Time

Beginning (205)
Durations (82)
Past (48)
Present (220)
Temporal arrangement (27)
Temporal properties (23)
Time (574)
Time periods (504)

Synopsis: Time & dates: Time & duration: Time:

The diversity among these disciplines reflects the complexity of demands for FTA relating to differences in scope (geographic scale and time horizon;

if taken some future time. This does not mean that all strategic decisions should be deferred. Rather it is the careful combining of commitment

and thus at least over time should be able to overcome the impressionism of conventional foresight, while on the other hand not capitulating to the conventional wisdom as might be the case

This strand of thinking has been developed by many researchers and practitioners over a considerable time-span.

designed to exploit progressively improved understanding as time goes by. Combining insights on limitations to foresight (used here as an everyday term) and control,

In the face of the uncertainty that a fire might break out in one's house at some future point in time,

and reconsider over time. It is here and in other domains with similar characteristics e g.,

Moreover, the impact and effectiveness of policies depend on their time of implementation. 2. 2. 3. Portfolios of options We have used so far the term package to catch the need to combine a number of elementary options to achieve a robust,

K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 adaptable enough to allow the second-period decision to go for any of the considered visionary structures at reasonable lead-time

Depending on the available time such a workshop can be used to start off several of the phases,

in a way useful also for non-experts in innovation research, convey the notion that the complex innovation system logic discussed above may develop over time in alternative, qualitatively different, ways.

and offensive by keeping options open until their time has come (or they can be discarded);

Forskning och energi i svensk politik Time of the Big Programmes: Research and Energy in Swedish Politics, Akademilitteratur, Stockholm, 1984.28 K. M. Weber, Foresight and portfolio analysis as complementary elements in anticipatory policy-making, in:

if such a project were to be launched at a later time. Industrial leaders consisted of R&d and business managers in the forestry-related industry.

sufficient time will be needed for deliberative discussions of intermediate results. In addition, there are many more interfaces to be accounted for (e g.,

and over time. The most important science and technology indicators are publications in scientific journals and patents 20.

the time between the applications of patents and the market introduction of products based on these patents requires in general several years

Surveys are rather time-intensive, since they require the development of a questionnaire, the performance of a survey either via traditional postal mail or via online survey, the collection and cleaning of the data and finally, the analysis of the data.

already published in 2001, with regard to their expected time of realisation, their importance, the effectiveness of policy measures, like R&d support,

sophistication of e-commerce networks and improved efficiency of business cycle times, resulting in a dramatic reduction of inventory risk for companies. 2014 3. 65 3. 42 1. 86 2. 35 2. 38 All public transport bookings, confirmation of transport services,

and time-consuming, involving numerous experts. They require a very careful performance of the often multi-stage methodological processes.

since the time frame of such studies should not be much more than ten years. A classical feature of the Delphi methodology is the promotion of a convergence process leading to a consensus by surveying the experts at least twice

countries and over time Little information about possible types of regulation Detailed analysis allows the identification of specific regulation-relevant content

and the organisation Detect insights of specific needs for future regulation High cost and time-consuming Qualitative Assessment of future relevance of regulation,

or earlier situations) Long time series generally not available Delphi studies Qualitative Qualitative and semiquantiitativ data from Delphi surveys Consensus-building to reduce uncertainty about regulatory priorities

) and future time horizon 513 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 representatives of public organisations and regulatory bodies,

In addition, the time frame of Delphi studies focusing on regulatory issues should be much shorter covering only the next ten years,

like the patent or copyright system, longer time ranges may be appropriate. In order to illustrate and analyse different regulatory options,

'and capitalising on fortuitous events until such time that there is a feeling of stabilisation and assessments and forecasts have become more reliable.

The aim was to explain what microeconomics at the time was unable to do: Why do certain technologies become dominant

They can be defined as‘socio-technical entanglements which over time enable and constrain alignments and activities of persons,

'14 Irreversibilities grow over time, shaping and being shaped by the historical affordance structures which guide path dynamics.

