the resources in question being those of finance, time, infrastructure etc. In science and technology policy an OECD report identified three types of priorities 8:
While the direct use of foresight was documented not at the time in that example it is interesting to note that one of the most successful has evolved now into an ERA NET‘‘Wood Wisdom''dealing with the integration of forestry and wood material science and engineering.
and have more accurate forecasts on the time-horizons of S&t developments. 2. 2. Chosen future perspectives:
and threats and consequently to put in place preparedness mechanisms to act on time. Anticipation of intelligence (or knowledge) is a contribution to improve the knowledge base for the designing of policies.
It applies trend analysis with a time-horizon of 30 years. Autonomous Expert group work.
Future Impact of ICTS on Environmental Sustainabilityh 22 Informative Explore how ICTS will influence future environmental sustainability (time horizon:
and transmission time-space compression, post-Fordism, flexible accumulation, and the advance of finance capital, which is characterized by networking, globalization,
and has completed 8 times technology foresight activities since 1970.6 FTA projects in China in broad sense can be traced to‘‘The 12 Years Science Development Planning''made in 1956,
and to assess (quantitatively) the ways in which ICTS would influence future environmental sustainability (time horizon:
The exploration of alternative forms of participation for decision-makers and other participants with serious time constrains can
when invoking conventional economic models for short-term analysis and forecasting, at least in less turbulent times.
identifying turning points and indicators of change, developing narratives of future histories and accounts of affairs at a future point in time in a way enabling comparison across break out groups, and so on.
The use of new media at present usually means less time allocated to purely social interaction
and even enhancing time and opportunity for such encounters. There are probably lessons to be drawn from online gaming and other virtual communities in this respect.
(and time) to examine the underpinning assumptions of models (not to mention intellectual familiarity with the conceptual underpinnings of social and economic models).
but this was some time after the UK's Royal Society embarked, in 1981, on a series of conferences on the assessment and perception of risk.
The history of governance is concerned mostly with how the public's perception of technological innovation has grown over time.
It has become more tenuous over time despite strenuous efforts to the contrary that include Adam smith's theses,
Doing these things requires a new approach to both CSR and philanthropy than the one prevalent nowadays.
It does so by indicating that the time has come for the FTA COMMUNITY to go beyond the current major focus of identifying
California Management Review 2 (1960) 70 76.34 B. Gates, Making Capitalism More Creative, Time Inc.,2008 July 31.
In a very short time, slide rules and mechanical calculators disappeared and, in some cases, the companies that made these products disappeared
Discontinuities are those situations impacts where over time and extending beyond single events, change is rapid
were hard to estimate at the time, but can now clearly be seen as being indicative of things to come.
3. Estimated time horizon: 2008 2015; 2016 2025; beyond 2025.3.1.2. Data set Total surveys submitted:
Analysis of assessed impact, likelihood, controversy, time horizon patterns; Comparison of FTA COMMUNITY insights-domains content with others sources of Foresight trends, drivers, etc.
or government respondents see the prospective developments in longer or shorter time horizons than the business respondents?
Results can serve as baseline for a more quantitative-reactive survey next year likely generating a higher return rate requiring less time to formulate original ideas. 3. 2. Analysis of the results 3. 2. 1. Descriptive statistics
Likelihood and time horizon assessment. The majority of the trends were considered to be medium to high probability of occurrence.
The time of occurrence for most of the trends was considered to be from 2016 to 2025.
Assessed together with the time horizon, the survey respondents generally expect that the highest controversies are likely to emerge from 2016 to 2025.3.2.2.3.
%Likelihood and time horizon assessment. Almost all respondents from all regions considered that there is a medium to high level of occurrence of the trends identified. 75%of the North american respondents considered that the likelihood of occurrence was high,
More than half of the respondents from North america and the EU countries suggested a medium time horizon (between 2016 and 2025) for the occurrence of the trends identified.
Likelihood and time horizon assessment. Similarly no significant differences were encountered between the different affiliation category groups.
whereas the majority of the respondents from business envisaged shorter time horizon for the emergence of trends (between 2008 and 2015.
The responses from the respondents from governments were balanced more between long, medium and short time horizons.
Time horizon. All respondents from less than 1 year experience to more than 15 years considered that the majority of the drivers will occur between 2016 and 2025.3.2.3.2.
