The dominant approach to analysing TLC uses the S-curve to observe patent applications over time.
or so basic techniques, dating from that time at least, is trend analysis. This includes both historical time series analyses
In the maturity stage, some pacing technologies turn into key technologies, are integrated into products or processes, and maintain their high competitive impact.
either over time or in terms of cumulative R&d expenditures. But using one indicator only to present technological performance would be problematic.
and Popular Press abstracts Trends over time in number of items Technological needs noted Types of topics receiving attention Spin-off technologies linked Reinhard Haupt, Martin Kloyer
Therefore, the fabrication technology is one of the pacing technologies of NBS. In this stage, a lot of challenging problems must be overcome, such as enhancement of gene array and protein array,
it is a good time to invest in NBS to pursue potentialmarkets. 4. Conclusions How might technology life cycle analysis based on patents contribute to FTA?
This means that there are pacing technologies with high competitive impact that have not yet been integrated into new products or processes.
That is, how do technological units (whatever they may be) carry their information forward through time? 3 Are technological innovations indeed teleological or Lamarckian in nature or not?
and their dynamics (behavior over time) is defined via the change of their organization (or dstatet) as described by the system's differential equations.
And policies that are optimal for dynamically complex issues at a particular point in time often fail at other moments in time.
Hence, in case of complex issues under uncertainty, there is a strong need for policies that are designed to adapt over time to new circumstances and surprises,
their development over time is dynamically complex, and many aspects related to these systems and their future developments are deeply uncertain.
with the aim of promoting continual learning and adaptation in response to experience over time 26.
and time-urgent and postpone other actions to a later stage. In order to realize this, it is suggested that a monitoring system
and construction times are open to surprises affecting the actual completion time. Other important uncertainties are related to learning effects on costs and technological performance.
The figure shows the behavior over time for the outcome indicator‘fraction of new technologies of total energy generation'as well as the Gaussian Kernel Density Estimates (KDES) 56 of the end states.
which means that over the 100 year simulation time, the fraction of new technologies remains below 60%for about half of the runs.
and a short planning and construction time for Technology 1 also hinder the transition toward sustainability,
Hence, the costs of Technologies 2, 3 and 4 are monitored over time and when their costs are close enough to the cost of the dominant technology,
but lose their effect after 2020 due to the time-restricted nature of the hedging action.
and assists in developing a plan that can adapt over time to how uncertainties unfold.
and analyzing their resulting nonlinear behaviors over time in order to develop and test structural policies 24, 25.
Under conditions of deep uncertainty, long time horizons, and high dynamic complexity, a more exploratory use of models is called for 26.
Mineral and metal scarcity is characterized by long time horizons diverging beliefs and ideas about system functioning,
Typically plus and minus 50%of the default value Orders of time delays There are various time delays, such as building of new recycling capacity and mines.
This figure shows more examples of cyclical behavior and it appears that the cycles can become worse over time.
One way of analyzing the results is to identify runs that share the same dynamic behavior over time.
The behavior over time can be understood as being a concatenation of atomic behavior patterns 30.
minimizing the time required to realize the change. To address the potential overshoot of negative external affects
which the option evolves during the time horizon of the simulation. 3. 3. 3. Analysis of results Fig. 5 shows a performance envelope for five outcome indicators.
Due to the socially dynamic characteristic of innovation 37, new socio-technical (sub systems will emerge over time 22.
One of the often-overlooked elements in the innovation process that hinders smooth communication and interaction within emergent networks is time 44.
time has many meanings beyond‘clock time'.'Adam argues that the meaning of time is constructed socially
and that such meaning is performative. Futurists are used of course to deal with short, medium and long-term perspectives,
but it has been shown that differences in the construction of time play a significant role in the construction of meaning about the future (e g. of nanotechnologies 44).
The generic methodological requirement from this perspective is an explicit account of the construction of time within the context of the study at hand.
For instance, time is considered to be historically and culturally specific. Different historical periods, different cultures, and different stages of the lifecycle all display different relationships to time.
This means that situations are rooted in a particular moment and place and seen through the perspective of a certain set of lenses 45.3.3.
but generally comprises a time-based chart together with a number of layers, which provides a means to link technology and other resources to future products,
By mapping time we become clearer on where we have come from and where we are going.