Thus over time as the S&t field becomes more stabilised, the patchwork of emerging irreversibilities become part of the affordance structure that shapes ongoing dynamics within the socio-technical path.

and (5) general time axis and stages of innovation chain. The actual MPM would show many more specific paths plotted within the clusters of MCA

These scenarios in themselves contained reliable information on the current situation and selected prospective chronologies of innovations in cell-on-a-chip (rather than possible choices to go for.

there is little acknowledgement of time spent on doing this as opposed to research and teaching. 23 One way of doing this is developing an integrated platform based on an interesting 18 This agglomeration effect of technology platforms is particularly strong for nanotechnologies 67.

and over time, reshape the portfolio. MPM helps answering relevant questions such as: What specific kinds of innovation chains can be stimulated?

At the time of writing (March 2007) we can undertake some preliminary impact assessment because the conceptual development and refinement of the MPMS was linked up with an interactive workshop.

although sharing some methodological characteristics and similarities in terms of time horizons and audiences addressed, usually have different aims, scopes and levels of implementation.

The alignment of actors goes beyond the usual actors in previous times (i e. government, industry and scientists.

which echoed political discussions that were occurring more widely in Sweden at the time, did not manage to attract the same level of publicity

Perceptions and goals may change over time. Two processes thus facilitate alignment within constituencies: consultation and communication concerning the nature of perceptions and goals and the possibility of aligning existing perceptions and goals by maximising collaboration and minimising competition;

in Section 4 alternative visions are devised at three levels, with the time horizon of 2020 2025.

higher education and‘basic'science are not that closely interconnected nowadays as they used to be, partly because of the changing nature of higher education,

and along the time dimension, too, i e. short-,medium-and long-term policies also need to be harmonised 48.

strong academia industry co-operation, mutually beneficial, intense links among large firms and SMES in a large number of regions (gradually increasing over time) Intense communication among businesses, academia,

Moreover, devising 10 15 visions for the ERIA (2 3 ERIA visions times 5 EU visions) would introduce an unmanageable complexity into this exercise.

Further, as nowadays 30 40%of the relevant age group attend higher education courses, an ever larger number of higher education organisations offer mainly or only teaching.

especially in terms of time needed for background analyses and then discussions among the participants. It has several advantages, too;

given the time needed for these processes, as well as the potential tensions occurring while discussing the actions and their consequences.

Differences to the USA and Changes Over Time, WIFO, 2005.48 J. Romanainen, National Governments, Contribution to the DG Research Expert Group on The Future of Key Research actors in the European research area, 2005.

biotechnology and material sectors 1. The forces impelling convergence at the time are seen as radical, revolutionary,

the actual choices at the time appeared divergent and highly contested. One approach to the management of technological uncertainty has been to initiate the technological forecasting process only once a dominant design has emerged 3. Once a dominant design has been selected,

then the designer will be free to spend more time at value-enhancing activities. The roadmapping activity achieves value by providing a single locus for coordinated research and development activity (see for instance 19.

This network configuration should be expected to be observed 4. 3%of the time, or roughly one in 24 times.

In contrast, realization 2 is a possible but unlikely realization of the network since most of the high probability connections did not actually occur (Fig. 2). This network occurs 0. 8%of the time,

or roughly one in 125 realizations. These likelihoods may be calculated by an equation closely related to the binomial distribution.

We therefore need a way to structure the search to spend most of our time on the most likely network structures.

a million runs are completed in 54 s of processing time. In practice, the algorithm is let run as long as there are consistent improvements in model fitting and likelihood.

This new standard for rich Internet applications was incorporated in a recent beta version of Internet explorer 8. 5. Policy impacts These developments in ARIA are less than a year old at the time this paper was written the W3c posted a working draft

high costs, high uncertainty, technological inexperience, business inexperience, lengthy time to market, and the general destruction of firm competence 17,29, 30.

Due to long life times of infrastructures, strategic decision making has to explicitly consider uncertainties in context conditions,

Nowadays infrastructure organizations are confronted with an increasing amount of future uncertainty 3 that calls for a fundamental reconsideration of the former success model, at least in three respects:(

Due to the long life time of their key technical components and the strong coupling between technological and institutional structures they exhibit strong path dependencies 11.

