Synopsis:
Innovation: Innovation:
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and thereby encouraging widespread innovation in organisational responses to the challenges of the future. 6. Importing ideas As might be expected of a session dealing with new ideas on FTA there was a wide diversity of suggestions and issues presented.
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Innovation is seen as increasingly complex, interdependent and uncertain and therefore in need of broad and multidiscipplinar exploration and participation.
Decision-making in relation to innovation and new technology be it from a company's or from a public policy perspective, is confronted with the need to navigate increasingly complex decision landscapes.
and communication technologies has given rise to an internationalisation of research and innovation. This obviously makes the anticipation of future developments and their consequences more difficult than ever before.
complex and inherently uncertain character of innovation. This requires first of all that these approaches are based on
and reflect an appropriate understanding of the changing characteristics of innovation and decision-making. Secondly, they should contribute to the mobilisation and coordination of the decision-making by different actors.
The foresight tradition that has become quite prominent particularly in public policy takes into account the interactive character of innovation
This is done in the context of the third constituent, viz. a perspective on innovation as complex and largely unpredictable.
and are also able in turn to contribute to enhancing theoretic understanding of innovation. This said we do acknowledge that some innovation theorists are likely to skip much of Section 3
This dilemma mirrors the departure from a simple linear innovation model which we could observe during the past decades.
From a modern perspective on innovation it is on the contrary essential to accept that decision-makers are confronted with uncertainty
achievements and deficits In the light of insights from research on innovation and technological change, much foresight thinking and practice have struck us as somewhat over-simplistic and in particular over-optimistic in its hopes, e g. with respect to the ability to mobilise innovation system stakeholders to act
and bring it closer to a contemporary understanding of processes of innovation and technological change. Over the last ten to fifteen years
what we sometimes call conventional foresight has very much to do with the understanding of innovation as complex and interactive processes.
The even more traditional technology foresight standpoint developed from a more linear understanding of innovation does handle many of the challenges we discuss excellently (using best expert knowledge,
and services like fire protection, rather than in the context of innovation and technology development.)8 See in particular the online guide of the EU Forlearn project (http://forlearn. jrc. es/guide/0 home/index. htm),
Innovation, however, is not particularly like a fire in this regard. Rather innovation processes tend to be drawn-out affairs with big opportunities to learn
Turning more specifically to innovation and technology it must first be observed that many of the neat conceptual distinctions useful for,
e g. no innovation-oriented research programme can be sustained successfully for a longer period without skilful management.
the only thing we need to get innovation going is lower taxes; then multiple scenarios can help create useful variety.
when it comes to capturing the intricacies of innovation. Still, computer assistance for managing and navigating the complex information bases that adaptive planning necessitates should be a priority.
Pinter, London, 1980.2 K. M. Weber, The Neo-Schumpeterian element in the sociological analysis of innovation, in:
Report for Nordic Innovation Centre, Oslo, 2007.11 G. Best, G. Parston, J. Rosenhead, Robustness in practice:
Building the Nordic Research and Innovation Area in Hydrogen, Summary Report of Nordic H2 Energy Foresight project, Risoe National Laboratory, Risoe, 2005.481 E. A. Eriksson, K
Theory, Evidence and Policy, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2004.41 W. Polt, K. M. Weber, Forschung, Technologie und Innovation für Wohlstand in gesellschaftlicher Verantwortung.
Strategische Leitlinien Technology and innovation for wealth creation and societal responsibility. Strategic guidelines, Report to the Austrian Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology BMVIT, Vienna, 2007.42 City of Vienna, Wiener Strategie für Forschung, Technologie und
Innovation Vienna Strategy for Research, Technology and Innovation, Vienna, 2007.43 K. M. Weber, A. Geyer, D. Schartinger, P. Wagner, Zukunft der Mobilität in Österreich.
