Horizon

Horizon (167)
Horizon scan (68)
Horizon scanning system (3)
Joint horizon scanning (20)

Synopsis: Horizon: Horizon:

Introduction New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis The 2004 EU US seminarb Fabiana Scapolo European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies

The diversity among these disciplines reflects the complexity of demands for FTA relating to differences in scope (geographic scale and time horizon;

) and future time horizon 513 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 representatives of public organisations and regulatory bodies,

although sharing some methodological characteristics and similarities in terms of time horizons and audiences addressed, usually have different aims, scopes and levels of implementation.

in Section 4 alternative visions are devised at three levels, with the time horizon of 2020 2025.

sustainable imaginative futures that can enable our species to apply its intuitive ingenuity to face the challenges of today and those anticipated over the horizon:

these approaches are often deficient with regard to addressing the broad range of uncertainties associated with the long planning horizon (more extensively treated in 5). Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 Corresponding

Due to the long term horizon of infrastructure decisions, the planning process has to deal with lately increasing uncertainties in different fields.

and system alternatives for an infrastructure system in the time horizon of 25 years which is congruent with the expected average lifetime of central infrastructure components.

The context, emphasis and time horizons of examination vary, however. For instance, risk assessment in the context of industrial process safety aims to predict the risk caused by a failure, deviation,

The time horizon considered typically is a couple of years maximum referring to the practice to revise the analysis every three to five years.

The time horizon varies from some five to fifty years, depending on the issues examined and the purpose of the foresight exercise.

Time horizon 0 5 years 5 50 years Phases Scope definition, risk identification, risk estimation (probability, consequences), risk evaluation The pre foresight phase

and topics with a time horizon of 10 to 15 years and longer be rapidly

or companies in other countries dealing with crosscutting issues and future topics with a time horizon of 10 to 15 years and beyond?

There are also data available on the types of businesses that use scenarios most often large firms in capital-intensive industries with long (greater than 10 years) planning horizons.

In addition, policy-makers and strategists often have not only different time horizons than scenario planners, but also very different attention foci.

http://www. foresight. gov. uk/Horizon%20%Scanning%20centre/Fanclubnews/Feb2008. asp (accessed 7th july 2008.

There is no clearly defined time horizon in either case. The Technical research Council plan mentions that its strategy is about prioritising areas of science with special importance for society during the next 10 20 years.

The Energy research programme refers to targets and their horizons in the Government's energy policy: 2030 and the Kyoto Protocol's timeframe of 2008 2012.

-oriented Technology-oriented and methods Time horizon 10 20 years 2008 2012 and 2030 Method, systematics and tools Invited vision papers Council discussions Council members'own

and assessed for different time horizons. The reasons for success in terms of shortteer policy impacts will be highlighted

Although the foresight process was targeting the time horizon 2015 (and in some instances even beyond),

and the restrictions on the time horizon implied Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 966 K. M. Weber et al. that some longer-term issues tended to be excluded

and thus policy-relevant, time horizon implied that severra important longer-term issues, likely to be of a controversial nature,

and the long wave, Futures 34 (3 4 april 2002) 317 336.5 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis the 2004 EU-US seminar, Technological forecasting

ii) In the same way that new solutions may have been out of procurer's horizons,

and have more accurate forecasts on the time-horizons of S&t developments. 2. 2. Chosen future perspectives:

It applies trend analysis with a time-horizon of 30 years. Autonomous Expert group work.

Future Impact of ICTS on Environmental Sustainabilityh 22 Informative Explore how ICTS will influence future environmental sustainability (time horizon:

and to assess (quantitatively) the ways in which ICTS would influence future environmental sustainability (time horizon:

sustainable development can be seen as a proposal with an ethical modernity in its horizon and not only a technical one;

or continuity in the horizon of a transforming intervention of the‘world of needs'22.1 Cf.

so for example, James Hanson's presentation to the US Congress in 1988 about possible global warming on the horizon,

3. Estimated time horizon: 2008 2015; 2016 2025; beyond 2025.3.1.2. Data set Total surveys submitted:

Analysis of assessed impact, likelihood, controversy, time horizon patterns; Comparison of FTA COMMUNITY insights-domains content with others sources of Foresight trends, drivers, etc.

or government respondents see the prospective developments in longer or shorter time horizons than the business respondents?

