessment. The impacts of the discontinuities identified were considered to be high by most of the respondents around the globe.
Examples of weak signals by category A b c Society & Culture 61 Concept of rational behaviour in modernity losing value
Unfortunately, she shunned Apollo at the last minute and he added a twist to her gift:
‘‘A significant feature of this era is the strange combination of more than ever long term challenges like climate change with the need for leaders to react in the very short-term conditions of a crisis''.More than ever,
and talk up the latest FTA wares to those who may have need a to apply them. To this end, it is crucial in the future to design
and learn about the latest advances in and applications of FTA. This would suggest the need for continuing evolution of the format of the conference so as to engage policy-makers directly with issues in
''But the rules do not have to be fixed they can change according changes in the system too (for a driver a late night in a bad area may change the first rule to‘‘don't stop for anyone''.
phase change could result in‘‘no cabs for half an hour and then six come around the corner at once''.
of a variety of types Experienced, new, night, cheating Experienced, young, male, female, hungry...use their strategies (rules...
Human Science for a New Era, Transaction Publishers, Piscataway, NJ. Bhimji, W. 2009), Guidance on the Use of Strategic foresight Analysis for Policy development in Government, UK Government office for Science, London, available at:
The scenario process was facilitated by the Finland futures research centre (FFRC) of the University of Turku in late 2008.
The assumptions can be understood as best guesses of the operational environment of the coming decades
in the last decade, changed considerably 21. In the early 90's, especially the growth and (electrical, chemical and mechanical) properties were investigated in great detail.
bwithin this decade, the materials and processes on which the computer revolution has been built will begin to hit fundamental physical limits.
buniversal memory has been a dream for the semiconductor industry for decades we fell that Nantero's innovative approach using carbon nanotubes
Technology assessment (TA) started in the late 1960s as an dearly warningt method 33, merely to inform parliaments about possible negative effects of new technologies.
In the late 1980s the notion of constructive technology assessment (CTA) became apparent in Europe. Many different types of CTA exist depending on the audience, phase of technological development, etc.
while it is unfolding at this very moment gives the opportunity to observe (for example with the method proposed in this paper) the construction of the technology in a more symmetrical way.
References 1 D. Collingridge, The Social control of Technology, Pinter, London, 1980.2 R. R. Nelson, S g. Winter, In search of useful theory of innovation, Research policy 6 (1
In fact, one of the core objectives of a city plan is to take decisions in the present time in order to correctly guide urban activities in the future for the benefit of its citizens.
In the dawn of urbanism visionaries such as Daniel H. Burnham, Lewis Mumford and Le Corbusier made an effort to depict the future of cities in drawings and words.
In the second half of the twentieth century, urban planning abandoned its visionary origins and became more technocratic,
These reasons explain to some extent the scant attention paid by urban planners in the last few decades to the revision and reinvention of futures studies as a field of practical knowledge.
Megawatts hour of electricity per inhabitant consumed in a year Economic growth. Increase of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) or other measures of aggregate income, typically reported as the annual rate of change in real GDP Environment Selective collection of solid waste.
Many second homes will be abandoned by their owners because of maintenance problems, and they will be demolished either or recycled for other urban uses.
case studies 3. 1 Introduction FTA ACTIVITIES, techniques and research have registered an impressive growth over the past decade.
What developments are we likely to see in the coming two to three decades? What do those developments mean for national legal systems in the international legal order as a whole?''
methodologies and selected applications'',paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville.
particularly the sustainability assessments of technology, is prepared by decades of experiences with technology assessments. Consideration of the long term perspective
It has become a widely used technique during the past two decades from the perspective of both individual companies and entire industries.
who argued that the industrial era of the past and today's ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715475 http://www. tandfonline. com
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 730 Editorial information era will be followed by a molecular era,
when moving to the molecular era, thus limiting the possibilities of forecasting. He continued that
or whether they will become the dominant productive force in the next decades. Tuomi kicks off a set of contributions that look more conceptually at how FTA can contribute to identifying
by zooming in on the issue of unpredictability, in line with Linstone's argument on the limitations of forecasting in times of transition between two eras.