The future plays the role of the time needed to introduce the necessary changes to comply with the envisaged principles.
Time for the EU to Meet Global Challenges, EUR 24364 EN, Publications Office of the European union, Luxembourg, 2010.
42 (2010) 723 732.44 C. Selin, Time matters: temporal harmony and dissonance in nanotechnology networks, Time Soc. 15 (2006) 121 139.45 M. Aaltonen, Multi-ontology, sense-making and the emergence of the future, Futures 41 (2009
) 279 283.46 A. Marchais-Roubelat, F. Roubelat, Futures beyond disruptions, Futures 43 (2011) 130 133.47 S. A. van't Klooster, M. B. A. van Asselt, Accommodating or compromising change?
How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change, Pearson, Prentice hall, New york, 2006.69 U. Beck, Ecological Politics in an Age of Risk, Polity Press, Cambridge, 1995.70 L. M. Ricard, K
This image seemed to foster the idea of time consuming and slow participative processes. This interpretation did not correspondwith the intention of the project team and the comprehensive description of the vision.
which is needed to envisage structural transformation challenging today's paradigms. 4. Conclusions As INFU was being finalised at the time of writing it is too early to assess the usefulness or even the impact of its findings in a reliable manner.
A Practitioner's Guide to Developing and Using Scenarios to Direct Strategy in Today's Uncertain Times, Thomson Southwestern, Mason, Ohio, 2006.33 J. Buur, B. Matthews, Participatory innovation, Int
and continuity even if it were perceived not so at the time. In the current less stable economic, political and social environment it is possible to apply such a lens to the preceding two or three decades.
or at a single point in time and hence variety of approach remains beneficial Alignment is a more realistic objective.
This Special issue, like many compendia arising out of a professional conference, offers a sample of the state of the art at a particular point in time.
''The time it has taken to edit and finalize this Special issue reflects the difficulty of this kind of ex-post process and the far-flung and changing circumstances of its authors and editors.
But as time went on the consistent presence of heterogeneous perspectives and the difficulty of making sense of this continued diversity of the FTA voices made another case.
Certainly, over time the proportion of papers and discussions preoccupied with forecasting and deterministic roadmapping approaches to the future gave way to a growing awareness and acceptance of other methods,
types of planning, meaning of time, and tolerance for deviant ideas. The first implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to a society's view on planning in general.
The second implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to the meaning of time
According to Hofstede, the uncertainty avoidance dimension impacts the question of‘‘how a society reacts on the fact that time only runs one way
In countries such as France and Japan with a high uncertainty avoidance indexes, time and the future are considered to be something that should be mastered and exploited.
time is merely a framework for orientation rather than something to be mastered. Adaption to upcoming changes might be considered more important in these countries.
including all of its functions, with a time horizon of at least 10 years. At the local level, a document analysis was combined with interviews with policymakers.
Apparently, when the time to make a decision comes closer, other issues and (political) interests start playing a role as well.
On the one hand, the long lead time of strategy processes makes the use of foresight methods necessary. On the other hand, this leads to a certain level of disappointment, due to a lack of short-term implications.
which was not how they were applied in most case studies (with the exception of The hague), because of a lack of time or expertise.
Most local policy-makers indicated that the foresight process took more time than they initially expected. This was due, in part, to the longer duration of the development phase,
particularly the time needed to generate support and commitment among policy-makers (and politicians). Consequently, there was less time to learn from the foresight study in a strategic 1 Particular issues arise in the case of quantitative forecasting models,
which are perceived often as black boxes by policy-makers. In these cases, contradictory information may indeed emerge as a consequence of different assumptions across models.
which takes time and resources. Third, informal networks are developed usually by those in the front line or carrying out the daily work,
and which reduce the time between engaging with end users and delivering a solution. Sustainable manufacturing possible due to cultural change of individuals and corporations supported by the enforcement of rules
time for the EU to meet global challenges, Publications Office of the European union, Luxembourg, 2010.2 L. Y. Tang, Q. Shen, Factors affecting effectiveness and efficiency of analysing stakeholders
which were not possible at the time of the study (the questions can be found in the appendix).
and the last column‘implemented 5y'indicates the number of respondents that thinks this idea will be implemented effectively in five years'time.
but the majority of the experts see them implemented within five years'time anyway. The open source, surveillance and smart home ideas can be considered as the most innovative ideas
Belgium, at the time of the research. K. De Moor et al.//Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 43 the TV AUDIENCE, this simplicity is however under pressure.