Konsequenzen für die Technologiepolitik, Research report, Austrian Research centres, Seibersdorf, 2002.44 C. Freeman Technology policy and Economic Performance:
Lessons from Japan, Pinter, London, 1987.45 B.-A. Lundvall (Ed.),National systems of Innovation, Towards a Theory of innovation and Interactive learning, Pinter, London, 1992.46 A. Bergek, S. Jacobsson, B
Nordic and European future-oriented projects in defence, security, energy and transportation, typically with innovation and major investment decisions as important aspects.
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which is a variant of the Robust Portfolio Modeling (RPM) methodology for the analysis of innovation ideas and innovative concepts 9, 10,18, 19.
insights from the fostering of innovation ideas, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 74 (5)( 2007) 608 626.10 J. Liesiö, P. Mild, A. Salo, Preference programming for Robust Portfolio Modeling and project selection, Eur.
Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Technical Report EUR-20137-EN, Seville, 2002.12 H. Prange, Technology and innovation policiers in the European systemofmulti-level
and evaluation activities, including the joint foresight project Finnsight 2015 of the Academy of Finland and the National Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation (Tekes),
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Methodologies and selected applications Knut Blind Regulation and Innovation Competence Center Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research, Germany Berlin University of Technology, Faculty Economics and Management
, Chair of Innovation Economics, VWS 2, Müller-Breslau-Str. D-10623 Berlin, Germany Received 28 september 2006;
Economics and Management, Chair of Innovation Economics, VWS 2, Müller-Breslau-Str. D-10623 Berlin, Germany.
but also emerging technologies, sectors or markets in order to shape pro-actively innovation-promoting regulatory framework conditions, which are crucial for the competitiveness of national or regional innovation systems.
matching policy instruments and methodologies Innovation surveys Econometric models Control group approaches Cost benefit analysis Expert panels/peer review Field/case studies Network analysis Foresight/Technology assessment
Benchmarking Financing R&d Provision of R&d infrastructure Technology transfer and innovation diffusion Legal frameworks (IPRS, standards and regulation) Integrated projects Networks of excellence Methodology:
Whereas the first methodology in Table 1 is focused too narrowly on innovation surveys2, in this section we cover surveys
the results of the surveys conducted within the framework of the Community Innovation Survey also contain information about regulations and standards as obstacles for innovation and sometimes their role as source for information.
especially regarding the promotion of innovation 21. Another large-scale study was conducted in The netherlands by Meeus et al. 30,
then measurement and testing standards and only later in the innovation cycle quality, safety and compatibility standards are required.
or constrain innovation? In: The Empirical Economics of Standards. Department of Trade and Industry (ed.),London, pp. 76 120,2005.
Proceedings of the 3rd IEEE Conference on Standardisation and Innovation in Information technology, 2003, pp. 27 35, Delft. 24 H. Grupp, The Foundations of the Economics of Innovation theory, Measurement and Practice
, Research policy, vol. 31 (7), 2002, pp. 1141 1161.27 K. Koch, M. Rafiquzzaman, S. Rao, The Impact of Regulatory policies on Innovation:
Labour Market Institutions, Product Market Regulation, and Innovation: Cross country Evidence, ECO/WKP (2002) 2, OECD (ed.),Paris. 29 U. Blum, A. Töpfer, G. Eickhoff,
and holds the chair on Innovation Economics at the Berlin University of Technology since 2006. In addition he is head of the competence center Regulation and Innovation of the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research.
Since more than ten years he is conducting studies both in the area of technology foresight, but also in the fields of standards, regulation and intellectual property rights on behalf of the European commission and Ministries in Germany and other countries. 516 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516
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Tilo Propp b a Department of Science, Technology, Health and Policy Studies, University of Twente, Enschede, The netherlands b Department of Innovation and Environmental sciences, University of Utrecht, Utrecht
10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.02.002 1. Lacunae and prospects of assessment and alignment tools for emerging science and technology For innovation to succeed actor alignment in the form of innovation chains from laboratory to products
This is the case with incremental innovation in established technological paradigms. For new and emerging fields of science and technology (S&t) where architectural (radical innovations might occur 1,
Many networks and platforms have dedicated working groups or programmes on foresight, strategic planning and anticipation of societal and ethical hurdles to innovation based on emerging technologies.