Three eras of technology foresight, keynote speech. Fourth international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/documents/download/PRESENTATIONS/Keynotes/FTA%202011
Three eras of technology foresight. Technovation 31, nos. 2 3: 69 76. Ollila, J. 2011. The innovation policy challenge, keynote speech.
for many decades after the telephone was invented, itwas marketed mainly for business use. Itwas often understood either as a newform of telegraphy or as a broadcast medium.
and almost the first five decades of its history, industry actively discouraged such use. This social use of the telephone was invented basically by housewives in the USA, in particular, by those in the Midwest, around the first decade of the twentieth century.
The challenge of ontological unpredictability can thus be formulated in a simple way: How can we predict the number of cattle or the impact of a new technology,
The transitory moment when a proto-eye gains new meaning as an organ of vision is a creative moment
'when we assume an industrial age model of factory-based production, industrial era life patterns and health services,
elderly people could well become the dominant productive force in the next few decades, instead of a grand challenge.
Much depends on the conflict between modernity, with its strong attachment to science, and post-modernity with its questioning of much that modernity accepts.
Staton (2006) drew out the poverty of foresight if Derrida's claim that foresight does not say much about the future is accepted.
while occurring over decades or centuries, bringing life changing events where an appreciation of existence alone will bring the situation into a liveable perspective.
Transformation of quantitative data from science, technology and pseudo-science into information then plays a role, in conjunction with thesteepv constituents,
The scores from the second assessing ability test were a form of calibration of each interviewees assessing ability.
In 1983, Loveridge was only the then latest person to raise questions along the following lines:‘
and their meaning at scales and with methods that are unimaginable at the present time except to a few scientists.
so that its‘certainties'are fraught with the uncertainties of expertise (7) There is the temptation to believe that hugely increased computational power will take FTA into a Kurzwellian era in
During the last decades, dedicated foresight practices have emerged and various approaches and tools have been developed and evaluated (Coates et al. 2001;
markets. 3. Sociology of expectations In the last decade, the so-called sociology of expectations has studied how in scientific and technological developments actors continuously and explicitly refer to what is possible in the future:
In some cases, such as nuclear fusion, this mechanism has secured costly research during decades (e g. on the Joint European Torus and International Thermonuuclea Experimental Reactor),
(which includes many choice moments) with more actors, more perspectives and, in general, more reflection (Schot and Rip 1996;
Sturken et al. 2004) like the‘electronic superhighway'in the 1990s or the‘hydrogen economy'of the last decade.
On the one hand, scholars have shown that in the last two decades a significant number of leading firms of such diverse sectoor as energy, automotive, telecommunications,
The second is‘effect'uncertainty and refers to managers'inability to predict what the consequences of drivers of change will be on their organisations (e g. will customers switch from a traditional product fuel-based car to an innovative one hybrid car?).
Firm Business Foresight activities started Philips Consumer electronics Early 1990s BASF Chemicals Mid-1990s Daimler Automotive Late 1970s Siemens Consumer Products,
Foresight in mature industries Environmental uncertainty and foresight approach The chemical and automotive industries throughout the last decade were typically mature and global industries where trajectories of technologies
in the display and large-screen TV segment, in the last decade, there have been some major market launches of such new technologies as liquid crystal display, plasma display panel, surface-conduction electron-emitter display, organic
these drivers of change did not affect either the identity of these components or the identity of the main activities of value chain of the chemical or the automotive business. 6 Over the last two decades,
What we mean is that, in the last two decades, the automotive and chemical industries were affected not by such‘discontinuous'drivers of change and, more generally,
starting early each spring. First, staff members submit short ideas answering written calls (i e.,, requests for proposals.
many hours of exploring, including reading abstracts, would be required. An alternative approach to tedious review is the development of a link analysis map coupled with an unstructured text-tagging rulebook.
Coming late in the annual process, the results have been more modest than they could have been.
with strategic watersheds decision moments when the organisation has to visit its fundamentals and ponder whether it is going to continue with business as usual, try modest renovations,
The second is the social/actor space, which covers all the issues that are primarily dependent on relations between different social actors inside and outside the organisation.
The first roadmapping phase traced the big picture of the service landscape from the present moment (2009) until 2025.
