| Experience (357) |  |
| Practical experience (6) | |
| Experience (357) | |
| Practical experience (6) | |
1. Methodological selection This session focused on experience and guidance on which methods to use for what purpose,
experience curves, applying foresight to the concept of continuous social transformation with responsibility, voluntary negotiated agreements in major policy areas giving rise to foresight
to review in a fairly hands-on way methodological experience thus far, and to outline the substantial methodological challenges ahead. 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
and issues only rather than aiming at solutions. 6 See in particular the experiences made in the UK especially the most recent evaluation of the UK Foresight 12,
in our experience, is understood not well by the foresight community, and therefore we claim to provide here a novel integrative framework for taking on several of the main weaknesses of current foresight practice.
but it is made based on experiences by the authors over the past ten years in a number of European and national foresight and policy strategy processes.
Another experience that led the way towards Adaptive foresight was the use of scenario methodologies in the first Swedish National foresight exercise. 15 Based on these experiences
experiences were made with Strategic Niche Management19 and Transition Management20 as approaches to devise forward-looking policy strategies for long-term transformations of infrastructure and sectoral innovation systems towards sustainability.
38.20 Experiences with the approach of Transition Management have been made in Austria and in particular in The netherlands 39,26, 40.21 At the moment,
It is our experience that a good initial focal issue is important for a successful first workshop,
p. 187.28 Available on www. ovalmap. com. 29 A dozen tokens of each colour to place freely among clusters is often a practical number. 30 See for instance the experience made in the context of the project FISTERA (Foresight
More specifically, the experiences made in the course of hands-on implementation need to be monitored
see footnotes 14 21.478 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 years of experience with foresight, adaptive planning
Fig. 1 summarises important experiences thus far with AF, based on selected Austrian, Nordic and European projects in which the authors have been involved.
The AF approach as outlined in this paper is based on experience from small developed countries. But the basic argument, we contend,
Looking at the experiences made so far this has not been achieved, not the least because most AF-inspired processes have been conducted quite recently and in general as one-shot activities.
Experiences with Adaptive foresight in Austria, in: M. Munch Andersen, A. Tukker (Eds. Perspectives on Radical changes to Sustainable Consumption and Production (SCP.
Experiences from the preparation of an international research program Ville Brummer a, 1, Totti Könnölä b, 2, Ahti Salo a a Systems analysis Laboratory, Helsinki University of Technology, P o box
Specifically, we report experiences froma recent consultation process that was organized withinwoodwisdom-Net (ERA NET) with the aim of creating an international research agenda, based on the recognition of long-term challenges of the European forest sector and the attendant identification of gaps and new
and implementation of an embedded foresight process that was organized in the ERA NET program on wood material sciences 8. Building on the experiences from this process,
It is against this background that we describe experiences from the implementation of an embedded foresight process in Woodwisdom-Net, one of the ERA NETS.
Drawing upon experiences from earlier collaboration with the Systems analysis Laboratory at Helsinki University of Technology in the development of a Scandinavian co-funded Wood Material Science Research program 16, the project plan for the Woodwisdom
and synthesize results to support the work of funding organizations in the formulation of calls for proposals. 3. 2. 2. Phases of the consultation process The process design relied on earlier experiences form cyclic foresight processes 3, 17.
the experiences from this process have implications for other ERA NETS and consultation processes, too. In effect, the bottom up consultation process in Woodwisdom-Net where the participating researchers and industrialists interacted with a large shared pool of research issues can be contrasted with less transparent processes of international RTD priority setting where the preliminary priorities
The promising experiences from thewoodwisdom-Net consultation process, together with those from related processes for the Forest-Based Sector Technology platform 3, suggest that further work on the development of consultation processes within European coordination
further work is needed to take stock of experiences, to develop suitable foresight methodologies for international consultation processes,
based on the experiences collected in the project, or reported in the literature. Finally, we derive requirements for future research. 2. Overview of regulatory foresight methodologies
which cannot rely on a broad range of experience. Furthermore, simple quantitative approaches by constructing time series of science
especially regarding quality and compatibility standards. 3. 2. 4. General assessment In general, there is only limited experience in the use of surveys for identifying future needs for standards and regulation.
Hence this assessment mainly depends on the experiences collected during the recent past and some previous studies cited above:
From these experiences, it can also be derived that the Delphi methodology can be used to set priorities in regulation
However, the sound experiences of the Japanese and German Delphi studies underline that foresight methodologies can be applied for the identification and setting priorities of future areas of regulation and therefore also of standardisation
we have been able to collect relevant experiences from some selected studies and to conduct several studies trying to determine the future needs for regulations and standards,
Table 3 constitutes an attempt to summarise the information included in the methodologies section and the results and experiences collected.
