Motives behind the selection of foresight methods, the timing involved in using insights from foresight studies in strategic policy-making processes, the added value of foresight methods,
When this buy in happens too late in the process, there is less internal support, and policy-makers and politicians will not experience the added value of the scenario analysis.
To summarise, national level policy-makers seem to be equipped better to conduct foresight studies than their counterparts at the local level. 3. 5. 2. Timing of the foresight study Both at the local and national level,
policy-makers indicated they consider the timing of a future study to be a crucial success factor
The optimal timing is related to the reason for conducting a future study. If it is to increase awareness about the future
the timing of the scenarios will be compared different to a situation where the motive is to test policies by means of scenarios (the latter will take place at a later stage in the policy process).
or Secretary is installed is seen as a good moment, because as a result civil servants are prepared well to discuss the new policies with the new Ministers and Secretaries.
In appropriate timing of the foresight study has been deemed a factor contributing to the failure to apply the insights of a foresight study.
if they are fully in step with the policy-making process, in terms of their timing, cultural compatibility and usability.
timing and institutional constraints. Section 6 summarises the main conclusions. 2. Global foresight design and management The design and management of global foresight projects,
and stakeholders the second planned workshop was devoted to develop a common vision. Here, although JRC-IPTS was facilitating and giving direction to the discussions,
Proceedings from the IMS2020 Summer School o Sustainable Manufacturing, 26 28 may 2010, ETH Zurich, Switzerland, 2010.28 E. Dall, C. Cagnin, Regional foresight a case
The IMS Summer School Manufacturing Strategy First Edition 2010: Sustainable Manufacturing, 2010.34 D. Klimkeit, Organizational context and collaboration on international projects:
Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe and Karlsruhe Institute of technology, Karlsruhe, Germany Received 29 february 2008 Introduction The contributions included in this special issue build on material presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA
as contribution towards the establishment of common research policy (i e. the so-called European research area (ERA). 3 This contribution refers to a very specific project
http://ec. europa. eu/research/era/index en. html. 2 http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta/intro. html. 458 F
Moscow 101000, Russia 1. Introduction Over the last decade, scholars, policy makers and practitioners from various fields have witnessed
The nature of innovation in this new era is fundamentally different from the earlier technology push
Moreover, traditional user research methods tend to be focused on the‘here and now'and in most cases,
/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 41 IF aims to go beyond the‘here and now 'and is situated at the intersection of Foresight, user/market research and humancenntre product design.
They represent two different approaches for going beyond the‘here and now'in the context of innovation research. 3. Illustrations from two empirical case-studies 3. 1. Study 1:
The second column‘market potential+5y'indicates the experts'mean estimated potential five years from the moment of surveying (end 2014.
The probe consisted of seven small assignments/questions, one for each day in a week. On day 1
IF aims to go beyond the dominant‘here and now'focus in traditional user research and draws on participation and inclusion of different types of users (not only experts).
when used in conjunction with other models such as the BSC, the Quality Function Deployment 26 and the GBN method 27.
the first a monitoring and control circuit (single loop) and the second a learning circuit (double loop.
These were generated through the development of strategy maps (phase 2), in conjunction with the city of Floriano'polis, SC, Brazil and relevant stakeholders,
This means that there is a need to establish clear priorities with deadlines and to enable the community to monitor success during the next five years.
41 (2000) 29 40.3 A. Raps, Implementing strategy, Strategic Finance June (2004) 49 54.4 H. Mintzberg, The fall and rise of strategic planning, Harvard Business Review
The last two decades have seen an increase in collaborations between different organizations driven by at least five trends in corporate innovation:
and as an instrument to increase the number of new innovations the second of the key roles described above.
data collection instruments included access to key documents, such as reports, internal documents, presentations and meeting minutes and observations through active participation within the organizations and, to some extent, in the build up Phase in the WINN
EIT ICT Labs The European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) is the latest attempt of the European commission (EC) to increase European innovation performance.
In 2008, the European parliament and Council established the EIT as an independent agency in the EU. In the summer of 2009,
Later, both, the KIC's vision and strategy were in conjunction with the revision of the EIT's SIA.
Others revealed that they are unsure to this moment how to effectively reintegrate information from the network in internal processes (outside-in.
