| Horizon (167) |  |
| Horizon scan (68) | |
| Horizon scanning system (3) | |
| Joint horizon scanning (20) | |
| Horizon (167) | |
| Horizon scan (68) | |
| Horizon scanning system (3) | |
| Joint horizon scanning (20) | |
, 2000, pp. 78 92.8 Horizon scan Report, Towards a Future Oriented Policy and Knowledge Agenda, COS, The hague, 2007, www. horizonscan. nl. 9 K. Cuhls
Additionally, horizonscanning is anchored in many departments, often in form of dedicated units. 5 Examples of using scenarios to frame
1 UK Ministry of Defence, UK Foresight Office Horizon scan; Global Futures Forum Vancouver April 2008, Europe@2025 European commission.
and essential outputs of Horizon scanning. 2 The UK and The netherlands have conducted their national horizon scans. In its Science and Innovation Investment Framework 2004 2014, the UK Government committed to establishing a Centre of Excellence in Horizon scanning
as well as persistent problems or trends''(http://horizonscanning. defra. gov. uk last visited on March 14, 2009.
www. bis. gov. uk/assets/foresight/docs/horizonscanning-centre/futuresinpolicyguidance. pdf (accessed 6 june 2012. Byrne, D. 1998), Complexity theory and the Social sciences:
The main exception to this anchorage in the mainstream has been the emergence of horizonscanning where in the face of uncertainty the goal is to uncover the Rumsfeldian‘unknown unknowns'2
'A key problem with horizonscanning is that it normally adopts a scattergun approach which leaves each topic treated superficially and in isolation, with little guidance on interlinkages and cross-impacts,
On behalf of DASTI, the OECD's International Futures Programme Unit carried out an international horizon scan, which led to 125 important trends and grand challenges.
The evaluation of the process revealed that the material from the OECD horizon scan was used only to a very limited degree.
Strategy for Denmark in the Global economy Summary, The Danish Government, Copenhagen, 2006.32 OECD-DASTI Horizon scan, 2007.33 Teknologisk Institut, Evaluering af Forsk2015.
Analysing the national horizon scans of the UK The netherlands and Denmark in a joint horizon pilot project initiated under the ERA NET Forsociety,
and to identify gaps in the knowledge agenda (this definition has been derived from the UK Foresight Horizon scanning Centre (HSC) and Horizon scan Netherlands),
Horizon scans are initiated and used by different privaat and public organisations, mainly for strategic reasons. Most of the broader governmental horizon scans were initiated by ministries of defence or their agencies (Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centrre 2006;
Defence S&t Agency Singapore, 2009; Spring et al. 2007; Quiggin, 2007. Other examples were initiated by ministries or departments,
and internatioona foresight projects as consultant and leads a pilot project joining the horizon scans of the UK,
and Public policy February 2010 9 horizon scans can be narrower in scope (only looking for new technologies),
and comparing horizon scans lies in the expectation that the sum of the scans may reveal issues that have been overlooked in the separate national scans.
and issue descripptions from the horizon scans of the UK, The netherlands and Denmark; develop a model for continuous data sharing and comparison;
compare working methods and methodologies used by the different horizon scans and formulate recommendations for improvement;
The possible use of the horizon scan data at the European commission (EC) level was discussed in interviews with representattive of different directorates within the EC.
Results policy impacts and implications Comparison of national horizon scans Rationales for governmental horizon scanning All three scans can be considered as very broad-scope foresight processes that look well beyond the preseentday horizon for new
Development of the national horizon scans Data collection All three scans were developed in phases. In the first phase
Once complete, the UK horizon scans were publisshe on a public internet site (see Notes 11 and 12.
The netherlands horizon scan was published on an open internet site (see Note 8) at an early stage of the project,
Principal use of the scan data The UK horizon scan (see Figure 1) has tended to be used as part of a client-oriented project approach
Furthermore, it was expected that publication of the issue lists on the horizon scan website would have the effect of raising public awareness of the issue.
Review phase Delivery phase Research phase OST Horizon scanning Centre Figure 1. Schematic design of UK horizon scan Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February
and filtering issues All horizon scans are based on broad and intensive literature surveys (including foresight, future studies and even science fiction) and panel groups.
and in the UK horizon scan are called issues. Horizzo scanning is different from trend scanning (Rollwaage et al.
Report with recommendations for knowledge and strategic agenda Website Figure 2. Design of The netherlands horizon scan Source:
Mapping of research needs OECD horizon scan Obtaining proposals for research needs Phase 2: Identification of themes Team of experts User panel Phase 3:
The final proposal Dialogue with involved parties from research and society Final research themes RESEARCH2015 catalogue Figure 3. Design of the Danish OECD DAST horizon scan Source:
the horizon scan started in 2004 to guide this search in a systematic way. In 2007 The netherlands government decided to abandon the system of‘sector councils
cultural and social respeects The horizon scan was mandated by the Danish parliament in 2006 to feed directly into the research agenda setting.