Based on the few existing experiences with surveys, it can be concluded that this methodology allows the identification of very specific future regulatory issues.
because regulatory bodies have in general no experiences with foresight activities and a long-lasting process of convincing stakeholders about the need and effectiveness of such approaches are required.
A first approach was launched in Germany by a study to identify future themes for standardisation based on the negative experiences in the case of nanotechnology,
MPM for various possible innovation chains requires insights from practitioners who have experience and something at stake in creating
Change 71 (2004) 5 26.17 D. Probert, M. Radnor, Frontier experiences from industry academia consortia, Res.
and practice for thinking about the future Overcome path dependency and lock ins Collective learning through an open exchange of experiences Accumulation of experience in using foresight tools and thinking actively about the future Lower level goals:
but also by people's wants, motives, personalities, experiences, value systems, wishes, hopes, expectations, beliefs, feelings, attitudes, needs and concerns.
She has 10-year experience in policy development and analysis in the field of research and innovation.
Their diverse accumulated knowledge and experience, as well as distinct viewpoints are indispensable for building policy-relevant visions.
The very idea behind participatory programmes is to bring together different stakeholders with their diverse sets of accumuulate knowledge and experience,
gaining experience, building contacts in more advanced regions across the Triad, and then exploiting these contacts upon return to‘cohesion'regions via intense, mutually beneficial co-operation One-way street:
Widely distributed across the whole EU, sharing experience across stronger and weaker regions, geared towards specific needs not pursuing to diffuse‘one size fits all'type practices, supported by an appropriate, co-ordinatedmix of regional, national and EU
sharing experience among themselves and with their partners in Triad regions, geared towards specific needs, supported by an appropriate, coordinated mix of regional, national and EU policies Financial infrastructure Conscious EU efforts (policies,
exchange of experience) to improve financial infrastructure across the EU No conscious EU efforts to improve financial infrastructure in the laggard regions Policy-preparation methods,
exchange of experience) to improve policymakkin practices across the EU No conscious EU efforts (guidelines,
networking, exchange of experience) to improve policy-making practices in the laggard regions a Co-operation with the relevant Triad partners is taken for granted,
'gaining experience, building contacts in more advanced regions, and then exploiting these contacts upon return to‘cohesion regions'via intense,
exchanging these sorts of experience among the concerned actors is desirable, as are promoting strategic dialogues among the stakeholders,
and thus the accumulated knowledge and experience, as well as distinct viewpoints and approaches of the major stakeholders involved in these strategic dialogues,
We will present empirical evidence to support our claims from the experiences of implementing the RIF method in The swiss sanitation sector.
Framing a strong exploratory approach to strategic planning Based on these experiences, we may now frame the problem of informing strategic infrastructure planning by foresight as follows:
we want to illustrate the individual steps of the procedure by presenting experiences gained in a specific pilot case in The swiss sanitation sector. 4. 1. Strategic planning in The swiss sanitation sector The swiss sanitation sector can be considered a success
After our rich empirical experiences, we believe that a strong explorative perspective can be combined productively with strategic decision making,
E. Störmer, Focus on actors initial experiences with system constellations in theory-based evaluations, Z. Eval. 7 (1)( 2008) 35 73.61 J. Mayers, Stakeholder power
and its multidisciplinary technology foresight team, consisting of researchers with experience on foresight, technology assessment and risk assessment studies,
On the other hand, the development of foresight and technology assessment methodologies is expected to benefit from the experiences of the industrial risk assessment tradition:
The paper builds on VTT experience in a variety of prospective risk assessment contexts (information-based infrastructures
which risk assessment and FTA METHODOLOGIES and tools can be integrated systematically on the basis of the VTT experiences.
which the participants are selected based on their relevant knowledge and experience of the industrial process. The pertinent literature and other kinds of external expert knowledge are consulted also as deemed necessary Traditionally,
These projects are chosen based on the authors'knowledge, experiences and/or involvement in the projects. The results of this analysis are presented in the following section. 3. 1. Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems (IRRIIS) A case study of the use of foresight
The experiences of the method development in the INNORISK case companies have been positive. Dominating feature in all cases has been that the top management of the companies has been involved actively in the development processes.
and technical risk analysis methods lies perhaps mostly on people's experience of using different methods in these two parallel traditions.