Given the long life times of most infrastructures, strategic investment decisions will only take place every couple of decades.

performance and sustainability impacts of infrastructures over their long life time. Changes in context conditions outside the considered range may entail very costly adaptation measures (see e g. 17),

and system alternatives for an infrastructure system in the time horizon of 25 years which is congruent with the expected average lifetime of central infrastructure components.

The sanitation system has limited flexibility to adapt to changing context conditions as its key technical components have a very long life time (e g. sewer system last 80 years,

to 2. 5 full time equivalents each. The plant operating organizations are associations of communities,

We argued that due to the long life times of key technical components of these sectors

The context, emphasis and time horizons of examination vary, however. For instance, risk assessment in the context of industrial process safety aims to predict the risk caused by a failure, deviation,

The time horizon considered typically is a couple of years maximum referring to the practice to revise the analysis every three to five years.

The time horizon varies from some five to fifty years, depending on the issues examined and the purpose of the foresight exercise.

The time frame of the study was the year 2015. The study addresses that the more the scope of risk analysis is moving into a not-so-well-known field the more the risk identification becomes the crucial part of the process 28.

as well as the drivers and bottlenecks of the ongoing business in a defined time perspective 29.

Risks, Potential and Adaptation (CES, time frame 2007 2010. The project aims at assessing the development of the Nordic electricity system for the next 20 30 years.

Fig. 5 also shows that the assessment of new emerging risks demands longer time-frame and a more contingent examination approach.

and risk assessment traditions in emerging risk assessment would then help in applying the more contingent and holistic approach in more fixed and short time risk assessment exercises.

Fig. 5. The relationships between risk assessment and FTA METHODS according to the time frame and approach. 1172 R. Koivisto et al./

which is more common nowadays, for instance, in FTA APPROACH. Either way, both approaches may benefit methodologically from each other in developing better methods for assessing the futures.

which are more capable of taken into consideration the longer time frames than have been common in risk analysis tradition before.

Time horizon 0 5 years 5 50 years Phases Scope definition, risk identification, risk estimation (probability, consequences), risk evaluation The pre foresight phase

an idea before its time is apt to result in derision and dismissal 3. T. J. Gordon et al./

Second, nonlinear models can be built to simulate real life systems that operate in a stable mode most of the time.

but there are about 100 times more salesmen than librarians. So given only the sparse amount of information in this example, salesman would have been a better bet.

In conclusion, an indicator study of the technology barometer comprises 12 sub-indicators providing an index-type key value indicating the state of technology at a given time.

allowing the identification of changes occurred in the course of time both in indicator study as well as in survey study.

Development of comprehensive indicators is time-consuming requiring a fair amount of resources as well as a widespread contact network within the society.

These topics should still be in the research or development phase during this time. Topics that will already be in the implementation phase during the next years,

or are transferred already to innovations in 10 years'time were excluded from the lists of topics to be considered.

Topics, in which BMBF or German research institutions were already very active at that point in time were labelled as‘golden

their importance and their time frame (see below. Parallel to this, the corresponding innovation systems were being analysed

In the plenum session, a guided fictive time travel served as a mind opener. The workshops themselves addressed the 14 thematic fields themselves

already at this point in time, five new thematic fields were derived from the first workshop results and further search

and Infrastructures for Human Living spaces) Productionconsumption 2. 0 Simulation and modelling Time research In order to assess the relevance of all the topics (fields

In order to save time, no Delphi survey like in some of the previous German foresight activities was planned 16,17.

The second question was about the time: when do you expect the highest research intensity (in 1 to 5 years, in 6 to 10 years, in 11 to 15 years or in 16 to 20 years.

On the basis of the survey, topics that will no longer be on the research agenda in 10 years'time,

new drivers like lifestyles or developments in society change the time and space patterns of living and working.

Time research: time is the limiting factor in different developments. Therefore, research on time efficiency, parallel structures, a new kind of precise and ultra-short time measuring as well as 4 D precision (for imaging etc.

are some examples. But also the biological rhythms of the human beings (chronobiology) and new knowledge for different applications will be future topics.

When this article is written, most of the results are published not, therefore only the spectrum of the broader fields can be mentioned. 3. 5. Integration

and topics with a time horizon of 10 to 15 years and longer be rapidly

or companies in other countries dealing with crosscutting issues and future topics with a time horizon of 10 to 15 years and beyond?