In this study, we therefore involved different types of users in an inclusive process to reflect on possible, probable and/or preferable‘TV experiences of the future (initial time horizon:
a review of the literature on current television viewing practices and time spending patterns confirmed the observation that TV is still predominantly a lean back medium.
and although viewers have the opportunity to watch content‘a la carte',anywhere, any time and anyhow,
'The PP2 records a lot of content matching personal interests on the digital recorder and watches it at a convenient time.
This persona is aware of the possibilities with regard to time shifting and on-demand viewing, but does not use them.
but this persona needs time to gradually get used to the new functionalities. The purchase was influenced largely by others in the immediate environment of the NP3.
such as the objectives of an exercise, time and budget, coverage and time horizon. Secondly, it would be relevant to further investigate the link between Innovation Foresight
and change over time (Annex 1). The authors thus developed a new PMS to tackle these limitations,
and its implementation across a firm value chain does not allow the whole system to become flexible and adaptive over time.
will behave or evolve over time. Moreover, the scenario development process should become an important contribution to organisational learning 28.
and to develop an action plan to monitor the achievement of the agreed vision as well as enable adaptation over time. 3. 4. Limitations of the proposed system
and the overall system to become adaptive over time. The limitations of BSC which were still not effectively addressed by the proposed system,
(i e. value chain) and individuals to become adaptive over time. Finally, embedding FTA within the system proposed shall enable firms to steer solutions to possible challenges through joint-up decision making and implementation processes.
which nowadays is referred to as a strategy map 57 61 System dynamics 61 65 In order to analyse the cause and effect relationships between measures,
Using Quality, Time, and Performance Measurements to Chart Your Company's Future, American Management Association, New york, 1993.22 U s. Bititci, A s. Carrie, L. Mcdevitt, Integrated performance measurement systems:
Time for the EU to Meet Global Challenges, Publications Office of the European union, Luxembourg, 2010, http://dx. doi. org/10.2791/4223eur 24364 EN, ISSN 1018
This translates into the firm's aim at surviving over time and sustaining or gaining a competitive advantage over competitors.
Dynamic capabilities research shows that strategic resources lose their value over time 29. Thus, firms need to have innovative capabilities
The project was intended to increase the understanding of the US car market by having managers live with ordinary American families for a certain time
time-limited projects, nonrecurring activity) and evaluate the scope of the activities, i e.,, contributors and beneficiaries of the activities (open network, closed network, contract-based partnerships or single organizations.
and communication technology. 5 The aim of pooling innovation activities in the ICT market was based on three considerations at the time of its foundation:(
The futures research activities at EICT have in common that they are applied usually on a project basis. Projects are set up with explicit definitions of time, scope and desired results.
time-limited project and nonrecurring, singular activity. When comparing the three cases based on the earlier descriptions
and underlying values of the actor (s). No particular time frame (try to look forward as far as we can see or imagine),
whether and how phenomena that were observed at an earlier stage are developiin over time. Participation and involvement of societal and government stakeholders,
An important tool of these sector counciil was participative foresight that developed over time and was used to influence decision-makers in government, research and society in a futureorieente setting.
and worldwide lack of governmentta financial control) 17 became reality within a very short time frame highlights the value of referring to individual scan issues,
The projeec team completed a full-blown scenario descriptiio with the input from all participants after the workshop because of time constraints.
At the time of writing, Jack E Smith was Senior Advisor Federal Foresiigh and Innovation strategy, Defence R&d Canada.
How has evolved the foresight program over time? Do you have a foresight wish list? In the final phase, senior representative (s) from the nine foresight institutions identified during the first study were contacted by email and/or through direec telephone conversations to request additional information,
Excelleen foresight is both time sensitive and attractive to those motivated to detect change ahead of its appearance,
and the uncertainties influencing these drivers were considerred Self-consistent scenarios were constructed then for an agreed time in the future.