Likelihood and time horizon assessment. The respondents from North america and the EU countries suggested similar assessments for the likelihood of occurrence of the drivers identified.
whereas the majority of the respondents from the EU Candidate countries assessed the time horizon for the occurrence of drivers after 2025.3.2.3.3.
Likelihood and time horizon assessment. The majority of respondents from Academia and NGOS expected a medium level of likelihood of occurrence for the drivers identified.
if any of these eventually emerge. 3. 2. 4. 1. Further assessment of wild cards/shocks by time horizon,
Experience time horizon. As the years of experience increased, the time horizon for the occurrence of wild cards tended to remain between 2016 and 2025.
Respondents with no experience expected that the wild cards would occur after 2025, whereas the respondents with maximum 3 years of experience had a shorter time horizon (2008 2015).
Affiliation time horizon. Regarding the affiliation of participants, the time of occurrence for wild cards indicates parallelism between the respondents from Academia, Business and Other affiliations,
who have a medium term time horizon. While the time horizon for students and NGO respondents is longer,
it is the opposite for the participants from the Government, where the majority (40%)has a shorter time horizon for the occurrence of wild cards.
Country of residence time horizon. Respondents from the EU Candidate countries have a longer time horizon,
compared to the respondents from the rest of Europe. The respondents from North america have balanced a more distribution of time horizons among short
medium and long terms. Table 4 Examples of wild cards/shocks. Examples of wild cards shocks by category A b c Society & Culture 42 Rise of dogma, e g. creativism/creationism, social resistance to technological change New diseases from pharmaceutical and space
research Intolerance of science to renew moral outrage over genetic modification, trans-humanist research, etc.
Strong classes between cultures, intensification of conflicts between cultural classes Population boom & high competition in job markets Decline of knowledge grounded in local society and history because of less direct human interaction
Blockage of free trade due to a major pandemic Science & Tech. 9 Big disasters in science creation of out-of-control species, viruses, robots Disruption of technological systems Artificial intelligence passes human capacity Shocking scientific discovery challenges all hitherto received ideas, e g.,
Likelihood and time horizon assessment. The likelihood of occurrence for about 50%of the discontinuities identified was considered to be medium.
Different from the other groups, respondents with 5 15 years experience considered that more than 50%of the discontinuities will occur with the realisation time between 2016 and 2025.
Likelihood and time horizon assessment. Strong disagreements were observed regarding the likelihood of occurrence of the drivers identified.
Likelihood and time horizon assessment. Regarding the likelihood of occurrence of discontinuities, the responses from Academia,
The figures changed slightly in the assessment of time horizons. This time Academia and Business suggested that most of the discontinuities would emerge from 2016 to 2025
whereas students and Governmental respondents expected a longer time horizon (beyond 2025. 3. 2. 6. Weak signals The radar diagram below (Fig. 12) shows the orientations of the 171 weak signals identified by the respondents of the Big Picture Survey.
The following observations were made after the analysis of the Weak signals:(TD$FIG Fig. 12. Orientations of weak signals.
of weak signals by time horizon, affiliation and country of residence. Experience time horizon. The respondents with a Foresight experience longer than 1 year expect most the majority of the weak signals to emerge in the medium term future (2016 2025),
whereas the inexperienced respondents have a longer time horizon (beyond 2025). This is likely due to the familiarity that older
and more experienced contributors have with how fast changes can really appear from insight to application.
Affiliation time horizon. The majority of the Business respondents have a longer term time horizon (beyond 2025) compared to the respondents from Academia
and Governments who consider that most of the weak signals will occur in the mid-term (2016 2025).
Country of residence time horizon. Regardless the country of residence most of the respondents have medium term time horizon, with a higher emphasis from the EU Associate countries.
Table 6 Examples of weak signals. Examples of weak signals by category A b c Society & Culture 61 Concept of rational behaviour in modernity losing value
one that could provoke a more consistent and comprehensive response over time. The current paper aims to establish a methodological base.
even though time did not permit a full analysis of the data. Further analysis will include:(
1) trends and drivers by experience, country of residence and affiliation and also by responses on impact, likelihood, controversy and horizon time;(
Hence, some FTA outputs may enter the reservoir of knowledge where it may be drawn on at some time in the future.
'2 but there is also value in selecting topics that are likely to arouse strong interest. 3 The challenge for high impact FTA is to select issues that have both a long time horizon,
Changes to these deeply embedded standards and practices will require both time and continuing commitment.
but that the longer the reviewed time horizon gets, the more uncertain the results become.