) 1051 1067.38 H. Chesbrough, The era of open innovation, Sloan Management Review 44 (2003) 35 41.39 T. Heger, R. Rohrbeck, Strategic foresight for collaborative exploration
These functions were an important outcome of the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis held in 2006.
Paper presennte at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 Septembbe 2006, Seville, Spain.
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september, Seville, Spain.
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain
identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge Victor van Rij Over the past decade, horizon scanning has been recognised as part of forward-looking government processes in a number of industrialised countries.
in March 2007 and a second in October 2007. The possible use of the horizon scan data at the European commission (EC) level was discussed in interviews with representattive of different directorates within the EC.
to clarify the picture of the most relevant relationnship in a shared process (with the involvement of decision-makers) on a much earlier moment than usual
and media industries (where the value of the content is linked closely to its accuracy and timeliness).
The second involves the emergeenc of proprietary and convergent platforms for content selection and distribution.
and the open issue of the likely development and importtanc of virtual worlds (like Second Life) and multiplayer online games (like World of Warcraft.
for instance by adding a scenario development phase late on in the project. This becaam necessary because the range of possible futures turned out to be broader than was expected initially.
in the present era of public funding accountability, remaining viable in the long term seems to be a critical indicator of success. In terms of critical success factors it was interestiin to note that all the studies showed that foresight delivery
However, indirect and/or unanticipaate impacts that fall outside the scope of speciifi programme goals
innovations implemented and legislation adopted Table 3. Success factors influencing the political role of participatory technology assessment Societal Institutional Process properties Good timing
in this era of public funding accountability, seems to be critical in itself as an indication of success. As many subjects stated,
and websites devoted to key stakeholders to an approach of getting in the elevator with key decision-makers to give them 60 second elevaato speeches.
'Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Futuureoriented Technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
the trends of potential infectious diseases, the timing of the emergence of those diseases, the level of severity of the impacts from the spread of those infectious diseases to communiitie etc.
2005) where EID become a threat in the Asia-pacific region over the next decade and beyoond Thirty three experts from seven economies met in Thailand in February 2007 to develop scenarios for the future of EID in the Asia-pacific region.
Future diagnostic or communication technologies could potentially improve upon the likelihood and timing of diagnoosi and reporting.
The project was announced concluded in late 2008 and the full report (APEC CTF, 2008) with policy recommendatiio was presented at the 34th APEC Industrial Sciennc
medicine with testing linked to information networks and personalized treatment High throughput technologies Rapid pathogen genetic characterization, high level of biosecurity Users'requirement Access to latest technologies
high polymerase chain reaction capacity High throughput genetic sequencing Multiplex testing Access to latest and developing diagnostic technologies High-level investigative capacity and capability Local site Regional
and communication technologies (ICT) has been challenged in various ways over the last few decades. Due to extensive convergeenc in the domains of communication, consumer electronics, computing
and which propagates the industry's‘push'perspectiive has dominated the theoretical debate for several decades.
we zoom in on distinct moments of user involvement during the three stages (see Figure 1),
Blind aid Spare time suggestions Museum tour Cot death alarm Mobile search Event information Table 1. Archetype Patricia and some of her daily activities Time use
and information (Mobnews cluster) 3. 11/5 Public transport schedules 4. 11/5 Checking available places in cinema 3. 72/5 Spare time suggestions 3. 10/5 Payments and financial affairs
For the firms that compleete their subsidized R&d during the second half of the reference period, particularly in the year 2002, it is questionable,
This paper will focus on strategic foresight, taking advantaag of CGEE's background in conducting strategic foresiigh exercises and strategic evaluation studies during the past decade, all of
Preparation and delivery timing: Government: the sense of timing is related to politicca opportunities which arise to create initiatives and projects in the course of a given government mandate.
The main challenge is to introduce long-term perception and analysis to foster strategic foresight of interest to the state more than a given government structure.
the sense of timing is driven by increased competition in the internal and external markets, requiring immediate solutions to the problems identified,
In the last decades, the rise of new public management within state administration has had also a major impact on science policy-making,
The second is related to institutiionand capacity-building and governance of the S&t system, and in particular floor funding of academic institutiions Ergas'work
in modern times it has lagged behind Western countries in S&t (Ke 2004). Beginning with the founding of People's republic of china in 1949, a Socialist centralized S&t system was built in the 1950s by adding the Soviet model of centralized planning onto the S&t system that had emerged in the Republic of china (e g.