The time frame of the roadmaps was divided into three periods: short term (2007 2012), medium term (2012 2017),
Current S&d includes diagnostic testing and monitoring of cases by persoonplace/time characteristics. Future diagnostic or communication technologies could potentially improve upon the likelihood and timing of diagnoosi and reporting.
if no action were to be taken, the time window for effective intervention, and the efficacy of possibbl interventions.
-and longteer time horizons. Diagnosis of infectious diseases is done usually by detecting causative agents (virus, bacterium, etc.
and the intended time horizon. The proposal is being considered by the Rockefeller Foundation for funding,
To this, the final stage (technology roadmappping added the details of a proposed‘working plan'that are suitable in different time frames
i-City was located in Hasselt (Belgium) at the time. Using technologies such as Wi-fi, Bluetooth, general pocket radio service (GPRS) and universal mobile telecommunications system (UMTS),
At the time of the research, the panel had 450 members. Althooug the test users were more than averagely intereeste in mobile technologies,
time-use frameworks were used in the focus groups. Eight categories of daily time-use were identified:
social participation, household activities, study, work, transportation, leisure, health and sleeping and restinngrelaxing. To complement the traditional social science method of focus groups,
For each archetype, we listed a series of daily activities within the time-use framework.
Participants in the focus groups were asked to descrrib their daily activities at different times using questions like
The list was divided preliminnaril into eight categories based on the time-use research. Although the full list of 80 applicattion (Table 2) is too long to be discussed in detail in this paper,
Blind aid Spare time suggestions Museum tour Cot death alarm Mobile search Event information Table 1. Archetype Patricia and some of her daily activities Time use
User-generated applications that were not being developed by the industry at the time of the reseaarch Applications that were mentioned by the users
but rather those applications that enable people to save time and that contribute to a better quality of life.
1. availability of network (connection at any time, anywhere; 2. user-friendliness; 3. interface; Table 4. Ranking of application clusters and separate applications based on respondents'interest level Application (cluster) Average interest (1:
In the pilot study, a photo-download application was for example devellope to simulate different download times (ranging from 0 to 5 second scenarios.
more time is needed to load such things as pictuure on the PDA, which causes the application to slow down.
whether or not they would have had enough time until the end of 2002 to realize any additional innovation gains. 53%of projects were finished by the middle of 2001,78%by the end of 2001.
Hence, for the large majority of the projects there was enough time to have a measurable impact of R&d on their innovation performance.
%The subsidized firms are characterized further by the industry affiliation and the number of employees in full-time equivalents (firm size.
There is some measurement error in this calculation due to the time incongruence between subsidies granted before the beginning of 2000
Time for the EU to meet global challenges'(Boden et al. 2010) to illustrate how horizon scanning can enable collective sense-making processes which assist in the identification of emerging signals and policy issues, the synthesis of such issues into encompassing clusters,
Time for the EU to meet global challenges',24364 EN, 6/2010. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European commission.
but is also very important nowadays and constituute a differential for organizations and countries looking forward to shaping their own future
We can say that they are interconnnecte every time the need arises to identify possible futures
This requires time, especially in the case of complex situations. Again, this is another challenge, as different stakeholders usually have divergent perspectives for defining the best route towards the desired future.
the time available to complete the exercise. The most important intangibles are as follows:.Collective learning..
This starts with the correct identification of factors associated with the subject under analysis, including its nature and scope, time horizon, intended applications of the results by clients etc.
focused on prospective vision and on the definition of strategic guidelines covering time horizons of 5, 10 and 15 years..
Time is usually not a problem and all governance levels are to be considered and respected.
The funding of the 973 Program by S&t fields is shown in Table 4. The most salient example is the 973 Projects where the average funding for one project is 30 million RMB, about 100 times larger
since their time span has varied over the range 8 15 years. The national S&t programs,
and explore the changes in the relationships between these components over time. Since national institutions,
We especially focus on the components of each NSTIS and the changes in their interactions over time.
At the time, strict clinical trials were applied gradually for the development of new herbaceous5 medicines.