Two crucial issues in all TPMS have been the assumption of stability in model coefficients over time
and the assumption that variables excluded from the model will not be instrumental in modifying travel behaviour over time.
For example, they criticised that the assumed time for boarding and de-boarding will not be sufficient during rush periods.
Although this timeframe constitutes a short to medium time perspective, the action plans aims at building a long-term vision,
and their changes over the course of time. For transparent decision making procedures it is crucial to make preferences
and will change over time (and will never‘‘settle down'')a peak may become worthless compared to others
1 Minimise time to find customer 2 Go where customer wants 1 Avoid crowding neighbours 2 Steer towards the average heading of neighbours 3 Move toward the average position of neighbours...
The lesson is often that the environment/time/space/area in which one works and lives in determines how one thinks (the mental model or frame),
Rami'rez, R. and Van der Heijden, K. Eds)( 2008), Business Planning for Turbulent Times: New methods for Applying Scenarios, Earthscan, London.
3/4. Ringland, G. 2010),‘Frameworks for coping with post-normal times: a response to Ziauddin Sardar'',Futures, Vol. 42 No. 6, pp. 633-9. Schwartz, P. 1991), The Art of the Long View:
what is considered to be highly significant to the nation's future at the time. Topics of some previous reports have included issues such as regional development and the effects of ageing of population.
and energy strategy for Finland 1. The time horizon in the climate and energy strategy was 2020,
I Progress of the scenario process Phase Time Method Goal Material gathering and final design of the study September 2008 Literary review,
the reliability and information value of calculations made using the kind of information that was available at the time of the task,
or public officials to have the time to learn and master all aspects of the decisions they make.
but it has to be noted that the longer the reviewed time horizon gets, the more uncertain the results become.
because the time allocated for such an all-embracing work was very tight. The scenario team had collected a very impressive and insightful group of people to act as expert panellists for the Delphi and the scenario process to balance out the time constraints.
It is interesting to note that the results produced in the FFRC's process were altered slightly as they were presented in the final publication by the Prime minister's Office.
Presumably the original result was politically too difficult an issue to consider at the time.
Regardless the choice of the methods, ample time to carry out the given foresight process so that it can best serve the needs of the client,
Time and Space for Sustainable development, Springer, Dordrecht. IPCC (2007), IPCC AR4 WGIII, Climate change 2007: Mitigation of Climate change, WGIII Contribution to the IPCC AR4, Cambridge university Press, Cambridge and New york, NY, chapter 13, Box 13.7, p. 776, available at:
2000 2001 2002 Fig. 1. Number of times dnanotubet is mentioned in article titles (Picarta. 3 The fact that we use the emergence of this specialised journal for this paper is the fact that nanotubes is one of the major topics in this journal.
longer lived and at least 10 times more energy efficient 23. Since the publication of Rueckes et al. 16, where they introduce the architecture of nonvolatile memory based on nanotubes,
this being the promise of huge computer memories (more than a thousand times greater in capacity than
In this context, urban planners had a hard time undertaking forecasts, since structural changes were making traditional paradigms obsolete.
Law tends to adapt to the passage of time through a gradual process, and hesitates to anticipate forthcoming developments.
limited to a short time span and resistant to prospective thinking and alternative planning. Despite the fact that scenarios have already been used in legal-oriented studies,
Rather, they surface particular times and locations predicted to be associated with an increased likelihood for crime.
‘‘the tendency to be captive to the'spirit of times 'and to assume that tomorrow's problems
3. These various tools and strategies differ according to the range of technology targeted, the time horizon span, their goals and outcomes, etc.
which might require the attention of legislators at some later point in time''.''Regarding technology assessment, it is interesting to note that it‘‘originally emerged with the aim of contributing to the balance of power between the legislative and executive branches of government,
For a detailed discussion of the different types of roadmaps, their scopes, objectives, methodologies and time-scales see e g.
qualified estimates about technological hurdles and the degree of difficulty to overcome them and related time horizons,
and use some ideas from cultural historical theory to argue that modelling the directionality of the innovative élan requires analysis of progress at several time scales.
In contrast to the mechanical time of physical sciences, the Bergsonian‘durée'of living processes therefore has direction and irreversibility.
and it needs to be described as a complex process that transpires in several different time scales in parallel (Tuomi 1999,203).