'by linking up with a number of different fields a number of new innovations are enabled 23.
Literature in the management of innovation, expectations management and sociology-of-technology fields has stressed repeatedly that for assessments during early stages of technological emergence, more‘open-ended'
because products/applications would need a high degree of coordination to enable integration of a large number of technology innovations into a platform
however innovations in terms of products are few and far between. The long term aim is to package MPM as a strategic support system for start-up (and more mature) companies.
the company can switch towards roadmapping for incremental innovation. Before delving into the context of lab-on-a-chip for cell analysis we explore what the literature can tell us with regards to insights into emerging path dynamics stemming from sociology of S&t, evolutionary economics and organization studies.
we delve into the innovation context by setting the scene for the multi-path mapping exercise.
The DC-3 aircraft in the 1930s was the template for over 20 years for innovation in aircraft design around piston powered planes with metal skin and low wings.
The forward-propelling dynamics of incremental innovation act as a disincentive or even boundary to radical options.
Fig. 2. Broader innovation issues of the transition from research lab to company in the single cell analysis innovation chain. 524 D. K. R. Robinson,
which we have diagnosed in Section 3 a gap in innovation of full experimental integration and evolution into and integrated platform.
These scenarios in themselves contained reliable information on the current situation and selected prospective chronologies of innovations in cell-on-a-chip (rather than possible choices to go for.
as well as a funnel for innovations coming from university research. Thus such a heterogeneous cluster would centre around university research and fabrication facilities18,
On the other hand, advantages of such an approach are that new innovations will be occurring within the cluster
For innovation 4 however this can be handled if there is one system integrator which targets a specific application
The IP issue can be generalised to many projected nanotechnology innovations where technologies cannot be products in themselves
which can in themselves be turned into innovations. 23 This also a general issue in relation to the current situation of strategic science and application oriented research. 532 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting
cell analysis based medical diagnostics could be driven by MNC based innovation, SME based innovation, etc.
References 1 W. J. Abernathy, K. B. Clark, Innovation: Mapping the Winds of Creative Destruction, Res.
Currently he is at Utrecht University, Department of Innovation and Environmental Studies, where he analyzes genetics/genomics based innovation chains and actor strategies in the converging zone of the food and health sectors. 538 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change
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a group of factors leading to innovation-based growth; and a group consisting of what is needed to escape
because knowledge-based economic growth is considered typically to be dependent on innovation. This in turn reveals the importance not only of technological innovations,
ambiguity and unpredictability have to be nurtured as wellsprings of creativity and innovation. It calls for the establishment of an environment that encourages risk taking
which is held generally to improve the prospects for successful innovation. In parallel, knowledge and skills, are acquired through a variety of learning processes.
and through these to support for innovation-based growth; The alignment of actors'interests, their active participation in dealing with uncertainty, the development of informed publics and, through all of these, to the evolution of strategies to cope with
Supporting innovation-based growth Achievement of long-term reform of the productive system through a raised emphasis on high technology Making the case for increased investment in R&d More informed STI priorities
and extensive media promotion that raised the profile of science, technology and innovation on the national agenda.