The main purpose of the agricultural policies at the time was to direct the agricultural sector to maximize the production of agricultural products, especiaall the primary productions of rice and sugar cane,
and evolve differently over time. As shown by the case of Taiwan in the pharmaceuticca biotechnology innovation system local SMES led the innovation and manufacturing.
but may also change differently over time. Secondly, different NSTISS may adopt the same knowleedg base to develop different products
and co-evolve with different NSTISS over time. Our final issue is the implications of RTDI policies.
Longer-term time horizons to be introduced more expliciitl into shorter-term policy agendas and business planning practices.
Some essentials If innovation is to contribute to solving some of the grand challenges of our time,
The new instruments also acknowledge the importance of long-term time horizons to be introduced more expliciitl into shorter-term policy agendas
time for the EU to meet global challenges',EUR 24364 EN. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European union.<
economic and political to social (pervasive and quick to diffuse with longer term effects emerging over time)
but less obvious ways over time (Ko nno la et al. 2012a). At the same time, the capacity to engineer
The rationales, time horizons and capabilities of the clients and users determine to a large extent what types of results are taken up or not.
Early warning of disruptive events and scientific/technological breakthrough and their likely impacts in scope and time.
Longer-term perspectives must also be incorporated to reflect the time horizons of key global challenges
'167 the height of the Cold war, it demonstrated that even during tense political times scientists from around the world could work together for the betterment of society.
The project was supported by a project officer in the ICSU Secretariat who was able to give about one-third of his working time
Time horizon: The time horizon of the foresight exercise had to be beyond ICSU's usual planning horizons of 5 10 years.
The question was by how much longer. Many of the grand challenges that ICSU activities are focused upon,
particularly climate change, involve change over relatively long time periods measured at least in decades. But this is too long for an exercise that is focused on organisational agility and a vision for international science cooperatiion Given the relative trade-offs,
the exercise settled for a 20-year time horizon, which happens to coincide with the centenary of the founding of ICSU in 1931.
This would give sufficient time for the project's final results to be generated and fed into the new round of strategic planning.
The resulting success scenario has a 20-year time horizon outlining the contours of a desirable state of international cooperation in science in 2031 and ICSU's role in its achievement.
The internal impacts of the success scenario are less certain at the time of writing,
These are all qualities that that can benefit international science cooperation as it seeks to address many of the grand challenges of our time.
and over time (see Section 2. 2) . If effective research and innovation are seen as part of the solution to these tensions,
existing clientele Risk taking for new discoveries Risk averse Priority setting by peers Priority setting by diplomacy Long-term perspective Time pressure Simplified yet sustainable funding Juste retoura
The aligning of research systems with vertical and horizontal co-ordination efforts face major difficulties in facilitating policy activities that lead to sustainable policy efforts over time.
The OECD (2003) defines temporal coherence as a general policy objective that ensures that policies continue to be effective over time
) Temporal co-ordination Ensuring that policies continue to be effective over time and that short-term decisions do not contradict longer-term commitmeent(‘dynamic efficiency')Differences in degree of continuity of policy design
which can change during process accordiin to upcoming needs Analysis of current time horizon of existing programmes reveals a lack of longer term foresights.
Foresights with a time horizon of 2050 and beyond are planned therefore Development of scenarios, desirable futures and pathways towards these futures for specific Urban Europe topics Use of a pilot call to improved understanding of future trends
and can compare this with current programmes and their time horizons. Alternatively, current and planned programmes can be checked against alternative future scenarios to test their robustness over time.
Temporal co-ordination also relates to regularly checking those scenariios visions and roadmaps against new developments
and to help building communities over time, thus making use of the collective knowledge of wider stakeholder groups.
At the time of writing this paper only the expected outcomes have been defined, as well as criteria to assess potential call topics, such as providing input and insights for developing new concepts and providing input for research roadmaps.
and to be time consuming, hence be counterproductive by inhibiting the rapid and efficient implementation of transnational research programming.
The transnational, efficient and effective engagement of numerous stakeholders may lead to time-consuming and resource-intensive processes.
However, such internatiiona engagements call for a structured and modular design to avoid endeavours that are time-and resource-intensive.
industrial relevance, possible time horizon for industrial use and need for collaboration at EU level. 27.
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