FTA TOOLS have expanded from technology forecasting of incrementally advancing technologies (e g. consider Moore's law describing some six decades of continual advances in semiconductor capabilities)( Roper et al. 2011).
plus patent analyses has contributed to science and technology studies for decades (cf. Van Raan 1988. With the expansion of databases that compile abstract records
and is possibly entering into an era of rapid commercialisation. We applied science overlay mapping (Leydesdorff
US National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) is second with 4780, but much reduced activity recently;
but has not been mentioned frequently in conjunction with business actions (Factiva database. Dainippon Printing is extremely active in patent families
The use of multiple information sources in conjunction with each other enriches perspective on how the NEST is being developed.
We illustrate the use of multiple information resources in conjunction with expert opinion to inform FIP, with special attention to the experiences in devising a TDS model
He and the co-authors are preparing a Second Edition of Forecasting and Management of Technology (Wiley.
85 90%solar cell market Multi-crystalline silicon Second generation Amorphous silicon To decrease cost To take silicon as the thin film Silicon thin-film solar cell Now,
In the Second and Third Basic Plans, which started in 2001 and 2006 (Government of Japan, 2001,2006),
In conjunction with this principle, a call for innovation through scientific and technological development was mentioned first clearly in the Third Basic Plan.
and the region's place in the era of globalization. 3. Integrative study 3. 1 Advantage of combination A good public investment in research and development needs an overall picture of facets of science
With his summary of the key results of foresight activities in Germany in the early part of the last decade, he also illustrates once more their wide-ranging and interdisciplinary nature and hence the need for an active and carefully designed transfer to research policy making.
and they show the application of this dialogue approach in a range of different situations. 5. 1 Strategic dialogue to transfer results from the BMBF Foresight process Strategic dialogues were conducted, for example, for focus areas from the latest BMBF Foresight process (German Federal Ministry
and results described in the case study. 3. 2 Scope and context of the exercise In the second half of 2010,
During the second half of the project, Forfa's posed the question of how the global drivers
Rationales for the European research area (ERA), Report of the ERA Expert Group, European commission, Brussels. European commission DG Research (2009), Preparing Europe for a New Renaissance.
Accordingly, a difficult environmental situation has been developing in Russia over the decades, which negatively affects the quality of life, health and life expectancy.
It included three critical technologies (at the second thematic level: B prevention and liquidation of environmental pollution, monitoring
Technology 19 (Basic materials chemistry) is prospected also by these three countries as second hot application technology before the year 2020,
The second most intensive linkage of the interaction is source technology 17 (Macromolecular chemistry, polymers) to application technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy.
complex and adaptive nature of the systems we are dealing with today are moving from one technological era to another.
and methods of social scanning and prediction markets could be used to improve professional forecasting and foresight in an era of complex phenomena and disruptive events with high level of uncertainties.
On the other hand, qualitative approaches have been adopted for many decades (e g. scenarios) with no other involvement than that of the FTA EXPERTS.
Forecast. 17 (2010) 5 7. 12 H. A. Linstone, Three eras of technology foresight, keynote speech, in:
Accessed July 2012.13 H. A. Linstone, Three eras of technology foresight, Technovation 31 (2011) 69 76.14 I. Tuomi, Foresight in an unpredictable world, Technol.
and the label information of the second 12 test points (1997 2008) of NBS can be matched with that in the growth stage of TFT-LCD.
Recognition of this fact in last decades is leading firmly to a new scientific paradigm, a complex bio-socioeconomics, with the convergence of different fields of science toward
Universal Darwinism 1. Introductory thoughts The main objective of this seminar concerns the exploitation of the powerful new capabilities provided by the Information technology Era to advance Future-oriented technology analysis (TFA), both product and process.
and we can even trace an at least three-decade long debate on this issue. What makes the difference now are exactly the powerful new capabilities provided by the Information technology Era
and the manifold convergence of information and molecular technologies that are contributing enormously to new insights in simulation methods and evolutionary programming.
some important modeling attempts were undertaken along with the last decades and I think that some of the above mentioned points are hindering the development of working computational algorithms to simulate technological evolution.