It is difficult to melt the experiences of the experts of different lines. Experts of their fields may not know deep enough the usage of the methods.
practices on the basis of European experience, VTT Research Notes, vol. 2174,2002,(in Finnish, abstract in English;
Technology assessment for managers, Routledge, London, 1998.12 R. Fairman, C. D. Mead, P. W. Williams, Environmental risk assessment approaches, experience and information sources, European Environment
Raija Koivisto has over twenty years experience in safety, security, risk assessment and foresight related research at VTT.
and has 35 years experience in futures research with governments, UN organizations, corporations, universities, and nonprofit organizations.
Section 4. 1 draws conclusions of the experiences and observable impacts of technology barometer as an instrument supporting innovation policy-making
Despite the political nature of these decision-making processes, the experience gained so far frombarometer clearly indicates that the instrument providing this kind of qualificationsmay influence
and gathered international and German experts with experience in implementing new or crosscutting issues. The purpose of the workshop was to discuss
On the basis of their personal experience, workshop participants were asked to rate the direct and indirect forms of scenario-based decision support both on a scale from 1 (very low) to 5 (very high) with regard to the specific relevance (importance)
and the skills and experience of those using the scenario outputs were regarded to be of critical importance.
and experiences of those carrying out the scenario exercise is the selection or negotiation of the scenario methodology.
More permanent institutional settings and organisational capacities are required to build up trust and experience create a learning framework to flexibly incorporate new advancements in knowledge,
and weaknesses of different institutional arrangements. 6. Conclusions There is no uniform experience of using scenario planning,
and Street 3 but much remains to be done capitalising wherever possible on the experience built up in the German Futur programme.
Direct experience and vigorous involvement are desired strongly in all their activities. Probably the most highly Inner-directed in the hierarchy and the most artistic and passionately involved with other people.
Weber et al. discusses the trade-offs between policy impacts of FTA with the experience gained from the innovation policy foresight
the experiences of Luxembourg are likely to be all too familiar, but the small size of Luxembourg also brings into sharp view many of the underlying tensions present in those foresight exercises that explicitly attempt to set national priorities.
the UK experience. Journal of Forecasting 22: 129 60. Keenan, M, . and I. Miles. 2008.
experiences from the innovation policy foresight and strategy process of the City of Vienna K. Matthias Weber a, Klaus Kubeczko a, Alexander Kaufmann a & Barbara Grunewald a a Austrian Institute of technology, Department Foresight
experiences from the innovation policy foresight and strategy process of the City of Vienna, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 953-969, DOI:
experiences from the innovation policy foresight and strategy process of the City of Vienna K. Matthiasweber*,Klaus Kubeczko, Alexander Kaufmann and Barbara Grunewald Austrian Institute of technology, Department Foresight and Policy development, Vienna
Finally, some generic lessons learned from the Viennese experience will be discussed. Keywords: foresight; strategy process; innovation policy; policy impact 1. Introduction In 2006, the City of Vienna initiated a far-reaching and open strategy process on the orientation of its future research, technology and innovation (RTI) policy.
This experience looks very much like a successful foresight process in terms of the impact it had and still has on policy and decision making,
and its key characteristtics The concluding section will synthesise some of the most interesting insights that could be gained from the experience of the project. 2. Framework for the impact assessment of foresight processes1 2. 1. Changing insights into processes of innovation and policy making
Smith 2002) draws our attention to various policy practices relying extensively on the knowledge, experience and competence of the different stakeholders concerned.
which the experiences and impacts of the innovation policy foresight of the City of Vienna will be assessed,
the experience of the process lends itself also to some more speculative observations regarding the medium-to long-term impacts of the foresight process. 5. 1. Immediate,
Experiences and practices of technology foresight in the European region. In Proceedings of the Foresight Summit, Budapest, 27 29 september 2007.
Their life experiences with public health and welfare are limited still rather compared to older social groups. In both respects they can be seen as counterparts to the usually implied preconditions for any participation in a future-oriented activity:
our experience indicates that just providing the analytical tools to information professionals is unlikely to lead to effective FTA applications.
and phases of the foresight process The delineation of foresight panels was an iterative process where the Core group explored some alternative rationales for choosing panel titles, even in view of international experiences,
In view of positive experiences, we believe that analogous approaches may be useful also in other contexts where expert panels are required to generate coherent and comprehensive foresight results in the presence of tight timeframes and high expectations.
experiences from the preparation of an international research program. Technological forecasting and Social Change 75, no. 4: 483 95.
the UK experience. Journal of Forecasting 22, no. 2 3: 129 60. Könnölä, T.,V. Brummer,
The experience of FTA suggests that then new term will only have currency in the space and time in
Experiences from the vertical R&i coordination between local, regional and (international levels provide insights into the challenges of managing multilayered innovation systems 23.
the UK experience, Journal of Forecasting 22 (2 3)( 2003) 129 160.34 B. R. Martin, R. Johnston, Technology foresight for Wiring up the National Innovation system.