Throughout the era, Chinese leaders have pointed to science as a key to economic progress and competitiveness, most recently through the concept of‘scientific development'and the launching of the indigennou innovation strategy (e g.
The latest MLP was presented in February 2006 and lasts until 2020. It proposed guidelines which are expressed in 16 Chinese characters:
which goals are pursued through the various priorities identified in the latest and largest plans and programs.
Thus, in the making of the latest Medium and Long-term Plan, an‘expert consulttatio group for the overall strategy for the Mediumaan Long-term Plan'consisting of around 20 senior scienttist was created in 2003 to provide input to the‘leading group'which was made up of the Prime minister
agriculture. 1. Introduction Over the last two decades scholars working on innovattio systems have established different ways in
2004), is developed the biotechnology in the post-genetic engineering era in the 1970s and comprised of a broad range of knowledge fields. 1 The biotechnology developed before the post-genetic engineering era is defined in this paper as traditional biotechnology.
While the majority of the existing literature on modern biotechnollog focuses on the empirical experiences of European countries and the USA (Mckelvey et al. 2004;
some Taiwanese universities also set up locally. 6 Until the late 1970s, there was a total of six pharmaceutical colleges in the universities of Taiwan (Zheng 2001:
if neglected, have catastrophic consequences on a global scale over the next few decades. But they also reflect a more overt steering of STI efforts at least those funded by the public purse to meet explicit political goals.
The aim is to rejuvenate the European research area (ERA), an overt political project, which, since its adoption a decade ago, has yet to meet the expectatiion of European policy-makers.
It is hoped that the agreement and articulation of grand challenges at the EU level will mobilise Member States to better synchronise their STI policy instruments,
thereby contributing to the realisation of a fully fledged ERA. However, these efforts face many practical and conceptuua hurdles.
Addressing grand challenges is at the core of EU policies for research and innovation as illustrated by the latest EU strategic policy documents.
See<http://www. era. gv. at/space/11442/directory/19999/doc/21643. html>accessed Dec 2011.11.
References Acheson, H.,Amanatidou, E. and Boekholt, P. 2007)‘ Optimising research programmes and priorities',Report of the ERA Expert Group, EUR 23324.
2010)‘ The impact of European policy on the development of the ERA in the areas relevant to environmennt'Draft Final Report.
The categories of grand challenges identified by theeuropean Research area (ERA) Rationales Expert Group (European commission 2008) provide one typology of transformations.
Setting up dedicated and temporary FTA projects or programmes has been a very common model over the past two decades.
which has grown over the past decade. In FTA, networks can relate to individuals, and are enabled peer-to-peer through information technology and the internet (cf.
and constitute the second main dimension. However, which of these three basic organisatioona models best fits the requirements is also a matter of the governance mode (co-existence, competition, cooperattio or integration)
By looking into the latest developments in how FTA systems understood as combination of governance modes
or are recognised too late, crises are inevitable. Emerging shortages of food, water and other resources, due to demographic trends and human activities, will have far reaching economic and social consequences,
and adapt these in view of the latest world developments. In this context, it is imperative that foresight initiatives to address global challenges are carried out at regular intervals to build a common understanding of current situatiion
2008)‘ Challenging Europe's Research Rationales for the European research area (ERA)',Report of the ERA Expert Group, EUR 23326 EN.
<http://ec. europa. eu/research/era/pdf/eg7-era-rationales-final-report en. pdf>accessed 15 dec 2011.
michael. keenan@oecd. org Over the coming decades, science will play a key role in society's response to emerging global‘grand challenges'.
which has explored how two decades hence international collaboration in science could foster progress in science and address global challenges.
The purpose of its current foresight exercise is to explore the potential development of international science over the next two decades in a changing economic, social, political and environmental context.
This IGY heralded a new era in collaborative earth sciences research. Taking place at Orienting international science cooperation to meet global‘grand challenges'.
This approach was especially important in the first phase where numerous existing project meetings were able to set aside an hour
particularly climate change, involve change over relatively long time periods measured at least in decades. But this is too long for an exercise that is focused on organisational agility and a vision for international science cooperatiion Given the relative trade-offs,
and scale over the coming two decades as they were in the previous and there is certainly reason to believe that some major disruptions lay ahead in the medium term,
from oceans to ecosysteem to the cryosphere and atmosphere, the forecasts are consistent in suggesting broad changes with major impacts on society over the coming two decades..
there is a high degree of certainty that these will occur over the next two decades, probably in several fields..