Recognition of this fact in last decades is leading firmly to a new scientific paradigm, a complex bio-socioeconomics
By the same epoch, and not necessarily motivated by evolutionary concepts, the bio-mathematicians Vito Volterra and Alfred Lotka popularized a set of differential equations to describe the growth of population levels,
but by shifting the context and timing of their expression within the developmental sequence of an organism.
#Evolution of organisms is the conjunction of two facts: the selective amplification of genotypes based on the differential reproductive success conveyed by their phenotypes through chance events at the level of genotypes.
as for instance the very often cited books of Nelson and Winter 16 and Basalla 17.
T in the way paved by the German philosopher of technology Hans Sachsse 18 almost three decades ago.
& Social Change 72 (2005) 1137 1152 1145 never correctly realized that Darwin in his second
But during the last two decades we have seen a growing interest in evolutionary ideas among economists.
This upswing in evolutionary economics was in great part due to the renewed interest in the discussion on long waves in economics during the last two decades
asserting that our knowledge consists, at every moment, of those hypotheses that have shown their fitness by surviving so far in their struggle for existence,
The formal mathematical models developed in the past two decades and most often used are (mentioning only some important publications for each approach):
& Social Change 72 (2005) 1137 1152 1150 recent proposal of this author with George Modelski for a seminar on Globalization as Evolutionary Process 40 to be held in the spring of 2005 in Paris,
From Chaos To order, Perseus Books, Cambridge, Ma, 1998.15 J. Ziman (Ed.),Technological innovation as an Evolutionary Process, Cambridge university Press, 2003.16 R. R. Nelson, S g. Winter
And policies that are optimal for dynamically complex issues at a particular point in time often fail at other moments in time.
and the importance to present a spectrum of runs under very different hypotheses covering the range of their variation was recognized decades ago 14, p. 149,
In a recent special issue of Technological forecasting and Social Change on adaptivity in decision-making, the guest editors conclude that Adaptive policy-making is a way of dealing with deep uncertainty that falls between too much precaution and acting too late.
the first decade of global modelling, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, 1982.15 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber, Adaptive foresight:
and even some base metals such as copper 19 22 and lead 23 may in a few decades become more difficult and expensive to mine and process,
The construction of a new runway and the moving of operations are in this approach not planned for a particular moment in time,
This means that practice, such as scenario practice, is rooted in a particular moment and place. In accordance with Cunliff 27 and to be consistent with reflexive inquiry,
The development of innovation theory over the past decades has involved a major reformulation, with innovation no longer seen primarily as a process of discovery,
This means that situations are rooted in a particular moment and place and seen through the perspective of a certain set of lenses 45.3.3.
Proceedings of the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making-Seville 28 29,september 2006, 2006.4 H. S. Becker, Scenarios:
Proceedings of the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 28 29,september 2006, 2006.30 H. Lawson, Reflexivity, The Postmodern Predicament, Open Court, La Salle, IL, 1985.31 J
Towards a Theory of innovation and Interactive learning, Pinter, London, 1992.35 R. Nelson, S. Winter, In search of a useful theory of innovation, Res.
sense-making and decision-making in late modernity, Futures 38 (2006) 350 366.77 P. De Smedt, Can Negotiating the Future Influence Policy and Social change?
but rather on the longer-term interplay between the organizational settings in both countries and the future-oriented nanotechnology analysis. In countries such as the US and Germany, where FTA on nanotechnology were already underway in the late 1980s,
A decade ago, the question addressed how to maximize the contribution of such technologies to economic innovation with the intention of enhancing competitiveness 1, 2. Today,
which contains the same elements as those used over the last decades: nanotechnologies include understanding and controlling matter
Early and radical visions that shaped the field in the late 1980s were published by individual thinkers 17,18.
In contrast to the US, the German government has launched several technology foresight processes in the last decade 33,34.