Experiences in Britain, Australia, and New zealand, 1999.35 G. Grabher, D. Stark, Organizing diversity: evolutionary theory, network analysis and postsocialism, Regional Studies 31 (5)( 1997) 533 544.36 G. C. Unruh, Understanding carbon lock in, Energy Policy 28 (12)( 2000
but can also derive from personal experience, interpersonal networking sources, or conferences and symposia. Other ways of describing what we are looking for include:!
and those simply repackaged by promoters can take a considerable amount of time, discipline, and experience. An employee's first submission might concern a new microchip from Intel that is twice as fast as and half the size of its predecessor.
when the players have sufficient experience to know what kind and what level of discussion
Scanning experience on the part of participants is highly valuable for success with the scanning process. Learning what constitutes a good Scan abstract can take 6 months to a year of attending Scan meetings.
and experience to assist companies in creating their own internal K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1091 scanning systems.
That experience includes an awareness of the hurdles that companies typically face in attempting to implement scanning processes internally.
surveys and Delphi studies are reviewed in the light of experience. An important finding in relation to the interest of this paper is that a simple transfer of the methodologies to identify emerging science
the UK experience, Journal of Forecasting 22 (2003) 129 160.15 A. Rip, A j. Nederhof, Between dirigism and Laissez-faire:
experiences from the preparation of an international research program, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008) 483 495.36 M. Cariola, S. Rolfo, Evolution in the rationales of foresight in Europe
The experience of stakeholders‘‘overwrote''the methodological rigidity in some points. Exclusive The work was carried out among the project partners.
Generation of innovation ideas in Finnish Foresight Forumf 20 Informative Identification of future developments in nutrigenomics,(ii) health care and social services and (iii) services for the provision of personal experiences.
In practice, the technology foresight in Korea and China has borrowed lots of experiences from technology foresight projects in Japan. 3. 3. Priorities foresight (consensual perspectives
we consider that another relevant future avenue might be to enhance the international foresight collaboration in terms of exchange of experiences and the implementation of common foresight projects.
This means that it is possible to reflect upon the lessons provided by this experience,
what has and has worked not well over a series of FTA experiences, than on more systematic accumulation of data about comparable cases, varying in terms of specific features.
or individual experience) so that they can be retrieved and reused. They may be employed in later stages of a wider FTA PROCESS,
lists of areas of expertise and experience are created in order to allow people to locate relevant informants).
Experience is accumulating about the use of tools for mindmapping brainstorming, roadmapping, voting, and prioritisation in the course of scenario work, for example.
universities and business enterprises would it not be a useful addition to benefit from this expertise by developing a focused strategic discussion based around their experiences i e
years of experience, country of residence and affiliation;(3) 15 STEEP Categories for each domain of interest:
3. 1. 3. Further analysis Analysis of each of the Domains of Interest according to%distribution by years of experience, country of residence, affiliation;
J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 298 e g. do those with more years of experience tend to use greater differentiation in their scoring?
The respondents with more than 15 years of experience constituted the largest single group, comprising more than a quarter of the total of all respondents clear evidence of the substantial experience present at the FTA Conference.
There was also a balanced representation from 1 3 3 5 and 5 10()TD$FIG Fig. 3. Affiliation of respondents.
and how the EU countries in contrast to the EC Candidate countries have had now the experience
A balanced distribution is observed among the respondents with 1 3, 5 10 and over 15 years experience.
except the respondents with 10 15 years experience, who considered that about one third of drivers have low probability of occurrence.
Experience time horizon. As the years of experience increased, the time horizon for the occurrence of wild cards tended to remain between 2016 and 2025.
Respondents with no experience expected that the wild cards would occur after 2025, whereas the respondents with maximum 3 years of experience had a shorter time horizon (2008 2015).
Affiliation time horizon. Regarding the affiliation of participants, the time of occurrence for wild cards indicates parallelism between the respondents from Academia, Business and Other affiliations,
who have a medium term time horizon. While the time horizon for students and NGO respondents is longer,
years of experience and country of origin) demonstrates particular significance with respect to the differentiation and sophistication of responses.()
Over 33%of the discontinuities were defined by the respondents with over 15 years experience. Respondents with 5 10 years experience also contributed significantly (over 27%.