For the OECD DASTI horizon scan it was clear from the beginning that the results of the scan would be used as an important input for the process of priorittisin new research themes for the Danish fouryeea cycle of the research funding councils
Within The netherlands the preliminary results of the horizon scan (COS) were used also as input for the strategic planning
After the report was published the horizon scan team was approached by a number of organisatiion and regional and local communities that asked for help and/or cooperation in the area of horizon scanning and development of future strategies.
The UK horizon scan has a more continuous characcte due to its recognised central task and its strong networking capacity in the UK government and futuure community,
Further development of the joint horizon scan On the basis of the experience of the pilot joint horizzo scan and discussions within the established netwoor of interested organisations and interviews with representatives of different directorates of the EC, a proposal
for further development of the joint horizon scan has been developed within the Forsociety Netwoor (van Rij, 2008. This proposal suggests developpin a network of countries
The fact that the horizon scans considered here were developed for different purposes illustrates their versatility as a policy
In the UK horizon scan expert essays were written to proviid more depth. In future, the way forward may be to link the broad national scan with more in depth departmental scans from other ministries
Complexity It is clear that the issues identified in the horizon scans are very different in nature:
Embeddedness In the UK the horizon scan is embedded in the strateegi function of government and closely connected to the national foresight programme.
which the horizon scan may be used as an indicator and scoping device for specific strategic forward looking activities (as scenario building,
Available at<http://www. horizonscanning. gov. au/>,last accessed 1 june 2009.5. Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health, Environnmenta Scanning Service.
Available at<http://www. cadth. ca/index. php/en/hta/programs/horizonscanning>,last accessed 1 february 2010.6. UK HSC.
Netherlands Horizon scan. Available at<http://www. horizonscan. nl/>,last accessed 1 june 2009.9. Creative system disruption:
See threats number 67 and 65 on page 101/102 of the Netherlland Horizon scan report (In't Veld et al.
) These issuue were published also on the Dutch horizon scan website at the end of 2005. References Academy of Finland and TEKES, 2006.
Availabbl at<http://www. cs. um. edu. mt/gpac1/Teaching/Foresight/Papers/Horizonscanning. doc>,last accessed 1 october 2008.
Available from<http://horizonscanning. defra. gov. uk/Viewdocument image. aspx? Doc id=192>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
Available from<http://www. erff. org. uk/publications/reports/20071212-horizonscanning-report. aspx>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
Horizon scan Report 2007, Towards a Future Oriented Policy and Knowledge Agenda. COS. Available from<http://www. horizonscan. nl/uploads/File/COS BINNENWERK%20engels 06 (1). pdf,
OECD-DASTI, 2007, Horizon scan August 2007 (2007. Available from:<<http://www. oecd. org/dataoecd/22/56/39991237. pdf>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
In recent years, institutional responses have included the setting up of horizonscanning centres and similar anticipattor structures (Amanatidou et al. 2012;
This is reflected in the setting up of dedicated horizonscanning centres (cf. Amanatidou et al. 2012) in the UK, Netherlands and Singapore at national or regional levels, aimed at identifyiin not only major long-term trends and drivers,
In order to realize this function, horizonscanning centres or units at national, regional and international level are emerging.
as reflected, for instance, in the creation of new dedicated horizonscanning centres, the strengthening of parliamentary technology assessment offices and the establishment of dedicated foresight units in firms and public administration.
'Recent horizon scans of the UK, Netherlands and Denmark show us many examples of smaller and larger potential emerging issues.
Policy-makers may face barriers to taking the results of horizon scans on board as they may be contradicted by vested interests.
On the other hand, horizon scans in The netherlands and UK had spotted already the financial crisis two years before it started.
Notes 1. See<http://www. bis. gov. uk/foresight/our-work/horizonscanning-centre>accessed 21 december 2011.2.
particularly when describing grand challenges that have to be addressed through European policy-making. 4. Implications for horizon scanning The recent proliferation of horizonscanning activities is linked partly to the popularity of the‘wisdom of the Table 2. Example of a crosscutting challenge consisting of issues from all three analyses
To sum up, we have illustrated that horizonscanning activities need not be limited to the collection of future-oriented observations.
Notes 1. See<http://horizonscanning. defra. gov. uk>accessed 26 september 2011. See also Schultz (2006. 2. Effie Amanatidou, Anette Braun, Ville Brummer and Mika Mannermaa supported JRC-IPTS in reviewing four out of the six areas. 3. During the International Seville Conference
2011)‘ Horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2011',Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 26:10 6. Taleb, N. N. 2007) The Black swan:
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