Yet, the movement towards future occurs in a context that can often be taken to be static in relation to the time scale of present action.
This is another reason for why we need to split the élan into multiple parallel processes that occur in different time scales.
The crucial point for Rosen is that time works differently in natural and formal systems.
In natural systems, time separates events into two classes: those that are simultaneous with each other
or logical relations that remain true independent of time, and time becomes a parameter that can be used to label system states.
In practice, this means that if the formal model is good enough a representation of the natural system,
we can use the formal system to find out the state of the natural system in some future point of time.
create hypotheses about the unobservable causal relationships, fast forward the formal model to a future point of time,
'On the right-hand side, time is a parameter that can be used to label system states
On the left-hand side, time is the creator of irreversibility and novelty. In other words, the left-hand side is the generator of innovations,
The BWR was probably the best known at the time and stability in a known earthquake zone would have been very much in mind.
Similarly, any business has a certain momentum that will ensure its continuity for an uncertain time into the future in the absence of some new
The outcome is then a version of the long-time notion of the future as a present appreciation of current knowledge projected to some future horizon.
Scenario style photographs portrayed the UK at two time slots, 1985 and 1995. Interviews are used so often to obtain opinion that the procedure is regarded as mundane,
or were likely to become able to do so at some time in the future. Seeking subjective opinion about a situation and its future from these three types of expert had to be tailored carefully to each
the assessing ability test was repeated this time using questions drawn from the interviewees'field of expertise.
and that which cannot be at the time Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 766 D. Loveridge
Maybe it failed this time, but the next time it might succeed (Hellsten 2002). In some cases, such as nuclear fusion, this mechanism has secured costly research during decades (e g. on the Joint European Torus and International Thermonuuclea Experimental Reactor),
while proper results are lacking. Other studies stress that while expectations are needed to start a project or a programme,
and to provide empirical evidence of its contribution to sustain the advantage of the firm over time.
The time frame is usually 10 15 years for Global Scenarios, but much shorter for sector and business scenarios.
A specific initiative the‘Probes Program'has been established recently as a long-run (10-year time horizon) research project intended to present‘provocations'about new lifestyle patterns,
Foresight activities usually cover a 10-year time horizon, while emerging trend investigations are scheduled yearly to fit in with the annual strategy calendar.
In the case of the consumer products and ICT businesses, the time horizon is 5 years.
for a limited time horizon, will be maintained through interdependence between itself and a swarm of suppliers and customers.
Time for the EU to meet global challenges. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European union. http://ftp. jrc. es/EURDOC/JRC55981. pdf (accessed July 2012.
Furthermore it is time to define a vision for sustainable development to be pursued in alignment with the seven dimensions of sustainability,
Time was built into the plan to iterate the visualizations if large differences were found between them and the leaders'mental models of their areas.
or restricting the data displayed to a certain time span and sliding through sequences of years with a slider.
but were thought to be increasing with time. Potential three-way overlaps were considered not. The Sandia-specific IA map, generated using the process described above,
Using the Vxinsight time-sliding capability we investigated trends in the IA overlaps, some examples
However, such a map would take much more data and time to construct. Fig. 6 shows that significant areas of the graph, especially at the top and right, are covered not at all by any of the Sandia IAS.
and technologies in a certain time frame. The fifth way is to identify single targets in the roadmap structure.
Managing the complex trade-offs between the properties of the strategic landscape and the time frame being considered.
Tech Mining the various publication and patent abstract records can track the emergence of key terms over time to spotlight new (appearing only in the most recent time period) and hot subtechnoologie (i e. those appearing
although the data in 2009 and 2010 were collected not completely by Thomson Reuters at the time of the downloading.
and positioned in a time frame; and obstacles and opportunities that will facilitate or inhibit progress along a particular pathway can be located.
time horizons for innovation, and scope of study all reinforce the need to adapt these 10 steps to one's priorities.