The second selected axis was based on the‘science and society'driver. At one end of this axis
but new systems may develop over the coming two decades, possibly informed by greater consideration of the environment.
The last decade has seen significant changes in the nature of the scientific record. The move to open-access publishing is likely to have a number of impacts, in particular,
and articulating the challenges to be faced by international science cooperation over the coming decades. The new plan also includes commitments to engage the ICSU memberrshi in continuing foresight analysis
International Cooperation in Science and Technology',report of the ERA Expert Group 5, Directorate-General for Research, EUR 23325 EN.
2011)‘ iknow ERA Toolkit: Applications of Wild Cards and Weak signals to the Grand challenges and Thematic Priorities of the European research area'.
The second is the building of advocacy coalitions. Foresight builds up an‘interaction space'by stimulating new networks and communities through the formation of a common vision.
The second is the emerging culture of strategy roadmapping in which the roadmapping is perceived more as a dynamic
and align their timing. Particularly when developmeent commercialization and diffusion of innovation takes place in a context with a high degree of systemic characteristics
companies that operate across several jurisdictions report high compliance costs due to multiple regulatory frameworrks The second bottleneck is based the project nature of construction, with little replication at the design level.
The second is the economic recession. Recession is empathetically a double-edged phenomenon: it can be a driver for environmental solutions by focusing on issues such as the reduction of materials
Foresight processes can produce outcomes that spring from interactions between multiple stakeholders. The success of the systemic foresight process could be evaluated, for example,
T. Ko nno la and K. Haegeman 2. 2 Dimensions of co-ordination of transnational research programming The challenges of transnational research collaboration have been addressed for decades,
In last two decades systemic challenges in research and innovation have lead to the development of systemic Embedding foresight in transnational research programming. 195 instruments for better preparedness, co-ordination and integrratio of research and innovation systems
Based on the results of the last workshop for funding organisaations three working groups were formed such that each consisted of funding organisations with shared interesst in the topic of the working group. 3. 1. 2 EMIDA ERA-NET27.
and respective foresight roles Case Partners Timing Goal Role of foresight Wood Wisdom-net20 18 partners from 8 European countries 2004 8 Establish
support mobilising and networking of innovation communities across borders EMIDA ERA-NET21 29 partners (and three observers) of 19 EU Member States and Associated Countries 2008 11 Develop a durable focused network22 of national research funders in Member and Associated States of EU in order to share information,
ERAWATCH is a platform collecting data on national research systems in the ERA, including policy documents and research programmes. 11.
NETWATCH collects data on transnational research collaboration in the ERA. 12. In Europe the following European and intergovernmennta mechanisms are in place:
2010a)‘ A vision for strengthening world-class research infrastructures in the ERA',Report from the Expert Group on Research infrastructures, Directorate-General for Research, Directorate B European research area:
Gnamus, A. 2009) Comparative Report on S&t Cooperation of the ERA Countries with Brazil, India and Russia, JRC Scientific and Technical Reports, EUR 25022 EN.<
<http://www. era. gv. at/attach/Urban-Report ecassessment 201104 final. pdf>accessed 15 march 2012. Embedding foresight in transnational research programming. 207
and is bound to the moment in which it is executed. Thus, there is a limited possibility for retrieving new information.
the timing of bringing up signals or emerging issues could be a crucial factor for their further consideration in the policy-making arena.
Apart from timing, there are also challenges in bringing forward a potential emerging issue or early signal to policy-makers.
The special nature of horizon scanning activities points to the importance of continuity to increase the relevance, validity and timeliness of the information.
for instance, indicates that the first criterion is the most importtant followed by the second and then the third.
2. 1. 2 Second example. The State of the Future reports of the UN Millennium Project can be regarded as another source for‘megatrends'and long-lasting challenges for the future.
The specific challenges served as a framework for the second bottom-up, part of the process. Within a competitive call, institutes teamed up to develop technological solutions to the challenges in the form of collaborative project proposals.
Sum 25 5 137 Table 4. Second Round Round 2 Challenge Project ideas Selected Projects Teams involved Mobility 6 tbd
Other institutes were involved often quite late in the development and formulation of the problem-solving process.
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