The Delphi surveys 16 were known mainly by expert communities who participated because at that point in time foresight was relatively new for German communities and for the ministry itself.

even if there is still enough time to prepare the implementation. This is regarded as one of the add-ons from foresight processes:

to gain time for the preparation of new research. There is already interest from BMBF departments to get involved into the process.

Until now, all German foresight processes ran into election times 19 which made it difficult to continue with the implementation preparations as intended.

in order to make use of the strategic intelligence of the innovation system 24,27, 32 but this time very cautiously and step by step.

But this time, even if the large process is acknowledged not after the next general elections in 2009, there is already an impact on some of the ministerial departments.

budget-or policy-cycle related perspective frequently prevails in this phase, alongside serious time and resource constraints and the need to fix working compromises between conflicting societal interests.

since impacts might take a long time to become evident or are difficult to single out from the complexity of influence factors. 3. 2. Impacts of scenario planning The few studies that attempt to evaluate the effectiveness of scenarios find them useful 29,30.

This process requires a longer time perspective. Drawing from the private sector literature, using scenarios to address the challenges facing firms can easily fail for another reason:

requires more time and a greater willingness and patience to engage in creative discussions. These conditions are met oftentimes not in the sphere of policy-making,

triggering a stronger use of deductive approaches that require less time, seem more logical and easier to communicate.

and failed to provide knowledge at the time it was needed. Oftentimes, external experts are commissioned by governments and public administration to produce forward-looking analysis,

In addition, policy-makers and strategists often have not only different time horizons than scenario planners, but also very different attention foci.

inductive approaches are considered also often to be too time-consuming and ambiguous in their outcomes, highlighting the need for further methodological improvements.

The underlying philosophy is of‘satisficing'as often the time scale for thework involved precludes any other approach.

It was a time of immense confidence in science and technology, and their applications to improve wealth creation

It is known that individuals move around the hierarchy with the passage of time and according to economic and other circumstances.

Consequently, the circumstances prevailing at the time of a Foresight study can influence the outcome in ways that remain unknown. 2. Seeking opinions from a mixture of people from so many different levels in the typology will introduce new issues to be resolved to retain credibility between all the participants.

+a mosaic of arenas for innovation and selection At the time of the Constructive TA project, a method of combining ideas of innovation journeys amidst evolving landscapes (coevollutio of innovation/selection processes

At the time of the workshop (December 2007) the situation in and around nanotechnology involved mostly the discussion of Environment, Health and Safety aspects (EHS/HES) and other nanotoxicity related discussions,

Thus, at the time, there was something at stake for these actors and a willingness to participate in discussions

I position (in the IC+framework) the actors that were active at the time of the workshop

& Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 3. 2. The scope of the workshop and the nano context at the time From the situation outlined in Section 3. 1,

This shows the status of the IC+game board at the time of the workshop and was the starting point for the development of realistically complex scenarios.

Over time, the Nanodiablog project actually fulfils the promise made by its initiators (much to their surprise) as creating an informed general public,

For reasons of space only one example (scenario 3) is given in full in Section 5. The example helps to illustrate elements such as paths and endogenous futures. 4. 1. The three scenarios At the time of the workshop

Code initiators attempt annual monitoring through direct contact to signatories, by asking them to volunteer time to report.

This was the case at the time of writing w. r. t. the UK voluntary initiative.

by asking them to volunteer time to report. Comparative and systematic methods do not exist.

through methodology and application development and is about to be submitted at the time of publication of this article.

and the analysis portrayed in this paper is instructive for the planning of large-scale foresight exercises that need to serve high-level policy objectives subject to demanding time constraints and expectations.

There is no clearly defined time horizon in either case. The Technical research Council plan mentions that its strategy is about prioritising areas of science with special importance for society during the next 10 20 years.

-oriented Technology-oriented and methods Time horizon 10 20 years 2008 2012 and 2030 Method, systematics and tools Invited vision papers Council discussions Council members'own

and few participaant will have the time (or patience) to devote to this. Furthermore, many participants will probably lack the requisite knowledge to make such detailed assessments.