Likelihood and time horizon assessment. The majority of the trends were considered to be medium to high probability of occurrence.

Assessed together with the time horizon, the survey respondents generally expect that the highest controversies are likely to emerge from 2016 to 2025.3.2.2.3.

%Likelihood and time horizon assessment. Almost all respondents from all regions considered that there is a medium to high level of occurrence of the trends identified. 75%of the North american respondents considered that the likelihood of occurrence was high,

More than half of the respondents from North america and the EU countries suggested a medium time horizon (between 2016 and 2025) for the occurrence of the trends identified.

Likelihood and time horizon assessment. Similarly no significant differences were encountered between the different affiliation category groups.

whereas the majority of the respondents from business envisaged shorter time horizon for the emergence of trends (between 2008 and 2015.

The responses from the respondents from governments were balanced more between long, medium and short time horizons.

Time horizon. All respondents from less than 1 year experience to more than 15 years considered that the majority of the drivers will occur between 2016 and 2025.3.2.3.2.

Likelihood and time horizon assessment. The respondents from North america and the EU countries suggested similar assessments for the likelihood of occurrence of the drivers identified.

whereas the majority of the respondents from the EU Candidate countries assessed the time horizon for the occurrence of drivers after 2025.3.2.3.3.

Likelihood and time horizon assessment. The majority of respondents from Academia and NGOS expected a medium level of likelihood of occurrence for the drivers identified.

if any of these eventually emerge. 3. 2. 4. 1. Further assessment of wild cards/shocks by time horizon,

Experience time horizon. As the years of experience increased, the time horizon for the occurrence of wild cards tended to remain between 2016 and 2025.

Respondents with no experience expected that the wild cards would occur after 2025, whereas the respondents with maximum 3 years of experience had a shorter time horizon (2008 2015).

Affiliation time horizon. Regarding the affiliation of participants, the time of occurrence for wild cards indicates parallelism between the respondents from Academia, Business and Other affiliations,

who have a medium term time horizon. While the time horizon for students and NGO respondents is longer,

it is the opposite for the participants from the Government, where the majority (40%)has a shorter time horizon for the occurrence of wild cards.

Country of residence time horizon. Respondents from the EU Candidate countries have a longer time horizon,

compared to the respondents from the rest of Europe. The respondents from North america have balanced a more distribution of time horizons among short

medium and long terms. Table 4 Examples of wild cards/shocks. Examples of wild cards shocks by category A b c Society & Culture 42 Rise of dogma, e g. creativism/creationism, social resistance to technological change New diseases from pharmaceutical and space

research Intolerance of science to renew moral outrage over genetic modification, trans-humanist research, etc.

Strong classes between cultures, intensification of conflicts between cultural classes Population boom & high competition in job markets Decline of knowledge grounded in local society and history because of less direct human interaction

Likelihood and time horizon assessment. The likelihood of occurrence for about 50%of the discontinuities identified was considered to be medium.

Likelihood and time horizon assessment. Strong disagreements were observed regarding the likelihood of occurrence of the drivers identified.

Likelihood and time horizon assessment. Regarding the likelihood of occurrence of discontinuities, the responses from Academia,

The figures changed slightly in the assessment of time horizons. This time Academia and Business suggested that most of the discontinuities would emerge from 2016 to 2025

whereas students and Governmental respondents expected a longer time horizon (beyond 2025. 3. 2. 6. Weak signals The radar diagram below (Fig. 12) shows the orientations of the 171 weak signals identified by the respondents of the Big Picture Survey.

of weak signals by time horizon, affiliation and country of residence. Experience time horizon. The respondents with a Foresight experience longer than 1 year expect most the majority of the weak signals to emerge in the medium term future (2016 2025),

whereas the inexperienced respondents have a longer time horizon (beyond 2025). This is likely due to the familiarity that older

and more experienced contributors have with how fast changes can really appear from insight to application.