Experience time horizon. The respondents with a Foresight experience longer than 1 year expect most the majority of the weak signals to emerge in the medium term future (2016 2025),
1) trends and drivers by experience, country of residence and affiliation and also by responses on impact, likelihood, controversy and horizon time;(
and the variety of their experience and perspectives. A full list of the interviewees is provided in Annex 1. A video of the interviews can be accessed at http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2008/videos. html.*Corresponding author at:
Based on experience of formal evaluation of foresight programs, it was claimed that‘‘lack of success had very little to do with the quality of the work that has been done and much more to do with initial and subsequent political positioning''.
ideas and experience, and a stronger platform on which to promote the vital need of addressing the future to individuals at all levels
He has a broad experience in foresight and the analysis of innovation and research policy with a particular focus on the civil security sector.
Critical attitudes towards the projected outcomes of planning processes are fed surely by experiences with previous transportation projects,
or experiences with somewhat comparable situations pointing at the potential unintended effects. In general, however, the unintended effects emanating from this category are surprises or‘‘wild cards''.
and are built mostly on experience, anecdotical evidence and tacit knowledge (for example brainstorming or open space). Transport models show a certain slice or cut out of the web, with some selected nodes and the linkages between them.
and a general experience of applying foresight. Several new and practical implications for foresight techniques and their application are derived.
and the agents themselves adapt their behaviour based on past experiences: they interact in intricate ways that continually reshape their collective future.
and removing barriers to facilitating variation. 3. Study from past and current experiences and adapt as needed by reviewing what policy interventions would usefully create
experiences of using this methodology in the policy context are quite rare in the scientific literature.
This paper addresses this deficiency and presents experiences of one such case. These experiences should be of interest to those involved in long-range strategy planning.
Keywords Delphi method, Environmental politics, Government policy, Scenario planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Case study Introduction Since the 1990s each new Finnish government has prepared a comprehensive foresight report
The project team from FFRC consisted of five researchers, with experience both in methodologies applied in the exercise and in climate and energy issues.
experiences and specific knowledge. Territorial foresight offers noteworthy tangible benefits. First, it systematises the debate about future prospects for socioeconomic development amongst a wide variety of agents by building up plausible and coherent future visions.
and experience gathered over the last five years. These findings are grouped into two sets. The first group of findings relate to the advisability of changing the Spanish urban development model
particularly the sustainability assessments of technology, is prepared by decades of experiences with technology assessments. Consideration of the long term perspective
they all have their own ideas and assumptions, interpretations and examples, scientific approaches and experiences in the back of their head.
For that purpose it is proposed to fall back upon experiences with successful roadmapping exercises and to adapt the general concept of science
how the experiences with technology roadmapping in companies or industries can be adapted for our T. Fleischer et al./
On the other hand, there is some experience with similar doubts about the potential of technology roadmapping. In the words of Robert Galvin:
either a priori or from statistics of past experiences. When the distribution is known, the associated uncertainty is measurable
Cognitive science and human experience. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press. Von Hippel, E. 1976. The dominant role of users in the scientific instrument innovation process.
which individuals organise their experiences and choices, to be examined by psychological methods. Collective expectations, on the other hand, are available in public statemennts They are shared not in the sense that everyone accepts them as valid,
which aimed at enhancing the home cinema experience by generating lighting effects around the TV SET that match the video content,
and thus a more immersive viewing experience. At Siemens, too, foresight activities go beyond identifying emerging changes in technology
Given their prior experience in the chemical and automotive industries, they were able to directly address uncertainty regarding the evolution of the main components of the business and the impact on the organisation (effect uncertainty) and the best options for coping with these drivers (response uncertainty).
reward systems-Dialogue and conversations lead to individual discovery/learning-Teams Share experiences-Self-managing teamwork, high-performance teams in the net-Inclusive dialogue and active participation
Our experience with many data types and sets indicates that the use of the full similarity matrix is not necessary.
coupled with the tacit knowledge that comes from years of personal experience as experts in a technical field,
The systemic orientation was visible in the‘Russian doll'style of layered project structuure the project operated simultaneously on the layer of separate ICT applications, on the layer of ICT adoption in four fields (the experience
She has more than 20 years'experience in safety, security, risk assessment, and foresight-related research in VTT.
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