Measuring and mapping six research fields over time. Scientometrics 81, no. 3: 719 45. Porter, A l.,J. Youtie, P. Shapira,
2007) and reduced the burdens of cost and time (Gordon and Pease, 2006. Combining methods has been recognized as a precondition of successful foresight
Questionnaires from the viewpoint of a time span of 30 years until 2040 were carried out twice,
but rather ensures that fact-finding does not take up any of the valuable time (maximum of one
In a more tangible sense, the European union Sustainable development Strategy (2006) although not couched at the time in precisely the same language of PAGE 30 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013‘‘grand challenges''set out a similar framework for addressing the critical
European research must focus on the Grand challenges of our time moving beyond current rigid thematic approaches. This calls for a new deal among European institutions and Member States, in which European and national instruments are aligned well and co-operation builds transparency and trust.
anticipation of likelihood and impact Participants in the roundtable discussions were given time individually to appraise the drivers
and reputation as‘‘a player''and good partner in global politics and trade in uncertain times?
and innovation communities to consider the impacts of changes in conditions, resources and other factors over different time horizons.
Topic Importance indexa Expected time of developing S&t solution Possible results (percentage of experts; two top scores) Technology area 1 Technologies for accelerated and efficient recovery of damaged lands, landscapes and biodiversity 97.6 2019 Contributing to dealing with social problems (76.3
and Technology policy Research institute (STEPI) Technology foresight Research team, National research Center for Science and Technology for Development Time horizon 2035 2030 2020 Original category Energy and resources Energy
In addition, the content of Delphi topics depends on the time horizon of the foresight activities. For example, the foresight activity of Japan has up to a 30-year time horizon,
and hence the technology trends provided by the scanned Delphi survey will provide a long-term view while the result from patent analysis for CTI or for forecasting provide a short-term view.
and implications Since the time horizons surveyed in the three scanned foresight report are different, the Delphi topics need to be screened again based on their realization time for cross-country comparison.
The time horizons surveyed for Delphi topics in Japan are‘‘time of technological realization''and‘‘time of social application''.
''The time horizons surveyed for Delphi topics in South korea are‘‘time of international realization''and‘‘time for domestic realization''.
''The time horizon is not specific in the Chinese Delphi topics but the forecasting time horizon for the whole foresight activity was set at up to the year 2020, by
which technology that can be realized before the year 2020 is preselected. Therefore, Delphi topics with a realization time before the year 2020,
which is‘‘time of technological realization before 2020''for Japan, ‘‘time of international realization before 2020''for South korea and all Delphi topics from China, are used as the main target for analysis and for comparison.
Twenty-six Delphi topics in Japan which counts for 74.3 percent of the total Delphi topics,
were regarded as having realization before the year 2020. The remaining six and three Delphi topics are regarded as having realization between the years 2021 and 2030 and after the year 2031, respectively.
In South korea's case, most of the Delphi topics were regarded by experts as having realization before the year 2020;
Table V summarizes the realization time distribution of Delphi topics in Japan, South korea and China. 3. 1 Mapping technology interactions in Delphi topics 3. 1. 1 Summary result of the mapping in three countries.
and the possible Table V Realization time distribution of Delphi topic in Japan, South korea and China Before 2020 2021-2030 After 2031 Time horizon Topics Ratio (percent
its geographical scope, time horizon, themes, methods, participants, budget, and other resources, target audience, communication strategy, etc.
and what cannot be at the time 2, p. 765. The information, knowledge and interpretation and resultant subjective opinion of FTA participants are decisive when dealing with grand challenges 3. Thus,
the time horizon to be considered; the desire of their sponsors/clients; the number, experience, analytical and methodological skills and value system of their participants;
time and other resources available for FTA, etc. In other words, it would be a mistake to search for a fixed set of methods in the sense of one size fits all (or best practice.
when it is not too costly in terms of time, human resources and funds required to conduct an FTA project.
The FTA TOOLS used to develop governance frameworks for nanotechnology in these two countries differ along time.
Time for the EU to Meet Global Challenges, EUR 24364 EN, Publications Office of the European union, Luxembourg, 2010.
and differences in cultural backgrounds requires a longer time horizon and below we suggest some of the steps that could be taken in such direction. 5. 2. 1. Lack of identified good practices In light of the growing volume and variety of FTA practices,
time horizon15) and provide both methodological and evaluation guidelines. The experience of the European foresight Platform (www. foresight-platform. eu) could provide some relevant inputs towards this endeavour.
and thus tailoring foresight phases to different foresight functions. 15 Typically, quantitative models present higher credibility for shorter time horizons,
a research paradigm whose time has come, Educ. Res. 33 (7)( 2004) 14 26.61 A. Tashakkori, C. Teddlie, Mixed Methodology, Combining Qualitative and Quantitative approaches, Applied Social research Methods Series, 46, Sage
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