Affiliation time horizon. The majority of the Business respondents have a longer term time horizon (beyond 2025) compared to the respondents from Academia

and Governments who consider that most of the weak signals will occur in the mid-term (2016 2025).

Country of residence time horizon. Regardless the country of residence most of the respondents have medium term time horizon, with a higher emphasis from the EU Associate countries.

Table 6 Examples of weak signals. Examples of weak signals by category A b c Society & Culture 61 Concept of rational behaviour in modernity losing value

1) trends and drivers by experience, country of residence and affiliation and also by responses on impact, likelihood, controversy and horizon time;(

'2 but there is also value in selecting topics that are likely to arouse strong interest. 3 The challenge for high impact FTA is to select issues that have both a long time horizon,

http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2008/prog day1. html. 4 F. Scapolo, E. Cahill, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis, in:

New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, 2004, European communities Technical Report EUR 21473 EN. 5 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis:

but that the longer the reviewed time horizon gets, the more uncertain the results become.

and energy strategy for Finland 1. The time horizon in the climate and energy strategy was 2020,

but it has to be noted that the longer the reviewed time horizon gets, the more uncertain the results become.

Hickman, R. and Banister, D. 2007),‘Looking over the horizon: transport and reduced CO2 emissions in the UK by 2030'',Transport Policy, Vol. 14, pp. 377-87.

urban planning has become more of an action-oriented process with short and medium-term horizons.

which three spatial scenarios were set out for the horizon 2030 (European foresight Platform, 20115). Finally, the European foresight Platform, another European commission funded body, has made an intense effort to compile several regional foresight exercises within its Knowledge sharing Platform (European foresight Platform, 2011.

which social attitudes towards sustainable development were explored in the Spanish context for the horizon 2025 (Fundacio'n OPTI, 2007).

and stimulating conversation, all of which can broaden horizons and increase creativity by no means negligible benefits. More important, these studies can affect basic beliefs, assumptions and emphases (Kahn and Wiener, 1967.

3. These various tools and strategies differ according to the range of technology targeted, the time horizon span, their goals and outcomes, etc.

qualified estimates about technological hurdles and the degree of difficulty to overcome them and related time horizons,

In creative evolution, at each horizon of action, we rely on a temporary blueprint of the world.

The outcome is then a version of the long-time notion of the future as a present appreciation of current knowledge projected to some future horizon.

in all its STEEPV components, towards that fuzzy‘event horizon'beyond which lie the unknown unknowns (6) The quantitative data that features in FTA do not escape from behavioural influences in its transformation into information

A specific initiative the‘Probes Program'has been established recently as a long-run (10-year time horizon) research project intended to present‘provocations'about new lifestyle patterns,

Foresight activities usually cover a 10-year time horizon, while emerging trend investigations are scheduled yearly to fit in with the annual strategy calendar.

In the case of the consumer products and ICT businesses, the time horizon is 5 years.

for a limited time horizon, will be maintained through interdependence between itself and a swarm of suppliers and customers.

We use a notion of process-based roadmapping that widens the horizons of traditional technology roadmapping in such directions as visionary strategic management, network building and development,

which extends the horizons of roadmappiing We also presented four case examples the Building Service Roadmap, SSB Network, Construction Machinery Roadmap,

time horizons for innovation, and scope of study all reinforce the need to adapt these 10 steps to one's priorities.

and innovation communities to consider the impacts of changes in conditions, resources and other factors over different time horizons.

but also on their strategic importance in shaping the socioeconomic horizons of organizations and national economics.

and Technology policy Research institute (STEPI) Technology foresight Research team, National research Center for Science and Technology for Development Time horizon 2035 2030 2020 Original category Energy and resources Energy

In addition, the content of Delphi topics depends on the time horizon of the foresight activities. For example, the foresight activity of Japan has up to a 30-year time horizon,

and hence the technology trends provided by the scanned Delphi survey will provide a long-term view while the result from patent analysis for CTI or for forecasting provide a short-term view.

and implications Since the time horizons surveyed in the three scanned foresight report are different, the Delphi topics need to be screened again based on their realization time for cross-country comparison.