Social capital and networking and through these to greater support for innovation-based growth; The alignment of actors'interests, their active participation in dealing with uncertainty, the development of informed publics and, through all of these, to the evolution of strategies to cope with
Foresight as a Tool for the Management of Knowledge Flows and Innovation (FORMAKIN), Final report under the TSER Programme Stage II, 2001.5 H. Cameron, L. Georghiou, M. Keenan,
She has 10-year experience in policy development and analysis in the field of research and innovation.
and provide advice to innovation policymakers and administrators. Previous affiliations include the Science policy Research Unit (SPRU) at Sussex University,
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which the European research and Innovation Area can evolve. Third, skipping the national level, futures are built for the universities themselves,
The European research and Innovation Area (ERIA) and universities; Trends and drivers for changes; Multilevel governance 1. Introduction The first universities emerged as responses to the need to harness the expanding intellectual forces of the era to the increasingly demanding knowledge requirements of the surrounding society
and economy in the 12th to 15th century in Europe as this major institutional innovation is described by P. A. David, masked in the language of our contemporary discussions of university research and training policies 1,
as the broadest socioeconomic context for universities, with its own science, technology and innovation (STI) policy tools,
It is followed by futures for the European research and Innovation Area (ERIA), 5 as the more immediate surroundings for universities,
and Innovation Area can evolve in different directions, depending on the main features of the EU to a significant extent,
producing and validating new scientific knowledge. 11 From the point of viewofr&dand innovation (RTDI) processes, they have focussed on twomain activities:
(and innovation) projects at a global level and an EU level, as none of the Triad regions let alone individual countries can be self-sufficient.
and (c) can hamper innovation efforts of firms; see, e g. 1, 22,42. 567 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 3. Stronger, better articulated needs for multi-(trans;
Then the European research and Innovation Area (ERIA) is taken into account as a‘mezzo level'system.
as well as to the wide range of policies required to promote innovation. Fourth, cohesion is an issue for (a large,
One of the specific guidelines is to improve the knowledge and innovation for growth. More specific areas of interventions include:
facilitate innovation and promote entrepreneurship. 570 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 vis-à-vis competitiveness;
considering different future states first for the EU and the European research and Innovation Area, and then for universities themselves.
and on the‘mission'of the European 578 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 Innovation and Research area are made in a transparent and conscious way.
References 1 P. A. David, Europe's Universities and Innovation Past, Present and Future, SIEPR Discussion paper No. 06-10,2006. 2 EC, The role of universities in the Europe
Current Trends and Challenges for the Near future, Final Report, EC DG Research Unit RTD-K. 2 october, 2002.8 LERU, Universities and Innovation:
Technicalchange and Economic theory, Pinter, London, 1988.11 C. Edquist (Ed.),Systems of Innovations: Technologies, Institutions and Organizations, Pinter, London, 1997.12 J. Fagerberg, D c. Mowery, R. R. Nelson (Eds.
The Oxford Handbook of Innovation, Oxford UP, Oxford, 2005.13 C. Freeman, The economics of technical change:
Basic science and Technological innovation, Brookings Institution Press, Washington, D c.,1997 26 E. von Hippel, The Sources of Innovation, Oxford UP, Oxford, 1988.27 M. Akrich, R. Miller
of Key Research actors in the European research area, 2005.29 H. Etzkowitz, L. Leysdorff, The dynamics of innovation:
He has participated in a number of international research projects on STI policies, innovation and transition, as well as on foresight and prospective analyses, been a member of several EU expert groups on foresight,
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Future-oriented technology analysis Impacts and implications for policy and decision making The unfolding acceleration of global innovation is expected to become the hallmark of the first half of the 21st century.
such as, research and innovation, security and sustainability. The best papers presented in this conference are published in four different scientific journals
innovation are encountered and revealed. The selection of papers provides the practitioners of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA innovation policy development and others inclined toward the provocation of innovation an opportunity to learn some new approaches as well as to reflect further upon some familiar tools such as risk assessment being profiled re within the new context of FTA.
In this way the issue also contributes to an evolving tool bag of diverse and enhanced tools for societally useful global innovation.
The papers and technical notes assembled from the 2008 FTA Conference were selected carefully and further nurtured to bring out three key themes:
adopt and engage novel approaches that will address innovation challenges and change the outlook of many policy makers;
what will be the next internet innovations? enables a probability model to be constructed that anticipates novel combinations of technologies.