Among these challenges are need the to keep within time and budget; to open up the process to genuinely new perspectives;

Instead, a better STI policy strategy is to foster an innovation system that is sufficiently flexible to support such areas at their time of emergence. 5. 3. Deliberative processes Foresight exercises are characterised by deliberation between various stakeholders, often in workshhop and working groups.

this unrealistic time scheduling had major consequences for the scale and quality of deliberative processes.

The consultants employed to coordinate the exercise in Phase 1 did a sterling job in such a limited time to collect baseline data

but with so little time to work with, they decided to rely upon a single deliberative forum the Exploratory Workshop (EWS) near the end of the process to validate the domain rankings derived from analysis of the online survey. 12 This was always going to be problematic as it left too much to be achieved in a single one-day

it takes time for people to develop a rapport and for mutual trust to grow between participants.

Instead, the focus was solely upon the identification of priorities in as quick a time as possible.

and more time spent on data collection and analysis. Similar shortcomings have also been noted by Meyer 2008 who comments that Luxembourg's‘current science policy appears to be almost too ambitious,..

Again, further thematic group meetings might have reduced this behaviour over time. Many participants also had difficulty in engaging in a visioning dialogue.

they also often appear a long time after the exercise has been completed and are therefore difficult to measure and to attribute to foresight;

and shifts towards new areas understandably take time. Besides the identified priorities, the exercise in itself has produced associated process benefits for example,

In the context of the FNR Foresight, it is clear that more time should have been devoted to setting its objectives and agenda.

While this would seem to be given sensible particularly the limited time available asking participants to rank such a list without giving them the time to debate

and assessed for different time horizons. The reasons for success in terms of shortteer policy impacts will be highlighted

Although the foresight process was targeting the time horizon 2015 (and in some instances even beyond),

and the restrictions on the time horizon implied Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 966 K. M. Weber et al. that some longer-term issues tended to be excluded

For the first time, a communication process was implemented that brought research and innovation policy to the forefront of policy attention and that brought together representatives from most relevant policy areas.

and thus policy-relevant, time horizon implied that severra important longer-term issues, likely to be of a controversial nature,

This means that this time the focus is on areas of action which address the well-being of the citizens

Once we have discussed financial conditions, time and the political premises for such processes, it is difficult to imagine deeper analyses of possible visions.

The time to conduct certain technology analyses can be reduced from months to minutes by taking advantage of four factors enabling QTIP Quick Technology intelligence Processes:

this analysis was done not in the target time of b1 dayq. Instead it derives from analytical work that has been ongoing for 2 years as illustrative material for a book 1. But,

We know of a major corporation that reduced its time to provide a key set of competitive technological intelligence (CTI) analyses from 3 months to 3 days.

in the belief that our analysis may be instructive for the planning of large-scale foresight exercises that need to serve high-level policy objectives subject to demanding time constraints and expectations.

the Finnish innovation Fund, launched a So-called future Forum already at the time when Finnsight was running.

As a result, these latter panels spent more time on demarcattin their boundaries and clarifying their objectives;

more time may be required to lay the grounds for the generation of such perspectives. In hindsight, the development of novel methodological approaches in Finnsight most notably the definition of dedicated units of analysis (driving forces, focus areas of competences) and the extensive deployment of internet-based tools for engaging the panel

This was reflected in the futures 43 (2011) 229 231 2 This tension has been mirrored at the time of writing by an attempt by parts of the European commission to put into wider usage the collective term they are using for internal managerial purposes

The experience of FTA suggests that then new term will only have currency in the space and time in

However, the central output this time was edited an book. In preparing the conference the scientific committee had concluded that a better focus could be achieved through the production by its members of‘‘anchor papers''.

and implications of FTA for policy and decision making''but this time constructed its themes and anchor papers differently.

(MON 810) has illustrated recently one more time. 10 Secondly, plant genomics is based a science discipline where industrial companies play a major part,

because neurons have a relatively long bresetq time of 5 ms. But with an average of 1000 connections between each neuron and its neighbors,

Over time, participants learn that change rather than stability is the coin of the commercial realm

but political or philosophical arguments simply waste the group's time. Lively exchanges of opinion are not uncommon.

and bspeculativeq simply as a means of providing a perspective on a time frame for projected impacts.

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