The time horizons surveyed for Delphi topics in Japan are‘‘time of technological realization''and‘‘time of social application''.

''The time horizons surveyed for Delphi topics in South korea are‘‘time of international realization''and‘‘time for domestic realization''.

''The time horizon is not specific in the Chinese Delphi topics but the forecasting time horizon for the whole foresight activity was set at up to the year 2020, by

which technology that can be realized before the year 2020 is preselected. Therefore, Delphi topics with a realization time before the year 2020,

and the possible Table V Realization time distribution of Delphi topic in Japan, South korea and China Before 2020 2021-2030 After 2031 Time horizon Topics Ratio (percent

its geographical scope, time horizon, themes, methods, participants, budget, and other resources, target audience, communication strategy, etc.

the time horizon to be considered; the desire of their sponsors/clients; the number, experience, analytical and methodological skills and value system of their participants;

However, in the case of long-term horizons, such informed estimates have limited only predictive value. As clarified by Lüdeke 64,

and differences in cultural backgrounds requires a longer time horizon and below we suggest some of the steps that could be taken in such direction. 5. 2. 1. Lack of identified good practices In light of the growing volume and variety of FTA practices,

and thus tailoring foresight phases to different foresight functions. 15 Typically, quantitative models present higher credibility for shorter time horizons,

E. Cahill, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis: proceedings of the EU US scientific seminar:

. H. Wai, Developing a horizon scanning system for early warning, in: 12th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, US Naval War College, Newport R i. USA, June 19 21,2007, 2007, Available at:

It follows that such projection becomes increasingly precarious as the future horizon is extended beyond a few years.

Under conditions of deep uncertainty, long time horizons, and high dynamic complexity, a more exploratory use of models is called for 26.

Mineral and metal scarcity is characterized by long time horizons diverging beliefs and ideas about system functioning,

which the option evolves during the time horizon of the simulation. 3. 3. 3. Analysis of results Fig. 5 shows a performance envelope for five outcome indicators.

slope change fraction Yearly fractional change in the slope of the load duration curve-0. 01 0. 01 Planning horizon of the generation companies Upper bound for the planning horizon of the generation companies.

Planning horizon for each generation company is initialized randomly using a uniform distribution with a lower (i e. 5 years) and an upper bound) 6 12 Mean return on investment of generation companies Average expected return

plank of the new core programme Horizon 2020 11. The tendency is also visible in the United states where the White house Office of Science

Towards integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting & Social Change 71 (2004) 287 303 2004.2 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis the 2004 EU US

936.11 European commission, Communication from The Commission to the European parliament, the Council, the European Economic And Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, Horizon 2020 The Framework programme for Research and Innovation, Brussels, 30.11.2011 COM

including all of its functions, with a time horizon of at least 10 years. At the local level, a document analysis was combined with interviews with policymakers.

In this study, we therefore involved different types of users in an inclusive process to reflect on possible, probable and/or preferable‘TV experiences of the future (initial time horizon:

such as the objectives of an exercise, time and budget, coverage and time horizon. Secondly, it would be relevant to further investigate the link between Innovation Foresight

and data of three governmental horizon Table 2. FTA scores for modelling and horizon scanning FTA score for modelling FTA score for horizon scanning Characteristic Score Comment Characteristic

The netherlands and Denmark in a joint horizon pilot project initiated under the ERA NET Forsociety, this paper makes a series of recommendations regarding horizon scanning processes at the national level and the construction of common future-oriented policies.

the Joint Horizon project was launched, focused on assessing the feasibility and desirability of joining the individual horizon scanning activities of the participating countries (the UK, Denmark and The netherlands).

In generral this means that the future horizon is divided up into a set of categories that serve as coordinaate (in parallel with the spatial coordinates used by radar

since the horizon reveals more details each year, it is necessary to repeat the scan to see what has changed.

Not only on the far horizon, to search for new emerging issues, but also to check whether and how phenomena that were observed at an earlier stage are developiin over time.

Denmark started a horizon scan process in 2006, focusing on the societal needs of the future and Emerging s&t.