The paper makes a convincing case for how one needs new tools to enable effective international positioning for comparative understanding about national innovation ability and performance.
This well designed process breaks new ground in being concerned explicitly with enabling foresight as a sustainability asset for Germany's status as a R&d-innovation leader with specific elements also aimed at four innovative targets:
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which to participate in this anticipated new mode of innovation. Given the imperative of new conduct in innovation,
so the authors argue, it is necessary for responsive organizations to restructure themselves to exploit this knowledge environment.
Rather, the paper argues that regardless of the particular institutional organizations of innovation which emerge,
It may be that the various browsers become closely associated with specific innovations in media technology. 4. 3. Interpreting the results Fig. 6 does not label the parent nodes with probabilities because of graphic visibility concerns.
and Clark 29, is predicated on external sources of innovation. Certainly, this is the class of technological innovations
We suggest that innovation researchers incorporate this new concept into their theories and case studies. 6. Interpretations from the philosophy and sociology of science The hierarchical random graph is one possible model of science, technology and innovation data.
A more fundamental question is whether such a model is consistent with what is postulated about the sociology and epistemology of science.
it is not possible to recommend the appropriate form of social organization to enhance innovation. Despite the apparent promise of this approach, the method has only been tried on a single case with limited validation.
undiscovered linkages may be valuable new innovations worthy of research and development. Undocumented linkages may simply reflect out of date source materials.
, Gordon & Breach, New york, 1988.9 J. Terninko, A. Zusman, B. Zlotin, Systematic innovation: an introduction to TRIZ, Florida:
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especially in contexts that are otherwise rather averse with regard to innovation 8. Foresight methodologies should therefore not only inform the identification of future context conditions
In corporate contexts, innovation oriented foresight focuses on long term product development strategies or market prospects. Here, foresight is geared towards‘exploration'of longer term strategies in innovation management 31.
Mannermaa 22 emphasizes its role for increasing the scope of strategic alternatives in order to allow for exploring consequences of impossible strategies,
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whereas in foresight exercises the positive developments like innovation possibilities has Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 Corresponding author.
and research on societal embedding of innovations and new technologies provide some further insights that contribute to the paper.
and policy from linear to systemic innovation models has challenged the conventional technocratic and technology oriented forecasstin practices and called for new participatory and systemic foresight approaches 3. Also the R&d functions are moving from the basic science
and technology push driven innovation processes to the systemic innovations that emerge close to the market 4. Consequently,
In this methodology, the concept of risk iswidened to consider the risks in the innovation processesmay these be either intra-corporate R&dor highly distributed
Group (Cofi) of Åbo Akademi Finland and VTT Technical research Centre of Finland financed by the Finnish funding agency for technology and Innovation (TEKES.
opportunities, threats and weaknesses of the new innovation. In INNORISK project PPA (Potential Problem analysis) is seen as an example of a brainstorming method that can be used to explode the prevailing mind-set in the opportunity recognition and analysis 29.
Policy 1 (1)( 2004) 4 32.4 K. Smith, Innovation as a systemic phenomenon: rethinking the role of policy, Enterp.
Managing commercialisation risks in innovation development: linking front end and commercialisation. In: K. R. E. Huizingh, M. Torkkeli, S. Conn and I. Bitran (eds.
Her special interest lies in enhancing innovations provoked by societal concerns for wellbeing of the aging society and for cleaner environment.
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promote innovation, and hopefully improve decisions which incorporate its findings. Thus, these frontiers will serve as important orientation in the elaboration of the second edition of Futures research methodology 2. 1 (CD-ROM) to be published by American Council for the United nations University early in 2005.
He is the innovator of several methods of futures research and author of several books and hundreds of articles dealing with the future research methodology, space, and innovation.