The early individual vision of Eric Drexler, who envisioned a distant future vision of molecular manufacturing in the late 1980s,
The Coming Era of Nanotechnology 17, Drexler developed far reaching new ideas of the possibilities and risks of technologies on the nanoscale.
and his ideas became a disputed reference point in the debate around nanotechnology in the late 1980s and the 1990s.
and Development in The next Decade 1. Vision building at this stage was accompanied by early cooperation and coordination between and among agencies and departments of the federal government.
and presenting concepts of how to establish nanotechnology as a general-purpose technology in the next decade,
the new report written a decade later focuses more on governance and on concepts to involve
The vision report states that during the next decade application-driven research will produce new scientific discoveries and economic optimization leading to new technologies and industries.
which took place in the first decade after defining the long-term vision, focused on interdisciplinary research at the nanoscale
The second foundational phase (2011 2020) is planned to be focused on the integration of nanoscale science
The goals defined in the latest NNI strategic plan of 2011 address this user-centric ecosystem by covering the whole ecosystem of innovation:
the activities under the umbrella of the National science and Technology Council Subcommittee were per se closely policy-related and, in the last decade,
Over more than a decade, the US science policy community established a continuously working core organization, built up a network and opened the network gradually to new stakeholders
started in the late 1980s and focused in the early stages on technology analysis, market analyses and technology assessment activities.
In summary, for over a decade, the German variety of FTA ACTIVITIES was governed mainly by one ministry (BMBF) and focused largely on science industry relations.
and this institutional fragmentation can also be observed with regard to the governance of science, technology and innovation in the field of nanotechnology. 4. Comparing the US and Germany 4. 1. Timing and intervention Between the late 1980s and the late 1990s,
Several industrial countries established their first programs in that field in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
Not only the range of stakeholders involved was increasing in the last decade, but also the kinds of processes expanded from studies based on expert surveys to processes involving more stakeholders (such as NGOS and citizens).
such as the late consideration of societal challenges, there are also differences in governance structures. In Germany, disparate sources of knowledge were pooled not
In the late 1980s and early 1990s, several industrial countries established their first programs in 450 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452
In the last two decades, FTA ACTIVITIES were important means for integrating the field and in spreading the idea that nanotechnology would become one of the key enabling technologies of the 21st century.
Looking ahead to the next decades, an inter-organizational governance framework is crucial to uptake the knowledge as well as the requirements derived from various stakeholders.
IWGN workshop report, Vision for Nanotechnology research and Development in The next Decade, 1999.2 BMBF, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, in:
Res. 13 (2011) 427 445.17 K. E. Drexler, Engines of creation, The Coming Era of Nanotechnology, Anchor Press, New york, 1987.18 K. E. Drexler
For decades the dominant definition of innovation as new products and processes that are introduced to the market combined with the common understanding of companies as the main actors in this process was questioned hardly ever.
Future-oriented Innovation Foresight Grand challenges Disruptive Transformations When circumstances become more turbulent it is often the case that an era is regarded retrospectively as one of calm
In the current less stable economic, political and social environment it is possible to apply such a lens to the preceding two or three decades.
The second powerful strand has been a package of measures designed to reinforce research business linkages,
and more by a process of geological accretion where the structures and policy styles of earlier decades continue, perhaps with some diminution,
but a counter hypothesis would suggest that deeply embedded institutions are equipped better to fight for survival (one thinks of the persistence of at best partially-reformed institutions from the Soviet-dominated era in some post-transition countries).
most noticeably but by no means exclusively at European level where societal challenges such as health, energy and food security, transport, climate and resources and innovative and secure societies became first a part of the ERA debate 10 and subsequently a central
Of course the‘‘story''of FTA over the last decade can be presented in many ways ours is only one of many possible versions,
A second related weakness is signalled by the difficulty of making a credible case for the links between the case studies and the associated methodologies.
This late adoption may be due to several reasons. First, during the 1970s, Denmark had some rather negative experiences with prospective planning.
Finally, for several decades, the Danish Board of Technology (DBT) has played an active and internationally recognised role in the political and wider public debate that concerns the potential and consequences of science and technology.
But this context has changed during the recent decade. Based on the Danish Globalisation Strategy from 2005, public expenditures on R&d have increased.
this context has changed during recent decades with increased national R&d budgets and the establishment of a strategic research council.
it must be noted that over several decades, Denmark has carried out foresight-like processes and strategic planning within individual sectors.
Research2015 aimed to set priorities for the government's strategic research programme or at least, parts of this programme. 4. 1. The government's Globalisation Strategy In the spring of 2005,
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