The exercise of the High-level Expert Group on Key technologies for Europe9 can also be considered a horizon scanning exercise,

Results policy impacts and implications Comparison of national horizon scans Rationales for governmental horizon scanning All three scans can be considered as very broad-scope foresight processes that look well beyond the preseentday horizon for new

Identify possible inter-linkages (enhancers, inhibitoors multipliers) between future issues (from differren parts of the horizon) with a potentially major impact.

It provides a rich source of Table 3. Category%of issues in Sigma (UK horizon)*%of issues in OECD DASTI (DK-horizon)% of issues in COS (NL-horizon)% of issues in all

Therefore, horizon scanniin is highly complementary to these tools. The fact that the horizon scans considered here were developed for different purposes illustrates their versatility as a policy

and merits further attention which hopefully will be proviide by projects such as the Far Horizon project that was approved recently by the EC

Available at<http://www. foresight. gov. uk/Horizon%20scanning%20centre/index. asp>,last accessed 1 june 2009.7.

Horizonsscan available at<http://www. dsta. gov. sg/index. php/943-DSTA-Horizons-2009>,last accessed 1 june 2009.

-and longteer time horizons. Diagnosis of infectious diseases is done usually by detecting causative agents (virus, bacterium, etc.

and the intended time horizon. The proposal is being considered by the Rockefeller Foundation for funding,

This starts with the correct identification of factors associated with the subject under analysis, including its nature and scope, time horizon, intended applications of the results by clients etc.

focused on prospective vision and on the definition of strategic guidelines covering time horizons of 5, 10 and 15 years..

Longer-term time horizons to be introduced more expliciitl into shorter-term policy agendas and business planning practices.

These shortcomings are recognised well in Horizon 2020 and certain new initiatives have been proposed to overcome them.

The new instruments also acknowledge the importance of long-term time horizons to be introduced more expliciitl into shorter-term policy agendas

The rationales, time horizons and capabilities of the clients and users determine to a large extent what types of results are taken up or not.

Longer-term perspectives must also be incorporated to reflect the time horizons of key global challenges

Time horizon: The time horizon of the foresight exercise had to be beyond ICSU's usual planning horizons of 5 10 years.

The question was by how much longer. Many of the grand challenges that ICSU activities are focused upon,

the exercise settled for a 20-year time horizon, which happens to coincide with the centenary of the founding of ICSU in 1931.

The resulting success scenario has a 20-year time horizon outlining the contours of a desirable state of international cooperation in science in 2031 and ICSU's role in its achievement.

2010) Envisioning Future research Horizons: Scenarios for the European research Landscape 2025. Munich: Fraunhofer Gesellschaft. ICSU. 2006) Strengthening International Science for the Benefit of Society:

which can change during process accordiin to upcoming needs Analysis of current time horizon of existing programmes reveals a lack of longer term foresights.

Foresights with a time horizon of 2050 and beyond are planned therefore Development of scenarios, desirable futures and pathways towards these futures for specific Urban Europe topics Use of a pilot call to improved understanding of future trends

and can compare this with current programmes and their time horizons. Alternatively, current and planned programmes can be checked against alternative future scenarios to test their robustness over time.

industrial relevance, possible time horizon for industrial use and need for collaboration at EU level. 27.

2010)‘ A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2010',Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 25:1 7. Sutherland, W. J.,Fleishman, E.,Mascia, B.,Pretty

by definition, lie beyond current horizons, there is often only scarce and scattered evidence to support the collection of signals and the assessment of their significance.

Blackburn, S.,Cudd, P. and Hawley, M. 2010)‘ A horizon scanning system for identifying new telehealth innovations',Global Telemedicine and ehealth Updates:

cities and organisattions Even the New framework Programme‘Horizon 2020'will stress programmes that are based on‘social challenges'(European commission 2011:

'Horizon 2020: The Framework programme for Research and Innovation, COM (2011) 808 final. Brussels: European commission. Glenn, J. C.,Gordon, T. J. and Florescu, E. 2009)‘ 2009 State of the Future;

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