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Along with increasing significance of innovation in socioeconomic development grows the need to utilize future-oriented knowledge in innovation policy-making.
and methodology Technology barometer is a societal indicator instrument with a strong emphasis on the innovation environment.
and dynamics into the analysis. The framework enables the structural comparisons of entire economies, their individual industrial sectors, related R&d and innovation intensities,
In the knowledge-value society, innovation, technology development, economic regeneration, openness to new ideas, and their active exploitation, are all inherent elements contributing to the basic values and culture of the society.
and venturing, innovation networking, and adaptations of innovative practices in a nation. In addition to the three development phases of a modern society, technology barometer considers sustainable development as a fourth object of analysis,
the changing role of knowledge-intensive work, innovations and business, and education structures. The first extensive societal issue relates to the role of knowledge-intensive work in Finnish society
The second themeof discussion ismore comprehensive and concerns the future development of innovation and business activities.
the identification of innovation is not a straightforward process for the businesses involved. Unfolding the definition of innovation
and trans-illuminating its meaning and significance at the company level could help businesses identify the various phases of the innovation process,
the technology barometer has proven to be capable of casting additional light on bottlenecks and problem areas within the national innovation environment in Finland.
and its results can be utilized as an aid and support for long-term decisions concerning science, technology, innovation and education.
Recent relatively radical changes of Finnish innovation policy are challenging data basis and indicators of research and innovation,
The scope of innovation policywill be changed strongly towards demand-oriented direction, meaning that themore important role in policywill be given for consumer and user aspects in innovation process.
This change will be promoted also by organizational changes in the public administration of innovation. Moreover the scope of innovation in policy-making will be extended from technological innovation merely towards business innovations and behavioural, organizational and different social innovations.
This development naturally raises new research questions and needs new data and novel indicators to be included in the barometer.
Moreover, the process of developing Finnish national strategic centres for science, technology and innovation is underway in the technology fields with future importance for businesses and the society.
in order to grasp and understand the wider systemic challenges of the innovation practices. One new approach to be integrated in the barometer structure in the future can be oriented the future concept of impact assessment
) Employment Index (Storrie and Bjurek) Innovation/technology Summary Innovation Index (EC) Networked Readiness Index (CID) National Innovation Capacity Index (Porter and Stern) Investment
and Research Coordinator of innovation and innovation policy studies at VTT. His recent research work is related to the rationales of innovation policy, foresight of technologies (e g. transition towards sustainable energy systems), intellectual property rights,
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or are transferred already to innovations in 10 years'time were excluded from the lists of topics to be considered.
An online survey among experts from the German innovation landscape was performed in September 2008 in order to get broader assessment on the topics,
They have to be differentiated from a more specific definition of research alliances and innovation alliances like those
Its preparation learned from innovation and from foresight studies 22 27 and took into account knowledge from 15 years of foresight in Germany and internationally 4, 5, 6, 17,21, 28 31.
An Attitudinal Perspective, Technological forecasting and Social Change, vol. 25,1984, pp. 281 292.16 K. Cuhls, K. Blind, H. Grupp, Innovations for our future.
new foresight on science and technology, Technology, Innovation and Policy, Series of the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research ISI no. 13, Physica, Heidelberg, 2002.17 Bundesministerium für Forschung und
, H. Grupp, Innovations for our future. Delphi'98: new foresight on science and technology, Technology, Innovation and Policy, Series of the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research ISI no. 13, Physica, Heidelberg, 2002.30 Science and Technology foresight Center, Ministry
of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), in: National Institute of Science and Technology policy (NISTEP (Ed.),Comprehensive analysis of Science and Technology Benchmarking and Foresight report no. 99, Tôkyô:
Kerstin Cuhls is coordinator of the business area Foresight and Futures research in the Competence Center Innovation and Technology management and Foresight at the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research in Karlsruhe, Germany.
Philine Warnke is scientific project manager in the Competence Center Innovation and Technology management and Foresight at the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research in Karlsruhe, Germany.
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